Tampa Bay was a good football team last year, even with a bad quarterback. They were a very competitive team and about five or six games were one possession losses. But this year their draft picks from the previous year came true, Evans was healthy, and of course they got one of the best QBs ever. Arians is a great head coach and Todd Bowles is a very good coordinator. Tampa's defense has improved immensely and if Winfield Jr is healthy for the SB, probably should be, then it'll make the game obviously much better. They can pressure any QB with just their front four and just as effectively stop the run.
Brady chose Tampa because he knew they had a very good chance at making the playoffs and making a run. It was very apparent and wasn't some blind choice. On the flip side, this was one of the worst Patriots teams in the past decade, even without Brady because of player opt outs from Covid and injuries. They just didn't have a good team yet they managed to get 7 wins in a competitive division paced by the Bills.
As for the Super Bowl, don't really care but Mahomes not having Eric Fisher to protect his blindside is a bit concerning. JPP or Shaq Barrett will always lineup against Fisher's replacement. It's great matchup for sure.