Potential Matic Replacements

Adnan

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It's weird to ask an opinion from a direct rival supporter in North Holland. He might be still salty with him after this heartbreaking lost

He had no problem praising other players from direct rivals. And he doesn't come across as bitter, and why should he be, when Ajax have come out on top against their Eredevisie rivals on a consistent basis.
 

Number32

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He had no problem praising other players from direct rivals. And he doesn't come across as bitter, and why should he be, when Ajax have come out on top against their Eredevisie rivals on a consistent basis.
It's still bias since AZ have positive trends in the last couple of years developing their own talent.
I watched Ajax vs AZ last month, Ajax won but the commentator said it's feel like a big North Holland derby win for them. AZ was playing better with a younger squad, they even beat PSV and Feyenoord back to back.

That account is promoting Ajax own talents, and sometimes overating them for the sake of their price tag. Safe to say his point of view towards Koopmeiners like what we though about Gerrard compare to Carrick.
 

Adnan

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It's still bias since AZ have positive trends in the last couple of years developing their own talent.
I watched Ajax vs AZ last month, Ajax won but the commentator said it's feel like a big North Holland derby win for them. AZ was playing better with a younger squad, they even beat PSV and Feyenoord back to back.

That account is promoting Ajax own talents, and sometimes overating them for the sake of their price tag. Safe to say his point of view towards Koopmeiners like what we though about Gerrard compare to Carrick.
What he said about Koopmeiners was fair. I'm a United supporter and have said in the past that Koopmeiners would struggle against the press. And what I said then, is now being corroborated by some Dutch fans, who say he shit the bed for the Dutch u21s when pressed if you scroll back and see the post from @VanDeBank
 

Ekeke

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My GF is a PSV fan so I've seen (too) many of their games. Sangare loses the ball more often than he wins it. I've seen plenty of games where his pass completion rate is barely above 50%. He creates loads of chances for the opposition by giving the ball away in dangerous areas when he's not under pressure. And mind you, this is for a team that finished second. He's one of the reasons they're looking to buy back Brighton's Davy Propper, who has played a total of 5 games this season.

I have my doubts on Koopmeiners as well. He completely shit the bed in the u21 euro. He struggles with a press and high tempo. Maybe he could adapt, but the step up from a no pressure club like AZ to us cannot be overstated.
Something to consider but hes better at dribbling and running the ball and obviously his main strength is that he's a massive unit who wins the ball a lot. I'm not sure what more you'd expect from someone who would probably cost around 10 million euros max and do a specific ball winning job as with someone like Ndidi
 

Leftback99

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Neves could be a decent pickup while Wolves stock is down this season.
 

Mainoldo

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Posted this in the Tielemans thread, there's something really dodgy here, Leicester fans think he's off.

Rather he stayed. Just means a potential top Prem club might be getting him. Image him at Liverpool. That could be a Prem title again.
 

Diabovermelho

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Can't see us selling Matic and not signing a replacement... But with the money set to go for Sancho and a CB, whoever we bring, it'll be on a budget.
 

bucky

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The more I watch of Cheick Doucouré, the more I think he would be a very smart signing for us. Good positioning, smart with his passing and very good workrate. Shouldn't cost as much either and is only 21. Could be the ideal Matic replacement.
 

justsomebloke

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I've compiled some stats for the most frequently mentioned CM targets (from fbref.com), as well as for Fred and McTominay.

The stats go into three different categories, to judge three different aspects of the players:

- GREEN - attacking contribution. These are: Expected goals+ expected assist pr. 90 minutes played, Shot creatin actions/90 and Touches in attacking 3rd of the pitch/90.

- BLUE - defensive and pressing contribution. These are: Pass completion, Presses/90, success rate of presses and Tackles+Interceptions/90

- ORANGE - ability to move the ball forward. These are: Progressive passing distance/90, progressive passes/90, Touches/90 and Progressive carries/90.

Of course you can argue the selection of stats, but I think these give a reasonable basis without being too complex. Looking at the yields some interesting and in part unexpected observations I think.

Fred, and to a lesser degree Mctominay, aren't so easy to improve upon as many think, on the basis of these stats. Across all three categories, Fred is actually one of the best players in this group. McTominay is more in the lower end, but he is equal to or better than several of the players talked about as upgrades.

OFFENSIVELY Locatelli and Llorente are the two players who offer more than Fred, while Kessie is comparable. Rice, Arambarri and Kamara are all statistically significantly worse than McTominay in these three offensive categories.

PROGRESSING THE BALL: The only player significantly better than Fred or McTominay in these categories is Locatelli, who is really, really good. Kessie, Rice, Llorente and Arambarri are all considerably to greatly worse than McFred at moving the ball forward.

DEFENSIVELY/PRESSING: Fred actually has better stats here than any of the other players. Camavinga and Kamara are closest. Kessie and Rice are slightly weaker than McTominay, while Llorente and Arambarri are much weaker.


