Scenes in here when Spurs win the league 
Premier League Gameweek 6
- Thread starter Samid
- Start date
I'm on board with the line of thinking that Spurs are being carried by Kane and Son and an unsustainable level of finishing from the latter. I don't want it to be true - I want Kane to win a major trophy, and after 7 years of watching every game involving Kane, I have a soft spot for Spurs - but it's the most probable explanation for their current form, both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Kane has always been a fantastic passer. He's gone up another gear recently but it's not like he's unlocked some entirely new trait. The key difference now is that those on the receiving end of his passes are scoring. Indeed, Son is seemingly scoring with every shot at the moment. If he were to continue in this vein, he would rapidly have a better G/xG ratio than any other player in the world.
Unless you believe that Son is the most clinical finisher in the world, he's probably going to regress. Actually, he's probably going to regress regardless, because the extent of his overperformance is so great as to be unreasonable. And while, historically, he's been a very solid finisher, he's never shown anything close to this level in the past, nor the potential to reach it. The most obvious example of how extreme this transformation is is the conversion rate of Kane's key passes: up to over 50% from under 10%.
Once those Kane-Son bailouts dry up - and that only has to happen once every four games to derail any title challenge - we'll be left to see just how mediocre their midfield and especially defence are. I mean, they have some other good players, but how many would the other top 6 teams really want? The quality of Kane and Son alone is elevating the rest by several table positions.
Kane has always been a fantastic passer. He's gone up another gear recently but it's not like he's unlocked some entirely new trait. The key difference now is that those on the receiving end of his passes are scoring. Indeed, Son is seemingly scoring with every shot at the moment. If he were to continue in this vein, he would rapidly have a better G/xG ratio than any other player in the world.
Unless you believe that Son is the most clinical finisher in the world, he's probably going to regress. Actually, he's probably going to regress regardless, because the extent of his overperformance is so great as to be unreasonable. And while, historically, he's been a very solid finisher, he's never shown anything close to this level in the past, nor the potential to reach it. The most obvious example of how extreme this transformation is is the conversion rate of Kane's key passes: up to over 50% from under 10%.
Once those Kane-Son bailouts dry up - and that only has to happen once every four games to derail any title challenge - we'll be left to see just how mediocre their midfield and especially defence are. I mean, they have some other good players, but how many would the other top 6 teams really want? The quality of Kane and Son alone is elevating the rest by several table positions.
Not too far off, they've linked up 29 times, Drogba and Lampard reached 36
That's correct, Mourinho was playing for a draw before that stupid red card. He change the tactic after he smells blood on our defense.
I don't think Mourinho is expecting for one man advantage in every away game.
Beat a team that has 1 point so far. Big whoop.
This so petty and bitter. Overperformance?
So players arent allowed to develop. If they're good it must be a fluke. I'd love to see your analysis on united.
Will be nice to see Burnley relegated. Too many defeats to them at OT.
Id say a midfield of Lo Celso, N'dombele and Hojbjerg is not what I'd describe as mediocre but ok that's your opinion. Our defence is fine also but probably needs another quality cb.
Son and Kane are clearly world class players though.
I don't think anyone would be annoyed as it would stop Liverpool! And City.Scenes in here when Spurs win the league
But beating Burnley isn't the time to judge.
Beating a half fit United down to ten for 70mins neither.
Beat Liverpool and City then we'll talk.
Tottenham have a three game run of Man City, Chelsea away, Arsenal in a couple of game weeks.
See how they come out after that run.
See how they come out after that run.
Yeah that will tell us if we are the real deal or not. Which is why im not getting too excited just yet. Though i am pleased with how we are playing.
I was just reading some match reports after yesterday evening’s game and see that Spurs are winning the league again.
I thought that was the archetypal Jose performance when his individual attackers are not on stellar form. There are no patterns to Spurs’ play.
I thought that was the archetypal Jose performance when his individual attackers are not on stellar form. There are no patterns to Spurs’ play.
Wonder if anyone is going to mention their unremarkable XG difference.
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You've certainly surprised us so far. As we thought the jose cycle was a year ahead of schedule.
Namely this being the meltdown season. Instead it looks to be the peaking season.
Was it petty and bitter when people used those metrics to predict that Leicester wouldn’t sustain their level after their form had taken them to second by December last year? Or was it an observation, backed up by stats, which was proved to end up being correct? It’s a dramatic statistical change that is more likely to be explained by temporary form than a sudden improvement in two players who are in the middle of their careers. It’s not like they’ve been young talents who have now burst onto the scene like Messi and Ronaldo.
I suppose we’ll see who ends up being correct but it’s not like he’s just said “they’re better now, it’s a definite fluke” without any backing of his claims.
So it's analytical studies?
That is exactly what he has said essentially. It's his opinion, nothing more.
I love him as a player. He is one of the only pure football players around at the minute.
Would love him at United.
What does that mean?
This thread got salty quickly. Don't really mind Spurs, let them have their day in the Son.
He's not a prick I guess.
He's a good boy.
He cried though.Didnt he break Gomes ankles last season?
Leave him alone... he criedDidnt he break Gomes ankles last season?
They have been much more tolerable to watch now that they have benched the annoying scrote Alli, Lamela has taken over the sh!thousery crown. But every team has one or two players that grind your gears.
