Raucous in the Caucasus: Intense fighting breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[Sir Matt]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...ts-armenian-azeri-border-160402084508361.html

Dozens killed Nagorno-Karabakh clashes
At least 30 soldiers killed as officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan trade blame over fighting in disputed region.

At least 30 soldiers have been killed in fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces along the frontlines of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, officials of both the countries said.

Both sides blamed the other for the fighting that began overnight.

Azerbaijan said on Saturday that Armenian forces killed 12 of its soldiers and shot down a helicopter.

"Twelve Azeri servicemen were killed in action and a helicopter was shot down by Armenian forces," Azerbaijan's defence ministry said in a statement, also claiming that Azeri forces took control of "two strategic heights and a village" in Karabakh.

Azeri troops, meanwhile, killed 18 ethnic-Armenian soldiers, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian said.

"From our side 18 soldiers were killed and some 35 others wounded," Sarkisian said in a televised statement, not specifying if the soldiers belonged to Yerevan-backed separatist forces in Karabakh or Armenia's armed forces.

The Armenian Defence Ministry spokesperson Artsrun Hovhannisyan wrote on a Facebook post that Armenian forces in the region shot down an Azeri military helicopter, a claim which Azerbaijan denied.

"Active combat is currently under way," Hovhannisyan said. "The Armenian Army has launched a counter-attack. There are victims on both sides but the opposing side has sustained huge losses in manpower and equipment. A [Azerbaijani] helicopter has been shot down." .

Russia urges 'restraint'
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, urged all sides to cease firing and "show restraint", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the control of Armenian military and separatists since a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended in 1994. Years of negotiations have brought little progress in resolving the dispute.

Fighting on Saturday marked the worst clashes since 1994, said David Babayan, spokesman for the region's separatist president.

The self-styled Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Ministry said on Twitter that Azerbaijan attacked Karabakh villages and military units with artillery and air forces, killing a child and wounding two.

"Karabakh army conducts effective protection, causing serious losses to Azerbaijan. We shot down a helicopter attacking to our positions," the Twitter account said.

The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry, quoted by Russian media, said in response that "the information about the downed helicopter was absolute lie and all vehicles were in place. It was another provocation on the part of Armenia".

The ministry also said the fighting began when Armenian forces fired mortars and large-calibre artillery shells across the front line.

Maria Titzian, a lecturer at the American University of Armenia, told Al Jazeera: "For the past 20 months Azerbaijan has been escalating tensions in terms of truce violations."

She added that Azerbaijan was trying to "derail the peace process" as she called on the international community to do more. The violence, she also said, was at its worst since 1994.

"This corner of the world has been long ignored," she said. "I think it's time for the world to pay greater attention to the situation here. It will have a large influence on the greater region if this issue is not resolved peacefully."

This is part of an on-going conflict but seems to have heated up a little today.

 

[VorZakone]

Reckon it won't turn into a full-out conflict but still, both are being stupid.

 

[Revan]

Proxy was between Turkey and Russia, or just an escalation of the cold conflict between those countries?

 

[Jippy]

Great thread title.

 

[2cents]

Referendum to create 'Republic of Artsakh' on Europe's fringe
https://euobserver.com/foreign/136961

Some 100,000 ethnic Armenians are voting on a new name for their territory and new powers for their leader on Monday (20 February) in the crosshairs of Azerbaijan’s artillery and missiles.

The referendum, in what used to be called the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, but what is likely to be called the Republic of Artsakh after the vote, comes in reaction to Azerbaijan’s military assault last April, which claimed between 50 and 350 lives on both sides.

The conflict, which dates back to the break-up of the Soviet Union, and which sees almost daily exchanges of fire on the line of contact, has the potential to quickly escalate into a fight between Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh’s neighbour and sponsor, and Azerbaijan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are both negotiating new treaties with the EU as part of its Eastern Partnership policy to build closer ties with former Soviet states.

But if the conflict escalates, with missiles striking Yerevan and Baku, that policy would be in tatters, with thousands of refugees instead fleeing to Europe.

It would disrupt Azerbaijan’s oil exports to the EU and plans to build a new gas pipeline, reducing dependence on Russia.