90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Eduardo Camavinga
25,7​
0,11​
89,1​
4914​
191,2​
90​
3,5​
1,56​
410,0​
16,0​
597​
23,2​
28,8​
126​
4,9​
1851​
72,0​
163​
6,3​
Franck Kessie
34,8​
0,42​
89,1​
8081​
232,2​
123​
3,5​
2,18​
488,0​
14,0​
513,0​
14,7​
29,6​
106​
3,0​
2386​
68,6​
165​
4,7​
Fred
26,6​
0,17​
88,2​
7561​
284,2​
149​
5,6​
2,52​
454,0​
17,1​
639​
24,0​
31,3​
135​
5,1​
2092​
78,6​
116​
4,4​
Manuel Locatelli
31​
0,25​
87,6​
13093​
422,4​
259​
8,4​
2,74​
561​
18,1​
443,0​
14,3​
30,0​
123​
4,0​
3052​
98,5​
181​
5,8​
McTominay
23,7​
0,13​
87,3​
5711​
241,0​
104​
4,4​
1,4​
334​
14,1​
348​
14,7​
30,7​
99​
4,2​
1581​
66,7​
125​
5,3​
Boubakar Kamara
31,2​
0,06​
87,2​
9367​
300,2​
143​
4,6​
1,99​
284,0​
9,1​
513,0​
16,4​
34,9​
127​
4,1​
2347​
75,2​
126​
4,0​
Declan Rice
31​
0,14​
86,4​
5966​
192,5​
93​
3,0​
1,58​
322,0​
10,4​
473​
15,3​
30,2​
142​
4,6​
1758​
56,7​
162​
5,2​
Ruben Neves
28,7​
0,25​
84,3​
8042​
280,2​
130​
4,5​
2,12​
376,0​
13,1​
560,0​
19,5​
33,4​
130​
4,5​
2231​
77,7​
117​
4,1​
Marcos Llorente
32​
0,29​
82,2​
4153​
129,8​
93​
2,9​
2,35​
655,0​
20,5​
633,0​
19,8​
29,5​
104​
3,3​
1680​
52,5​
153​
4,8​
Mauro Arambarri
33,1​
0,13​
70,1​
4295​
129,8​
88​
2,7​
1,63​
452,0​
13,7​
744,0​
22,5​
25,7​
129​
3,9​
1470​
44,4​
100​
3,0​
 

justsomebloke

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I've compiled some stats for the most frequently mentioned CM targets (from fbref.com), as well as for Fred and McTominay.

The stats go into three different categories, to judge three different aspects of the players:

- GREEN - attacking contribution. These are: Expected goals+ expected assist pr. 90 minutes played, Shot creatin actions/90 and Touches in attacking 3rd of the pitch/90.

- BLUE - defensive and pressing contribution. These are: Pass completion, Presses/90, success rate of presses and Tackles+Interceptions/90

- ORANGE - ability to move the ball forward. These are: Progressive passing distance/90, progressive passes/90, Touches/90 and Progressive carries/90.

Of course you can argue the selection of stats, but I think these give a reasonable basis without being too complex. Looking at the yields some interesting and in part unexpected observations I think.

Fred, and to a lesser degree Mctominay, aren't so easy to improve upon as many think, on the basis of these stats. Across all three categories, Fred is actually one of the best players in this group. McTominay is more in the lower end, but he is equal to or better than several of the players talked about as upgrades.

OFFENSIVELY Locatelli and Llorente are the two players who offer more than Fred, while Kessie is comparable. Rice, Arambarri and Kamara are all statistically significantly worse than McTominay in these three offensive categories.

PROGRESSING THE BALL: The only player significantly better than Fred or McTominay in these categories is Locatelli, who is really, really good. Kessie, Rice, Llorente and Arambarri are all considerably to greatly worse than McFred at moving the ball forward.

DEFENSIVELY/PRESSING: Fred actually has better stats here than any of the other players. Camavinga and Kamara are closest. Kessie and Rice are slightly weaker than McTominay, while Llorente and Arambarri are much weaker.


90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Eduardo Camavinga
25,7​
0,11​
89,1​
4914​
191,2​
90​
3,5​
1,56​
410,0​
16,0​
597​
23,2​
28,8​
126​
4,9​
1851​
72,0​
163​
6,3​
Franck Kessie
34,8​
0,42​
89,1​
8081​
232,2​
123​
3,5​
2,18​
488,0​
14,0​
513,0​
14,7​
29,6​
106​
3,0​
2386​
68,6​
165​
4,7​
Fred
26,6​
0,17​
88,2​
7561​
284,2​
149​
5,6​
2,52​
454,0​
17,1​
639​
24,0​
31,3​
135​
5,1​
2092​
78,6​
116​
4,4​
Manuel Locatelli
31​
0,25​
87,6​
13093​
422,4​
259​
8,4​
2,74​
561​
18,1​
443,0​
14,3​
30,0​
123​
4,0​
3052​
98,5​
181​
5,8​
McTominay
23,7​
0,13​
87,3​
5711​
241,0​
104​
4,4​
1,4​
334​
14,1​
348​
14,7​
30,7​
99​
4,2​
1581​
66,7​
125​
5,3​
Boubakar Kamara
31,2​
0,06​
87,2​
9367​
300,2​
143​
4,6​
1,99​
284,0​
9,1​
513,0​
16,4​
34,9​
127​
4,1​
2347​
75,2​
126​
4,0​
Declan Rice
31​
0,14​
86,4​
5966​
192,5​
93​
3,0​
1,58​
322,0​
10,4​
473​
15,3​
30,2​
142​
4,6​
1758​
56,7​
162​
5,2​
Ruben Neves
28,7​
0,25​
84,3​
8042​
280,2​
130​
4,5​
2,12​
376,0​
13,1​
560,0​
19,5​
33,4​
130​
4,5​
2231​
77,7​
117​
4,1​
Marcos Llorente
32​
0,29​
82,2​
4153​
129,8​
93​
2,9​
2,35​
655,0​
20,5​
633,0​
19,8​
29,5​
104​
3,3​
1680​
52,5​
153​
4,8​
Mauro Arambarri
33,1​
0,13​
70,1​
4295​
129,8​
88​
2,7​
1,63​
452,0​
13,7​
744,0​
22,5​
25,7​
129​
3,9​
1470​
44,4​
100​
3,0​
Player by player:

FRED Statistically speaking, Fred is very near top of this group across the three categories, placing very high in all three of them. xg+xa/90 and progressive carries/90 are really the only categories where his stats are in the weaker end.

