Alexei Navalny | Has died in prison, according to the Russian prison service

WPMUFC

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Highly detailed article. Well worth the read.

We have detailed the research methodology for this investigation into a separate article. You can read it here.

  • In a previous series of investigations, Bellingcat uncovered evidence that Russia’s military intelligence agency – the GRU – was responsible for both the Novichok poisoning of Sergey and Yulia Skripal in the U.K. (an assassination attempt that led to the death of one British citizen) and the poisoning of Emilian Gebrev in Bulgaria. We also determined that Russia’s principal security agency – the FSB – was behind the assassination of a Georgian asylum seeker on German soil.
  • In a further joint investigation, Bellingcat uncovered evidence that Russia has not terminated its chemical weapons program, but has instead disguised its development capability behind a network of state-run institutes. Following the official closure of Russia’s military-run chemical weapons program in 2010, its core scientists were rehired by institutes which engage in ostensibly civilian research. In reality, these scientists continued to provide chemical weapons development and manufacturing support to Russia’s security services.
  • We identified two institutes which since 2010 appear to have taken the lead role in the continued R&D of Soviet-era nerve-agent programs, including those of the Novichok type. These institutes – the St Petersburg-based GNII VM and the Moscow-based SC Signal – were shown to have been in close communication with GRU operatives linked to the two overseas assassination attempts using military-grade toxins. SC Signal, formally engaged in developing sports nutrition drinks, appears to have focused research into nano-encapsulation; a relatively new technology that could permit a lethal toxin to be “packaged” within a veneer of another substance, allowing both obfuscation and delayed onset of the poison.
  • On 20 August 2020, Russian opposition activist Alexey Navalny collapsed into a coma during a flight from the Siberian city of Tomsk to Moscow, resulting in an emergency landing and his hospitalization in the town of Omsk. Local doctors and medical specialists flown in from Moscow claimed that they found no signs of severe poisoning. Two days later, Navalny was evacuated to the German Charite hospital where he was promptly diagnosed with severe poisoning with a cholinesterase inhibitor. A German military laboratory, two independent European labs and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) all identified the toxin as a nerve agent belonging to the Novichok group. The OPCW identified the toxin as a cholinesterase inhibitor structurally resembling the known Novichok variants, but one that was not included in the list of banned nerve agents updated after the Skripal poisoning in 2018. This implied that the agent used on Navalny was of a more recent, previously unknown type.
  • The U.S. and European governments have blamed the Russian government, and in particular the FSB, for Navalny’s near-fatal poisoning. Russia has repeatedly denied the accusation and claims that the opposition figure had no traces of nerve agents in his body while in Russia, and that if he was poisoned with a Novichok-type nerve agent, this must have happened after he left Russian territory.
  • No law enforcement agency in any country is currently investigating the poisoning of Alexey Navalny.
 

Foxbatt

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I won't trust the Bellingcat. I trust the CIA, and other state agencies. These are cowboys who have no knowledge or experience.
Anyone on CAF can do the same thing.
 

harms

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How do these guys get all the information?
It all should be there. There's a law in Russia that requires mobile operators to store all of the digital data from phone calls & data exchange — ironically, to prevent terrorism. And of course there's a black market for that data. They've compared phone records with plane tickets & reservations (also taken from a black market, obviously) and got a very detailed picture of what happened.

I won't trust the Bellingcat. I trust the CIA, and other state agencies. These are cowboys who have no knowledge or experience.
Anyone on CAF can do the same thing.
:lol:
 

harms

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It's all circumstantial evidence, of course. A group of FSB officers with medical and chemical training follows Navalny around the country for 3,5 years, regularly contacting people from the science centre "Signal" in Moscow that were previously in contact with Salisbury killers.
 

WPMUFC

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I wish the chaps at bellingcat all the best in not "accidentally" spilling polonium on their xmas dinner
You should have a listen to their MH17 podcast series. These guys get so much info out of Russia.

https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/podcasts/2019/07/17/mh17-episode-guide-1/

and Putins response to Bellingcat

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Thursday that opposition politician Alexey Navalny "is enjoying the support of the US special services," adding that if Russian special services had wanted to kill him they would have "finished it."


