PL Top scorer: 40-goal season possible?

Fortitude

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Between the ridiculously short handover from last season ending to this one starting preventing teams from getting their defensive drills in order and attackers seemingly feeling less pressure due to their being no baying fans on their back, goal-scoring rates seem to have taken a considerable upturn.

There are currently six players with a 1:1 GPG average or better, and then, in behind them, another four on 0.8:1 or so. Obviously, five games played is no real extrapolation point, but at the same time, the way teams are playing and with how thick and fast games are coming round, is there reason to assume this overwhelming imbalance between attack and defence will see any let up?

Current scoring table:


RankNameGoalsGLAssistsAPlayedPGoals per 90Mins per GoalMPGTotal ShotsGoal ConversionShot Accuracy
1Son Heung-Min
Tottenham Hotspur
7251.67541164%82%
1Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Everton
7051.47611839%67%
3Mohamed Salah
Liverpool
6051.20751540%73%
4Harry Kane
Tottenham Hotspur
5751.01892223%59%
4Jamie Vardy
Leicester City
5041.2771683%83%
6Callum Wilson
Newcastle United
4150.811111040%50%
6Neal Maupay
Brighton & Hove Albion
4150.801131233%67%
6Sadio Mané
Liverpool
4041.03881331%62%
6Danny Ings
Southampton
4050.801131040%80%
6Wilfried Zaha
Crystal Palace
4050.80113667%67%


I'm guessing fatigue, and/or injury are the bigger obstacles to forwards than defenders and defenses keeping them in check. Is 40 goals in a season for someone(s) a possibility, or do you think we'll see a tapering period (for whatever reason) that brings expectancy back down to the low 30's or high 20's or are we on course for a record-breaking season?
 

Paxi

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Absolutely. If Kane can stay fit, he could get around that. Especially with the amount of penalties that's been handed out and if the same volume of penalties given continues.
 

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Absolutely. If Kane can stay fit, he could get around that. Especially with the amount of penalties that's been handed out and if the same volume of penalties given continues.
Good point re penalties. I haven't even been following much of La Liga results, but my memory tells me there hasn't been that many high scoring matches/shock results, as there's been in the EPL?
 

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Between the ridiculously short handover from last season ending to this one starting preventing teams from getting their defensive drills in order and attackers seemingly feeling less pressure due to their being no baying fans on their back, goal-scoring rates seem to have taken a considerable upturn.

There are currently six players with a 1:1 GPG average or better, and then, in behind them, another four on 0.8:1 or so. Obviously, five games played is no real extrapolation point, but at the same time, the way teams are playing and with how thick and fast games are coming round, is there reason to assume this overwhelming imbalance between attack and defence will see any let up?

Current scoring table:


RankNameGoalsGLAssistsAPlayedPGoals per 90Mins per GoalMPGTotal ShotsGoal ConversionShot Accuracy
1Son Heung-Min
Tottenham Hotspur
7251.67541164%82%
1Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Everton
7051.47611839%67%
3Mohamed Salah
Liverpool
6051.20751540%73%
4Harry Kane
Tottenham Hotspur
5751.01892223%59%
4Jamie Vardy
Leicester City
5041.2771683%83%
6Callum Wilson
Newcastle United
4150.811111040%50%
6Neal Maupay
Brighton & Hove Albion
4150.801131233%67%
6Sadio Mané
Liverpool
4041.03881331%62%
6Danny Ings
Southampton
4050.801131040%80%
6Wilfried Zaha
Crystal Palace
4050.80113667%67%


I'm guessing fatigue, and/or injury are the bigger obstacles to forwards than defenders and defenses keeping them in check. Is 40 goals in a season for someone(s) a possibility, or do you think we'll see a tapering period (for whatever reason) that brings expectancy back down to the low 30's or high 20's or are we on course for a record-breaking season?
The only thing I think could prevent this is the fact the fixtures are so tightly congested for the whole season. So I’d be surprised to see any player play virtually all the prem games. Will be someone like Salah or Kane if it happens but they would need to avoid kind of injury.
 