MCTOMINAY is smack in the middle of the group. Offensive contribution, which is lower-end, is his weakest area, while he compares well with most of the other players in defence/pressing and, surprisingly, in his ability to progress the ball. The main negative thing to note is he's not near the top of the group in any individual stat. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and presses/90.

CAMAVINGA is in the top segment in defensive and pressing, very solid in ball progression, but not impactful in the attacking categories. His best categories are pass completion, presses/90, tackles+interceptions/90 and progressive carries/90. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90 and progressive distance in passing/90.

KESSIE is good to okay across all three categories. Offensive contribution is his best. His best stats are xg+xa/90 (where he outperforms everyone else by a considerable distance), and pass completion. His weakest are successful presses and tackles + interceptions/90.

LOCATELLI is the standout player for ball progression, near the top offensively and okay defensively. His standout stats are progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90 and touches/90 (where he hugely outperformed everyone else) as well as shot creating actions/90, where he's very significantly ahead of everybody but Fred (who is close). He is also very good in pass completion, touches in offensive 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90. His main weakness is pressing (fewer presses/90 than any of the others), and tackles + interceptions/90, where he's close to the bottom.

KAMARA is certainly not an all-round contributor, judging from the stats. He brings very little offensively, but is very good progressing the ball and among the best defensively. His success rate in pressing is the best of all these players. His other best areas are progressive distance/90 and progressive passes/90. The weak areas are a bit more numerous: He has by far the lowest xg+xa/90, at an almost non-existent 0,06, and touches in the attacking 3rd/90 (9,1). Doesn't bring much in shot creating actions/90 or progressive carries/90 either.

RICE does not look good at all from these stats - Okay defensively, but definitely lower end both in attacking contribution and in terms of progressing the ball. In fact, he looks a good deal weaker than both Fred and McTominay, pretty much across the board. That may illustrate the limitations of (these) stats, but on the other hand it's hard to find in this any support for why we'd spend 70 million or more on him. His numbers aren't really high end for any stat. His biggest weak areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, shot-creating actions/90, touches in the attacking 3rd/90, Presses/90 and Touches/90.

NEVES comes over as OK in attacking contribution, and very good in ball progression and defence/pressing. He's neither top or bottom in anything. He's best areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, success rate of pressing and touches/90. His weakest areas are touches in the attacking 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90.

LLORENTE looks like arguably the best offensive player of them all, but is very weak in progressing the ball and offers little defensively. His best stats are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and touches in the attacking 3rd/90. His weakest areas are Touches/90 (the fewest of all players listed here), pass completion, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, Presses/90, success rate of presses and tackles+interceptions/90.

ARAMBARRI is just awful, ranking at or near the bottom across all three categories, often by a very substantial margin. His only strong stat is really presses/90. I won't even bother to list his weak ones, they are most of the rest.

Those are just the main outlines of what these stats appear to indicate, lots more could of course be said in interpreting them, adding to them, explaining them, contradicting them or adding context to them (f.e. the connection between Neves' outlook and how Wolves play). But briefly in conclusion:


1. LET'S GET LOCATELLI!
Not only does he look like the best player in this selection, he also has as some of his best traits the same things that are Fred's worst traits. Excellent offensively, elite in ball progression and perfectly okay defensively. Put him beside Fred or McTominay, and things will look good.

2. If it's really a DM we want, it's Camavinga or Kamara. Preferably the former, who at 18 will have more all-round potential.

3. Other than Locatelli, Llorente and Kessie has the most to offer if we're looking for someone to step into the role we'd hoped Pogba would fill as a no 8, and deliver attacking impact. But they both offer limited input to other aspects of the game, and Llorente looks like a friggin defensive liability, and a complete non-factor in transition play. We can't have that in our midfield pivot. What I like best about Kessie is his absurdly good xg+xa/90.

4. Whatever we do, please don't spend 70 or even 50m on Declan Rice, or buy Mauro Arambarri at all.
 
Last edited:

jamesjimmybyrondean

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@justsomebloke Appreciate the effort. I too would love Locatelli. He's the perfect partner for Fred. He's not only performed at club level but international also from what I heard. What concerns me is that we are not really in for a DM. Locatelli for example has been linked by reliable reporters to City and Juventus. Bissouma also has been linked to Arsenal and Liverpool by reliable reports. Same thing with Tchouameni. These are the hottest DM prospects right now and none of these reliable journalists have linked any with us. Only Rice and i think that's just cause of the circumstance(British, Possible Lingard swap etc) and is impossible due to price

I think if we get a DM it will be a cheap punt to replace Matic and we only spend some decent amount if it's Pogba we are replacing. I personally wouldn't mind us selling Pogba. Not cause I don't like or rate him but because it would make us a balanced side. Right now Pogba's place in the team is as a left wing playmaker where he is most effective and as a deep lying playmaker at the double pivot.

Pogba for me is replaceable. If Sancho comes in he can effectively replace Pogba as that left wing playmaker as that is Sancho's speciality. Getting Locatelli would also mean we effectively have replaced Pogba's deep playmaking at the double pivot with added quality of Locatelli being more defensively astute than Pogba. We'd have replace Pogba's quality and also finally balanced the squad

However I can see Ole looking at the squad and budget and saying we can do without a DM. He's played Pogba VdB Mctominay and Fred in the double pivot and probably sees it as possible and enough options going forward
 

justsomebloke

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Possibly, but I hope not! To me, the central pivot now looks like the part of the team that limits our potential the most. And, improving that comes down to finding someone better than McTominay to partner Fred. It's not going to be Matic, and I don't think it's going to be Pogba either. Even if you bring in someone more purely defensive than Fred, the other player in the pivot needs to handle defensive responsibilities well and also to make a strong contribution in link-up and transition play, and Pogba just doesn't. Donny is of course a possibility, but I've no stats from which to judge. He's spent too much time playing further forward this season to make his United stats viable for a comparison, and I don't have his Ajax stats.
 

