Race for top 5 (confirmed)| Possibly 6th gets CL

[sewey89]

Its not beyond the realms of possibility we lose all of those. Brentford one of our (many) bogey teams. Liverpool who we're generally shit against and 2 tough away games.

I don't want to make excuses but that month long break at a crucial time in the season has done us no favours whatsoever.

4 wins out of 4 against them at home in the Premier League.

 

[Judas]

Liverpool at home is the sort of game we will thrive in under Carrick and how we currently are. I can't say I'm worried too much, especially as they're a bag of shite this season.

 

[Fortitude]

Some of you have been having jollies in the Rosenior thread; you better hope he doesn’t turn us over at their place!

 

[Adz_99]

Some of you have been having jollies in the Rosenior thread; you better hope he doesn’t turn us over at their place!

Chelsea could have Mr Blobby as their manager and I still wouldn't feel confident at Stamford Bridge.

I'm expecting a draw. I think both sides would be happy enough with that outcome. They'll score first, we'll equalise and then both teams will shut up shop.

 

[Offside]

Not confident.

We struggle against Brighton. Chelsea and Liverpool will be tricky games even though they are in awful form. We have not been great against Forest in the last few seasons. Sunderland away is tricky.

Leeds was our only ‘easy’ fixture and we screwed that up badly. We need to wake up and can’t afford to keep starting slowly in games or sleepwalking through them. The next two games are against teams that are both fighting for 5th, if we manage to win those, then we pretty much have secured champions league, but that’s easier said than done.

Few points:

This season we have beaten Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea but have failed to beat Wolves (home), West Ham and Leeds. There are no easy games for us. We seem genuinely just as likely to beat Liverpool at home than we are Leeds.

Your whole point concentrating on our games fails to consider the 7 point lead we have on Chelsea, which even if cut to 4 at the weekend, they still have Brighton away, Liverpool away, Sunderland away and two relegation threatened teams, who will be desperate for points, at home. If we want to highlight their recent form then you could convince someone that they won't win a single one of those games.

 

[The Big Magc]

I think fans are overreacting a little bit.

We are acting like we have had a consistent manager, tactics and finished well last season only to dissappint us this season.

We were like 15th last year. We are 3rd in a league where we had our main manager sacked, an interim manager that may be a Championship level manager but we are still 3rd. Our target was Champions league football.

Not only are we the most highest team in the table not competing for the title, it's not like Chelsea and Liverpool are in great form either.

Having bad results can be beneficial if we still manage to snatch a CL spot because it will prove to us if Carrick is good enough of a manager or not.

A manager is more important than shouting at Yoro or Ugarte. We need to focus on getting a few more wins or even draws when we play our rivals for CL and then see Carrick without red Tinted Glasses if he deserves a contract here or not.

 

[Bojan11]

Few points:

This season we have beaten Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea but have failed to beat Wolves (home), West Ham and Leeds. There are no easy games for us. We seem genuinely just as likely to beat Liverpool at home than we are Leeds.

Your whole point concentrating on our games fails to consider the 7 point lead we have on Chelsea, which even if cut to 4 at the weekend, they still have Brighton away, Liverpool away, Sunderland away and two relegation threatened teams, who will be desperate for points, at home. If we want to highlight their recent form then you could convince someone that they won't win a single one of those games.

I was not just talking about Chelsea. Brentford and Everton are in decent form. 7 or 8 point gap could easily turn into 2 or 3 point gap in the next few weeks, if we don’t improve. Chelsea and Liverpool might be shit; but we just lost to a team who had not won in six.

Yes, we have beaten Liverpool, City, Arsenal and Chelsea, but we went into all those games as underdogs. That’s changed now due to Chelsea and Liverpool being crap. The pressure will be on us to get the results and as we have seen time and time again that some of these players don’t do well when the onus is on them to win.

