Another thing is how can a team outperform their expected goals? If you score a goal, it means it's a chance. It's not like the other team is putting the ball in the net for you.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer | W15 D2 L4
- Thread starter Tom Van Persie
- Start date
It represents the probability of a shot being a goal on average.
Well explained. I guess the point would be can you depend on these kind of clinical finishes (a product of your quality, yes) or would you regress because you are not creating enough clear cut (clearer cut) chances (which would also be a product of your quality)
It would be interesting to see how Liverpools graph is compared to Citys. My point being I would expect Liverpools XG to be low too (similar to our XG vs points) as they don't appear to be the same attacking verve team as opposed to City whose XG I expect to be higher as they seem to be better at creating so many chances.
I hate how xG is used by some people to anaylse a single chance or a single game. It's useless at doing this. A shot from 6 yards, with a players strong foot and only the keeper to beat might have a declared xG of 0.5, but this 0.5 is only an average of lots of shots that mostly weren't actual 0.5 xG chances. Some would be 0.1, some would be 0.5, some would be 0.9.
But when a player faces de Gea, difficult chance becomes non-existent, and many easy chances become difficult ones. Does this xGoal account for de Gea ability?
Yeah bottom line is football isn't great for analytics. And I love using data when analyzing other sports, but there are too many variables to where you can use numbers to accurately predict future performance with what we have available today.
Isn't the 0.5 based on being in that same position on the strong foot? So 50% of chances will be missed/scored. The 0.1s will be in a worse position.
If it was the other way round and we had missed the early chances for Shurrle and Mitrovic we would be saying we should have done better.
We clearly have a weakness in defence and have done all season. It should be where our resources mainly go in the summer.
This cant be right, according to this we average more shots on goal pr game
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/8400387/man-utd-solskjaer-stats-boring-mourinho/
And a lot more fast breaks, and counter attacks are usually good chances
https://www.caughtoffside.com/2019/02/05/man-united-fast-breaks-solskjaer-vs-mourinho-stats/
I have no idea how xG is calculated, but even a blind person could see we are looking more dangerous now than before. Games like Tottenham and Leichester you could argue we were fortunate to get all three points, but considering how utterly toothless and impotent we looked under Mouhrino this season it seems absurd our "expected goals" are the same
I had a look at our xG on understated.com/team/Manchester_United/2018 and Barring Spurs, Leicester, and Fulham (which we clearly won at a canter) we didn't have a worse xG.
Leicester was a weird one I personally think we deserved the win despite being poor. I think the xG was increased by a large number of long shots and 2 big chances that were more awkward than the xG accounts for, our goal, for example, was surprisingly low too 0.37 despite being a goal you'd say should be scored 9/10. The Spurs match fair enough the xG at least shows what they should have done.
I think xG doesn't take into account the fact that better players will score goals that have lower numbers more often. Aguero near post above the goalie I'd almost put my house on him scoring one of those but it'll be an extremely low goal likelihood because most players wouldn't score them, whereas I'd call that Aguero's signature goal.
In the graph, points based on xG or xPTS(expected points 
I know) is calculated by xG and xGA(expected goal against) each match. You can use this website understat.com/league/EPL, choose the start date at Dec 22rd, 2018 for more details. You can see that it's true we created a lot chances, therefore we have the second best xG. Our problem is we also conceded many chances, xGA 11.29 means that we should've conceded 11 but actually we only conceded 6 thanks to De Gea and the opposition's bad finishing.
So basically, we attacked very well, second best in the league, and got a dodgy defense, nothing we didn't know really.
Also I used to laugh at xG when I saw that Fulham got more xG than we did in the last match, but because a lot of people talk about it, so have to learn a bit, turn out it's not that stupid.
I know) is calculated by xG and xGA(expected goal against) each match. You can use this website understat.com/league/EPL, choose the start date at Dec 22rd, 2018 for more details. You can see that it's true we created a lot chances, therefore we have the second best xG. Our problem is we also conceded many chances, xGA 11.29 means that we should've conceded 11 but actually we only conceded 6 thanks to De Gea and the opposition's bad finishing.So basically, we attacked very well, second best in the league, and got a dodgy defense, nothing we didn't know really.
Also I used to laugh at xG when I saw that Fulham got more xG than we did in the last match, but because a lot of people talk about it, so have to learn a bit, turn out it's not that stupid.
