I think this window has not changed a whole lot in regards to our chances of a top-4 finish. We have strengthened our defence, but weakened our midfield and attack. It might turn out to be a status-quo in regards to points achieved in a season.
There's been alot of talk about our defence being our biggest problem, and what has hampered our chances of top 4 (Yes, we should be challenging for the league, but reality is we don't..)
Comparing the 6 seasons before and after Fergie left, and we see that :
- We conceede on average 6,5 goals pr season more now than before Fergie left.
- We score on average 20(!) goals less pr season.
Theres a whole lot more points disappearing in the 20 goals less we score, than in the 6,5 we conceede more. Though I agree that last year was terrible, and that needed improving, which it luckily does look like has happened.
But, during this window we sold/rid us of players that was involved (goal or assist) in 31,9% of the goals we scored under Solskjaer. (Lukaku 9+2, Herrera 2+2). We haven't replaced any of them. Our goals scored under Solskjaer would equal to 64-65 goals scored over a season, and be a little over our average post-Fergie.
Instead of trying to replace these goal contributions, we put our hope and faith in it coming from players we already have that have yet to prove capable of pulling out such numbers. Also we hope that our improved defence will reduce the amount of goals conceeded to such a level our points increase enough for a top 4 finish.
I feel too much of our coming season is based on hopes of players turning good, luck in regards to injuries and faith in our youth becoming senior players.
Some of it might turn good, but I feel too much is put up to chance for it all to go well. And to be honest, we need alot to go well in our midfield/attack for us to challenge top 4.