Nearly 1.5million people play football, only 180 will make it to the Premier League.

[Dirty Schwein]

Some stories from my past:

I played with Curtis Davies back in the day. Was no surprise to see him make it. Was head and shoulders above everyone else in either team.

I also played with James Tomkins. Not sure how he made it. He wasn't even the best defender in his team let alone the best player. He seemed bang average and suddenly I see him on Match of the Day!

One of my best mates had an invitation to try out at Aston Villa. This guy was phenomenal on the pitch. The P.E. teacher (not OGS) called in every favour he had to get a scout to come watch him play. His parents refused to sign the consent, saying "Asians don't make it in football". He's now a miserable accountant for a railway film

Another guy at my college made such a big wave that he attracted the Spurs scouts, who offered him a trial with them. But the college coach (a guy named Butch ) decided that he's the player's agent and started demanding random shit like a house for his family and a private plane to travel in... needless to say, Spurs pulled their offer and the poor guy (the player, not Butch) is now a Carphone Warehouse salesman

My younger brother played with Dele Alli, I've met him a few times when he was younger. Pure talent. Knew he'd make it. Hopefully he gets his career back on track (away from Spurs).

 

[11101]

People underestimate what it takes to get to the top of football. It's nonsense when people try to belittle those who make it. Anybody can ping a 50 yard pass once, that's why you get these stories like 'my mate once nutmegged Wayne Rooney', but to do it 50 times in a row takes talent, years of dedication, and practice.

I've played with quite a few over the years who made careers in football, either in the PL, or in lower leagues and random other countries. Getting to a high level and maintaining it consistently is what separates those who make it from those who don't, it takes a lot of hard work and talent but there is a bit of luck too. Most gifted striker I ever played with broke his leg in the Arsenal academy at 17 and was let go after a dodgy recovery. Never seen anybody who could shoot like him, but he'd lost the rest of his game and ended up getting benched in my team for a guy who couldn't hit a barn door but was like a fecking machine in every other way. No way that guy was a more talented player but he is in the Danish Superliga now and the first one sells watches in New York.


That does all go out of the window for the proper stars though. I played in a tournament with a young Jack Grealish and he was on another stratosphere. I don't see how he could have ever failed to make it.

 

[Lay]

Wow that’s pretty high, like Yao Ming I always thought he was pretty bad player but got baskets because he was so big.

I guess you have a lot of small guys to kyrie, Nash, Nate, Walker etc

Really underrating Yao there. He was a really good player

 

[Lay]

I’ve played with an old Oxford United player back when they were a top flight or near top flight team. His career ended a couple of weeks before they played Man United due to a broken leg.

Even at 50 he was fecking incredible. Even in goal he was by far the best and we had a few semi pro players playing. One had trials at QPR before his career ended due to off field reasons.

Also played with a Nigerian guy who played for a Greek side. Unreal player. My proudest footballing moment was scoring a hat trick, with him also banging in 3 in the only time we played upfront together

 

[Bilbo]

I'm friends with Dwight Gayle and we always thought he was too small to ever make it but he's had a fine career

Also met a guy named Jamie Sterry on holiday a couple of years ago. On Newcastles books. He was unbelievably talented with the ball and in great shape, but his career seems to be petering out.

 

[littlepeasoup]

Definitely fine margins about some pros reaching the Prem. For some it'll be, right place, right time for sure.

 

[Sandikan]

I played against Andy Cole’s son once. He was on City’s books at the time. Honestly, he was shit. One of my mates who was working in Tesco at the time was better than him.

On the flip side, I've played against guys who were only semi pro and they were a different stratosphere of quality.

 

[Acole9]

One lad I knew played with Jonjo Shelvey. He said he'd play for United or Arsenal one day. Wasn't far off to be fair.

 

[TrustInOle]

Played professionally/semi professionally until 21 but there’s just that line that if you cross it you’ve ‘made it’ so many fall just short for one reason or another.

Honestly couldn’t say Welbeck, Walcott, Rose, and some other PL players I played against were so much better at the time.

I remember playing in a PL under 16 tournament based at the Stadium of Light in Sunderland. They had Richard Keys, Andy Gray and Alan Shearer at the launch. Was really good to be fair. Everton won the tournament and their no10 won player of the tournament. He was unreal, funnily enough I was in the same Everton academy with him from 6-10 years of age. He later disagreed with Moyes over a haircut and after playing in Scotland just fizzled out. Still makes me laugh at how he didn’t make it. Just shows it’s about taking your chances at the right time I guess!!