James Peril

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Salah and Kane are the only ones capable of this, that’s with perfect seasons playing every game and never getting injured. For Salah it’s possible as he’s a specimen of some sort, Kane will get his annual breakdown as he’s overplayed. Remember, Mourinho is nothing without his excuses. No chance in hell for any other player, they just aren’t good enough. I think maybe one of the two above can break 30, but not both. Calvert-Lewin will be lucky to break 20, he’s on a purple patch. Saying that, he’s actually well ahead of schedule and lesser players have notched 20+ in the past. I would be amazed if any United-player breaks 20 goals this year. Vardy will get his 22-24 goals, Watkins at Villa will end up around 15-17, Aubameyang around 20, Werner 20-25, but perhaps nothing out of the ordinary. Injuries and fatigue will mess up the crazy numbers in the end, we’ll get lesser goals on average as yesterday’s games kind of showed us.
 

nokillingmoths

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Salah and Kane are the only ones capable of this, that’s with perfect seasons playing every game and never getting injured. For Salah it’s possible as he’s a specimen of some sort, Kane will get his annual breakdown as he’s overplayed. Remember, Mourinho is nothing without his excuses. No chance in hell for any other player, they just aren’t good enough. I think maybe one of the two above can break 30, but not both. Calvert-Lewin will be lucky to break 20, he’s on a purple patch. Saying that, he’s actually well ahead of schedule and lesser players have notched 20+ in the past. I would be amazed if any United-player breaks 20 goals this year. Vardy will get his 22-24 goals, Watkins at Villa will end up around 15-17, Aubameyang around 20, Werner 20-25, but perhaps nothing out of the ordinary. Injuries and fatigue will mess up the crazy numbers in the end, we’ll get lesser goals on average as yesterday’s games kind of showed us.
Aguero?
 

SilentWitness

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I think DCL and Son will finish on 20-25.

Kane if he stays injury free could hit 35.
 

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Michael Cox was saying that generally strikers are outperforming their xg at the moment, which is largely why there have been so many goals. The shot conversion ratios in that table are ridiculously high and I can't see them getting sustained all season. 20-25% is normally a solid conversion ratio for a forward. I imagine it'll settle down at some point.
 

tomaldinho1

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Think we'll easily see 30+ with new penalty rules, 40+ if a good striker can stay fit for a whole season maybe.
 

tomaldinho1

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Michael Cox was saying that generally strikers are outperforming their xg at the moment, which is largely why there have been so many goals. The shot conversion ratios in that table are ridiculously high and I can't see them getting sustained all season. 20-25% is normally a solid conversion ratio for a forward. I imagine it'll settle down at some point.
That's probably just Kepa skewing the stats :lol:
 

SiRed

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Salah and Kane are the only ones capable of this, that’s with perfect seasons playing every game and never getting injured. For Salah it’s possible as he’s a specimen of some sort, Kane will get his annual breakdown as he’s overplayed. Remember, Mourinho is nothing without his excuses. No chance in hell for any other player, they just aren’t good enough. I think maybe one of the two above can break 30, but not both. Calvert-Lewin will be lucky to break 20, he’s on a purple patch. Saying that, he’s actually well ahead of schedule and lesser players have notched 20+ in the past. I would be amazed if any United-player breaks 20 goals this year. Vardy will get his 22-24 goals, Watkins at Villa will end up around 15-17, Aubameyang around 20, Werner 20-25, but perhaps nothing out of the ordinary. Injuries and fatigue will mess up the crazy numbers in the end, we’ll get lesser goals on average as yesterday’s games kind of showed us.
I remember saying this about Kane 5 or 6 years ago - and then Vardy a couple of seasons after!
 

balaks

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If Kane can stay fit then 40 is possible, he has proved that he is capable of those sorts of numbers. Aguero could hit 30+ for sure also if he can stay fit. Outside of those two I can't see it.
 

DWelbz19

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Agree that Salah and Kane are the only ones with previous who could possibly do it; Salah got 44 goals in all comps in 17/18 and Kane got 41 that same season. Aguero’s never broken 40+ in all comps in one season.

Still... I don’t think either will. 40 goals in the PL is mental, even in this current iteration of football. The most either got in the PL alone was 32 and 30 respectively. And the 32 was Salah at his peak and I don’t think he’ll ever hit that level again.
 

troylocker

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I think Salah and Kane are capable of 30+, but not 40. Noone else capable in the PL right now.
 

