United and xG (now that Ole is gone will things change?)

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
13,906
What did our performance merit?
You can have a match where a team essentially beats themselves and the opposition gets the three points without ever really earning it. Everton benefitted in the same way last week too. We’re squandering too many of our chances and leaking some pathetic goals. When your keeper is un utter liability then you’re going to get far fewer points than your performances otherwise deserve and your opponent may well win without having to create anything of any real quality.
 

sunama

Baghdad Bob
Joined
Apr 26, 2014
Messages
16,830
No. They weren't. We were shit and they weren't. xG is the dumbest shit ever created.

Let's remove all the penalties given to us as well, no? All daft, aren't they?
Thank you!
My thoughts exactly.
Why are people making excuses for us playing crap against the worst team in the league?

We are a mid table team because this is the rhetoric which is being said by Woodward and Ole. They said that we are going to be crap in the short term and that this is a long term plan. If Woodward fired Ole tomorrow, because 8th place is unacceptable and sent a message to the players that 8th place is unacceptable, I guarantee that the performance level will immediately improve. It'll improve further once a new competent manager and coaches are appointed.
This is not rocket science.
 

lysglimt

Full Member
Scout
Joined
Jun 1, 2008
Messages
15,108
Thank you!
My thoughts exactly.
Why are people making excuses for us playing crap against the worst team in the league?

We are a mid table team because this is the rhetoric which is being said by Woodward and Ole. They said that we are going to be crap in the short term and that this is a long term plan. If Woodward fired Ole tomorrow, because 8th place is unacceptable and sent a message to the players that 8th place is unacceptable, I guarantee that the performance level will immediately improve. It'll improve further once a new competent manager and coaches are appointed.
This is not rocket science.
Hm...let's see if I understand your reasoning...

The performance levels at United have improved dramatically compared to our last months with Mourinho
The performance levels at Spurs have improved dramatically after Spurs fired Pochettino and replaced him with Mourinho

So - with your logic that means OGS is a better manager than Mourinho who in turn is a better manager than Pochettino...interesting!
 

Samid

He's no Bilal Ilyas Jhandir
Joined
Dec 12, 2012
Messages
49,157
Location
Oslo, Norway

This is interesting. Obviously we have some good finishers capable of scoring great goals but how sustainable is that in the longer term? Ole's first real test is to get the team to score scruffy goals and tap-ins.
 

DoomSlayer

New Member
Joined
Jun 20, 2019
Messages
4,875
Location
Bulgaria

This is interesting. Obviously we have some good finishers capable of scoring great goals but how sustainable is that in the longer term? Ole's first real test is to get the team to score scruffy goals and tap-ins.
We had 19 shots overall and 10 on target, their keeper made some great saves. It's weird to see that the stats are so low, even if we scored 2 worldies and a great FK.
 

Tarrou

Full Member
Joined
May 13, 2013
Messages
25,540
Location
Sydney
we're creating lots of chances, i wouldn't worry about outperforming Xg it's only one game
 

roonster09

Hercule Poirot of the scouting world
Scout
Joined
May 10, 2009
Messages
36,518

This is interesting. Obviously we have some good finishers capable of scoring great goals but how sustainable is that in the longer term? Ole's first real test is to get the team to score scruffy goals and tap-ins.
Since Bruno signed our xG
Vs Wolves 1.54
Vs Chelsea 0.68
Vs Watford 2.50
Vs Everton 1.13
Vs ManCity 1.74
Vs Spurs 1.77
Vs SHU 2.84
Vs Brighton 1.21
Vs Bournemouth 2.63

Vs LASK 3.14
Vs Norwich 2.7

We have done well in creating chances
 

Random Task

WW Lynchpin
Joined
Feb 7, 2010
Messages
34,503
Location
Chester
Since Bruno signed our xG
Vs Wolves 1.54
Vs Chelsea 0.68
Vs Watford 2.50
Vs Everton 1.13
Vs ManCity 1.74
Vs Spurs 1.77
Vs SHU 2.84
Vs Brighton 1.21
Vs Bournemouth 2.63

Vs LASK 3.14
Vs Norwich 2.7

We have done well in creating chances
I don't quite get this xG business, could someone explain to me why the above numbers are good for us?
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
57,587
Location
Canada