It could also draw in Russia, which has a treaty obligation to defend Armenia, Nato member Turkey, which has pledged to side with Azerbaijan, and Iran, which does not want to see Azerbaijan extend control over its northern border and exert more influence over the ethnic Azeri population in Iran’s northern regions.

This story is the first in a series of features by EUobserver that will examine the issues and look at the lives of ethnic Armenians in a situation which some believe is leading “inevitably” to Europe’s next war.

’We exist’
“It’s not because they don’t recognise us, that we don’t exist,” said an official in Nagorno-Karabakh’s “foreign ministry” in its capital, Stepanakert, on Sunday, while pointing out electoral districts on a map of the mountainous region the size of Luxembourg.

Nagorno-Karabakh split from Azerbaijan in a war in the early 1990s that cost up to 30,000 lives and displaced more than 1 million people in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

It ended with Armenian forces occupying Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other districts in Azerbaijan which it has held on to as a buffer zone.

Various peace plans, mediated by the so-called Minsk Group, which is composed of French, Russian, and US diplomats, have come and gone over the years.

No other country has so far recognised Nagorno-Karabakh, with both the Minsk Group and the EU routinely issuing statements that its elections and referendums have no meaning.

Its government, which has unofficial contacts with EU diplomats, says that the international community could be more constructive. “They could, at least, acknowledge our efforts to create a democratic way of life while maintaining neutrality on the status issue,” a government source told EUobserver on Sunday.

The authorities also mistrust Russia, which has sold billions of euros of arms to Azerbaijan, some of which were used in last April’s four-day war.

The sense of isolation has prompted the “republic” to rely on its own resources and on Armenia to try to safeguard its future.

Artsakh claim
Monday’s referendum is to alter the constitution, giving its president the power to take swift decisions on security issues and changing its name from Nagorno-Karabakh, a mixture of Russian and Turkic words, to Artsakh, an old Armenian word that implies a wider territorial claim not just to the republic, but also to the other seven occupied regions of Azerbaijan.

It is a direct reaction to the shock of Azerbaijan’s surprise attack last year.

It is also a reaction to Azerbaijan’s years-long military build-up and to increasing war rhetoric by Azerbaijan’s leader, Ilham Aliyev.

In a sign of the growing hostility in Baku, Aliyev, already four years ago, cancelled one of the only initiatives that tried to build bridges between people on both sides.

Inina Gzigozian, a Nagorno-Karabakh resident, who started the Public Diplomacy Initiative, an NGO, told EUobserver on Sunday that she used to bring together women from Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan to “exchange stories” in neutral places, such as Cyprus or Georgia.

She spoke of one Azeri “girl” who went to Tbilisi and who initially voiced “hatred,” but who “ended up singing Armenian songs.”

That all ended in 2013 by Aliyev’s order. In today’s climate, Gzigozian said, people in Azerbaijan decline to take part even in Facebook discussions for fear of being caught by Aliyev’s internet police.

Tevan Poghosyan, an Armenian MP, believes that last April’s attack was prompted by Aliyev’s need to shore up his authority amid falling oil prices and a slump in Azerbaijan’s currency, the manat, which aggravated poverty in the Muslim petro-dictatorship.

He said in Yerevan on Saturday that without international intervention war was “inevitable” and that it was likely to happen in 2018, when Aliyev will try to hold on to power in presidential elections amid falling popularity.

Provocation?
Srbuhi Arzumanian, the head of Nagorno-Karabakh’s electoral commission, told press on Sunday that 102,757 people out of the republic’s 147,000 strong population were eligible to cast a ballot.

She noted that Nagorno-Karabakh has already held two referendums and 11 other elections in its 26-year long history.

She said that 104 monitors from more than 30 countries, including three MEPs, would oversee the process.

She also promised that people who fled from Talish, a village destroyed by Azerbaijan last April, would get the chance to vote.

Arzumanian added that there was just one complaint in the last election - a demand for a recount in one district which upheld the original tally.

One of the international monitors, Hans-Jochen Schmidt, Germany’s former ambassador to Armenia, told EUobserver on Monday: “Almost everybody outside Nagorno-Karabakh considers this [the referendum] as an illegitimate act, so they are trying very hard to make sure that it lives up to international standards.”

