Predict the top 6 in order. 2021/22.

cyberman

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What you are saying is you personally believe the price of 9/1 for us to win the league is wrong. Individuals/institutions who bet serious money on these things from their own analysis disagree, otherwise we would see the price come down like you say.
That’s not how it works though. It’s a long term bet that means it isn’t appealing and most serious bettors would wait until the window is shut and assess how teams are playing before ploughing in.
If we win our first 4 games we wouldn’t be 9/1. That doesn’t mean a lot of serious money went on us or we suddenly proved ourselves to be title contenders because we beat Leeds and Southampton.
You're wrong but I'm not derailing the thread any more.
I waited until the first big win from an outsider to reaffirm my point. Utd are now 6/1 to win the league with one win before anybody else played. That’s why premier league winners odd mean feck all before a ball is kicked
 

Leftback99

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I waited until the first big win from an outsider to reaffirm my point. Utd are now 6/1 to win the league with one win before anybody else played. That’s why premier league winners odd mean feck all before a ball is kicked
Not sure what your point is? We won convincingly and with that new information the price has changed. Or did you expect us to stay at 9/1 all season?
 

Rojofiam

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If they thought that 9/1 shot was actually a 1/1 shot by their analysis then they definitely would be tying up large amounts of money. If the odds move in their favour like you suggest, (eg. We are 5/1 after the first 3 games) they can 'cash out'.
Cashing out is actually one of the worst -EV decisions you can make in the betting world (99% of the time at least). Also, bookmakers do make mistakes but a 1/1 true chance will never be a 9/1 odds so I suppose you aren't serious with that example.

Trust me, United were massively undervalued before the start of the season, at one point we were around 9.5 to win the League while City were 1.66 and Chelsea around 5 - 5.50.
 

Leftback99

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Cashing out is actually one of the worst -EV decisions you can make in the betting world (99% of the time at least). Also, bookmakers do make mistakes but a 1/1 true chance will never be a 9/1 odds so I suppose you aren't serious with that example.

Trust me, United were massively undervalued before the start of the season, at one point we were around 9.5 to win the League while City were 1.66 and Chelsea around 5 - 5.50.
Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
 

Rojofiam

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Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
You can check my earlier posts, I've said the exact same thing before the season started, so it's not about hindsight.

And no, I did not take this bet, but I should have.
 

TrustInJanuzaj

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Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
To be fair you just seem determined to say Utd should be outside odds when we really shouldn’t be.
 

Leftback99

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You can check my earlier posts, I've said the exact same thing before the season started, so it's not about hindsight.

And no, I did not take this bet, but I should have.
I don't doubt you did but people who put their money on the line didn't agree, hence those were the prices.
 

Leftback99

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To be fair you just seem determined to say Utd should be outside odds when we really shouldn’t be.
I believe we're 4th favourites and so do the prices available. Interpret that however you want.

Go ahead and make your fortune if you know better.
 

TrustInJanuzaj

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I believe we're 4th favourites and so do the prices available. Interpret that however you want.

Go ahead and make your fortune if you know better.
Meh better to be under appreciated and underrated anyway. I think we will prove people wrong this season.
 

Leftback99

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Meh better to be under appreciated and underrated anyway. I think we will prove people wrong this season.
I hope you're right. Great start anyway.
 

Rojofiam

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I don't doubt you did but people who put their money on the line didn't agree, hence those were the prices.
Yeah, I'm not a high roller so I can't move the odds even if I place a bet. Not that the limits were that high for these selections anyway.

Though, if Tony Bloom himself told me those odds were correct I'd laugh at him :lol: I'm that confident
 

Leftback99

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I caused a stir here for suggesting we were 4th favourites. We're out to a higher price (11/1) on the exchanges than we were pre season now.
 

jeff gurr

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I think Chelsea are very serious contenders this season & Liverpool will be there or thereabouts if they avoid injuries.
 

cyberman

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Now we know Pep was desperate for a 9 and didn’t get him, and with Ronaldo coming home, what do we think?
I honestly think we now have the best attack in world football. He can afford to be a simple box player with the way we play
 

Dancfc

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Now we know Pep was desperate for a 9 and didn’t get him, and with Ronaldo coming home, what do we think?
I honestly think we now have the best attack in world football. He can afford to be a simple box player with the way we play
If it came alongside the appointment of Antonio Conte I would actually make you favourites.

Thankfully your board aren't ruthless enough for that.
 

cyberman

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If it came alongside the appointment of Antonio Conte I would actually make you favourites.

Thankfully your board aren't ruthless enough for that.
There comes a stage when world class talented squads make up for the deficiencies in a manager. We are now on that level IMO. You still have goal scoring issues outside of Lukaku, Ole can bring on Greenwood, Rashford or Cavani just to get us out of a hole but Tuche is the better manager.
 

Dancfc

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There comes a stage when world class talented squads make up for the deficiencies in a manager. We are now on that level IMO. You still have goal scoring issues outside of Lukaku, Ole can bring on Greenwood, Rashford or Cavani just to get us out of a hole but Tuche is the better manager.
It can get you to a certain base point in general results (as it has) but in the clutch games you need your manager no matter how much you have up top.

I get it's a sticky situation as Ole doesn't deserve the sack per se but the sample size (your semis and final and your run after you hit the summit last season) so far suggests you will eventually need too to hit the next level.
 

cyberman

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It can get you to a certain base point in general results (as it has) but in the clutch games you need your manager no matter how much you have up top.

I get it's a sticky situation as Ole doesn't deserve the sack per se but the sample size (your semis and final and your run after you hit the summit last season) so far suggests you will eventually need too to hit the next level.
Yeah but Ole wins the big games more times than not. It’s dropped points v deep laying small teams that we struggle against