Our defense

[CG1010]

A widely held opinion amongst United fans (including me) is that our defense needs fixing. Especially we need a new commanding CB next season to be competitive. The starting of the season was obviously terrible where we let in 12 goals in 3 games but it was always a case of lack of match fitness and Maguire's head still in Greece. But it is interesting to see the evolution of defensive performance over the course of the season:

Matchday	Goals against	Matchday	Goals against	Matchday	Goals against	Matchday	Goals against
1	3​	11	0​	21	0​	31	1​
2	3​	12	2​	22	0​
3	6​	13	2​	23	3​
4	1​	14	2​	24	1​
5	0​	15	0​	25	1​
6	1​	16	1​	26	0​
7	1​	17	0​	27	0​
8	0​	18	0​	28	0​
9	2​	19	1​	29	0​
10	1​	20	2​	30	1​

From matchday 4-14, we conceded 12 goals in 11 games, which is more of less same as average of 1 goal a game conceded we had in 2019-20. In other words no improvement at all over last season.

However since matchday 15, all the way from 30th December, we have let in only 11 goals in 17 games. That's 0.65 goals per game. Its better than anyone has managed in the PL including City. Basically it is title winning defensive form (if only our attack hadn't gone downhill so rapidly). And I am not including other competitions in this. In Europa league, we didn't let Sociedad score a single goal in two legs and limited AC Milan to 1 goal in two legs. What felt initially like a upturn in form is increasingly becoming much more solid evidence across a meaningful set of matches. It is seeming a bit like second of last season (post-Bruno) where we consistently improved our attacking performances.

What has led to this improvement? One possible reason is Dean Henderson. He has started last 5 PL games where we have conceded only 2 goals. Certainly the likes of Maguire and Lindelof look much less stressed knowing they have a keeper who can help out a bit in terms of claiming crosses etc. Or it could be better defending on set pieces or emergence of Shaw (which Maguire alluded to in the past). Another reason could be Ole prioritising sitting back a bit at the cost of our attacking threat. It certainly feels we are scoring fewer goals in last few months although it could just be due to lack of form of most of our attacking players.

Can we rely on this performance to go into the next season? Given the limited transfer budget, can we afford to ignore buying a new CB and focus on strengthening other areas of the team?

 

[Gator Nate]

Yes, multiple factors.

Given that Ole has used the 4-2-3-1 almost exclusively this year, I'd like to see who the starting 2 midfielders (i.e. McTominay/Fred, Matic/Fred, etc.) are in each of those matches. And that goes for goals scored, as well. Perhaps a clear pattern emerges. Perhaps not, might depend on the opponent.

I do believe Dean's command of the box is better, and he'll even come out like a Bundesliga keeper and sweep, something De Gea would almost never do. His shot stopping prowess over the last several matches was on par with De Gea.

With Greenwood seeming to be regaining his confidence, I really liked the front 4 we had out against Spurs. Having a real option on the right and a genuine central striker truly opens up our offensive capabilities.

As for the transfer window, it's hard to say. We need another option up front, and if Cavani leaves, we need two. Martial is a huge question mark, too. He hasn't been the same since the red card in the first Spurs match.

Defensively, I think we have a lot fewer question marks. With Bailly returning soon, we have backups for either sides, and two backups for the middle. Heck, Tuanzebe can put in a shift at CB, RB, or DM.

 

[MattJ166]

Interesting stats, i think as the post above has mentioned that it could be due to tightening up our formation and being harder to beat come the business end of the season. Is there anyway that you could do a similar table for goals scored / big chances created to provide a more holistic view?

I do think Henderson has helped, his ability to communicate effectively and have the confidence to come out and claim balls must inspire the defenders more so than De Gea.

I think this transfer window is invaluable, we cannot have another like this seasons, we need to get a top quality centre forward ala Kane and a decent defensive midfielder so we don't have to play two players to do that role. I'd be happy (well not happy per se) if we did not get a RW this season and gave time to greenwood if we got the two positions above.