My only experience I can remember, was playing Welbeck in one of the school cups, can't remember which one, but we were playing Trinity, drawing 2-2 with about 15-20 mins left to go. Welbeck comes on and scores with a brilliant run when he first gets the ball, and finishes the game with hat trick. Our coach/ Gym teacher told us after that he was brought through United's academy, kept my ear open ever since and was a shame he didn't make it.
But, my word, you could see a clear difference in level when he came on, bearing I mind we were 14 maybe 15.

 

[Trequarista10]

You'd be surprised at how those "dross" are much much better than the average amateur footballer.

This x100. I've played with and against numerous players who were in the academy system, a few of whom had professional or semi contracts for a few years until finally dropping out of the game at about 18-23. All of them would be head and shoulders above everyone else in an amateur game, even compared to players you think are half decent, but then they couldn't make it at even lower division sides.

Thing is a lot of professional players, especially lower leagues, they may not every game be displaying amazing technique, but the game is more about the mental side of it really. It's all good being able to strike a ball immensenly or have some silky skills but in a game at professional level it's about decision making more than anything. One kid from my school who was the best player at school, at an academy from like age 12, was on the books there until about 19 playing U18s then reserves but never maybe a full debut, but he was let's say not the brightest spark. He had loads of talent, in an amateur game he looks like Ronaldo as nobody can get near him, but the club gave up on him eventually as he was just too dim to learn how to actually play the game. Whereas in the professional game there will be some players who maybe weren't the best when younger but will do the dirty stuff or "simple" stuff diligently, and do it over and over again. Generally to make it though I think players need to be that kid who is by far the best at youth level, but then has the humility and work ethic to then do the boring and dirty stuff in an adult, professional game.

 

[Pughnichi]

0.012%

Isn’t this figure from u16s aswell?

might be wrong but thought it’s from a certain age group and beyond. The 0.012 doesn’t take Into account the u6,7,8s etc that play grassroots

 

[JPRouve]

This x100. I've played with and against numerous players who were in the academy system, a few of whom had professional or semi contracts for a few years until finally dropping out of the game at about 18-23. All of them would be head and shoulders above everyone else in an amateur game, even compared to players you think are half decent, but then they couldn't make it at even lower division sides.

Thing is a lot of professional players, especially lower leagues, they may not every game be displaying amazing technique, but the game is more about the mental side of it really. It's all good being able to strike a ball immensenly or have some silky skills but in a game at professional level it's about decision making more than anything. One kid from my school who was the best player at school, at an academy from like age 12, was on the books there until about 19 playing U18s then reserves but never maybe a full debut, but he was let's say not the brightest spark. He had loads of talent, in an amateur game he looks like Ronaldo as nobody can get near him, but the club gave up on him eventually as he was just too dim to learn how to actually play the game. Whereas in the professional game there will be some players who maybe weren't the best when younger but will do the dirty stuff or "simple" stuff diligently, and do it over and over again. Generally to make it though I think players need to be that kid who is by far the best at youth level, but then has the humility and work ethic to then do the boring and dirty stuff in an adult, professional game.

I fully agree with you but you forgot the one thing that people generally completely ignore. When you go up a level the biggest issue is the speed of the game, everyone is slightly faster and reacts to game events faster. Two players may seem to have similar technique but one of them is able to do things at slightly higher intensity. That's generally the difference between a PL and League one player.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Ferguson once said you need three things to make it: Talent, Attitude and Luck.

 

[11101]

My only experience I can remember, was playing Welbeck in one of the school cups, can't remember which one, but we were playing Trinity, drawing 2-2 with about 15-20 mins left to go. Welbeck comes on and scores with a brilliant run when he first gets the ball, and finishes the game with hat trick. Our coach/ Gym teacher told us after that he was brought through United's academy, kept my ear open ever since and was a shame he didn't make it.
But, my word, you could see a clear difference in level when he came on, bearing I mind we were 14 maybe 15.

I think by pretty much any standard Welbeck 'made it'.