“Of course, Azerbaijan will consider it as a provocation. They even consider elections here as provocations,” he added.

Hans-Juergen Zahorka, another monitor who is a German former MEP, said that the show of democracy in Nagorno-Karabakh poses a challenge to Aliyev ahead of his own elections next year.

“For many Azerbaijanis, this referendum is an example of opportunities that they will never have under their current system,” he said, referring to Aliyev’s increasingly totalitarian rule.

 

[Kasper]

Do we have Armenian or Azerbaijani experts on this on here by any chance?
A friend of mine is going to a congress in Azerbaijan in April and she's planing on visiting Georgia and Armenia first and cross the Armenian Azerbaijan boarder. Any risk that this won't be possible?

 

[Water Melon]

Do we have Armenian or Azerbaijani experts on this on here by any chance?
A friend of mine is going to a congress in Azerbaijan in April and she's planing on visiting Georgia and Armenia first and cross the Armenian Azerbaijan boarder. Any risk that this won't be possible?

Would be impossible to enter Azerbaijan after visiting Armenia. Georgia - no problems

 

[harms]

Would be impossible to enter Azerbaijan after visiting Armenia. Georgia - no problems

Not really. You can visit Armenia before visiting Azerbaijan, it's possible, although not easy. The problem is, if you visited NK, you are becoming a criminal in Azerbaijan. Now, NK doesn't put their stamps in your passport, so they suspect everyone who visited Armenia in visiting NK (and breaking Azerbaijanian law) - so you'll be questioned on the border, but only about whenever you visited NK or not.

You'd have to say that you don't like Armenia if they ask though. And that you only visited as a tourist

 

[2cents]

Do we have Armenian or Azerbaijani experts on this on here by any chance?
A friend of mine is going to a congress in Azerbaijan in April and she's planing on visiting Georgia and Armenia first and cross the Armenian Azerbaijan boarder. Any risk that this won't be possible?

Would be impossible to enter Azerbaijan after visiting Armenia. Georgia - no problems

Not really. You can visit Armenia before visiting Azerbaijan, it's possible, although not easy. The problem is, if you visited NK, you are becoming a criminal in Azerbaijan. Now, NK doesn't put their stamps in your passport, so they suspect everyone who visited Armenia in visiting NK (and breaking Azerbaijanian law) - so you'll be questioned on the border, but only about whenever you visited NK or not.

You'd have to say that you don't like Armenia if they ask though. And that you only visited as a tourist

I visited Armenia, Georgia and N-K in 2008. The situation then was that in order to visit N-K I had to go to their 'embassy' in Yerevan for a visa which was a full page sticker in my passport. So no chance to visit Azerbaijan after that. I even heard of people carrying the Lonely Planet guide to the Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan being turned back at the Azeri border with Georgia because it has a section on N-K.

However I never heard of anyone back then being refused entry to Azerbaijan after simply visiting Armenia, and knew of plenty of travelers who did it, so maybe the rules have changed since then.

Obviously there is no chance of crossing the border so your friend will have to transit through Georgia.

 

[Kasper]

Would be impossible to enter Azerbaijan after visiting Armenia. Georgia - no problems

Not really. You can visit Armenia before visiting Azerbaijan, it's possible, although not easy. The problem is, if you visited NK, you are becoming a criminal in Azerbaijan. Now, NK doesn't put their stamps in your passport, so they suspect everyone who visited Armenia in visiting NK (and breaking Azerbaijanian law) - so you'll be questioned on the border, but only about whenever you visited NK or not.

You'd have to say that you don't like Armenia if they ask though. And that you only visited as a tourist

I visited Armenia, Georgia and N-K in 2008. The situation then was that in order to visit N-K I had to go to their 'embassy' in Yerevan for a visa which was a full page sticker in my passport. So no chance to visit Azerbaijan after that. I even Hearst of people carrying the Lonely Planet guide to the Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan being turned back at the Azeri border with Georgia because it has a section on N-K.

However I never heard of anyone back then being refused entry to Azerbaijan after simply visiting Armenia, and knew of plenty of travelers who did it, so maybe the rules have changed since then.