Putin claimed without evidence that Navalny -- whom he referred to as "this patient in the Berlin clinic" -- is being supported by US intelligence services, adding, "if that's correct, then that's interesting, then of course [our] special services need to keep an eye on him."
"But that doesn't mean he needs to be poisoned, who needs him anyway? If [they] wanted to, they would've probably finished it," Putin added. "But in this case, his wife asked me, and I immediately gave the order to let him out of the country to be treated in Germany... This is a trick to attack the leaders [in Russia]."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/17/europe/putin-annual-press-conference-intl/index.html


ALSO how Bellingcat got the info

https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2020/12/14/navalny-fsb-methodology/
 

ZupZup

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I can’t believe Navalny called one of the agents who had been following him pretending to be the Russian Security Council investigating why the assassination had gone wrong... and the guy spilt the tea!

This whole thing is going to make an excellent Netflix documentary.
 

harms

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Yeah, this is certainly the best (albeit a very, very dark) comedy of the 2020. Not sure if their call is already translated to English? Probably so, it’s more than worth listening to :lol:
 

Rajma

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That was amazing, he’s such a good communicator. Russian FSB are shadow of the former KGB, complete morons.
 

VorZakone

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That was amazing, he’s such a good communicator. Russian FSB are shadow of the former KGB, complete morons.
It really demystifies the FSB aura, doesn't it?

By the way, the KGB had its bad moments too.
 

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Yeah, this is certainly the best (albeit a very, very dark) comedy of the 2020. Not sure if their call is already translated to English? Probably so, it’s more than worth listening to :lol:
Yes, the whole thing is available here:


Amazing really. What a job to have for that FSB guy (not the poisoner but the cleaner in this case, apparently; but all the same). And how weird that Navalny got him to disclose everything just by faking his phone number and using the voice of authority. That's the company culture, I guess!
 

harms

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And how weird that Navalny got him to disclose everything just by faking his phone number and using the voice of authority. That's the company culture, I guess!
There are so many jokes on the matter.

— Launch the nukes
— Are you sure? Why are you calling me on a non-secure line?
— It’s okay. The boss has cleared it
— Well, if that’s the case...
 

Adisa

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Regardless of how Russia spins it, it's embarrassing. Can't even murder someone properly.
 

Mr Pigeon

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This guy is a mad man, why in the ever lasting feck return to your imminent arrest and/or death.
Maybe they threatened his wife? Or maybe he knows they'll just try and kill him again so at least this way he gets to go out on his own terms. Either way he's a proper Billy Big Bollocks.
 

VeevaVee

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This is the third time they’ve failed to kill someone with that poison. Is it intended that way? Bit shit otherwise isn’t it?
 

harms

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This is the third time they’ve failed to kill someone with that poison. Is it intended that way? Bit shit otherwise isn’t it?
Who knows how many kills were successful — and that’s the point of those.
 

harms

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Maybe they threatened his wife? Or maybe he knows they'll just try and kill him again so at least this way he gets to go out on his own terms. Either way he's a proper Billy Big Bollocks.
Nah, he always was going to return, it certainly isn’t something forced on him by Putin. He obviously understands the consequences — I’m guessing this is him trying to push the nation for a move? Not sure how successful it will be (I, sadly, doubt that it will), but you can’t deny his insane dedication to the cause.
 

harms

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Also a few details — an airport that he was supposed to flew in denied his plane landing, multiple people that gathered there to greet him were arrested and the plane landed in another airport, where he was detained/arrested at the passport control.

The original airport later twitted that they’ve already greeted planes from Germany “accordingly” in 1941 and they were happy to do that again. Just to add another layer to this surreal situation, the airplane’s company name is Pobeda (Victory) —after the victory in the WW2.
 

harms

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Very high profile failures though. You’d think they could make something that would guarantee it.
Yeah. The one thing I've learned some time ago is to not try to logically explain the doings of Russian government/FSB/police and Putin himself.
The main thing is that the evidence is quite overwhelming at this point.
 