Lux Thunder

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@justsomebloke lovely read, great effort. Always thought that both Locatelli and Camavinga represent better value in the market than, for example, Rice, and this is a good indicator. Also, we would be facing real competition if we are in for any of them. Apparently, Locatelli is on PSG and Juventus list and Camavinga is of interest for Bayern and also, PSG, possibly Real Madrid.

Don't know if there is any source that links us with Brozovic, but would be interesting to see how his stats are compared to those targets. He seems to me as very good at passing, maybe not so progressive, with a great work rate.
 

sideshow_bob

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@justsomebloke good post bro. With you on Locatelli. Would be awesome for us.

If you have the time, how do these players fare statswise against our McFred? :

1) Tchouameni
2) Mikel Merino
3) Kalvin Phillips
4) Bentancur
5) Brozovic
 
Last edited:

Lash

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@justsomebloke good post bro. With you on Locatelli. Would be awesome for us.

If you have the time, how do these players fare statswise against our McFred? :

1) Tchouameni
2) Mikel Merino
3) Kalvin Phillips
4) Bentancur
5) Brozovic
As a follower of la Real, would very happily have him. He's come on massively from Newcastle, where admittedly I thought he was quite good anyway!

Edit: Just FYI, he wouldn't be a Matic replacement. Plays more like Scott.
 
Last edited:

bsCallout

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Player by player:

FRED Statistically speaking, Fred is very near top of this group across the three categories, placing very high in all three of them. xg+xa/90 and progressive carries/90 are really the only categories where his stats are in the weaker end.

MCTOMINAY is smack in the middle of the group. Offensive contribution, which is lower-end, is his weakest area, while he compares well with most of the other players in defence/pressing and, surprisingly, in his ability to progress the ball. The main negative thing to note is he's not near the top of the group in any individual stat. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and presses/90.

CAMAVINGA is in the top segment in defensive and pressing, very solid in ball progression, but not impactful in the attacking categories. His best categories are pass completion, presses/90, tackles+interceptions/90 and progressive carries/90. His weakest areas are xg+xa/90 and progressive distance in passing/90.

KESSIE is good to okay across all three categories. Offensive contribution is his best. His best stats are xg+xa/90 (where he outperforms everyone else by a considerable distance), and pass completion. His weakest are successful presses and tackles + interceptions/90.

LOCATELLI is the standout player for ball progression, near the top offensively and okay defensively. His standout stats are progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90 and touches/90 (where he hugely outperformed everyone else) as well as shot creating actions/90, where he's very significantly ahead of everybody but Fred (who is close). He is also very good in pass completion, touches in offensive 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90. His main weakness is pressing (fewer presses/90 than any of the others), and tackles + interceptions/90, where he's close to the bottom.

KAMARA is certainly not an all-round contributor, judging from the stats. He brings very little offensively, but is very good progressing the ball and among the best defensively. His success rate in pressing is the best of all these players. His other best areas are progressive distance/90 and progressive passes/90. The weak areas are a bit more numerous: He has by far the lowest xg+xa/90, at an almost non-existent 0,06, and touches in the attacking 3rd/90 (9,1). Doesn't bring much in shot creating actions/90 or progressive carries/90 either.

RICE does not look good at all from these stats - Okay defensively, but definitely lower end both in attacking contribution and in terms of progressing the ball. In fact, he looks a good deal weaker than both Fred and McTominay, pretty much across the board. That may illustrate the limitations of (these) stats, but on the other hand it's hard to find in this any support for why we'd spend 70 million or more on him. His numbers aren't really high end for any stat. His biggest weak areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, shot-creating actions/90, touches in the attacking 3rd/90, Presses/90 and Touches/90.

NEVES comes over as OK in attacking contribution, and very good in ball progression and defence/pressing. He's neither top or bottom in anything. He's best areas are xg+xa/90, progressive distance/90, success rate of pressing and touches/90. His weakest areas are touches in the attacking 3rd/90 and progressive carries/90.

LLORENTE looks like arguably the best offensive player of them all, but is very weak in progressing the ball and offers little defensively. His best stats are xg+xa/90, shot creating actions/90 and touches in the attacking 3rd/90. His weakest areas are Touches/90 (the fewest of all players listed here), pass completion, progressive distance/90, progressive passes/90, Presses/90, success rate of presses and tackles+interceptions/90.

ARAMBARRI is just awful, ranking at or near the bottom across all three categories, often by a very substantial margin. His only strong stat is really presses/90. I won't even bother to list his weak ones, they are most of the rest.

Those are just the main outlines of what these stats appear to indicate, lots more could of course be said in interpreting them, adding to them, explaining them, contradicting them or adding context to them (f.e. the connection between Neves' outlook and how Wolves play). But briefly in conclusion:


1. LET'S GET LOCATELLI!
Not only does he look like the best player in this selection, he also has as some of his best traits the same things that are Fred's worst traits. Excellent offensively, elite in ball progression and perfectly okay defensively. Put him beside Fred or McTominay, and things will look good.

2. If it's really a DM we want, it's Camavinga or Kamara. Preferably the former, who at 18 will have more all-round potential.

3. Other than Locatelli, Llorente and Kessie has the most to offer if we're looking for someone to step into the role we'd hoped Pogba would fill as a no 8, and deliver attacking impact. But they both offer limited input to other aspects of the game, and Llorente looks like a friggin defensive liability, and a complete non-factor in transition play. We can't have that in our midfield pivot. What I like best about Kessie is his absurdly good xg+xa/90.

