Ross Kemp's caf ID
- Sep 13, 2012
The figure I saw before is that just under 81% of PL games were won by the team with the highest xG. Though what particular model that was and how many games they looked at, I'm not sure.I’d be interested to know how often the team with the lower xG in a game still wins. I get the feeling it could be more often than one might instinctively think.
Which (heavily context dependent though even any look at xG in a single game should be) would still make it a better indicator in one-off games than the amount of shots, for example. So if someone was arguing that team x should have won because they had more shots, pointing to them also having the lower xG could be a reasonable point depending on the context of the game.
In general though the above are correct, it's not a stat designed to be used in one-off games. So heavy caveats apply if you try to do so.