 

[Ali Dia]

I remember being over on holidays at a butlins (the shame ) with my aunt and uncle in England and I ran into this kid called David Hicks who was with Spurs underage at the time. I think he was a few years younger than me. I was 13 at the time I think. He made an absolute mockery of everyone in the football matches. He was tiny but nobody could get near him and there were a few kids at other clubs there at the time. You could tell his dad was driving him big time. Just googled him there and he was released by Spurs and only ever played a few games down the leagues. Probably the best player I’ve ever kicked around with I’ve played with lads who’ve had trials and stuff but this guy was just different. It just goes to show how high the standard is and how much luck goes into it too.

A friend of mine played with Seamus Coleman for a while in Donegal or Sligo I can’t fully remember and he said he was just relentlessly fit and competitive. Best player on the pitch by a mile and even if he wasn’t he had way more drive than anyone else.

Rory Gaffney who played for Salford and Bristol and scored a few is from close to me. He’s class. He’s back in the league of Ireland now though.

Eithan Mannion was another lad from our town who went over to WBA and was released. He went to Walsall next and then Iceland I think! Supposedly he just couldn’t settle in England alone as youngster. His family stayed on in England I think.

it’s a crazy industry when you think about it.

 

[Powderfinger]

I fully agree with you but you forgot the one thing that people generally completely ignore. When you go up a level the biggest issue is the speed of the game, everyone is slightly faster and reacts to game events faster. Two players may seem to have similar technique but one of them is able to do things at slightly higher intensity. That's generally the difference between a PL and League one player.

Yup. And this is a big reason why its really hard to predict who will make it at age 16-17. They can have everything in their locker technically but if they've never really been put into situations that require faster and faster decisions and mental processing then you just don't know whether they'll be able to handle it when the game speeds up.

 

[TrustInOle]

I think by pretty much any standard Welbeck 'made it'.

My bad, I meant my disappointment in him not making it here.

 

[MrMarcello]

How would it compare in other sports?

How many of the people who play basketball in America make it to the NBA?

Probably less than one-tenth of a percent of high school aged kids (not all compete in high school sports, some play for travel or other teams). I had walk-on tryouts for Cleveland and Kansas City in 93/94 in the hopes of a professional baseball contract. There were at least 40-50 others in attendance, many were probably HS standouts. Only about a dozen made it past the initial 40 timing, 1st to 2nd timing, and some fielding drills. Those selected were then invited to hit off a pitcher at different speeds. I'd imagine if more than 2 were signed that's be a good day for scouts.

This takes into account collegiate athletes. I think the baseball and hockey stat is misleading as there are dozens of professional clubs at the minor league level. I'd be interested to see how many English youth footballers make it to at least the lowest level of professional living (is that 3rd or 4th division over there?).
https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-professional-athletics
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/research/pro_beyond/2020RES_ProbabilityBeyondHSFiguresMethod.pdf

 

[GioF]

My only experience I can remember, was playing Welbeck in one of the school cups, can't remember which one, but we were playing Trinity, drawing 2-2 with about 15-20 mins left to go. Welbeck comes on and scores with a brilliant run when he first gets the ball, and finishes the game with hat trick. Our coach/ Gym teacher told us after that he was brought through United's academy, kept my ear open ever since and was a shame he didn't make it.
But, my word, you could see a clear difference in level when he came on, bearing I mind we were 14 maybe 15.

A big thing to consider also is the age in which the kid starts getting bigger/stronger. Some kids I played against at 13 were rocking the beard, 6ft 2 and like a bull!!! Others were small and frail. But then a year later they had their growth spurts but by then they’d been released.

 

[MrMarcello]

I wonder how many Phil Joneses there are and if we got the right one though. Fine margins I reckon.

How many, "This guy here is the next Duncan Edwards."?

 

[Trequarista10]

I fully agree with you but you forgot the one thing that people generally completely ignore. When you go up a level the biggest issue is the speed of the game, everyone is slightly faster and reacts to game events faster. Two players may seem to have similar technique but one of them is able to do things at slightly higher intensity. That's generally the difference between a PL and League one player.

