I think City are certs, Arsenal near certs, then it gets tougher. Could be any two from five after that, and Brighton are just about still in the race too. I suspect Liverpool will find their groove though, and Brighton will fall away.
Spurs, Newcastle, United and Chelsea are tough to decide between, especially as the World Cup is coming at a good time for United and Chelsea, who both look a little lost and would hopefully get a little more acquainted with their manager during the break where possible.
If I had to pick now, I’d guess City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs in that order, followed by United, Newcastle and Chelsea.
Missing out on top 4 wouldn’t be the end of the world for Ten Hag, but not being competitive for it would be. No shame in finishing fifth or even sixth if sides go on runs and it is a higher than average total to get CL football, but anything less than being competitive would undermine his position. We have to have a better season than last year.