You won’t often see me type anything about ‘full cost’ and outlay, but beyond a certain age and quality of player (the offset of decline), it’s an extremely important factor in assessing whether making such a move is a good or bad idea. This is the age of the last mega contract in Europe for most players and they need assurances, security and incentive to move otherwise most stay where they are, or they’ve already planned for said final contract by having their current one run down to its end or where they call the shots on what is viable because they can talk to other clubs on their terms with their current club risking losing them for free or at least getting a considerably reduced fee ( hello RVP) on what would have been if they were halfway through their current contract (hello Watkins).
I think Kane was the obvious anomaly as even in his final year, and even with his age at the time, he would have cost an English club over £100m and still was sold for a fortune abroad. But as I said before S and A tier players are different; their slide is factored in and they remain lethal on the way down for a much longer period of time, and depending how clear of the pack they were in the first place, their bad/awful is going from elite/top dog to being very, very good or very good, so they offset risk differently. On top of that, they are a well of experience and know-how for others to learn and develop their own game from. They generally bring a lot more to the table beside their quality. Watkins is none of these things. He’s a not far above average player and his potential slide (when his athleticism betrays him) isn’t something I would back for the outlay. It’s just too much of a gamble. To your bolded, what is a good deal for Watkins? Bearing in mind he does have a good thing going in a more successful team than ours who are not going to give up their status quo because we come begging for “a fair price”. We’re a rival who could prove to be a hindrance to their own ambitions, so not only would it be prudent to stick it to us on that score, but also for the very real fact that’s taking a chunk of their goals away. Unless their PSR issues force their hand, there is no reason at all for them to do us a favour, especially one that could come back to haunt them.