Yup speed is what all the guys I've spoke to who played at a decent level have said. They'll come play with us and they just seem to have so much time, because they're one step ahead. But then they'll say they played with or against so-and-so, and that it was so quick they couldn't keep up. It's just levels upon levels getting quicker and quicker at each level.

edit: with the exception of my talented but dim friend, who to this day maintains he was as good as anyone and should have been a pro. But he'll play amateur level and hog the ball too long, get away with it because nobody can tackle him, but you can see why he couldn't adapt at the higher level. He just couldn't learn when to release the ball quickly, when to shoot quickly, when to make a run, and defensively he just didn't really care. He's annoying to play with at amateur level, he must have had his coaches tearing their hair out that he just wouldn't listen and adapt.

 

[SambaBoy]

I've seen some very good talent. I was at Liverpool/City/Bolton as a kid before going into semi-pro level playing abroad and in the UK.

The 2 boys that stuck out at Liverpool didn't even make it in the pro game, one was offered the chance to join Ajax at the age of 14. There's probably been a couple of players where I've thought wow they are a level above. Victor Moses was one of those. I've also played with pro's at an adult level, and the difference isn't that great. Their fitness and first touch stand out. They're able to do the basics very well and consistently which is where most semi-pros fail. They can do the things the pro's can but not as consistently and over a few games & sessions, you will start to notice the difference.

When I wast Liverpool too, Tom Ince started to train with us, not on merit but because of his dad connections. Honestly he was terrible, and well below the standard. Over time, he started to catch up technically as he always had the physical qualities. With training with quality players 3/4 times a week, he was able to reach that sort of standard. Most won't have that opportunity, if he was a normal kid, he never would have even got a trial, never mind being signed and would've been let go pretty soon if that was the case. He moved onto Blackburn after a year or two. To then see him pro, and doing well in the Championship years later was madness.

 

[Sky1981]

I've played with Eric Dier's younger brothers. The youngest was ridiculously good.

I've also played with the Kuwaiti national team goal keeper and winger (this is back in 2012/2013). Both were really good, but I felt the gap between me and them wasn't as big.

Everyone is ok in isolation. It's when you play against much better opponent then it started to show.

I've a friend who can do what messi does in the park. I dont think he'll last 1 minute in EPL being clattered by fitter bigger stronger player

 

[Chipper]

I'd be interested to see how many English youth footballers make it to at least the lowest level of professional living (is that 3rd or 4th division over there?).

Pretty much the whole of the 5th tier is full-time professional these days too, or at least it was before corona. Don't know what's going to happen in the future.

You could make enough to live on in lower tiers than that sometimes, depends. Teams would vary a lot. Star player on a semi-pro team in the 6th or 7th tier bankrolled by a rich guy or one with a decent fanbase for that level could be on a few hundred pounds a week playing against a team where everyone is on a £25 or £50 match fee and not much else.

 

[Rozay]

And one of the 180 was Paul Dummett.

 

[VeevaVee]

I don’t think the numbers alone paint an accurate picture. There would be a shit tonne more good enough with the right circumstances.

Think how many don’t get the right coaching when young, don’t get seen, don’t get given the opportunity, or just weren’t quite good enough at the time a scout was there.

Then I bet there’s a load that are on the verge of breaking through but there isn’t the space in the squad to do so, so their career falters before it even gets going.

And of those that do make it - some would no doubt fit right in in the leagues below, and some of those below could no doubt fill slots in PL squads and do a job. They just weren’t quite fortunate enough.

 

[VeevaVee]

1.5 million sounds low? How many “young people” are in the UK? Tens of millions, surely?

Probably means playing for a team?

 

[golden_blunder]

There were 2 kids in my class at school who were a level above. One, a winger who’d glide past players, signed schoolboy forms with Coleraine FC, a big part club at the time. Arsenal and Aston Villa both came in for him but Coleraine wouldn’t entertain releasing him. His career never ended up going further than the Irish leagues.

another was a superb defender, big lad, strong with pace. Signed for Middlesbrough. From what I heard he started enjoying the social scene a bit too much and was released.

gary Neville bangs in about it a lot, being a talented youngster is not enough. You need to give up everything outside of football and dedicate yourself to training etc.

its also why i don’t get heavily invested in making predictions about which youth players are certain to make it. There are no guarantees.

 

[limerickcitykid]

And one of the 180 was Paul Dummett.

Newcastle academy coach I know said he’s one of the least talented players he’s ever coached. He always tried really hard though.