This is interesting. Obviously we have some good finishers capable of scoring great goals but how sustainable is that in the longer term? Ole's first real test is to get the team to score scruffy goals and tap-ins.
Nothing wrong with that xG, its like 2.4 including the pen. Almost always when teams score 3 or more, its because they were clinical in the game. Keep in mind goals like Bruno's free kick, martials or Greenwoods 2nd were all very low chances, just brilliant pieces of play. We have so many different ways to score now, both in creating chance and through individual pieces of brilliance. Pogba and Bruno always had a reputation of scoring long range worldies, Rashford has an incredible shot from range and Martial is capable of shots like today. Greenwood also has shown he's more than capable of brilliant goals too. Having that many players who can all do something out of nothing will lead to more early goals to break teams down and lead to more high scoring performances, even though you'll have games you underperform xG (like Spurs).
 

Keefy18

Full Member
Joined
Nov 13, 2018
Messages
2,653
I don't quite get this xG business, could someone explain to me why the above numbers are good for us?
Same, I find it quite difficult to read if I'm honest.

Simply put, I take it the lowest number (Chelsea) is poor and yesterday vs Bournemouth good?

Vs Chelsea 0.68
Vs Bournemouth 2.63

I'm a big advocate of performance data. Really annoys me when supporters completely ignore it cause so many top clubs have hired data analysts to delve into the numbers more now.
 
Last edited:

roonster09

Hercule Poirot of the scouting world
Scout
Joined
May 10, 2009
Messages
36,518
Same, I find it quite difficult to read if I'm honest.

Simply put, I take it the lowest number (Chelsea) is poor and yesterday vs Bournemouth good?

Vs Chelsea 0.68
Vs Bournemouth 2.63

I'm a big advocate of performance date. Really annoys me when supporters completely ignore it cause so many top clubs have hired data analysts to delve into the numbers more now.
I think you are looking at xGA which is chances conceded. xG is chances created.
 

Leftback99

Might have a bedwetting fetish.
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
13,967
I don't quite get this xG business, could someone explain to me why the above numbers are good for us?
It would need the list pre Bruno for comparison which i assume would show on average the numbers now are higher than before. i.e. we're creating more/better chances that we expect to score from.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
57,587
Location
Canada
I don't quite get this xG business, could someone explain to me why the above numbers are good for us?
Its pretty much just rating the chance created at the moment of a shot, ignoring shot quality, which is a pretty decent metric at judging how well a team regularly creates chances (and same defensively). You can't always account for screamers, pens have been proven to be relatively random and again hard to account for (though we've received an absurd amount of them this season), and you can have games where you create chance after chance, score a couple of goals but the opposition scores 2 worldies and the good work is undone. Meant to keep some perspective on the overall performance. On the flip side, it also won't be all that much use if a team scores a few worldies/low percentage chances early on and then coast the rest of the game (United vs Brighton), as then its likely the team finish with a low xG. Generally its a very good long term trend though. Understat.com I like with the way they have a constantly updating xG table, showing for and against and "xPts". You'll have teams like United in 2017/18 that massively out performed performances, and you'd expect a regression which duly came. Or United 16/17 that massively underperformed (bad finishing though the year had a lot if promise). Or Leicester this year, very much being clinical and the drop in results not being that surprising when you look at the general performances.

These numbers are good as its a hard run of fixtures with plenty of good defensive sides, yet we keep creating regularly, we keep the opposition chances down, and we've been scoring on top of that.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
57,587
Location
Canada
It would need the list pre Bruno for comparison which i assume would show on average the numbers now are higher than before. i.e. we're creating more/better chances that we expect to score from.
Since January 31st (9 games) (keep in mind its been a hard run with Wolves, Chelsea, City, Spurs, Everton all part of it), we have:
  • 15.69 xG from 9 games (3rd in league behind Chelsea and City) - 1.74 per game
  • 8.25 xGA from 9 games (2nd behind Wolves) - 0.92 per game
  • 17.62 xPTS (1st in the league, City game in hand) - 1.96 per game
From start of season until January 31st (24 games) we had:
  • 41.83 xG (4th in the league, behind City, Liverpool and Chelsea) - 1.74 per game
  • 24.79 xGA (2nd in the league, behind Liverpool) - 1.03 per game
  • 44.14 xPTS (4th in the league behind City, Liverpool and Chelsea) - 1.84 per game
Clear improvements but staying level with the creativity (just scoring more now, as we were underperforming before). On that side of things I would put it down to fixtures played. Having the same creative levels when you take an average of 24 league games vs when you play Wolves, City, Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, Sheffield United (and Brighton, Bournemouth and Watford) is a positive and it will keep going up as we've only had Pogba for the last 4. Also goes to show that our performances weren't that bad largely in the first half of the season. Just we weren't a clinical team, didn't take chances at the right times etc.
 

