Premier League's Quietest Ever Transfer Window

[Mrs Smoker]

Very cool.

 

[romufc]

It shouldn't be one way. If Maguire has shit season will he agree to take pay cut?

I agree, but you could also say that the club are protecting themselves.

If we spend £80m on PP and then he decides he wants to leave, United will want to recover the money and some?

But looking at it logically, no defender is worth £80m. It is selfish from the club because Leicester are not going to challenge top 4 or titles (yes they won it I know) but when a player who thinks he should be playing for a club that challenges, wants to leave and says I want to leave the club should turn around and say we will let you go. They are making money of him, they will be getting good fee to get another player.

With PP, the reason we are not letting him go is that we know with a couple signings we can challenge the top teams so he will get an opportunity to win things. His reason for wanting to go is lack of club ambition.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I agree, but you could also say that the club are protecting themselves.

If we spend £80m on PP and then he decides he wants to leave, United will want to recover the money and some?

But looking at it logically, no defender is worth £80m. It is selfish from the club because Leicester are not going to challenge top 4 or titles (yes they won it I know) but when a player who thinks he should be playing for a club that challenges, wants to leave and says I want to leave the club should turn around and say we will let you go. They are making money of him, they will be getting good fee to get another player.

With PP, the reason we are not letting him go is that we know with a couple signings we can challenge the top teams so he will get an opportunity to win things. His reason for wanting to go is lack of club ambition.

Ha, bless.

 

[tjb]

It will balance itself out soon enough. All it means is that you will likely see more talent signed at youth level rather than as pros. Utd have been snapping up youngsters this summer, and the signs on our current team already show the benefit. While a team like Leicester will maybe have one guy that talented, utd could have 4 or 5 that can eventually make the first team. It feels more like how the transfer window was in the 90s. You will not see us spend on 6 players in a window anymore. City won't be able to do this either. So finding the right player will take more time and work to set up. I also see a future of more free transfers, so at the end of the day, clubs will wait to sign players when their contracts run out, and players will hold out till their contracts run out, where big clubs can still snap them up.

 

[M Bison]

Blame the Glazers and Woodward - its all their fault

 

[M Bison]

It will balance itself out soon enough. All it means is that you will likely see more talent signed at youth level rather than as pros. Utd have been snapping up youngsters this summer, and the signs on our current team already show the benefit. While a team like Leicester will maybe have one guy that talented, utd could have 4 or 5 that can eventually make the first team. It feels more like how the transfer window was in the 90s. You will not see us spend on 6 players in a window anymore. City won't be able to do this either. So finding the right player will take more time and work to set up. I also see a future of more free transfers, so at the end of the day, clubs will wait to sign players when their contracts run out, and players will hold out till their contracts run out, where big clubs can still snap them up.

This is a good point and i suppose is no coincidence that we've seen 4 of our youth team attend the pre-season tour.

 

[redshaw]

Would like to see how other countries are doing as well as Europe as a whole compared to previous years.

I predicted this would happen before the window. There was a lot of anticipation for a hectic summer of activity but I felt transfer fees, wage demands and agent fees would slow the market right down.

Most clubs now can either say no to 60 million or spend that themselves but only the likes of City can have multiple 60 million signings. So called rich clubs simply can't look to sign 3-4 players if 50 million is a base figure and climbing to 90-100 million.

 

[Bilbo]

Transfer fees have reached the realistic ceiling now and the market is screwed up. When Newcastle value a young unproven midfielder who has played a handful of games at £50m, its time to re-evaluate and wonder how much better he actually is than your young academy prospect. Premier League clubs are all loaded and don't need to sell.

Having said that next week will probably be insane, but hopefully this is a sign that transfer fees will start to fall.

 

[SCP]

Maybe less signings but I predict on the last week there’s going to increase that number.

Not only the clubs who have more money will wait until the last days as the clubs who need to sell will panick if they need to balance their budgets and they see they can’t get the price they want, particularly clubs from weaker leagues, not the Champions League top teams.

Also there’s always those players from the top clubs who they want to get rid off who will move to other leagues or smaller clubs.

But I doubt in the next years the prices will increase as much as we have seen in recent seasons. If not free transfers with huge fees to the players and respective agents will be the new normal.

