Predict the top 6 in order. 2021/22.

cyberman

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What you are saying is you personally believe the price of 9/1 for us to win the league is wrong. Individuals/institutions who bet serious money on these things from their own analysis disagree, otherwise we would see the price come down like you say.
That’s not how it works though. It’s a long term bet that means it isn’t appealing and most serious bettors would wait until the window is shut and assess how teams are playing before ploughing in.
If we win our first 4 games we wouldn’t be 9/1. That doesn’t mean a lot of serious money went on us or we suddenly proved ourselves to be title contenders because we beat Leeds and Southampton.
You're wrong but I'm not derailing the thread any more.
I waited until the first big win from an outsider to reaffirm my point. Utd are now 6/1 to win the league with one win before anybody else played. That’s why premier league winners odd mean feck all before a ball is kicked
 

Leftback99

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I waited until the first big win from an outsider to reaffirm my point. Utd are now 6/1 to win the league with one win before anybody else played. That’s why premier league winners odd mean feck all before a ball is kicked
Not sure what your point is? We won convincingly and with that new information the price has changed. Or did you expect us to stay at 9/1 all season?
 

Rojofiam

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If they thought that 9/1 shot was actually a 1/1 shot by their analysis then they definitely would be tying up large amounts of money. If the odds move in their favour like you suggest, (eg. We are 5/1 after the first 3 games) they can 'cash out'.
Cashing out is actually one of the worst -EV decisions you can make in the betting world (99% of the time at least). Also, bookmakers do make mistakes but a 1/1 true chance will never be a 9/1 odds so I suppose you aren't serious with that example.

Trust me, United were massively undervalued before the start of the season, at one point we were around 9.5 to win the League while City were 1.66 and Chelsea around 5 - 5.50.
 

Leftback99

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Cashing out is actually one of the worst -EV decisions you can make in the betting world (99% of the time at least). Also, bookmakers do make mistakes but a 1/1 true chance will never be a 9/1 odds so I suppose you aren't serious with that example.

Trust me, United were massively undervalued before the start of the season, at one point we were around 9.5 to win the League while City were 1.66 and Chelsea around 5 - 5.50.
Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
 

Rojofiam

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Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
You can check my earlier posts, I've said the exact same thing before the season started, so it's not about hindsight.

And no, I did not take this bet, but I should have.
 

TrustInJanuzaj

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Yeah I know using cash out from a high street bookie is bad value. I was really talking 'trading out' on exchanges without getting into it.

It's easy in hindsight the way the results have gone this weekend. I assume you've made a fair bit of money then?
To be fair you just seem determined to say Utd should be outside odds when we really shouldn’t be.
 

Leftback99

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You can check my earlier posts, I've said the exact same thing before the season started, so it's not about hindsight.

And no, I did not take this bet, but I should have.
I don't doubt you did but people who put their money on the line didn't agree, hence those were the prices.
 

Leftback99

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To be fair you just seem determined to say Utd should be outside odds when we really shouldn’t be.
I believe we're 4th favourites and so do the prices available. Interpret that however you want.

Go ahead and make your fortune if you know better.
 

TrustInJanuzaj

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I believe we're 4th favourites and so do the prices available. Interpret that however you want.

Go ahead and make your fortune if you know better.
Meh better to be under appreciated and underrated anyway. I think we will prove people wrong this season.
 

Rojofiam

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I don't doubt you did but people who put their money on the line didn't agree, hence those were the prices.
Yeah, I'm not a high roller so I can't move the odds even if I place a bet. Not that the limits were that high for these selections anyway.

Though, if Tony Bloom himself told me those odds were correct I'd laugh at him :lol: I'm that confident
 

Leftback99

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I caused a stir here for suggesting we were 4th favourites. We're out to a higher price (11/1) on the exchanges than we were pre season now.
 

jeff gurr

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I think Chelsea are very serious contenders this season & Liverpool will be there or thereabouts if they avoid injuries.
 

cyberman

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Now we know Pep was desperate for a 9 and didn’t get him, and with Ronaldo coming home, what do we think?
I honestly think we now have the best attack in world football. He can afford to be a simple box player with the way we play
 

Dancfc

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Now we know Pep was desperate for a 9 and didn’t get him, and with Ronaldo coming home, what do we think?
I honestly think we now have the best attack in world football. He can afford to be a simple box player with the way we play
If it came alongside the appointment of Antonio Conte I would actually make you favourites.

Thankfully your board aren't ruthless enough for that.
 

cyberman

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If it came alongside the appointment of Antonio Conte I would actually make you favourites.