 

[MiceOnMeth]

We'll limp over the line because the other teams are even more shit than us

 

[WeePat]

If we make it into the CL from here, whichever team finishes below us should be utterly embarrassed with themselves.

 

[bosnian_red]

If we make it into the CL from here, whichever team finishes below us should be utterly embarrassed with themselves.

United and Villa are on pace for 65 points and tied for 3rd this season which wouldn't have been enough for even 5th last season. It's basically been a get out of jail free year and whoever fecks up the least will get 3rd rather than 3rd being any strong team.

The top end of the prem is just seriously weak this year.

 

[bosskeano]

dropping those 3 points last night was a massive set back to make the top 5 ....we lose at chelsea and it's going to be a damn nervy last 5 matches especially with us still having to play Liverpool

 

[jadajos]

dropping those 3 points last night was a massive set back to make the top 5 ....we lose at chelsea and it's going to be a damn nervy last 5 matches especially with us still having to play Liverpool

Opta has the probability of United in the top 5 at 90.22%, higher than Arsenals title odds (86.66%). Quite a lot of rather improbable things would need to go wrong for United to miss out at this point.

 

[always_hoping]

I said a few pages back on this thread that Man Uniteds hopes of securing Champions league football will likely rest in player availability. Even last night without Maguire,Mainoo the strength in depth of the United panel is no where close to where it should be for a club of Uniteds size and tradtion

 

[Offside]

dropping those 3 points last night was a massive set back to make the top 5 ....we lose at chelsea and it's going to be a damn nervy last 5 matches especially with us still having to play Liverpool

They also have to play Liverpool?

 

[Offside]

Opta has the probability of United in the top 5 at 90.22%, higher than Arsenals title odds (86.66%). Quite a lot of rather improbable things would need to go wrong for United to miss out at this point.

Having Arsenal at 87% to win the title is pure nonsense. There’s a genuine case that the smart money is on City.

 

[Dominos]

Chelsea could have Mr Blobby as their manager and I still wouldn't feel confident at Stamford Bridge.

I'm expecting a draw. I think both sides would be happy enough with that outcome. They'll score first, we'll equalise and then both teams will shut up shop.

Why would Chelsea be happy with a draw? They need to win to get top 5.

 

[Andycoleno9]

Chelsea could have Mr Blobby as their manager and I still wouldn't feel confident at Stamford Bridge.

I'm expecting a draw. I think both sides would be happy enough with that outcome. They'll score first, we'll equalise and then both teams will shut up shop.

Chelsea will go all in in this game. It is must win game for them.

 

[Adz_99]

Why would Chelsea be happy with a draw? They need to win to get top 5.

Chelsea will go all in in this game. It is must win game for them.

Yeah I thought they were closer to top 5 than they are. I still think a draw is on the cards though.

 

[Dominos]

Having Arsenal at 87% to win the title is pure nonsense. There’s a genuine case that the smart money is on City.

The statistical modelling presumably isn't taking into account what we learned from previous seasons, momentum, psychology, Arsenal fatigue from midweek CL ties.

For example, their model probably has Arsenal almost as likely to beat City as City are to beat Arsenal. Whereas all football fans I know have basically already given City the 3 points for beating Arsenal because they've seen this script before and you can generally sense when a team is falling apart mentally and when the other has the momentum.

Likewise fans have given City the 3 points already for their game in hand against Palace because history suggests Pep teams don't mess up these games in close title races. But Opta's simulation will factor in some probability City don't win this game as they've dropped points to Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton and Forest at home already.

 

[Judas]

Yeah I thought they were closer to top 5 than they are. I still think a draw is on the cards though.

and I don't think that would be the end of the world for us, even a draw with Liverpool too, although obviously you always want to beat those pricks. The pressure is on Chelsea and Liverpool to beat us, not the other way around.

 

[Stickz]

and I don't think that would be the end of the world for us, even a draw with Liverpool too, although obviously you always want to beat those pricks. The pressure is on Chelsea and Liverpool to beat us, not the other way around.

draws a great result.