 

[adexkola]

I'm not sure this is a bad thing honestly. If instead of splashing $50M on an average midfielder from Spain, clubs are forced to look towards their academy, it's great for the sport.

And I wouldn't be surprised if other leagues have banded together to restrict transfers to the UK... With the PL's money advantage, they retain some leverage by being an important source of football talent. Why let that leave without squeezing PL clubs for all they got?

 

[golden_blunder]

Transfer fees have reached the realistic ceiling now and the market is screwed up. When Newcastle value a young unproven midfielder who has played a handful of games at £50m, its time to re-evaluate and wonder how much better he actually is than your young academy prospect. Premier League clubs are all loaded and don't need to sell.

Having said that next week will probably be insane, but hopefully this is a sign that transfer fees will start to fall.

I don’t disagree but I also think then that clubs will keep their hands in their pockets more then and the huge money built up will not be put back into the clubs.

 

[Mb194dc]

The entire transfer market going to collapse. Will end with players taking shorter contracts and taking massive signing bonuses.

TV revenue and resultant transfer fee inflation totally unsustainable.

 

[Tickle Lad]

I’d say there are three main factors: scarcity of adequate players, scarcity of willing selling clubs, and both of these feed into the scarcity of willing buying clubs.

I’d also say everyone is overestimating the economic impact of Brexit on this summer’s window. Of course the weakness of the pound has a slight effect but not to the impact of killing transfers stone dead, for example if you were to buy a €50m player now he would cost £45m, compared to £36m in summer 2015. Annoying yes but lethal? Consider that Premier League clubs’ combined annual revenues are £~5bn.

Regarding negative future projections, the Premier League is deeply embedded within British culture as an escapist leisure product, and history shows that if marketed properly such products are fairly impervious to economic downturns, for example see coffee shops during the Greek downturn. In fact to the contrary you’d have to think the Premier League stands to benefit from any surge in nationalism that Brexit brings, as well as protective status from a government desperate to counteract by projecting Britain’s culture as global and trade seeking. Besides, the comfortable and fast-growing majority of the Premier League’s revenue now comes from abroad, so even the impact of a domestic downturn would be negated.

However, the current stasis can be explained by market forces:


Scarcity of Product

The strength of the Premier League is undeniable - 4 English teams taking the 4 European final positions last season - and this means that from top to bottom our clubs find it very hard to find players that can genuinely improve their teams.

This summer for example, to improve their squad Newcastle had to buy Joelinton, a 2018-2019 Champions League goalscorer, Everton had to buy Andre Gomes who has 38 European appearances for Benfica/Valencia/Barcelona, and we bought Tielemans who has 46 European appearances...
Essentially almost the entire league has to comb the scanty top of the ability pyramid for talent they can dislodge.

But dislodging the talent is harder too now. Players are better advised, more appearing to prioritise long-term decision making above short-term financial gain. For example Jadon Sancho could have come to yourselves for a huge pay rise this summer but chose to continue developing at Dortmund. In reverse Lookman took a pay cut to join Leipzig from Everton, the underlying point being that it takes more than a quick flash of the Premier League cheque book to encourage a player to take a positive decision towards you nowadays. Ultimately unless you are both a big Champions League club and can guarantee a starting place to a player then it is going to be difficult to attract them.

And even then the definition of a big Champions League club in England is becoming more diffuse. With the competitiveness of the big 6 - and an ambitious pack just behind catching up - how many English clubs can actually offer the crucial selling point of guaranteed year in year out Champions League football to a player?

To summarise, there’s few players around that are good enough to improve Premier League sides, fewer still that want to join the non-Champions League sides and those that can be convinced to count a Champions League yoyo club as a true Champions League club.


Unwilling Selling Clubs

Politically European clubs have always been resistant to the Premier League, jealous of its finances, greedy of its finances, threatened by its finances, threats realised in 2018-2019.

Add to that the potential for inceased political rivalry from Brexit - the history of economic break-ups shows its permeation of all aspects of culture - and there is zero favourability towards selling to British clubs.


Unwilling Buying Clubs

Clubs are hugely voyeuristic, and the recent success of Liverpool and Tottenham has pointed everybody towards a new philosophy-heavy approach which tends to place emphasis on youth players and cost-effectiveness; short-term compromise buys are not part of this philosophy. Essentially clubs are trying to transition to a German-esque strategy of focused efficiency but the aforementioned current attitude of selling clubs is preventing this. Even the clubs who have traditionally paid no heed to these philosophies - Manchester City and Chelsea - are currently heavily burdened with financial fair play considerations and so cannot buck this trend.

