Race for top 5 (confirmed)| Possibly 6th gets CL

Andycoleno9

snowflake obsessed matchday malcontent
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Half of season done. So, why not have a place to debate about top 4/top 5 trophy?

I guess we all agree that City and Arsenal are safe.
All other contenders look shaky. Chelsea is playing hot and cold and Liverpool don't look convincing at all. Villa is a major surprise for me so far but i think that they will not manage to keep up.
United, with all our struggles and dropped points, are still joint 5th with Chelsea.

So, are you optimistic about our chances and who will get that top 5 spots? My opinion (hope) is:
Arsenal
City
Pool
Man United
Chelsea


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Added to OP:

Chipper said:
This way of looking at it says Liverpool, the opponents remaining points per game column where higher is more difficult but it is only one way to view it and you could pick plenty of holes in the methodology.



United


Villa


Liverpool


Chelsea



Flaws:

Palace are due to go to Anfield and while Palace have an impressive 1.53 points per game away across the whole season so far they haven't been in great form. How applicable is that now? As well as form, doesn't take into account what teams are fighting for, teams battling to stay up might be harder to play than the numbers show.

Keeping it on the Liverpool v Palace match, the fact that Palace haven't been to Anfield yet, or the Etihad for that matter is a contritubatary factor as to why it's 1.53 for them and possibly not lower. Swap out 2 of their away wins for defeats at those venues (should they happen) and instead of 1.53 for Palace they'd be on a 1.13 for anyone facing them at home right now should the fixture list have been ordered differently.

Still, kind of fun to look at though.
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Chipper said:
Yes, nop problem, it's all from here anyway - https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england
(scroll down and tap in the run in tab on the table then hover over the numbers to see the fixture breakdown)

Brentford with a statistically hard end to the season, Everton's looks quite good for them using that method.



Brentford:


Everton:


Brentford v Everton a big one up next for both teams.
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Arsenal
City
Liverpool
Villa
Chelsea
United

I think we'll just miss out. Top 3 are just easily the 3 best teams in the league. And then don't see us making up 10 points on Villa in half a season and Chelsea are more capable of going on a run than we are. Think we'll have more games where we drop points by not being able to break teams down than they will.
 
Andycoleno9 said:
Half of season done. So, why not have a place to debate about top 4/top 5 trophy?

I guess we all agree that City and Arsenal are safe.
All other contenders look shaky. Chelsea is playing hot and cold and Liverpool don't look convincing at all. Villa is a major surprise for me so far but i think that they will not manage to keep up.
United, with all our struggles and dropped points, are still joint 5th with Chelsea.

So, are you optimistic about our chances and who will get that top 5 spots? My opinion (hope) is:
Arsenal
City
Pool
Man United
Chelsea
Click to expand...

Why can't we keep this up?

The three seasons under Emery we've finished on 61, 68 and 66 points. The first season he took over 12 games in when we were above bottom three on GD so that year could've been more aligned to last two years.

To get to 70 points we need 9 wins and 4 draws from final 20 games.

Chelsea look vulnerable though. Four times this season they've failed to win games at Stamford Bridge from winning positions and if your home form is dodgy it's a struggle to finish much higher than 6th so they're the most vulnerable team of the higher group currently as would expect Liverpool to sign at least one new CB in January and so they will get more consistency in second half of the season.
 
We're 10 points off Villa. No way are we consistent enough to claw that back. With the missing players that gap is more likely to widen I'd say.

5th or 6th I'd say.

Will come down to who has more injuries.
 
The top 2 will be clear. Villa will eventually slow down and fall into the chasing pack. Their current form feels unsustainable.

1. City
2. Arsenal


3. Villa
4. Liverpool
5. Chelsea
 
City, Arsenal and Villa for the title - in that order.

Liverpool and Chelsea* to fight it out for fourth.

*No, I'm afraid Chelsea are not title contenders, despite what the media and Duffer have been swaggering about saying.
 
The one game a week will start to pay dividends in the second half of the season as the extra games start to catch up with the players and the high intensity important European games start.