Random Task

WW Lynchpin
Joined
Feb 7, 2010
Messages
34,503
Location
Chester
Its pretty much just rating the chance created at the moment of a shot, ignoring shot quality, which is a pretty decent metric at judging how well a team regularly creates chances (and same defensively). You can't always account for screamers, pens have been proven to be relatively random and again hard to account for (though we've received an absurd amount of them this season), and you can have games where you create chance after chance, score a couple of goals but the opposition scores 2 worldies and the good work is undone. Meant to keep some perspective on the overall performance. On the flip side, it also won't be all that much use if a team scores a few worldies/low percentage chances early on and then coast the rest of the game (United vs Brighton), as then its likely the team finish with a low xG. Generally its a very good long term trend though. Understat.com I like with the way they have a constantly updating xG table, showing for and against and "xPts". You'll have teams like United in 2017/18 that massively out performed performances, and you'd expect a regression which duly came. Or United 16/17 that massively underperformed (bad finishing though the year had a lot if promise). Or Leicester this year, very much being clinical and the drop in results not being that surprising when you look at the general performances.

These numbers are good as its a hard run of fixtures with plenty of good defensive sides, yet we keep creating regularly, we keep the opposition chances down, and we've been scoring on top of that.
Thanks for taking the time to explain how the system works, much appreciated.
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
Nothing wrong with that xG, its like 2.4 including the pen. Almost always when teams score 3 or more, its because they were clinical in the game. Keep in mind goals like Bruno's free kick, martials or Greenwoods 2nd were all very low chances, just brilliant pieces of play. We have so many different ways to score now, both in creating chance and through individual pieces of brilliance. Pogba and Bruno always had a reputation of scoring long range worldies, Rashford has an incredible shot from range and Martial is capable of shots like today. Greenwood also has shown he's more than capable of brilliant goals too. Having that many players who can all do something out of nothing will lead to more early goals to break teams down and lead to more high scoring performances, even though you'll have games you underperform xG (like Spurs).
The first part is a very good point that many people are not aware of. The biggest pre-match handicaps occur when the best team (Man City) plays relegation fodder at home. And even then they will only be a 2.5 or 2.75 goal favourite. If you take home field advantage out of equation, you get a disparity of just about two goals between the best team and the worst team in the league. This is in line with actual performance data from this season which sees City at +1.39 xG per 90 and Villa at -0.78 (using StatsBomb data via fbref.com). Now these are averages but you get the idea that very few 3+ goal margins are a true reflection of actual performance levels. It is unfortunate that so many only look at individual results to form their opinion. Take Leicester's 9-0 at Southampton. As one-sided a match as you'll ever going to see, yet (obviously) nowhere near a 9-goal margin of victory. Expected goals for that match was 0.4 - 3.6 which in itself is massive but Southampton had a player sent off after 10 minutes. Yet people were seriously suggesting that Hasenhüttl may lose his job just for the fact he had recorded the biggest defeat in Premier League history which should be totally irrelevant.
 

Fosu-Mens

Full Member
Joined
Apr 11, 2016
Messages
4,101
Location
Fred | 2019/20 Performances
Its pretty much just rating the chance created at the moment of a shot, ignoring shot quality, which is a pretty decent metric at judging how well a team regularly creates chances (and same defensively). You can't always account for screamers, pens have been proven to be relatively random and again hard to account for (though we've received an absurd amount of them this season), and you can have games where you create chance after chance, score a couple of goals but the opposition scores 2 worldies and the good work is undone. Meant to keep some perspective on the overall performance. On the flip side, it also won't be all that much use if a team scores a few worldies/low percentage chances early on and then coast the rest of the game (United vs Brighton), as then its likely the team finish with a low xG. Generally its a very good long term trend though. Understat.com I like with the way they have a constantly updating xG table, showing for and against and "xPts". You'll have teams like United in 2017/18 that massively out performed performances, and you'd expect a regression which duly came. Or United 16/17 that massively underperformed (bad finishing though the year had a lot if promise). Or Leicester this year, very much being clinical and the drop in results not being that surprising when you look at the general performances.