Obviously there is no chance of crossing the border so your friend will have to transit through Georgia.

Cheers for the answers. So Nagorno-Karabakh is a no-go but she does't actually want to go there, so that shouldn't be a problem in that case, should it? And why would they assume that everyone who visited Armenia was also visiting NK? It's not a small country and especially if your coming from Georgia it makes sense just to stay in the north and then go to Azerbaijan.

 

[2cents]

Cheers for the answers. So Nagorno-Karabakh is a no-go but she does't actually want to go there, so that shouldn't be a problem in that case, should it? And why would they assume that everyone who visited Armenia was also visiting NK? It's not a small country and especially if your coming from Georgia it makes sense just to stay in the north and then go to Azerbaijan.

No shouldn't be a problem, but she'll have to enter Azerbaijan from Georgia, and probably, as @harms mentions above, have to answer some questions about her time in Armenia.

 

[harms]

Cheers for the answers. So Nagorno-Karabakh is a no-go but she does't actually want to go there, so that shouldn't be a problem in that case, should it? And why would they assume that everyone who visited Armenia was also visiting NK? It's not a small country and especially if your coming from Georgia it makes sense just to stay in the north and then go to Azerbaijan.

Well, because visiting Armenia is a question already and there is a chance of you going to NK since they are so friendly etc. Paranoia, basically.

They also don't allow Armenians or anyone with Armenian surname in the country, so there is that, it's not exactly rational.

 

[2cents]

Armenians have been protesting against the government the last few days, apparently the numbers have been unprecedented. And now this has happened:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[PedroMendez]

Armenians have been protesting against the government the last few days, apparently the numbers have been unprecedented. And now this has happened:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Protest against/for what? What are the implications of the resignation?

 

[2cents]

Protest against/for what? What are the implications of the resignation?

No idea really, know nothing about Armenian politics. I'm sure there's a Cafe member on here who'll fill us in soon...

 

[2cents]

This guy knows the Caucasus:

Armenia’s Revolution and the Legacy of 1988

The unexpected collapse of Armenia’s ruling regime is better understood if you study the story of Armenia’s break with the Soviet regime in 1988. The country has a legacy of peaceful protest, national solidarity, but is also trapped by a strong nationalist discourse.

The Armenian crisis has had many observers of the post-Soviet space scratching their heads. According to conventional analysis, a ruling regime is not supposed to capitulate so easily to street protests. Moreover, Moscow is supposed to get upset when a friendly regime crumbles in a popular uprising.

Modern Armenia has its own peculiarities which deceive the distant observer. They are easier to decipher if you study the story of its exit from Communist rule which began in 1988. That story has several lessons as Nikol Pashinian and his allies look set to take power

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76269

 

[2cents]

 

[RedTiger]

Must have been translated by babelfish.

 

[2cents]

Serious flare-up:

Armenia and Azerbaijan erupt into fighting over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341

 

[izec]

Will never end

 

[2cents]

Continuing today, hopefully it doesn’t escalate much further:

Armenia and Azerbaijan fight over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region

Fierce fighting continues to rage following a flare-up of a decades-old conflict in the Caucasus region of south-eastern Europe.

Dozens of deaths have been reported in battles between forces fighting for Armenia and Azerbaijan.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54323553

 

[Foxbatt]

Are the Turks and the Russians involved in this? The Turks for sure from the Azerbaijan side. Not sure yet about the Russian involvement from the Armenian side.

 

[MadMike]

Are the Turks and the Russians involved in this? The Turks for sure from the Azerbaijan side. Not sure yet about the Russian involvement from the Armenian side.

Technically neither is involved militarily yet, although Turkey has verbally pledged full support for Azerbaijan. Russia is at the moment assuming a more cautious stance and urged both sides to end hostilities.

While traditionally closer to Armenia, who is more in their sphere of influence, Russia have also cultivated good relationships with the power brokers of Azerbaijan over the years and wouldn't want to endanger those unnecessarily. Russia has been selling weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

I'd say both Turkey and Russia will be very cautious, as an intervention by one could draw the other one in. With one proxy war in Syria still bubbling away the last thing either can afford is a 2nd front. Although Turkey is in fact already involved in 2 proxy wars, the other one being in Libya against UAE-backed Haftar.