Think we will finish 5th or 6th but I wouldn't rule 4th out if we get a big Winter signing to help out (still think there's a possibility of bringing in Baleba as it seems Ayari has nabbed his spot).

City
Arsenal
Liverpool
Villa
Utd
Chelsea
 
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Think we'll get top 5.

Ideally we'll have a shit run that gets Slot the sack but still end up getting Champions league football. Our current approach of being unconvincing winners while being horrendous to watch will keep him in his job though.

City, Arsenal, Villa, Liverpool, Chelsea if I had to guess.

I don't like 5 teams from one league all getting a European spot though, it always ends up with 1 team (usually more) getting a reward for being the least shit team.
 
DennisReynolds said:
Think we'll get top 5.

Ideally we'll have a shit run that gets Slot the sack but still end up getting Champions league football. Our current approach of being unconvincing winners while being horrendous to watch will keep him in his job though.

City, Arsenal, Villa, Liverpool, Chelsea if I had to guess.
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What CBs you signing next month, that is I'd say the biggest short term factor in how comfortably you get CL. I mean you will sign some I guess....?
 
duffer said:
Everyone is saying it according to someone.
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I just think every single Chelsea fan and the media at large are reeling from the shock of a misinformed opinion, there's no shame in it. We all have to readjust our expectations in the face of the painful truth every now and then.

I'm just more used to seeing this type of unrealistic optimism, to put it kindly, from Liverpool fans.

I'd rather see Chelsea get it, than Liverpool, so hopefully this sobering dose of reality inspires the blues to redouble their efforts and scrap it out for fourth.
 
HankHill said:
I just think every single Chelsea fan and the media at large are reeling from the shock of a misinformed opinion, there's no shame in it. We all have to readjust our expectations in the face of the painful truth every now and then.

I'm just more used to seeing this type of unrealistic optimism, to put it kindly, from Liverpool fans.

I'd rather see Chelsea get it, than Liverpool, so hopefully this sobering dose of reality inspires the blues to redouble their efforts and scrap it out for fourth.
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It's December 27th, time to put the mulled wine down!
 
It's hard to imagine the current top 5 won't be the eventual top 5. Although, it is a relatively poor league this season with only Arsenal looking a solid, if massively unspectacular team.

I'll take finishing out of Europe altogether if it isn't the CL, but if we can finish top 5 it will have to be considered a good season.
 
FootballHQ said:
Why can't we keep this up?

The three seasons under Emery we've finished on 61, 68 and 66 points. The first season he took over 12 games in when we were above bottom three on GD so that year could've been more aligned to last two years.

To get to 70 points we need 9 wins and 4 draws from final 20 games.

Chelsea look vulnerable though. Four times this season they've failed to win games at Stamford Bridge from winning positions and if your home form is dodgy it's a struggle to finish much higher than 6th so they're the most vulnerable team of the higher group currently as would expect Liverpool to sign at least one new CB in January and so they will get more consistency in second half of the season.
Click to expand...
When i was writting that i knew that you will respond. :)

Look, despite the fact that i have huge respect to Emery and some of Villa players, i just think that Villa is weaker than other top 5 contenders. And, this season is proof how easily in this league you can go in cold streak. Your squad depth will cost you. 10 points difference is a big plus though.
 
The next three matches against bottom 5 teams are crucial. Win them all, get our AFFON/ injuries back AND sign a midfielder then I’d be very confident of top 5. A tall ask though given how obliterated our squad is at the moment though
 
I think we will battle Chelsea for 5th but will come up short unless we seriously upgrade our midfield in January. Wishful thinking , I know but either Anderson or Wharton in January and maybe either Neves or Gardner.
 
FootballHQ said:
Why can't we keep this up?

The three seasons under Emery we've finished on 61, 68 and 66 points. The first season he took over 12 games in when we were above bottom three on GD so that year could've been more aligned to last two years.

To get to 70 points we need 9 wins and 4 draws from final 20 games.