These numbers are good as its a hard run of fixtures with plenty of good defensive sides, yet we keep creating regularly, we keep the opposition chances down, and we've been scoring on top of that.
I just fear the day they start with advertising +++ etc on Understat, an amazing site.

And it is good to evaluate which attacking players are good/bad at finishing/taking their chances. Greenwood and Martial are great, Rashford not (Also impacted by his penalty misses, but historically not the best finisher).
 

Kazi

Full Member
Joined
Feb 13, 2013
Messages
11,311
Location
SIIIUUUUUU
Personally think the low intensity of the matches since football resumed is helping us big time. When you have Pogba and Bruno in the team and they’re given time, they will destroy you.
 

Crashoutcassius

Full Member
Joined
Oct 10, 2013
Messages
10,295
Location
playa del carmen
looks like we will finish the season roughly on xg and xga but below xpoints unless things change in last few games

first half of the season it was clear we could be grinding out a lot of results if we were a bit more confident / fortunate.

playing style change has shifted quite dramatically since christmas too though which is much more pleasing for me
 

Crashoutcassius

Full Member
Joined
Oct 10, 2013
Messages
10,295
Location
playa del carmen
Major difference where as last season we were putting up very favourable xg and xga numbers for the first 6 months but running under expectation , this season we are giving up a crazy amount of chances. Obviously that can be seen with the eyes, but people weren't able to see with the eyes last season that we weren't giving up much so it is still worth pointing out
 

rotherham_red

Full Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
7,407
Major difference where as last season we were putting up very favourable xg and xga numbers for the first 6 months but running under expectation , this season we are giving up a crazy amount of chances. Obviously that can be seen with the eyes, but people weren't able to see with the eyes last season that we weren't giving up much so it is still worth pointing out
I agree. Something has changed and needs to be rectified, ASAP.

People jumping to conclusions and saying the defence is shit and has always been shit or have been found out, are wilfully ignorant as far as I'm concerned. This same set of players were very solid last year.

I think what has caused this downturn, is a mix of poor application and lapses in concentration (possibly due to them being undercooked, or just in poor individual form), as well as Maguire suffering a hangover from what happened in the summer. He looks a totally different player from last year, and not for the better.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,350
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I agree. Something has changed and needs to be rectified, ASAP.

People jumping to conclusions and saying the defence is shit and has always been shit or have been found out, are wilfully ignorant as far as I'm concerned. This same set of players were very solid last year.

I think what has caused this downturn, is a mix of poor application and lapses in concentration (possibly due to them being undercooked, or just in poor individual form), as well as Maguire suffering a hangover from what happened in the summer. He looks a totally different player from last year, and not for the better.
I know that “with Pogba is always polemic” but I think his prolonged absence last season was a huge help for our defence. He’s such a fecking defensive liability, on and off the ball. The wide open spaces our back four are trying and failing to properly defend has a lot to do with issues in central midfield IMO.
 

#07

makes new threads with tweets in the OP
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
23,258
I know that “with Pogba is always polemic” but I think his prolonged absence last season was a huge help for our defence. He’s such a fecking defensive liability, on and off the ball. The wide open spaces our back four are trying and failing to properly defend has a lot to do with issues in central midfield IMO.
Lots of truth in this.

There has also been a change in approach. Solskjaer was much more conservative, not simply in team selection but also in approach, before Pogba and Bruno were both available for selection. The team was a lot more compact, the lines were a lot closer together and we were a much more reactive, transition based team, even after Bruno began to dominate our attacking tempo.

Solskjaer seems to have come to believe that having both Bruno and Pogba means we can change our approach. We can open up, we can leave the defence in more 1v1 situations, we can push Bruno right up to almost be a second striker. Its not a ridiculous idea, on paper, our shape in build up is very much like what a lot of top teams do. However, I think its being shown that maybe we are not as good as the lockdown games made us believe we were. The model for our team is probably closer to the 2-0 we got against City in March, rather than the 5-2 against Bournemouth during lockdown.
 

rotherham_red

Full Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
7,407
I know that “with Pogba is always polemic” but I think his prolonged absence last season was a huge help for our defence. He’s such a fecking defensive liability, on and off the ball. The wide open spaces our back four are trying and failing to properly defend has a lot to do with issues in central midfield IMO.
Yeah, that's certainly possible too.

I love the guy but I just think we have to cede defeat on this one and wish him the best at the end of the season. Let him go for a halfway acceptable sum (c.£40m-£50m), and let VdB come in and take his place and look to promote Garner next season as the squad option, with Mejbri going out on loan.

