Ole and xG

TMDaines

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2.27 xG on target. Huge performance from De Gea. Nice for him to finish banishing those demons from the Europa League final. Saved a penalty already this season and then got us at least 2 points with a huge performance against Villarreal.
 

Bastian

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2.27 xG on target. Huge performance from De Gea. Nice for him to finish banishing those demons from the Europa League final. Saved a penalty already this season and then got us at least 2 points with a huge performance against Villarreal.
I'd say he's earned us more points than any other player this season. Been the absolute difference.
 

sullydnl

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Not even gonna look at this season's xG stats until we're more games in but yeah, I'm sure things need to improve.

But then we don't need xG to tell us that anyway.
 

ivaldo

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Are you suggesting this isn’t the case, then?
I'm suggesting these same conversations happened last year, and the year before, and inexplicably we didn't finish outside the top 4, as those who pushed this rhetoric predicted.
 

DWelbz19

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I'm suggesting these same conversations happened last year, and the year before, and inexplicably we didn't finish outside the top 4, as those who pushed this rhetoric predicted.
I’ve not said anything about not finishing top 4. If that is the benchmark for you, fair enough.

It’s not sustainable for us to actually win anything — which is why we come apart when it matters; a very qualifiable CL group last season, the Europa final; the Europa semis the season before that; the 1 week we were first in the league etc.
 

anant

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I honestly don't remember another manager having so much luck. Even going back to the PSG game in the first season, then even being appointed ahead of time before going on a terrible run that probably would have seen him leave if he hadn't already got his deal.
Maybe he isn't?

using understat data
2018/19 season (21 games) xGD: 14.62 GD: 11
2019/20 season - xGD - 28.13 GD: 30
2020/21 season - xGD - 21.25 GD: 29

Total: xGD=64 GD 70

That's hardly a significant overperformance especially when compared to say Liverpool
 

ivaldo

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I’ve not said anything about not finishing top 4. If that is the benchmark for you, fair enough.

It’s not sustainable for us to actually win anything — which is why we come apart when it matters; a very qualifiable CL group last season, the Europa final; the Europa semis the season before that; the 1 week we were first in the league etc.
I didn't say you had said that? Very insecure of you.

Ah so it didn't matter in any of the matches up until the last one. Quarter final? Doesn't matter. Semi final? Doesn't matter. Finishing 2nd in the league? Doesn't matter. But what about that league cup game last week where we played our reserves?

Are you telling me we had the squad to win the league previously? :lol:
 

TMDaines

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I honestly don't remember another manager having so much luck. Even going back to the PSG game in the first season, then even being appointed ahead of time before going on a terrible run that probably would have seen him leave if he hadn't already got his deal.
Ole pretty much has got what he has deserved long term on the metrics side of things. You cannot use xG or xPts as an argument for Ole having got lucky or an overperforming side.
 

Daydreamer

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Statistically it's actually not a golden chance though. Because multiple things need to happen for the goal to actually materialise - one of the attackers needs to play and execute the correct pass at the correct time, and then the player in the goal scoring position needs to make sure he's in the correct position to receive it and then score it.

The second isn't a chance because the foul stopped the chance from materialising. Unless it's a penalty or a shot from free kick range.
Precisely. Statistically it's not a golden chance. In fact - it's not any sort of chance at all. But in practice a simple five yard square pass to an unmarked Ronaldo most definitely is a golden chance to score. The "multiple things" required for an incredibly high probability (or chance) of scoring are in place.

And someone clear through on goal is clearly a chance. To be sent off for denying someone an obvious goal-scoring opportunity... they must have been an obvious goal-scoring opportunity.

I'm a fan of the use of stats as can balance out human tendency towards bias. I'm even a fan of xG specifically. But the idea that player in the position to square the ball for a tap-in isn't a chance for the team to score is baffling. Whether there is a shot or not, that is a huge chance to score. When stats are used the way you're using them they actually become less useful.