The Turkish economy is teetering as is, with the currency in steady decline, dollar denominated debt become unserviceable for private firms and the central bank running out of foreign currency reserves to prop up the Lira. But who knows if that's enough to stop Erdogan from indulging in another war. Baba Erdogan does as baba Erdogan pleases.

Guardian: Syrian rebel fighters prepare to deploy to Azerbaijan in sign of Turkey’s ambition

 

[Foxbatt]

The man has become a raving lunatic. With UAE, Egypt and now the Russians against him he is going to get his arse spanked. Just like when he shot down the Mig 23.
It's amazing that people like him and Trump are around these days. I am not talking about dictators but raving lunatics.

 

[2cents]

Thomas de Waal is I believe the foremost English language expert on this conflict (he published a well-received book on it in 2003). Anyway he published this report late last year which might interest some here:

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/12/24/nagorny-karabakh-conflict-in-its-fourth-decade-pub-80791

 

[Carolina Red]

Thomas de Waal is I believe the foremost English language expert on this conflict (he published a well-received book on it in 2003). Anyway he published this report late last year which might interest some here:

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/12/24/nagorny-karabakh-conflict-in-its-fourth-decade-pub-80791

That’s for posting this.

 

[MadMike]

The man has become a raving lunatic. With UAE, Egypt and now the Russians against him he is going to get his arse spanked. Just like when he shot down the Mig 23.
It's amazing that people like him and Trump are around these days. I am not talking about dictators but raving lunatics.

Not just UAE (include Saudi here), Egypt and the Russians. Aside from them, as well as Armenia of course, there's also:

• France that has no love for him whatsoever since he decided to intervene in Libya and the Turkish Navy challenged and engaged a (supposedly NATO allied) French frigate that was enforcing UN mandated arms embargo. Macron is a pretty vocal opponent of Erdogan, constantly pressing for sanctions.
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53262725
  https://www.euractiv.com/section/gl...ions-over-turkish-violations-in-greek-waters/
  
  
• Israel that has gone cold on him since the Mavi Marmara incident. But really because he's pandering to Iran and Hamas. Meeting openly with the latter and giving them Turkish citizenships to roam the world and fundraise.
  https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-diplomat-confirms-turkey-giving-citizenship-to-hamas-members/
  https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/i...sessments-see-turkey-as-growing-threat-639629
  
  
• The US that have him on their sights because he's busting the US embargo on Iran via Halkbank's oil-for-gold money laundering scheme. As well as for pandering to Hamas, bringing Russian weapons into NATO (S400) and generally acting belligerent on every given opportunity
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bank-pleads-not-guilty-in-iran-sanctions-case
  https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-u...rkeys-erdogan-for-hosting-hamas-idUKKBN25L29A
  
  
• The Greek club (Greece/Cyprus) that despises him, both for his Libya-Turkey maritime agreement and because he threatens war whenever he's bored
  https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/05/erdogan-threatens-greece-over-disputed-territorial-claims

He's managed to push away and make an enemy of nearly every former ally or regional state. Completely isolating Turkey diplomatically in the process and opening two proxy-war fronts in the space of 10 years. It's pretty impressive going. The worry is the more he's pushed into a corner, the more belligerent he acts and things could turn ugly.

The one thing he holds over Europe at the moment is the 3m Syrian refugees, which Europe would have no way of handling if he unleashed them. It would cause a massive political crisis that could seriously threaten the EU.

 

[Cheimoon]

Yeah, Erdogan seems to want to play the international game by siding with different parties on different issues to get the best of all worlds - but that might end up alienating everyone from Turkey.

Thomas de Waal is I believe the foremost English language expert on this conflict (he published a well-received book on it in 2003). Anyway he published this report late last year which might interest some here:

The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Even if political tensions have eased since 2018, the region remains dangerously militarized.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/12/24/nagorny-karabakh-conflict-in-its-fourth-decade-pub-80791

That's a good read. I was wondering what possible resolutions to the conflict there might be - and essentially, there aren't any within short-term range. Pretty grim.