4. Whatever we do, please don't spend 70 or even 50m on Declan Rice, or buy Mauro Arambarri at all.
Thanks for that. Based on that I think I'd rather go with Camavinga with DVB & Pogba potential partners in most games and Fred or McT against the big guns.
 

sideshow_bob

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As a follower of la Real, would very happily have him. He's come on massively from Newcastle, where admittedly I thought he was quite good anyway!
Yes thought he was pretty decent at Newcastle, & would happily have him at United too!

Because he's tall guy & labelled as a DM, I initially expected him to be in the Ndidi/Fellaini bruiser mould, but his ability to carry the ball out from the back has really taken me by surprise.
 
Last edited:

justsomebloke

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As a follower of la Real, would very happily have him. He's come on massively from Newcastle, where admittedly I thought he was quite good anyway!

Edit: Just FYI, he wouldn't be a Matic replacement. Plays more like Scott.
Yes, but one of my points here is exactly that what we should look to add in the midfield is an upgrade on McTominay, on the assumption that we'll continue to play a balanced pivot rather than a defensive midfielder to complement Pogba in a more offensive role. Though in squad terms, Matic would be the one needing to move out to make room (if anyone).
 

justsomebloke

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Thanks for that. Based on that I think I'd rather go with Camavinga with DVB & Pogba potential partners in most games and Fred or McT against the big guns.
Why, though? DVB is a wild card I'll agree, but by all indications Fred is generally a much more effective player in the pivot than Pogba is. Also, Pogba is in most settings better playing up front on the flank than he is in the pivot. Camavinga is an upgrade on McT generally, but he doesn't seem to be an upgrade on Fred in the immediate term. Offensively, he provides considerably less and pressing-wise/defensively too, for the most part. By statistical indications, at least.

What looks like the best solution to me is to get a player to partner Fred in the top pivot pairing, and use McTominay and DVB as backup options - with Pogba perhaps used occasionally against weaker teams.
 

bsCallout

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Why, though? DVB is a wild card I'll agree, but by all indications Fred is generally a much more effective player in the pivot than Pogba is. Also, Pogba is in most settings better playing up front on the flank than he is in the pivot. Camavinga is an upgrade on McT generally, but he doesn't seem to be an upgrade on Fred in the immediate term. Offensively, he provides considerably less and pressing-wise/defensively too, for the most part. By statistical indications, at least.

What looks like the best solution to me is to get a player to partner Fred in the top pivot pairing, and use McTominay and DVB as backup options - with Pogba perhaps used occasionally against weaker teams.
Defensively Camavinga is better than all of them, we then want a ball player next to him VDB and Pogba are both better than the rest at that.
 

MadMike

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Good stat analysis @justsomebloke.

Personally agree that the double pivot might be here to stay and that neither Pogba nor Donny can do that role well enough to partner McTominay or Fred. Of our two pivots McTominay seems to be the one more limited and easily replaceable.

My vote for a while has been going to Kessie because I see him as a very good all rounder who's been building good experience at AC Milan. I believe he could work well with Fred. I tend to take a couple of other things into account that are not reflected in stats. For example physique. Kessie doesn't look like he would struggle in the EPL to me, he's strong and quick. Whereas for example Locatelli could struggle a bit like Jorginho or Fred did when they first got here. Another thing is how people cope with pressure. For example Lingard could not cope with the pressure at United but he's shining at West Ham. Kessie did well for Atalanta and the moved to AC, a club with big expectations, and he's doing very well there too while also being their penalty taker. These things show me a strong character, something I also liked in Bruno Fernandes when he was considered for a transfer from Sporting.

I wouldn't be opposed to Rice since EPL experience matters hugely to me, but not at above 50m prices which is what we might be quoted from West Ham.
 
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Lash

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Yes, but one of my points here is exactly that what we should look to add in the midfield is an upgrade on McTominay, on the assumption that we'll continue to play a balanced pivot rather than a defensive midfielder to complement Pogba in a more offensive role. Though in squad terms, Matic would be the one needing to move out to make room (if anyone).
Very good point actually, although you may get pelters for implying Fred is actually not that bad!
 

justsomebloke

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Defensively Camavinga is better than all of them, we then want a ball player next to him VDB and Pogba are both better than the rest at that.
Well, on these stats at least, he isn't quite as good as Fred defensively, and also probably not better than Kamara. And I'm not all that sure either VdB or Pogba are better than most of the rest of the players listed here in what we might call the "ball-playing" elements.

I didn't include DvdB or Pogba in this overview because they've spent too much time playing elsewhere than the pivot, which will affect their numbers. But for what it's worth, I did look at their numbers.

VdB has excellent figures in the offensive categories, but you'd expect that given that he has mostly been playing up front. In ball progression, he's got pretty much worse figures than anyone in the above table. You'd probably expect that from someone playing further up when it comes to progressive distance of passing (where he is bottom of the list), but not so much when it comes to the number of progressive passes/90 (where he is also bottom), touches/90 (where he is third worst) or progressive carries (where he is second worst).

Pogba at least has a bigger share of his game time spent in the pivot than DvB does. Also, it's possible to look at his figures for last season, when he spent a greater share of his time in the pivot. Looking at both of those set, the question is, which PP are we going to get next season? Because for these stats, he's figures were soooo much better last season than they are this season.