 

[::sonny::]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[USREDEVIL]

Our defense recently has been pretty solid. I think it's mainly due to Lindelof being in good form. But there's two factors I think still cause us to want to upgrade on Lindelof. First, he's not that good in the air. Second, he ain't much quicker than Maguire so we need to have 2 midfield covers whereas maybe we could due with one if we had a quicker CB and/or a better quality CDM. Isn't that the prevailing opinion?

 

[SirMattlives]

The data are interesting for sure. I do feel the numbers suggest we're improved but I still feel nervous every time a set play puts the ball into our box. Is that our system or our players? Or am I just conditioned to this because of some horror events?

 

[Crashoutcassius]

We will prob be fine with mcfred midfield. Ddg also has a mistake in him, altho I actually think he has had a fine season. I could see dean keeping confidence up around him

 

[USREDEVIL]

The data are interesting for sure. I do feel the numbers suggest we're improved but I still feel nervous every time a set play puts the ball into our box. Is that our system or our players? Or am I just conditioned to this because of some horror events?

It's lindelof. Seems like he is ALWAYS beaten to the ball by the attacker.

 

[Teja]

Hmm.. I'm wary of dicing things too finely. You can get pretty selective with what games you pick and exclude. That said I have an entry below for all of 20/21, an entry with the freak 1-6 discarded and another entry with the first 3 games removed.

xGA = Expected goals against.

My narrative is that we generally have had ~1 xGA per game on average since we've signed Maguire and AwB. That is fairly close to title winning teams of the seasons past (Pool + a fit Van Dijk =~ 1xGA per game over the season). Of course xGA is only part of the story - if you have an attack / midfield that's good and can keep teams pinned back through out the game, then the xGA value will drop as well.

Season	xGA per game	Rank
2020 / 21	1.16 (all games included)	5th
2020 / 21	1.04 (w/o the freak 6-1)	4th
2020 / 21	~1 (w/o the first 3 wks)	3rd
2019 / 20	0.98	3rd
2018 / 19	1.26	8th best (Jose's 3rd season)
2017 / 18	1.04	5th best

Some additional interesting samples:

Team	xGA
City 20/21	0.76
Pool 19/20	1.05
Pool 18/19	0.78
City 18/19	0.67
City 17/18	0.605

I think most of City's success can be attributed to the Guardiola press / focus on possession. Liverpool are probably a better benchmark for us stats wise and we come pretty close to Pool post Van Dijk.

 

[Foxbatt]

The defense is not our biggest concern. It's the midfield. We need to upgrade on Fred and McTominay. Then a striker.

 

[Abraxas]

I am not too unhappy with the starting defence. I think it's widely acknowledged that Lindelof is not the best player in the world and perhaps some attributes short of an ideal player for us in this team. But he does have his qualities and ultimately the defence has improved and can mostly be relied upon. I do think Maguire/Lindelof leaves you having to make a few compromises elsewhere.

The issue is we have to find somebody that is definitively better that is worth pursuing over and above the other weaknesses in the squad. When you see some of the names we are linked to, it's a massive question mark that they add anything but depth to our defence. The likes of Ben White, Andersen, Milenkovic and a few others - you would hope our scouts know best but it's not obvious you're getting much in the way of an upgrade, certainly it's far from proven by any stretch. They look more like punts considering the ongoing Bailly doubts, Jones being on his way out, and Tuanzebe having a lot to prove. So it appears to me that we are looking more in the direction of depth/replacements at the moment. Maybe there is something in the background that is more first team orientated but this is my reading based on current links.

Which probably suggests the management are reasonably satisfied with things. The feeling is there that we would like to do something but there doesn't seem to be a hotbed of major talent out there that is jumping out, so maybe we have to nurture somebody younger, or less proven from a different league. In that situation they're probably not going to immediately oust Lindelof in the way people imagine.

 

[Ekeke]

Henderson certainly improved on De Gea, as did Maguire improve after some poor form. Fullbacks have been good all season and Lindelof has probably been our best CB on the ball, but same as usual off of it.

We also have a great record in the games Bailly came into the team so having that cover was a big improvement

 

[Iron]

Our defence was ok this season, not great, not terrible. However I think its the maximum they can achieve, and next season might get worse perfomances. Neither of the back 4 are world class, Maguire is no Ferdinand.