 

[Foxbatt]

The Iranians are friends of Armenia too. So it looks like Erdogan has chewed a lot more than he can swallow. I do not think he has any significant country backing him now? Maybe the US?

 

[2cents]

The Iranians are friends of Armenia too. So it looks like Erdogan has chewed a lot more than he can swallow. I do not think he has any significant country backing him now? Maybe the US?

Apart from Azerbaijan, Qatar is currently Turkey’s closest regional ally. Religions with Iran are ok. Turkey has good relations with Georgia for the most part.

Things are not going quite as bad for him as depicted above (for the time being). He’s successfully turned back Haftar in Libya, prevented the establishment of a PKK statelet on his southern border, and currently has decent relations with both Trump and Putin personally.

He also still retains a lot of popularity among Muslims globally, which counts for something although it’s hard to measure.

 

[Foxbatt]

Apart from Azerbaijan, Qatar is currently Turkey’s closest regional ally. Religions with Iran are ok. Turkey has good relations with Georgia for the most part.

Things are not going quite as bad for him as depicted above (for the time being). He’s successfully turned back Haftar in Libya, prevented the establishment of a PKK statelet on his southern border, and currently has decent relations with both Trump and Putin personally.

He also still retains a lot of popularity among Muslims globally, which counts for something although it’s hard to measure.

Not really popular anymore worldwide. But the situation of Palestine and his vocal support is what is keeping whatever popularity he has among Muslims worldwide. Most of them know he is a lunatic now. He was very popular initially. Now he is being found out.
Yes in Libya he has stemmed the flow but it is without any Egyptian involvement too. If the Egyptian and the Russians and the French get involved he is going to be spanked. Yes Turkey has a huge military but it is the economy that is going to bring him down. When Putin put sanctions on him he backed down. Putin cannot let him destroy Armenia. They have a security agreement with Russia. It is going to be interesting to see how Putin handles this.

 

[Cheimoon]

Apart from Azerbaijan, Qatar is currently Turkey’s closest regional ally. Religions with Iran are ok. Turkey has good relations with Georgia for the most part.

Things are not going quite as bad for him as depicted above (for the time being). He’s successfully turned back Haftar in Libya, prevented the establishment of a PKK statelet on his southern border, and currently has decent relations with both Trump and Putin personally.

He also still retains a lot of popularity among Muslims globally, which counts for something although it’s hard to measure.

Also, Turkey might be able to 'buy' some friends once they start extracting those gas reserves in the Black Sea. Turkey is also of great geopolitical importance in the area, so none of the big players will really want to turn their backs to Turkey entirely. Still, playing everyone off of each other is always a risky strategy.

 

[2cents]

Not really popular anymore worldwide. But the situation of Palestine and his vocal support is what is keeping whatever popularity he has among Muslims worldwide. Most of them know he is a lunatic now. He was very popular initially. Now he is being found out.
Yes in Libya he has stemmed the flow but it is without any Egyptian involvement too. If the Egyptian and the Russians and the French get involved he is going to be spanked. Yes Turkey has a huge military but it is the economy that is going to bring him down. When Putin put sanctions on him he backed down. Putin cannot let him destroy Armenia. They have a security agreement with Russia. It is going to be interesting to see how Putin handles this.

Well we’ll see. I agree the economy is a wild card for him. But I don’t view him as a lunatic or anything close, I think he’s a very shrewd operator whose basic ideological impulses have sometimes led him to overplay his hand, to Turkey’s detriment. It remains to be seen how long he can continue to check those impulses.

 

[Foxbatt]

Also, Turkey might be able to 'buy' some friends once they start extracting those gas reserves in the Black Sea. Turkey is also of great geopolitical importance in the area, so none of the big players will really want to turn their backs to Turkey entirely. Still, playing everyone off of each other is always a risky strategy.

I agree about Turkey. I am talking about Erdogan. A more sensible man may not be acting this way.

 

[Cheimoon]

I agree about Turkey. I am talking about Erdogan. A more sensible man may not be acting this way.

Not entirely, but I don't think he's completely off it. I guess I'm somewhere between you and @2cents on Erdogan. I think he's playing the strategic game pretty well, but he does seem a bit of a megalomaniac, plus there are some social issues that he is fixated on (as 2cents said). I think that's causing him to both overplay his hand (by trying to play people off of each other) and miss opportunities (Turkey could be much more united internally if he weren't such an autocrat and conspiracy theorist).