90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Paul Pogba
21,1​
0,2​
82,8​
5036​
238,7​
111​
5,3​
3,23​
519​
24,6​
299,0​
14,2​
33,1​
62​
2,9​
1657​
78,5​
147​
6,967​
Paul Pogba 19-20
13,4​
0,35​
85,8​
4790​
357,5​
109​
8,1​
4,34​
287,0​
21,42​
165,0​
12,3​
35,2​
29​
2,2​
1178​
87,9​
73​
5,448​
vd Beek (Man utd)
4,8​
0,26​
83​
561​
116,9​
6​
1,3​
2,28​
107,0​
22,29​
83​
17,3​
27,7​
16​
3,333​
280​
58,3​
16​
3,333​

Last season, his figures in the offensive categories were terrific - probably the best of any player in this selection. Possibly also for ball progression, at least he is on the same level as Locatelli this season. But defensively/pressing they were awful, and also for a couple of stats worse than they've been this year. His figures this year are generally considerably below last year's. The question is how does that distribute between the games where he's played in the pivot and games where he's played on the left? Also, how much of that is his post-Covid poor form? Eye-test wise, he's seemed to struggle more in the pivot than when he's played up front. This is a pivotal (ahaha) issue - if you believe Pogba is viable in the pivot, that would require a heavier emphasis on defence in his partner. The trouble of course is that it seems to be difficult to find someone much better than Fred. :) And can you really get an effective pivot with two players who are very unbalanced in their skills? I don't think either the offensive or the defensive part of the job - and definitely not the transition/link-up part of the job - can be essentially done by one of them.
 

bsCallout

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Well, on these stats at least, he isn't quite as good as Fred defensively, and also probably not better than Kamara. And I'm not all that sure either VdB or Pogba are better than most of the rest of the players listed here in what we might call the "ball-playing" elements.

I didn't include DvdB or Pogba in this overview because they've spent too much time playing elsewhere than the pivot, which will affect their numbers. But for what it's worth, I did look at their numbers.

VdB has excellent figures in the offensive categories, but you'd expect that given that he has mostly been playing up front. In ball progression, he's got pretty much worse figures than anyone in the above table. You'd probably expect that from someone playing further up when it comes to progressive distance of passing (where he is bottom of the list), but not so much when it comes to the number of progressive passes/90 (where he is also bottom), touches/90 (where he is third worst) or progressive carries (where he is second worst).

Pogba at least has a bigger share of his game time spent in the pivot than DvB does. Also, it's possible to look at his figures for last season, when he spent a greater share of his time in the pivot. Looking at both of those set, the question is, which PP are we going to get next season? Because for these stats, he's figures were soooo much better last season than they are this season.

90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Paul Pogba
21,1​
0,2​
82,8​
5036​
238,7​
111​
5,3​
3,23​
519​
24,6​
299,0​
14,2​
33,1​
62​
2,9​
1657​
78,5​
147​
6,967​
Paul Pogba 19-20
13,4​
0,35​
85,8​
4790​
357,5​
109​
8,1​
4,34​
287,0​
21,42​
165,0​
12,3​
35,2​
29​
2,2​
1178​
87,9​
73​
5,448​
vd Beek (Man utd)
4,8​
0,26​
83​
561​
116,9​
6​
1,3​
2,28​
107,0​
22,29​
83​
17,3​
27,7​
16​
3,333​
280​
58,3​
16​
3,333​

Last season, his figures in the offensive categories were terrific - probably the best of any player in this selection. Possibly also for ball progression, at least he is on the same level as Locatelli this season. But defensively/pressing they were awful, and also for a couple of stats worse than they've been this year. His figures this year are generally considerably below last year's. The question is how does that distribute between the games where he's played in the pivot and games where he's played on the left? Also, how much of that is his post-Covid poor form? Eye-test wise, he's seemed to struggle more in the pivot than when he's played up front. This is a pivotal (ahaha) issue - if you believe Pogba is viable in the pivot, that would require a heavier emphasis on defence in his partner. The trouble of course is that it seems to be difficult to find someone much better than Fred. :) And can you really get an effective pivot with two players who are very unbalanced in their skills? I don't think either the offensive or the defensive part of the job - and definitely not the transition/link-up part of the job - can be essentially done by one of them.
You win. How did Bissouma stack up?

I definitely feel we need a much stronger defensive player than Fred even he does seem good on the stats in that regard.
 

justsomebloke

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Good stat analysis @justsomebloke.

Personally agree that the double pivot might be here to stay and that neither Pogba nor Donny can do that role well enough to partner McTominay or Fred. Of our two pivots McTominay seems to be the one more limited and easily replaceable.

My vote for a while has been going to Kessie because I see him as a very good all rounder who's been building good experience at AC Milan. I believe he could work well with Fred. I tend to take a couple of other things into account that are not reflected in stats. For example physique. Kessie doesn't look like he would struggle in the EPL to me, he's strong and quick. Whereas for example Locatelli could struggle a bit like Jorginho or Fred did when they first got here. Another thing is how people cope with pressure. For example Lingard could not cope with the pressure at United but he's shining at West Ham. Kessie did well for Atalanta and the moved to AC, a club with big expectations, and he's doing very well there too while also being their penalty taker. These things show me a strong character, something I also liked in Bruno Fernandes when he was considered for a transfer from Sporting.

I wouldn't be opposed to Rice since EPL experience matters hugely to me, but not at above 50m prices which is what we might be quoted from West Ham.
I agree, there are intriguing intangibles to Kessie. And his terrific xg+xa kind of tells the same story as what we saw in the first EL game against AC Milan: Of someone you could well envision as scoring big goals for a big club with regularity. Not much of a tackler or presser though.
 

justsomebloke

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You win. How did Bissouma stack up?

I definitely feel we need a much stronger defensive player than Fred even he does seem good on the stats in that regard.
Didn't check Bissouma, I'm afraid. And I was also surprised that Fred's stats were so good, to be honest.
 

bsCallout

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Didn't check Bissouma, I'm afraid. And I was also surprised that Fred's stats were so good, to be honest.
Based simply on the eye test I really like the idea of seeing Bissouma and Garner next to eachother. Think stylistically they suit each other.
 