The Firestarter

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Nah, he always was going to return, it certainly isn’t something forced on him by Putin. He obviously understands the consequences — I’m guessing this is him trying to push the nation for a move? Not sure how successful it will be (I, sadly, doubt that it will), but you can’t deny his insane dedication to the cause.
What is the sentiment in Russia regarding Navalny? I understand it is difficult to get a sense of it due to all the misinformation.
 

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Continued wumming the Russian judicial system after being in custody. Balls of steel I tell ya...

 

The Firestarter

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Continued wumming the Russian judicial system after being in custody. Balls of steel I tell ya...

Apparently there is a genetic disorder that causes people to stop experiencing fear: Urbach-Wiethe disease.
 

Raoul

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Apparently there is a genetic disorder that causes people to stop experiencing fear: Urbach-Wiethe disease.
He probably knows it will be hard for them to do anything to him with the global spotlight on the case at the moment. It would be an obvious PR disaster for Putin.

They had their chance of him appearing to have been "inadvertently poisoned in some random city" last summer and will probably need to wait a while to try again.

Putin also has to deal with Biden becoming President where he will get called out for human rights abuses again, which hasn't happened in 4 years.
 

The Firestarter

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He probably knows it will be hard for them to do anything to him with the global spotlight on the case at the moment. It would be an obvious PR disaster for Putin.

They had their chance of him appearing to have been "inadvertently poisoned in some random city" last summer and will probably need to wait a while to try again.

Putin also has to deal with Biden becoming President where he will get called out for human rights abuses again, which hasn't happened in 4 years.
I really don't see why Putin will care for any of this, unless there is a palpable resistance in Russia. I don't suspect this is the case save for some big cities. But better for some of the posters actually living there to comment.
Also I dont find unlikely the option of Navalny being transferred to a prison and suffering a fatal "incident" there.
 

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I really don't see why Putin will care for any of this, unless there is a palpable resistance in Russia. I don't suspect this is the case save for some big cities. But better for some of the posters actually living there to comment.
Also I dont find unlikely the option of Navalny being transferred to a prison and suffering a fatal "incident" there.
If it were that easy, he would've done it a long time ago. Fortunately, its not so simple given that Navalny has a massive following and martyring him would only spur more anti-government demonstrations, which is why its easier to contain him through harassment and periodic visits to jail. As with Nemsov, killing Navalny will have to look accidental or as a result of a random murder on the streets, as opposed to something organized by the government.
 

The Firestarter

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If it were that easy, he would've done it a long time ago. Fortunately, its not so simple given that Navalny has a massive following and martyring him would only spur more anti-government demonstrations, which is why its easier to contain him through harassment and periodic visits to jail. As with Nemsov, killing Navalny will have to look accidental or as a result of a random murder on the streets, as opposed to something organized by the government.
If they can blatantly eliminate Nemsov they can do absolutely the same with Navalny. You don't think that anyone in Russia believes it was accidental, right ?
 

Raoul

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If they can blatantly eliminate Nemsov they can do absolutely the same with Navalny. You don't think that anyone in Russia believes it was accidental, right ?
Its not the belief that it wasn’t accidental - it’s the perception that it wasn’t blatant, given that it was done by Chechen proxies. Same with the poisoning - we weren’t supposed to know he was poisoned by Novichok since he was supposed to be dead and no medical reports allowed to be made public as to why. To the public, it should’ve just looked like someone falling ill and passing away. That’s different than overtly sending him someone to jail and having them murdered there.
 

The Firestarter

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Its not the belief that it wasn’t accidental - it’s the perception that it wasn’t blatant, given that it was done by Chechen proxies. Same with the poisoning - we weren’t supposed to know he was poisoned by Novichok since he was supposed to be dead and no medical reports allowed to be made public as to why. To the public, it should’ve just looked like someone falling ill and passing away. That’s different than overtly sending him someone to jail and having them murdered there.
I agree that if the poison had not been traced it would have had plausible deniability. However, the Nemsov assassination , proxies or not, was very blatant in my opinion and more of a statement . Political dissidents don't just get randomly gunned down in the middle of Moscow.

Btw, a prison incident has much more deniability than that. Mental health issues, sleeping guards, whatever.