I still retain a modicum of hope that it properly clicks for him here, but it just doesn't seem to be working at all, and any semblance of a sporting project here maturing while he's at his peak went out of the window when Sancho didn't arrive.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,496
Lots of truth in this.

There has also been a change in approach. Solskjaer was much more conservative, not simply in team selection but also in approach, before Pogba and Bruno were both available for selection. The team was a lot more compact, the lines were a lot closer together and we were a much more reactive, transition based team, even after Bruno began to dominate our attacking tempo.

Solskjaer seems to have come to believe that having both Bruno and Pogba means we can change our approach. We can open up, we can leave the defence in more 1v1 situations, we can push Bruno right up to almost be a second striker. Its not a ridiculous idea, on paper, our shape in build up is very much like what a lot of top teams do. However, I think its being shown that maybe we are not as good as the lockdown games made us believe we were. The model for our team is probably closer to the 2-0 we got against City in March, rather than the 5-2 against Bournemouth during lockdown.
The exact same thing happened under Jose. He'd taken so much criticism for his cautious approach that we started that season being more open using Pogba deeper and it spiralled from there.

We had those threads praising the Carrick/McKenna influence and they then escaped any blame. Impossible for us fans to attribute blame (what does Phelan do afterall) but at some point you've got to say perhaps they're not helping even if they're not to blame?
 

#07

makes new threads with tweets in the OP
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
23,258
The exact same thing happened under Jose. He'd taken so much criticism for his cautious approach that we started that season being more open using Pogba deeper and it spiralled from there.

We had those threads praising the Carrick/McKenna influence and they then escaped any blame. Impossible for us fans to attribute blame (what does Phelan do afterall) but at some point you've got to say perhaps they're not helping even if they're not to blame?
Its becoming increasingly clear that Jose was right about a lot of United's issues, even if he wasn't the right man to fix them.

The issue we have is that, while we have changed the manager, fundamentally nothing has changed. Klopp, Guardiola they've been allowed to recycle literally dozens of players. Whereas all the coaches we've had recently have been saddled with the previous guy's players, which means the same limitations exist and you have to fall back on the same solutions to address them.

Its surely no coincidence that LVG, Mourinho and Ole have all resorted to a deep lying back line and ultra defensive double pivot at various times throughout their reigns as manager. If you've got basically the same players as the guy before you, how can you change it?

I'm not sure what input Carrick and McKenna have but the experiment of trying to be expansive must surely be over now.
 

100

binary bot
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Messages
10,914
Location
HELLO
I've been guilty of focusing on individual defensive performances but slowly realising our lineups are pure romanticism, and gaining sympathy for the defence.

We approach games tactically like we're a top team, but disregard the difficult things that others do. Does any other team play such an attacking lineup without negating the defence's workload elsewhere?

Remember the league cup game where City turned us over in the first half, could've been 5 or so? We started with:

Rashford
James Lingard Greenwood
Fred Pereira​

A batshit crazy lineup in hindsight, but role-wise not drastically different to our current approach.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
57,587
Location
Canada
Yeah, that's certainly possible too.

I love the guy but I just think we have to cede defeat on this one and wish him the best at the end of the season. Let him go for a halfway acceptable sum (c.£40m-£50m), and let VdB come in and take his place and look to promote Garner next season as the squad option, with Mejbri going out on loan.

I still retain a modicum of hope that it properly clicks for him here, but it just doesn't seem to be working at all, and any semblance of a sporting project here maturing while he's at his peak went out of the window when Sancho didn't arrive.
We'd be lucky to get more than 30m or so to be honest. His contract expires next summer but with the option to extend 1 year. Which means he'd have a year left. He'll be 28. Thiago at 29 just went for 20-25m? He's far more proven, performed like a world class player for years, motm in the CL final, etc. I'm worried that we'll shoot ourselves in the foot and extend his contract.
 

rotherham_red

Full Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
7,407
We'd be lucky to get more than 30m or so to be honest. His contract expires next summer but with the option to extend 1 year. Which means he'd have a year left. He'll be 28. Thiago at 29 just went for 20-25m? He's far more proven, performed like a world class player for years, motm in the CL final, etc. I'm worried that we'll shoot ourselves in the foot and extend his contract.
Yeah, you're right. It'll most likely be in that range.

And I share your concerns re the contract extension. We've done it for Rojo, and if reports are to be believed, we were willing to do it for Young too.