Sea-Cow

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@justsomebloke Appreciate the effort. I too would love Locatelli. He's the perfect partner for Fred. He's not only performed at club level but international also from what I heard. What concerns me is that we are not really in for a DM. Locatelli for example has been linked by reliable reporters to City and Juventus. Bissouma also has been linked to Arsenal and Liverpool by reliable reports. Same thing with Tchouameni. These are the hottest DM prospects right now and none of these reliable journalists have linked any with us. Only Rice and i think that's just cause of the circumstance(British, Possible Lingard swap etc) and is impossible due to price

I think if we get a DM it will be a cheap punt to replace Matic and we only spend some decent amount if it's Pogba we are replacing. I personally wouldn't mind us selling Pogba. Not cause I don't like or rate him but because it would make us a balanced side. Right now Pogba's place in the team is as a left wing playmaker where he is most effective and as a deep lying playmaker at the double pivot.

Pogba for me is replaceable. If Sancho comes in he can effectively replace Pogba as that left wing playmaker as that is Sancho's speciality. Getting Locatelli would also mean we effectively have replaced Pogba's deep playmaking at the double pivot with added quality of Locatelli being more defensively astute than Pogba. We'd have replace Pogba's quality and also finally balanced the squad

However I can see Ole looking at the squad and budget and saying we can do without a DM. He's played Pogba VdB Mctominay and Fred in the double pivot and probably sees it as possible and enough options going forward
Good post. And I fear you are probably right. We desperately need upgrades in center midfield, but I can understand the argument that other positions need to be strengthened first.
 

justsomebloke

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BISSOUMA: Offensively, not much better than Kamara. Has a third of Fred's xg+xA, and half of McTominays. Either lower end or middle of the pack in ball progression. Mixed bag defensively - lower end for presses/90, good pass completion, high end for successful presses and progressive carries. I guess that means better than Rice, but not better than a lot of other options.

BENTANCUR: Good offensively (high end Shot creating actions, otherwise middle pack). On par with Fred, Neves and Kamara for ball progression. Close to the best in defensive/pressing too.

TCHOUAMENI: Doesn't seem to bring much offensively. Good on ball progression though. Excellent defensively - in fact, best stats of anyone for successful presses and tackles+interceptions.

MERINO: Remarkably well-rounded player, good across all categories. Offensive stats, top-end across the board. Good in ball progression too. A little less so for defensive/pressing, but not much.

PHILLIPS: Is basically Scott McTominay. :) They come out very similar in each of the three categories.

BROZOVIC: High-end across the board in the 3 attacking stats. Absolutely top end for ball-progression stats, second only to Locatelli. Okay defensive stats.

90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Yves Bissouma
34,6​
0,06​
87,2​
5414​
156,5​
114​
3,3​
1,5​
458,0​
13,24​
540,0​
15,6​
34,6​
174​
5,029​
2098​
60,6​
157​
4,538​
Rodrigo Bentancur
25,8​
0,13​
89,2​
8150​
315,9​
171​
6,6​
2,56​
385,0​
14,92​
537,0​
20,8​
29,4​
122​
4,729​
2122​
82,2​
99​
3,837​
Aurelien Tchouameni
34​
0,18​
83,8​
7186​
211,4​
162​
4,8​
1,59​
440,0​
12,94​
656,0​
19,3​
36,7​
206​
6,059​
2299​
67,6​
151​
4,441​
Mikel Merino
23,9​
0,24​
76,2​
5367​
224,6​
140​
5,9​
2,17​
428,0​
17,91​
454,0​
19​
33,3​
90​
3,766​
1516​
63,4​
95​
3,975​
Kalvin Phillips
27​
0,15​
82,8​
7192​
266,4​
104​
3,9​
2,15​
307,0​
11,37​
638,0​
23,6​
30,1​
123​
4,556​
1770​
65,6​
60​
2,222​
Marcelo Brozovic
28,7​
0,22​
88​
11652​
406,0​
204​
7,1​
3​
563,0​
19,62​
534,0​
18,6​
28,8​
91​
3,171​
2518​
87,7​
151​
5,261​


 

Mark Pawelek

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BISSOUMA: Offensively, not much better than Kamara. Has a third of Fred's xg+xA, and half of McTominays. Either lower end or middle of the pack in ball progression. Mixed bag defensively - lower end for presses/90, good pass completion, high end for successful presses and progressive carries. I guess that means better than Rice, but not better than a lot of other options.

BENTANCUR: Good offensively (high end Shot creating actions, otherwise middle pack). On par with Fred, Neves and Kamara for ball progression. Close to the best in defensive/pressing too.

TCHOUAMENI: Doesn't seem to bring much offensively. Good on ball progression though. Excellent defensively - in fact, best stats of anyone for successful presses and tackles+interceptions.

MERINO: Remarkably well-rounded player, good across all categories. Offensive stats, top-end across the board. Good in ball progression too. A little less so for defensive/pressing, but not much.

PHILLIPS: Is basically Scott McTominay. :) They come out very similar in each of the three categories.

BROZOVIC: High-end across the board in the 3 attacking stats. Absolutely top end for ball-progression stats, second only to Locatelli. Okay defensive stats.