 

[cjj]

One of the things I don't 'get' about the way that diversity is preached by people in and around the game is this kind of statistic.

If you have a 0.012% chance of making it in the game, and (say, arbitrarily) 20% of the pool are BAME, then what kind of odd maths would mean that 20% of the 0.012% are BAME? I feel like that is the follow-up question that is often asked, but it depends on the area they are scouted in.

Don't get me wrong, there are factors - but there are always factors that aren't about diversity. I went to school in a remote town in Wales and only one pro player was ever made in over 100 years of the school, who played a handful of games in the PL in the end. Our PE teachers picked the teams based on popularity, not ability. We had a team full of class bullies who would toe-poke it or punch players on the pitch, so there were lads who would never get near the team based on ability alone. As noted by the Tomkins reference, so players just had the right connections despite their abilities.

Same with management stuff; I don't think you can apply % to characteristics of the human involved on the basis of who becomes a manager - there should just be a more transparent process.

 

[11101]

I've seen some very good talent. I was at Liverpool/City/Bolton as a kid before going into semi-pro level playing abroad and in the UK.

The 2 boys that stuck out at Liverpool didn't even make it in the pro game, one was offered the chance to join Ajax at the age of 14. There's probably been a couple of players where I've thought wow they are a level above. Victor Moses was one of those. I've also played with pro's at an adult level, and the difference isn't that great. Their fitness and first touch stand out. They're able to do the basics very well and consistently which is where most semi-pros fail. They can do the things the pro's can but not as consistently and over a few games & sessions, you will start to notice the difference.

When I wast Liverpool too, Tom Ince started to train with us, not on merit but because of his dad connections. Honestly he was terrible, and well below the standard. Over time, he started to catch up technically as he always had the physical qualities. With training with quality players 3/4 times a week, he was able to reach that sort of standard. Most won't have that opportunity, if he was a normal kid, he never would have even got a trial, never mind being signed and would've been let go pretty soon if that was the case. He moved onto Blackburn after a year or two. To then see him pro, and doing well in the Championship years later was madness.

This was my experience too. Once you reach a certain level you can all pass the ball quickly, move quickly and are generally a good step or two ahead of any amateur player. Everybody is a good footballer. Those who made it to higher levels than me were the ones who didn't make mistakes. I was a CB and we were all taught what to do as well as any PL player, but often I couldn't do it for whatever reason. You miss a run or give the ball away where the best players never would. It's not that they are massively faster, or more skillful, or stronger or anything like that, although i guess that changes when you get to the very best players. I imagine somebody like Rashford is fecking rapid to go with everything else.


I'm not sure Tom Ince is doing all that well in the Championship. I think most Stoke fans are amazed he came from the same genes as his father.

 

[Rozay]

Newcastle academy coach I know said he’s one of the least talented players he’s ever coached. He always tried really hard though.

I genuinely think he’s the worst player I’ve seen in the PL in the last couple of years. Will quietly retire as a millionaire and won’t even be recognised in the street within a year. Very lucky fella.

 

[Neil_Buchanan]

Just expand the league to 150,000 teams then they all get a chance to make it in the premier league, pretty fecking obvious.

 

[Murder on Zidane's Floor]

180?

20x11 = 220. Every squad has 25, no? = 500 alltogether

Have to make an appearance

 

[Thunderhead]

I genuinely think he’s the worst player I’ve seen in the PL in the last couple of years. Will quietly retire as a millionaire and won’t even be recognised in the street within a year. Very lucky fella.

he's not even the worst Newcastle player never mind PL player of the last couple of seasons

 

[kouroux]

Ali Dia made it

 

[Rozay]

he's not even the worst Newcastle player never mind PL player of the last couple of seasons

He’s their worst, having taken over from some con artist called Mike Williamson I think who was posing as a centre half there a few years back.

 

[Murder on Zidane's Floor]

I think when playing against players who are levels above, I always felt it was their ability to do things that I could/can do, but at about 200% quicker.

Like I could stay with them to a point but they had levels they could take me to where my game would start to break down.

I always found when playing with better players, my level went up (to a point) but the returns diminished very quickly.

 

[Grinner]

That does all go out of the window for the proper stars though. I played in a tournament with a young Jack Grealish and he was on another stratosphere. I don't see how he could have ever failed to make it.

How big were his young calves?