Thankfully your board aren't ruthless enough for that.
There comes a stage when world class talented squads make up for the deficiencies in a manager. We are now on that level IMO. You still have goal scoring issues outside of Lukaku, Ole can bring on Greenwood, Rashford or Cavani just to get us out of a hole but Tuche is the better manager.
 

Dancfc

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There comes a stage when world class talented squads make up for the deficiencies in a manager. We are now on that level IMO. You still have goal scoring issues outside of Lukaku, Ole can bring on Greenwood, Rashford or Cavani just to get us out of a hole but Tuche is the better manager.
It can get you to a certain base point in general results (as it has) but in the clutch games you need your manager no matter how much you have up top.

I get it's a sticky situation as Ole doesn't deserve the sack per se but the sample size (your semis and final and your run after you hit the summit last season) so far suggests you will eventually need too to hit the next level.
 

cyberman

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It can get you to a certain base point in general results (as it has) but in the clutch games you need your manager no matter how much you have up top.

I get it's a sticky situation as Ole doesn't deserve the sack per se but the sample size (your semis and final and your run after you hit the summit last season) so far suggests you will eventually need too to hit the next level.
Yeah but Ole wins the big games more times than not. It’s dropped points v deep laying small teams that we struggle against
 

THM

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Quite interesting to see a lot of the predictions from the beginning of the season.

Leicester have seriously fudged it up (I know they’ve had injuries but to be lumbering around in lower mid table in March doesn’t reflect well on them at all).
 

Nish115

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Apparently Arteta isn't overachieving though and anything other than 4th and he should be sacked..

Couldn't tell looking at these. Read 3 pages and couldn't see Arsenal anywhere.
 

James35

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Fair play to the few who predicted United finish outside the top 4.

I went with a positive 4th, not sure why/how so many went for us winning the league mind. That was absolutely never happening!
 

Leftback99

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I overestimated us in 4th (despite people arguing with me that I was underrating us :lol:). Had Arsenal 5th and expected a bit more from Leicester.
 

WeePat

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I have a gut feeling City will flop in the league this season.

1. United
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. City
5. Villa
6. Tottenham

It's a bit difficult when we don't have all the information yet. Leicester need defensive reinforcements. If they get it, they could be a top 4-5 team. If Kane ends up leaving, I don't have Spurs in the top 6, and City will probably be closer to the top spot.
Wildly overrated United and Villa here :lol:
 

RacingClub

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Quite interesting to see a lot of the predictions from the beginning of the season.

Leicester have seriously fudged it up (I know they’ve had injuries but to be lumbering around in lower mid table in March doesn’t reflect well on them at all).

I'm a huge fan of this bump not only because of the fact it shines a light on alot of our biases as football fans but also the fact that an Arsenal fan has bumped it under the guise of analysing Leicesters failure instead of it's true purpose (and fair by the way) of celebrating Arsenals/ Artetas over achievement :lol: I admire the top class shithousery.
 

adexkola

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I'm a huge fan of this bump not only because of the fact it shines a light on alot of our biases as football fans but also the fact that an Arsenal fan has bumped it under the guise of analysing Leicesters failure instead of it's true purpose (and fair by the way) of celebrating Arsenals/ Artetas over achievement :lol: I admire the top class shithousery.
Aye well caught there!

This thread is amazing!!!

Football fans are genuinely deluded, aren’t they?
Yes we are! :D

No need to bump my post, by the way.
 

padr81

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Leicester implosion. Rodgers times up I think
This is a pretty good prediction, United and Arsenal only ones that are off.
Great call on Leicester.
 

Klopper76

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1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester United
4. Liverpool
5. Leicester
6. Aston Villa (I think they’ll have a good season).

I can’t see beyond City currently. They sign Kane and it’s done. I think United have the squad but I’m not convinced Solskjaer is that guy. Up to him to prove me wrong.

Chelsea could win it if Lukaku settles but they ended up behind us last season, despite our wretched campaign.

I don’t see it with us. We’d need a lot to go our way in terms of squad fitness. We desperately need a midfielder.

Can’t wait to see fans back in the stadiums.
Aston fecking Villa?! Who was I? Apologies to the Arsenal fans.
 

laughtersassassin

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Yeh it’s fun to mock positivity. You’re right the world would be a better place if we all just accept how shite it really is. Thanks for that!
Mate it's a joke. Was just funny because you where so sure everyone was being negative for the sake of it.

Obviously we are all just guessing. Some are overly positive, some overly negative etc etc