After this weekend, we'll have the following in terms of home/away:
Home - 10 games
- Leeds (unscheduled so far)
Away - 8 games
- West Ham
It's an extremely favourable run of games... Some tough away games, especially the 5 in bold. But the rest really should be wins. The toughest home games on paper are against Fulham (6th, but 12th in xPts), Brentford (8th, 7th in xPts), Chelsea (10th in both) and Villa (11th in both). So... basically a few mid table home games at best. We can and really should be winning every single one of these, but hey lets assume 8-1-1 in terms of W-D-L (so 25 points) just because long winning streaks are hard and you'll drop stupid points here and there. But just very few at home IMO, where we are currently 7-1-1 after a draw vs Newcastle and loss to Brighton.
Away, getting City and Arsenal out of the way is huge. We'll see how we do vs Arsenal but if we assume a loss (already beat them at home this season, seems unlikely that we'll dominate in every single big game), then I'd guess the other group of 5 tougher on paper away games in bold above, we could get 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from (being pessimistic but possibly a bad run due to fixture congestion). The remaining 3 games should be wins. So that would be 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from the away group (14 points).
That puts us on 39 points from the 2nd half of the season, same as the first half, and on 78 points. To be honest that's pretty much what I expect us to do, and I really can't see us doing any worse than that given the fixtures. It's an extremely favourable home run, and we have 10 home games to go vs 8 away. We are massive favourites to get top 4 and really should be comfortable in that come the end of the season.