Keeps them 7 behind us with 18 to play for. They’re playing Liverpool too.

It would more or less ensure we finish above them.

 

[Offside]

Why would Chelsea be happy with a draw? They need to win to get top 5.

They would probably be content enough just to stop the rot.

 

[Dave Smith]

Chelsea are absolutely dire. I fully expect them to finish midtable. Brentford draw and don't win, Everton get a result then don't follow it up. The current top five will be the top five at the end of the season. All that needs to be decided is the positioning. One team may get lucky and finish 6th and get CL virtue of Villa winning the Europa but that is about it.

 

[croadyman]

Not confident.

We struggle against Brighton. Chelsea and Liverpool will be tricky games even though they are in awful form. We have not been great against Forest in the last few seasons. Sunderland away is tricky.

Leeds was our only ‘easy’ fixture and we screwed that up badly. We need to wake up and can’t afford to keep starting slowly in games or sleepwalking through them. The next two games are against teams that are both fighting for 5th, if we manage to win those, then we pretty much have secured champions league, but that’s easier said than done.

Yeah there's no doubt Leeds looked the most favourable fixture left, hard not to feel worried about the rest given our recent records in those fixtures. Definitely not gonna be the comfortable qualification that looked on if we had won on Monday

 

[Dave Smith]

Yeah there's no doubt Leeds looked the most favourable fixture left, hard not to feel worried about the rest given our recent records in those fixtures. Definitely not gonna be the comfortable qualification that looked on if we had won on Monday

Leeds to be fair where underestimated. People where looking at their results rather than their performances. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Utd already have enough points for CL. Honestly, the chasing pack aren't great and even more inconsistent.

 

[Adz_99]

Yeah looking at the remaining fixtures, im not sure anyone in the chasing pack gets more than 7-10 points so we're probably not far off the required points total. One more win does it.

Chelsea
Apr 18: vs Manchester United (H)
Apr 21: vs Brighton (A)
May 4: vs Nottingham Forest (H)
May 9: vs Liverpool (A)
May 17: vs Tottenham Hotspur (H)
May 24: vs Sunderland (A)


Sunderland
Apr 19: vs Aston Villa (A)
Apr 24: vs Nottingham Forest (H)
May 2: vs Wolves (A)
May 9: vs Manchester United (H)
May 17: vs Everton (A)
May 24: vs Chelsea (H)



Brighton & Hove Albion
Apr 18: vs Tottenham Hotspur (A)
Apr 21: vs Chelsea (H)
May 2: vs Newcastle United (A)
May 9: vs Wolves (H)
May 17: vs Leeds United (A)
May 24: vs Manchester United (H)



Everton
Apr 19: vs Liverpool (H)
Apr 25: vs West Ham United (A)
May 4: vs Manchester City (H)
May 9: vs Crystal Palace (A)
May 17: vs Sunderland (H)
May 24: vs Tottenham Hotspur (A)

Brentford
Apr 18: vs Fulham (H)
Apr 27: vs Manchester United (A)
May 2: vs West Ham United (H)
May 9: vs Manchester City (A)
May 17: vs Crystal Palace (H)
May 24: vs Liverpool (A)

 

[Donut]

I know it’s been mentioned, but if Villa win the EL and finish top5 does 6th get CL?

 

[matsdf]

I know it’s been mentioned, but if Villa win the EL and finish top5 does 6th get CL?

"It is for this reason, under the 2024–27 club competition format, that if the Europa League winners have also qualified for the league phase of the Champions League via their domestic league position, then the club with the best individual coefficient of all the teams in Champions League qualifying (champions path and league path) goes directly into the league phase."
Benfica was awarded this a season ago (when Atalanta won EL).

 

[Andycoleno9]

I know it’s been mentioned, but if Villa win the EL and finish top5 does 6th get CL?

Only if Villa finish 5th.

 

[Shane88]

Only if Villa finish 5th.