One final example (as I sense we may be talking past each other):
  • A forward rounds the keeper but is unbalanced so shoots with too little power allowing the defender time to slide in and clear off the line
  • A forward rounds the keeper but is unbalanced so passes with too little power to his unmarked teammate 2 yards out allowing the defender to slide in and intercept
In both cases striking the ball with more power would almost certainly have lead to a goal, but xG can't account for the second case. Which is fine, it just means that we have to use our judgement to see that both are examples of chance creation.

Anyway, congrats on United's xG-busting win.
 

DWelbz19

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I didn't say you had said that? Very insecure of you.

Ah so it didn't matter in any of the matches up until the last one. Quarter final? Doesn't matter. Semi final? Doesn't matter. Finishing 2nd in the league? Doesn't matter. But what about that league cup game last week where we played our reserves?

Are you telling me we had the squad to win the league previously? :lol:
Well you bizarrely referencing top 4 was you shifting the goalposts to get your snide response in initially, so if anyone is insecure here it was you.

Your entire post is just you being obtuse for the sake of it, so I guess we’ll leave it there.
 

ivaldo

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Well you bizarrely referencing top 4 was you shifting the goalposts to get your snide response in initially, so if anyone is insecure here it was you.

Your entire post is just you being obtuse for the sake of it, so I guess we’ll leave it there.
No, I mentioned the same conversations happening last year and the year before, and what people were saying. You're so insecure you decided I was talking about you. Are the government after you as well, by any chance? Do you know TOO much?

My post was lighthearted, and you've decided to take it spectacularly poorly. You might want to lighten up and a enjoy a fecking win for a change. If a 1990s Friends reference gets you this angry, you might want to give the internet a break.
 

DWelbz19

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No, I mentioned the same conversations happening last year and the year before, and what people were saying. You're so insecure you decided I was talking about you. Are the government after you as well, by any chance? Do you know TOO much?

My post was lighthearted, and you've decided to take it spectacularly poorly. You might want to lighten up and a enjoy a fecking win for a change. If a 1990s Friends reference gets you this angry, you might want to give the internet a break.
I don’t know if you’re quoting the wrong person here, honestly. I don’t know where you’ve got this idea that I’m taking things personally and so angrily from :lol:

Keep on trucking with your Friends references. +1 Reddit gold for you, my man.
 

Jeppers7

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I didn't say you had said that? Very insecure of you.

Ah so it didn't matter in any of the matches up until the last one. Quarter final? Doesn't matter. Semi final? Doesn't matter. Finishing 2nd in the league? Doesn't matter. But what about that league cup game last week where we played our reserves?

Are you telling me we had the squad to win the league previously? :lol:
Bingo
 

pocco

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Maybe he isn't?

using understat data
2018/19 season (21 games) xGD: 14.62 GD: 11
2019/20 season - xGD - 28.13 GD: 30
2020/21 season - xGD - 21.25 GD: 29

Total: xGD=64 GD 70

That's hardly a significant overperformance especially when compared to say Liverpool
I don't just mean that but circumstances also. Like how we were on a really poor run of form when covid hit and when the league restarted, we were back in form and looking fresh whilst the likes of Leicester and Wolves had completely tailed off. Think we turned around a huge gap after the league started to catch up to top 4 again. Before lockdown we were dreading some of the games the way we were playing, but after lockdown those teams capitulated and we caught them easily. Things just seem to work out for Ole but, unfortunately, not necessarily us. ie trophies.
 

anant

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I don't just mean that but circumstances also. Like how we were on a really poor run of form when covid hit and when the league restarted, we were back in form and looking fresh whilst the likes of Leicester and Wolves had completely tailed off. Think we turned around a huge gap after the league started to catch up to top 4 again. Before lockdown we were dreading some of the games the way we were playing, but after lockdown those teams capitulated and we caught them easily. Things just seem to work out for Ole but, unfortunately, not necessarily us. ie trophies.
When COVID hit, we were doing really well - we had just beaten City and Bruno and Martial partnership was showing promosing signs. Ofcourse the break allowed Pogba and Rashy to return, but it was the same with other teams as well - Kane returned among others.