Fortitude

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RankNameGoalsGLAssistsAPlayedPGoals per 90Mins per GoalMPGTotal ShotsGoal ConversionShot Accuracy
1Son Heung-MinSon Heung-Min
Tottenham HotspurTottenham
8271.30691362%77%
1Dominic Calvert-LewinCalvert-Lewin
EvertonEverton
8071.18762138%67%
3Jamie VardyVardy
Leicester CityLeicester
7161.34671164%82%
3Mohamed SalahSalah
LiverpoolLiverpool
7071.00902133%67%
5Harry KaneKane
Tottenham HotspurTottenham
6870.871042623%54%
5Patrick BamfordBamford
Leeds UnitedLeeds
6170.93972425%54%
5Callum WilsonC Wilson
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle
6170.871041346%54%
8Danny IngsIngs
SouthamptonSouthampton
5270.721251338%69%
8Wilfried ZahaZaha
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5170.711261145%64%
10Jack GrealishGrealish
Aston VillaAston Villa
4460.671351040%70%
10Sadio ManéMané
LiverpoolLiverpool
4160.681331724%59%
10Neal MaupayMaupay
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
4160.671351331%69%
10Ollie WatkinsWatkins
Aston VillaAston Villa
4160.671351331%54%
10Raúl JiménezJiménez
Wolverhampton WanderersWolves
4070.571571921%47%
 

DRM

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Salah and Kane most likely but I think they will fall short slightly.
 

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Not possible. Not with the schedule as they won't be physically capable of playing every game and some like Son/Kane/Salah are going to be over played and that will either result in him being knackered or getting injured. Probably both.

Wait till it starts getting cold and thats when we'll see a lot of injuries start happening. Kane and Salah have both completed 870minutes so far this season, they can't keep playing at this rate and the schedule isn't letting up anytime soon.
 

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I think the aseptic atmosphere with no fans is conducive to better finishing, i expect that to continue, if not at the current rates though. That, plus the seemingly increased frequency of penalties might do it. Question is whether the 2-3 players who can pull that off(kane, salah, aguero...) will play enough for it
 

Fortitude

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How come Vardy isn't being mentioned? He's more likely to do it than anyone else but Salah, imo.
 

OleBoiii

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32 is the record in the modern era(2000 and up), if I'm not mistaken? 8 more is certainly a lot, but it's not impossible.

I reckon it's more possible than ever because of VAR. If your team is good enough around the box then it's not inconceivable to get 15-20 goals on penalties alone. If you're the main goalscorer then you're halfway there.
 

Adam-Utd

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32 is the record in the modern era(2000 and up), if I'm not mistaken? 8 more is certainly a lot, but it's not impossible.

I reckon it's more possible than ever because of VAR. If your team is good enough around the box and then it's not inconceivable to get 15-20 goals on penalties alone. If you're the main goalscorer then you're halfway there.
Yeah that's true, if your main goalscorer is the pen taker also then you can probably ask for 8 extra goals in penalties alone across a season.
 

Fortitude

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Because he plays for leicester
That's precisely why he would be the most likely. All their goals go through him. Everything is funneled to him to finish. He also takes the penalties and he plays non-stop without really dipping in form. He's also a phenomenal performer against the best sides, let alone his output against the remainder.

Injury/fatigue accepted; everything is in his favour, imo.
 

giorno

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That's precisely why he would be the most likely. All their goals go through him. Everything is funneled to him to finish. He also takes the penalties and he plays non-stop without really dipping in form. He's also a phenomenal performer against the best sides, let alone his output against the remainder.

Injury/fatigue accepted; everything is in his favour, imo.
It's leicester. He's not going to score more than 50% of their goals, and they aren't scoring 85 goals
 

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If Suarez took pens instead of Gerrard in 2013/14 he may could have done it?
 

DWelbz19

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Vardy's goalscoring stats are similar to Aguero, with a little more minutes played every year.

Vardy's highest 5 PL tallies: 24; 20; 23; 18; 13.
Aguero's: 26; 24; 20; 21; 21.

Neither are likely, in my opinion. Vardy for the reasons Giorno states above, and Aguero for simple fitness issues and the fact he has never hit a 40+ season in all comps ever.
 

DWelbz19

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If Suarez took pens instead of Gerrard in 2013/14 he may could have done it?
Maybe? Some basic stats: Suarez got 31 goals that season. Gerrard scored 10 penalties that season and missed 1.

Suarez's all-time penalty record is 53 taken, 44 scored, 9 missed. That's a success rate of about 83%? 83% of 11 penalties is 9, so if we assume he took every penalty Gerrard did and scored at his usual penalty rate, he would've scraped 40 goals. But that's his success rate as of today, feck checking what it was up until 2013/14.
 

TheLord

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I think we will see one or two strikers breaching the 40+ barrier in a normal COVID-19 free "non-congested" season with the current penalty rules.

But that will be in 2022 at the latest.

There's absolutely no chance of anyone doing that this season.

A prime Suarez (taking penalties), a prime Aguero, a prime Kane....
 

giorno

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If Suarez took pens instead of Gerrard in 2013/14 he may could have done it?
He almost certainly would have

I see somebody already run the numbers. So, yeah, likely he would have