Finally there’s the fact that there is no sporting reason for most Premier League clubs to invest heavily, as the financial revenues of Premier League clubs mean that the majority of current Premier League owners have been attracted by the financial venture rather than the sporting one. Therefore, given the previously discussed intense competition for European places coupled with Premier League prize money being fairly evenly spread across all positions, providing you can stay in the league then on an effort/risk versus reward scale heavy investment just isn’t prudent.


Of course the above reasons apply in different quantities to different players and clubs, but in summary:
There are too few available and adequate players and too few selling clubs who are willing to negotiate rationally, both of which are pushing prices up exorbitantly. Also too few are the Premier League clubs willing to rise to this exorbitance, which leads to inactivity.

 

[bosnian_red]

I don’t disagree but I also think then that clubs will keep their hands in their pockets more then and the huge money built up will not be put back into the clubs.

The positive would be that all this money could go towards the youth development, facilities and scouting, and the "properly run clubs" would shift into that direction, but likely is the majority would just keep it and not reinvest.

 

[WR10]

Weak pound and Brexit. Couple in the fact that if you were to shop local anyway clubs are loaded and no longer need to sell.

 

[adexkola]

Unwilling Selling Clubs

Politically European clubs have always been resistant to the Premier League, jealous of its finances, greedy of its finances, threatened by its finances, threats realised in 2018-2019.

Add to that the potential for inceased political rivalry from Brexit - the history of economic break-ups shows its permeation of all aspects of culture - and there is zero favourability towards selling to British clubs.

Overall very good post but I agree with this section the most.

 

[BBRBB]

PL clubs are not selling so they don't need to buy much.

 

[MAME DIOUF 32]

Would it be fair to say that playing style is more important than ever? So it's more about getting the manager to come up with a way of playing that beats the opponent than trying to have the better individual players?

 

[Casanova85]

Of the Top10 only Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea should be buying new players.

 

[Amarsdd]

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It did feel as if it was a shockingly quiet transfer window, though I was half thinking it was just United being shit at making transfers. So why is it that at a time when the premier league has more money than ever, are teams struggling so hard to complete any transfers? I understand it being difficult for premier league teams to buy from other premier league teams, with every team being able to demand "feck off" fees for players if a team truly wants them because they never need to sell, but you would think it should make it much easier to sign players from the rest of Europe.

Looking around the premier league, look at the number of signings per club. Sheffield United and Villa made by far the most signings (5 & 10), Watford and West Ham on 4 signings each but the rest being 3 signings or fewer, for a total of 59 so far. Not sure where everything goes from here, but it's interesting none the less that with all the money the premier league was getting led to the mid table teams getting a lot stronger initially to now basically nobody being able to complete signings.

It's because Woodward is shit, obviously.

 

[Catt]

It's because Woodward is shit, obviously.

Totally.

 

[el3mel]

City and Liverpool are content with their complete and top squad.

Chelsea had a transfer ban.

United and Arsenal have incompetent and terrible board.

That's about it.

 

[ReddBalls]

Would it be fair to say that playing style is more important than ever? So it's more about getting the manager to come up with a way of playing that beats the opponent than trying to have the better individual players?

Why not? There are very few really exceptional footballers but lots of really good ones. There is a lot of knowledge going about of what makes a top athlete, and kids are being primed for professional football almost from birth. A lot of teams can compile a squad of really good to great footballers, so to be the best, you need to be better than the rest at making them sing
in tune. The three best teams in England last year all emphasised system over individuals.

 

[redshaw]

I’d also say everyone is overestimating the economic impact of Brexit on this summer’s window. Of course the weakness of the pound has a slight effect but not to the impact of killing transfers stone dead,

Yes I agree, people might get caught up in the headlines but pound against the euro and dollar is the same as 2017, basically gone sideways the whole time. The weaker pound didn't stop a flurry of activity in the last two seasons. The brexit deadline is looming but I'd say it's more about reaching an impasse in transfer fees, wages and agent fees, plus bans and packed squads doing relatively well.