I dont see them winning the league, their defence is simply not good enough, definitely in the mix for top 4 however.
I thought that was Aurier that ended up actually doing the damage? Son I guess you could argue initiated the tackle by coming in hard and threw Gomes off balance, leading to said injury. But it was Aurier standing on his ankle that was the deal breaker .... so to speak.Didnt he break Gomes ankles last season?
For me it means that he is a player that is all about the game. Plays with passion and for the love of the game and loves his team but doesnt appear to be a prick off the pitch, he doesnt appear to be an egomaniac shaper that loves the limelight and celebrity.
Game needs more like him.
His opinion based on an anomalous xG performance compared to his own stats from previously, and based on a five-fold increase in conversion rate from previously, to a level that no player really can achieve over a long period of time. To hold the opinion that this may be unsustainable over a season is hardly something to get worked up over, as you and Sky seem to be getting, with him describing it as petty. It’s an opinion on a forum, get over it. Even if he had just said “I don’t think this level of performance is sustainable in the long run” without mentioning G/xG and conversion rates, it’s hardly something worth calling a poster petty and bitter over, like Sky did, is it?
I have no problem with his opinion, he may be proved to be right. I'm just pointing out that it is only his own opinion. Where did I say he was petty or bitter??
Hilarious part is @1966 doesn't support any club, he likes Spurs because of Kane. Why would he be bitter about Spurs?
I never said you did. I referred to the other poster that I originally responded to, by mentioning him twice in my post.
I said that he’s held an opinion which he has backed up (with his chosen metrics) and said that it’s not like he posted “they’re shit hahahaha” and didn’t back up his claim. Then, all of a sudden, you jump in and say that’s exactly what he did and then I had to explain again how he backed up his claim and then you again countered with “well, that’s just his opinion”.
Every prediction is an opinion as nobody can see the future accurately, and this one in particular was backed up and explained how it was formed. What exactly was your point when you jumped into the discussion? Why did you take issue with my post to point out that a poster’s post was that poster’s own opinion, and then wrongly suggested that he didn’t back up the reasoning behind the formation of that opinion? Did I at any point seem to think that the poster wasn’t posting his own opinion? If so, I do apologise.
I just don't see those sort of stats as being reliable enough to make any sort of definitive decision on anything. They can also be interpreted in different ways depending on your own point of view. Case in point - this poster takes from those stats that the current form is unsustainable over a season whereas my own view would be that this is evidence of Jose getting the team working in a new system that suits the players well and Kane and Son have also developed and improved their own abilities and relationship on the pitch which I believe could be sustainable over a season. It's still down to one person's opinion vs another's and using stats doesn't make one argument stronger than another one.
That’s fair, you can obviously disagree with the choice of metrics for any reason at all (but nobody has until you just did), but the original post I responded to was calling him petty and bitter for suggesting that he’s agreeing with the line of thinking that a never-before achieved conversion rate and G/xG might be a temporary thing.
Let’s take a hypothetical example: Son scores a hat-trick two games in a row.
Poster A says: this is likely to be an anomaly as this player doesn’t have a history of scoring hat-tricks every game and no player in the game scores hat-tricks every game, so I’m thinking that he won’t be scoring hat-tricks every game from now on.
Poster B: wow that’s so petty and bitter!
Poster C (me): Was it petty and bitter when someone suggested last season that Jamie Vardy wouldn’t score a hat-trick in ever game last season
Poster D (you): Well, that’s just like his opinion, man.
Seems like I accidentally caused some drama.. I've only read @roonster09's reply so far, which suggests that I've got some personal insults to look forward to shortly. I didn't mean to upset anyone ffs. There was nothing personal in my post at all. We're only random guys sharing our opinions on a subject that doesn't actually matter in any meaningful sense.
I liked your response though (@roonster09). It's true that I don't support any club (only England) so I have no reason not to want Spurs and particularly England's best player, who happens to be at Spurs, to do well. If I had to pick a club to win the PL this season, I'd pick Spurs. But the rational part of my brain is not allowing me to believe that they have a realistic chance, for the reasons I gave in my last post.
On any football forum, you have to be able to cope with controversial opinions about your team. If you're an opposing fan on another team's forum, you really have to be able to cope with them.
I liked your response though (@roonster09). It's true that I don't support any club (only England) so I have no reason not to want Spurs and particularly England's best player, who happens to be at Spurs, to do well. If I had to pick a club to win the PL this season, I'd pick Spurs. But the rational part of my brain is not allowing me to believe that they have a realistic chance, for the reasons I gave in my last post.
On any football forum, you have to be able to cope with controversial opinions about your team. If you're an opposing fan on another team's forum, you really have to be able to cope with them.
Agreed. Like opposition fans on here, yes they're going to be spiky at times but the more diversity the better.
I mean, without even diving into advanced stats, Son now has scored 8 goals from 14 shots
You really don't need anything more than that to see that kind of form is unsustainable
You really don't need anything more than that to see that kind of form is unsustainable
Exactly. The only way there won't be a sizable regression is, as I said, if he's become a finisher the likes of which the world has never seen before.
I credited the wrong person previously but I've just read the whole thread and you've made all the points I would've made on my own behalf. Thanks mate.
(I obviously wasn't intending to start an argument or trash Spurs. I'm hugely interested in the study of logic and inferential stats, so the issue is fascinating to me on many levels.)