Chelsea look vulnerable though. Four times this season they've failed to win games at Stamford Bridge from winning positions and if your home form is dodgy it's a struggle to finish much higher than 6th so they're the most vulnerable team of the higher group currently as would expect Liverpool to sign at least one new CB in January and so they will get more consistency in second half of the season.
Click to expand...
Not that xG is incredibly important, but aren't you wildly outperforming in that category, to the tune of 16 points better off or something? Unlikely to continue probably?
 
RedC said:
Not that xG is incredibly important, but aren't you wildly outperforming in that category, to the tune of 16 points better off or something? Unlikely to continue probably?
Click to expand...

xG always has outliers in a season and in any case the majority of our goals in last few weeks have actually been scored inside the penalty area for anyone still thinking we are just scoring long range bangers every week.
 
I think the order they are in now is the order they will finish;

Arsenal
City
Villa
Liverpool
Chelsea

Amorim is just not convincing so I can't see United getting into the top 5. Also hate how he has ruined Mainoo's early career. The kid should be looking forward to continuing his good work from the previous Euros in the upcoming World Cup. Instead, he's in the wilderness, for club and Country.

I think Arsenal take the title over City merely because I can't see Arsenal failing again for the 3rd or 4th time in a row. At some point they've got to stumble over the finish line in first place.
 
Those dropped home points against Everton (with 10 men), Bournemouth and West Ham, who were in poor form coming into the game, are going to prove costly for us.
 
As soon as Villa lose a game they will start dropping lots of points. What they are doing is unsastainable.
 
WeePat said:
The top 2 will be clear. Villa will eventually slow down and fall into the chasing pack. Their current form feels unsustainable.

1. City
2. Arsenal


3. Villa
4. Liverpool
5. Chelsea
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Agreed. Chelsea are probably the team we might catch but it is still unlikely. Need Bruno, Amad and Mbeumo back asap for that to happen. Can see Liverpool finish ahead of Villa and might even challenge for the title.
 
Cathy Ferguson said:
Agreed. Chelsea are probably the team we might catch but it is still unlikely. Need Bruno, Amad and Mbeumo back asap for that to happen. Can see Liverpool finish ahead of Villa and might even challenge for the title.
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We're level on points at the moment so it's not about catching us. I just think we'll eventually stabilise once the December madness is over and put a good run together. We've followed the same script the last 2 seasons.
 
sizzling sausages said:
Arsenal
City
Liverpool
Villa
Chelsea
United

I think we'll just miss out. Top 3 are just easily the 3 best teams in the league. And then don't see us making up 10 points on Villa in half a season and Chelsea are more capable of going on a run than we are. Think we'll have more games where we drop points by not being able to break teams down than they will.
Click to expand...
This.
 
sizzling sausages said:
Arsenal
City
Liverpool
Villa
Chelsea
United

I think we'll just miss out. Top 3 are just easily the 3 best teams in the league. And then don't see us making up 10 points on Villa in half a season and Chelsea are more capable of going on a run than we are. Think we'll have more games where we drop points by not being able to break teams down than they will.
Click to expand...

Liverpool are easily the third best in the league, based on what? That's not what the stats are showing this season at all.
 
Long way to go but 10 points is huge for Villa. The fixtures will build up for them though and the pressure will increase, plenty of teams have bottled similar positions before.

I think we can and should finish in the top 5. We should be finishing ahead of Chelsea IMO, and they'll be the biggest competitor for it once Liverpool you assume figures it out more.
 
WeePat said:
We're level on points at the moment so it's not about catching us. I just think we'll eventually stabilise once the December madness is over and put a good run together. We've followed the same script the last 2 seasons.
Click to expand...

Think for Chelsea the best bet would be going out of CL at last 16 round. Had a very good run in last season but that was with no domestic cup commitments and you were playing your B side in Conference league right up to the final.

Longer CL run and think the inconsistent league results will continue.
 
FootballHQ said:
Think for Chelsea the best bet would be going out of CL at last 16 round. Had a very good run in last season but that was with no domestic cup commitments and you were playing your B side in Conference league right up to the final.

Longer CL run and think the inconsistent league results will continue.
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I know what you mean, but sounds crazy that going out of a competition is your best bet to qualify for that competition again.
 
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