(I feel such a keyboard warrior, making this kind of assessment about such a big geopolitical situation. )

 

[2cents]

Just to add to my post above, I forgot to mention that Erdogan has excellent relations with the current Pakistani government under Imran Khan (and Pakistan as a nation has always had very warm feelings towards Turkey).

Anyway...

Armenia claims fighter jet shot down by Turkey as conflict with Azerbaijan grows

Ankara and Baku deny downing of warplane

Armenia said that one of its fighter jets was shot down in its confrontation with Azerbaijan, blaming Turkey’s air force despite denials by both Ankara and Baku.
Armenia claimed that a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down one of its Su-25 warplanes over its own territory, killing the pilot.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.ind...urkey-plane-nagorno-karabakh-b697190.html?amp

 

[Foxbatt]

Not entirely, but I don't think he's completely off it. I guess I'm somewhere between you and @2cents on Erdogan. I think he's playing the strategic game pretty well, but he does seem a bit of a megalomaniac, plus there are some social issues that he is fixated on (as 2cents said). I think that's causing him to both overplay his hand (by trying to play people off of each other) and miss opportunities (Turkey could be much more united internally if he weren't such an autocrat and conspiracy theorist).

(I feel such a keyboard warrior, making this kind of assessment about such a big geopolitical situation. )

Why should you feel like that? You may have a lot of knowledge about it. The guy CNN touts as an expert in Russia doesn't even speak Russian and some of them have never been to that country.
Lots of people here comment on here have been only getting their stuff from newspapers or TV.
I have never been to Armenia or Azerbaijan so why asking about it. I have been to Turkey plenty of times though.

 

[Cheimoon]

Why should you feel like that? You may have a lot of knowledge about it. The guy CNN touts as an expert in Russia doesn't even speak Russian and some of them have never been to that country.
Lots of people here comment on here have been only getting their stuff from newspapers or TV.
I have never been to Armenia or Azerbaijan so why asking about it. I have been to Turkey plenty of times though.

Also, it's a forum, we're here to chat about stuff. I know! I just felt funny judging Erdogan on his work. As if I know better what to do if I were a head of state! But again, it's a forum, not a scientific journal.

I've never been to Turkey either actually. But having studied the ancient Middle East, and especially Turkey, back when I was a researcher, it's a region that really interests me.

 

[africanspur]

I'm not sure I've ever really subscribed to the mad dog Erdogan theory. He's certainly very aggressive, and not my cup of tea, either in his politics or the way he interacts with other countries. But I think most of what he does makes sense from a Turkish geopolitical PoV. I think its unacceptable for almost any Turkish leader, regardless of their own political leanings, to allow a quasi-independent Kurdish state linked to the PKK on their southern border.

Also, for all of the teeth gnashing from the likes of Egypt, UAE and weirdly France, the Tripoli government in Libya is the internationally recognised one. I feel like I'm missing something here when it comes to this analysis. Haftar is yet another in a long line of wannabe military dictators in the region, he's essentially a warlord. As for the Egyptian military, they're essentially a corrupt construction company at this point and face an existential threat about 1500km south.

For his support amongst the Arabs specifically, that's pretty sharply split now based on your personal beliefs. If you're an Islamist (or even lean slightly towards that way of thinking), Erdogan is an amazing leader. If you're a supporter of the status quo (whether that be the military or monarchy in your particular country), he's the devil. Very little in between.


This particular conflict sounds long, complicated and incredibly sad. With seemingly not much chance of resolution in the short term? How sad.

 

[MadMike]

Also, Turkey might be able to 'buy' some friends once they start extracting those gas reserves in the Black Sea. Turkey is also of great geopolitical importance in the area, so none of the big players will really want to turn their backs to Turkey entirely. Still, playing everyone off of each other is always a risky strategy.

No chance. Those deposits will barely have ~0.5% effect on GDP and will be consumed domestically to reduce reliance on Iran and Russia.

Quora - Will gas discovery in the Blas Sea save the Turkish economy?