90sxg+xa/90cmp%PrgDistPrgDist/90ProgProg/90SCA90ta3ta3/90PressesPr/90Press %Tkl+IntT+I/90TouchesTo/90Prog ca.PC/90
Yves Bissouma
34,6​
0,06​
87,2​
5414​
156,5​
114​
3,3​
1,5​
458,0​
13,24​
540,0​
15,6​
34,6​
174​
5,029​
2098​
60,6​
157​
4,538​
Rodrigo Bentancur
25,8​
0,13​
89,2​
8150​
315,9​
171​
6,6​
2,56​
385,0​
14,92​
537,0​
20,8​
29,4​
122​
4,729​
2122​
82,2​
99​
3,837​
Aurelien Tchouameni
34​
0,18​
83,8​
7186​
211,4​
162​
4,8​
1,59​
440,0​
12,94​
656,0​
19,3​
36,7​
206​
6,059​
2299​
67,6​
151​
4,441​
Mikel Merino
23,9​
0,24​
76,2​
5367​
224,6​
140​
5,9​
2,17​
428,0​
17,91​
454,0​
19​
33,3​
90​
3,766​
1516​
63,4​
95​
3,975​
Kalvin Phillips
27​
0,15​
82,8​
7192​
266,4​
104​
3,9​
2,15​
307,0​
11,37​
638,0​
23,6​
30,1​
123​
4,556​
1770​
65,6​
60​
2,222​
Marcelo Brozovic
28,7​
0,22​
88​
11652​
406,0​
204​
7,1​
3​
563,0​
19,62​
534,0​
18,6​
28,8​
91​
3,171​
2518​
87,7​
151​
5,261​
Isn't Tchouameni really a defender playing as CDM? I wonder what TFM and/or Axel Tuanzebe would look like with a year a CDM stats behind them?

Did you get your stats from fbref.com? I have a go myself with some more realistic targets.
 

Mark Pawelek

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@justsomebloke lovely read, great effort. Always thought that both Locatelli and Camavinga represent better value in the market than, for example, Rice, and this is a good indicator. Also, we would be facing real competition if we are in for any of them. Apparently, Locatelli is on PSG and Juventus list and Camavinga is of interest for Bayern and also, PSG, possibly Real Madrid.

Don't know if there is any source that links us with Brozovic, but would be interesting to see how his stats are compared to those targets. He seems to me as very good at passing, maybe not so progressive, with a great work rate.
Football Italia say "Inter put PSG target Brozovic on the market". Brozovic's contract expires in 2022. Looks like Inter won't meet his wage demands for a new contract. Value in the market option? £20m

Apart from Rice, Camavinga, and Bellingham, I'm not sure there are any CDMs United are linked to!, and I'm not sure Camavinga is a CDM.
 

lawliet354

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BISSOUMA: Offensively, not much better than Kamara. Has a third of Fred's xg+xA, and half of McTominays. Either lower end or middle of the pack in ball progression. Mixed bag defensively - lower end for presses/90, good pass completion, high end for successful presses and progressive carries. I guess that means better than Rice, but not better than a lot of other options.

BENTANCUR: Good offensively (high end Shot creating actions, otherwise middle pack). On par with Fred, Neves and Kamara for ball progression. Close to the best in defensive/pressing too.

TCHOUAMENI: Doesn't seem to bring much offensively. Good on ball progression though. Excellent defensively - in fact, best stats of anyone for successful presses and tackles+interceptions.

MERINO: Remarkably well-rounded player, good across all categories. Offensive stats, top-end across the board. Good in ball progression too. A little less so for defensive/pressing, but not much.

PHILLIPS: Is basically Scott McTominay. :) They come out very similar in each of the three categories.

BROZOVIC: High-end across the board in the 3 attacking stats. Absolutely top end for ball-progression stats, second only to Locatelli. Okay defensive stats.

Please no, he's been absolutely wank every time I watch him this season, directly responsible for that Porto defeat as well. Seems to have regressed a lot his year.

If people are frustrated about Fred and Mctominay ball playing abilities, they'll be more frustrated watching Bentancur
 

Teja

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Aug 17, 2014
Messages
5,701
Good stat analysis @justsomebloke.

Personally agree that the double pivot might be here to stay and that neither Pogba nor Donny can do that role well enough to partner McTominay or Fred. Of our two pivots McTominay seems to be the one more limited and easily replaceable.

My vote for a while has been going to Kessie because I see him as a very good all rounder who's been building good experience at AC Milan. I believe he could work well with Fred. I tend to take a couple of other things into account that are not reflected in stats. For example physique. Kessie doesn't look like he would struggle in the EPL to me, he's strong and quick. Whereas for example Locatelli could struggle a bit like Jorginho or Fred did when they first got here. Another thing is how people cope with pressure. For example Lingard could not cope with the pressure at United but he's shining at West Ham. Kessie did well for Atalanta and the moved to AC, a club with big expectations, and he's doing very well there too while also being their penalty taker. These things show me a strong character, something I also liked in Bruno Fernandes when he was considered for a transfer from Sporting.

I wouldn't be opposed to Rice since EPL experience matters hugely to me, but not at above 50m prices which is what we might be quoted from West Ham.
100% Agree with this. We were discussing in a different thread but Kessie seems like the full package and not just a pure destroyer and yes he'd be a great incremental upgrade over McT. Just the sheer volume of defensive work Fred does cannot be easily replicated by anyone else not named Kante, so despite his limitations (i.e., sometimes gives the ball away cheaply and in dangerous areas), I think he'll be a fixture next season.

If we sign Rice, we'd have to change tactics and there will be some trial and error there while we set up our new system. Do we force Rice into our current #8 role as we did with Matic before he got dropped? I remember a game against Arsenal last year where the press was totally disjoint in the first half because Matic was just too deep during transition and wouldn't normally occupy the position high up the pitch that Fred does. He got told to push up high in the 2nd half and did but then got bypassed extremely easily because he's not very mobile. The same might happen to Rice as well. On the other hand we could play a 4-3-3. However, if we do that, Bruno will be more restricted from his almost second striker like role he plays right now. Success isn't guaranteed even if Rice is twice the player the Caf makes him out to be and system changes have a tendency to derail an entire season.

We have a system that works - two #8s who provide the workrate, press high, get back to shield the defence and lay it off to the front four. All we need is a bit more composure when playing against basically the very best pressing teams in Europe (e.g., City / Pool / RBL etc.). Only a part of this can be provided by new players, most of the work is on Ole / the coaching staff to figure out ways to beat these sides.