That's a nice, if specific, insurance card to have if we bottle enough to go from 3rd to 6th.

 

[Andycoleno9]

That's a nice, if specific, insurance card to have if we bottle enough to go from 3rd to 6th.

Yeah, but they still need to win EL (which i think they will) AND finish exactly 5th. I don't think that they will finish bellow Chelsea. Especially with their schedule.

 

[P-Nut]

Yeah, but they still need to win EL (which i think they will) AND finish exactly 5th. I don't think that they will finish bellow Chelsea. Especially with their schedule.

Are you all just ignoring the qualification rules posted above or am I missing something? It wouldn't go to 6th place it would go to the highest coefficient in the qualifying phase

 

[FortunaUtd]

Are you all just ignoring the qualification rules posted above or am I missing something? It wouldn't go to 6th place it would go to the highest coefficient in the qualifying phase

I think it may be the case that places 1-4 count as "qualifying for league phase via domestic position", while the 5th place is qualification via the extra spot awarded to this current seasons top 2 country coefficients, "European performance spots", which is a separate qualification path. So maybe what they mean is that if Villa finish 5th or lower and win EL, they qualify as EL winners while the next best team after top 4 gets the additional "European performance spot".
Honestly it's very hard to find information about the exact mechanisms of the qualification in the various specific scenarios.

 

[FortunaUtd]

Are you all just ignoring the qualification rules posted above or am I missing something? It wouldn't go to 6th place it would go to the highest coefficient in the qualifying phase

I think it may be the case that places 1-4 count as "qualifying for league phase via domestic position", while the 5th place is qualification via the extra spot awarded to this current seasons top 2 country coefficients, "European performance spots", which is a separate qualification path. So maybe what they mean is that if Villa finish 5th or lower and win EL, they qualify as EL winners while the next best team after top 4 gets the additional "European performance spot".
Honestly it's very hard to find information about the exact mechanisms of the qualification in the various specific scenarios.

As has happened in the previous two years under the new format of the European club competitions, the 2026/27 European Performance Spots will go to the two associations with the best collective performance by their clubs in the 2025/26 UEFA men's club competitions (i.e. the best association club coefficient of the previous season, based on the total number of club coefficient points obtained by each club from an association, divided by the number of clubs from that association, in accordance with Annex D of the competition regulations).

Those two associations will each earn one automatic place in the league phase – the 'European Performance Spot' – for the club ranked next-best in their domestic league behind those clubs that have already qualified directly for the league phase.

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsl...champions-league-which-teams-are-in-the-euro/

Hard to tell though whether the "already" in "have already qualified directly" includes the EL winner's qualification or whether not. Probably not even UEFA know.

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish outside the top-four, England gets 6 CL spots: The 4 via the league, the EPS and the Europa League winner.

 

[Alex99]

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsl...champions-league-which-teams-are-in-the-euro/

Hard to tell though whether the "already" in "have already qualified directly" includes the EL winner's qualification or whether not. Probably not even UEFA know.

Winning either the Champions League or Europa League would constitute "already" qualifying.

If you go to the bottom of that page, they basically have a ranking of how places in the competition are awarded:

1. Champions League winner
2. Europa League winner
3. League position
4. Performance Spots
5. Successful qualifiers from the "champions path"
6. Successful qualifiers from the "league path"

When they used to have a limit on the number of teams that could qualify from one country, 1 and 2 caused a team in a qualifying spot to lose their place (as Spurs did when Di Matteo won the CL with Chelsea).

While Liverpool were still in the CL, it was possible that England could have seven CL teams next season.

 

[Offside]

That's a nice, if specific, insurance card to have if we bottle enough to go from 3rd to 6th.

Chelsea won’t finish above Villa though so won’t happen.

 

[TheNewEra]

Beyond doubt now?

 

[Chipper]

In the bag.

Not the best win, but that's got to be it now.

 

[Ayoba]

Massive win.

I can breathe now.