Well, if they analyse 10,000 "similar" shots, and the average of all these produced the 0.5 xG, people mistakenly interpret it as every "similar" shot from there should be a 50/50 chance.
But there will be plenty of times that a shot from that position is actually only a 10% chance, depending on micro-details probably not factored into the xG calculation like ball spin, player/keeper balance, tiredness etc, and other times that these factors fall in the striker's favour, making it an 80% chance or whatever. They might average out to 50% over the 10,000 shots, but it still doesn't give any real clue as to the xG of one individual shot.
If he lost a game pundits will eat him.
Graphs? Really? 
Typical eh? PSG lost their best players pre-match, ours are dropping during the match. Really don't want Mata on the RW 
Not going to judge him on tonight. Frankly the quality of our team is miles behind the likes of PSG.
Bit of a reality check of how far off the top sides we really are tonight.
PSG simply a better team but Tuchel played a blinder.
Regardless of injuries or player personnel, Tuchel is a level above Ole tactically, they've basically cut out Pogba and controlled it from there.
He’ll learn. But Alexis and Mata our wide agaisnt a fast countering team as PSG are set up tonight is a big big mistake. Yes the subs had to be made, but clear as day Young and Shaw needed support - Alexis and Shaw can’t offer that.
Naive today
Agree
It is not a mistake, it is our lack of depth, we have no natural wingers in our squad.
Failed tonight’s test. The one that really mattered.
Not really, whoever said we were better than PSG? Anyone?
But what else can he do? Our strength in depth is piss poor. Our options are Sanchez, Lukaku, and Mata. Whoever he brings on is going to be next to useless against PSG
He isn't a manager for the Elite level - yet. This has been a tactical loss really.
And his football, even in the first half, has looked dated and lacking vision.
Hopefully a wake up call to the board - Ole could be one for the future, but he isn't ready yet.
And his football, even in the first half, has looked dated and lacking vision.
Hopefully a wake up call to the board - Ole could be one for the future, but he isn't ready yet.
It’s his mistake to put Mata our wide at any stage. We all know Matas weakness and that is exposed greatly here. It’s a bad call by him, could have picked Rom and ask Rash to fill in our wide if Rom didn’t track back. A needs must.
Did you see the pre-match bullishness? People were predicting routs!
Hell, a solid 1/4 people who filled in the score predictor on here thought we'd score at least 3 tonight.
Not going to blame him he can only do so much with the players at his disposal
We had a decent top 4 league team but quality wise we’re miles off in the champions league.
We had a decent top 4 league team but quality wise we’re miles off in the champions league.
Yes, but Mata on instead of Lukaku is a major tactical blunder for sure.
He can bring on Fred and push Pog even further up. Bring on Rom and ask Rash to do us a favor out wide. Mata offers zero out wide attacking or defending - pointless against the pace of PSG
Lukaku should have came on instead of Mata. He has pace. Mata looks too slow tonight.
Well, of the hat trick of big games this was by far the least important. If you offered me a loss today for wins over Chelsea and Liverpool I'd bite your hand off.
Absolute nonsense to be putting this defeat on Ole though. PSG injuries or not we still have the weaker starting eleven and that's been compounded by our own crippling first half injuries.
The next two games are Ole's acid test and will pretty much define his job prospects.
Absolute nonsense to be putting this defeat on Ole though. PSG injuries or not we still have the weaker starting eleven and that's been compounded by our own crippling first half injuries.
The next two games are Ole's acid test and will pretty much define his job prospects.
This!
I feel that’s more reflective about the general mood of the team and enjoying the football right now rather than people truly thinking we were going to thrash them.
This is the reason why we should make a call next month. Really getting schooled here. A much better PSG lost at Anfield and dropped points against Napoli
Serious question would you guys really want Ole now? not even just on this loss but in general. United next appointment is so and I cant emphasize this enough SO important or United risk falling into Liverpool levels of shet and really falling behind the other teams in the League. Ole is a great guy and everyone loves him but is he the right choice ?
Really poor subs. Not bringing on Lukaku has come to bite him in my eyes. Rashford vs Bernat was calling out for it, and Lukaku could be more physical against their three center backs.
It’s a shame with the injuries
It’s a shame with the injuries
Well yes, I suppose you could call this reminder of what the level is something like a reality check...