And while we're on the topic of luck- look at our draws and compare that to other teams as well
 

TMDaines

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Posted this elsewhere, but it is more relevant here…

People didn’t want to hear this before the match, but it was always the case. The chances were tonight that we weren’t going to both beat Villarreal and put in a very convincing underlying performance that deserved the three points. Villarreal’s record shows that they are gnarly as feck. They are tough to beat and even when they lose games, they generally are not outplayed. Emery has them very well set up. They have had no losses so far this season and a look at the games they lost in La Liga in 2021 shows that only Barca beat them convincingly. All the other losses were close matches on the xG or they were even games that Villarreal might have ordinarily expected to win.

If your expectation for United tonight was a comfortable three points, then you were always likely to be disappointed.
 

Brexit_Brigade

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Will be worth coming into this thread again in a month or so, after the fixtures we've got coming up.

Then we'll see if creating the third-most chances after four gameweeks was actually indicative that everyone in this thread pointing to our chronic lack of creativity for at least five seasons was just "stuck in their ways" and simply refusing to acknowledge that we dominate most games by any metrics (:
 
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Big Ben Foster

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Unsustainable results are unsustainable, who would've thought?
 

izec

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I dont know what these stats will tell you about Ole. It is basically dependent on the form of our players. The only thing it tells me if our players had a good day or not by making it up themselves on the pitch. 11 players that seem like they met for the first time trying to figure out how to win a game, Ole is just there to tell them some encouraging words and who does play. I bet i am not far off.
 

Dominos

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Our xG extrapolated for the whole league season is 68 goals.
Our xGA extrapolated for the whole league season is 44 toals.

And this is with the kindest fixture list we could have asked for to start the season.

How much money do we need to spend on this team for them to be able to defend and attack like a top side should? 3 years in, we're going absolutely nowhere.
 

hobbers

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Our xG extrapolated for the whole league season is 68 goals.
Our xGA extrapolated for the whole league season is 44 toals.

And this is with the kindest fixture list we could have asked for to start the season.

How much money do we need to spend on this team for them to be able to defend and attack like a top side should? 3 years in, we're going absolutely nowhere.
I think you could give Ole VVD, Kante and Mbappe and we still wouldn't win a title.
 

Sunny Jim

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Our xG extrapolated for the whole league season is 68 goals.
Our xGA extrapolated for the whole league season is 44 toals.

And this is with the kindest fixture list we could have asked for to start the season.

How much money do we need to spend on this team for them to be able to defend and attack like a top side should? 3 years in, we're going absolutely nowhere.
Shocking Numbers. Needs to go
 

anant

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This does not take into account Davies chance because he chose to pass which was ruled offside. Otherwise the difference would be much higher. Against a team which was depleted and at home.
xG on a game to game basis is a terrible metric. Lacks way too much context btw. And that's one of the reasons xGPhilosophy's page is among the more disliked accounts on twitter

The Davies chance being one such example, The Mason cross in the 1st half being another one.
 

FatTails

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xG on a game to game basis is a terrible metric. Lacks way too much context btw. And that's one of the reasons xGPhilosophy's page is among the more disliked accounts on twitter

The Davies chance being one such example, The Mason cross in the 1st half being another one.
I agree, but it is useful directionally when looking at a bunch of games and the overall trend.
 

pratyush_utd

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xG on a game to game basis is a terrible metric. Lacks way too much context btw. And that's one of the reasons xGPhilosophy's page is among the more disliked accounts on twitter

The Davies chance being one such example, The Mason cross in the 1st half being another one.
I agree it's not very reliable in isolation but if you average it over a larger sample then it gives you a general trend. Not sure what our average xG is this season but I don't expect it to be high.
 

sullydnl

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In itself I wouldn't take much notice of xG from one game. However given Everton also had one fewer shot than us and one more shot inside the box, I'd be happy to take all that information together as confirmation of what our eyes likely told us anyway: Everton were about as likely to win that game as we were, despite us having more possession and nominally being the better team.
 

anant

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I agree it's not very reliable in isolation but if you average it over a larger sample then it gives you a general trend. Not sure what our average xG is this season but I don't expect it to be high.

Agreed, over a long enough period xG normalizes itself.

We're, I think the 4th highest.