I can’t help but feel we’re seeing a lot of adjusted rationale, let’s call it, for players to fit into tidy, multi-buy shopping lists. For example, setting an arbitrary budget and then doing the kind of financial manipulation that could get you a job in City’s accountancy department.
I am by no means an authority on player valuations, but I think I’m in line with others who seem to assess the players, clubs and situations for what they are and then try to draw a logical conclusion to the price of the player in question. I think wages are also paramount, which is why I generally think of transfer fee as well as the wage outlay. Not many people bother with the additional costs: agent and intermediary fees, signing bonuses, PL levies, performance guarantees and so and so forth. So we’ll leave that stuff off the table.
What I would like us to attempt is a realistic muppet table of transfer valuations that aren’t pie in the sky to suit a narrative. Would be great to have a decent consensus that can be adjusted where applicable as the transfer window goes on. It would also be interesting to see how accurate it turns out to be… perhaps the perceived undercutting turns out to be correct after all. Who knows?
I’m crap with formatting, so perhaps one of you takes that to hand. The OP can be adjusted accordingly.
Dewa, prices:
Eliot Anderson:
Price: £100m - £120m. Wage: £200k p/w
Reasoning: Hottest available talent in the Premier League who has already been touted as a £120m sale by Forest’s owner. Even if that turns out to be an exaggeration, it won’t be by more than £20m, in my opinion. Said to be United’s #1 target. Also rumoured to be a sure thing for City… you’d not be surprised if other suitors appear and try their luck, namely Chelsea and Liverpool. It’s not unfair to say every single team at the top end of the table might be in for him as all need midfielders and none have settled, starting midfield units. Forest have also stayed up, which basically rubber stamps top-end valuation - nobody is getting him for cheap. I think those wages (or more) are a given unless his agent is rubbish. Anderson is also a likely starter at the World Cup; the only thing that can do is have his value go up, should he have a good tournament.
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Price: £70m - £80m. Wage: £300k p/w
Reasoning: Rated as one of the best defensive midfielders in the world by quite a lot of you. He also starts for Real Madrid. You’re talking premium rates for sale and wage here - biggest earner of the summer if he moves to the PL (outside of attackers), in my opinion. He’s moving into his prime years now, which means his biggest contract or contract renegotiation (outside of Saudi) in his career. Tchouameni would be moving as a star, on star money from a superstar club. That doesn’t come cheap off name and reputation alone, he’s also likely to play a prominent role in a France team many expect to see in no less than the semifinals of the World Cup, which means plenty more exposure and an ever increasing financial package should he shine, which he’ll have every chance to do in such a stacked team.
Sandro Tonali:
Price: £70m - £80m. Wage: £150k p/w - £180k p/w
Reasoning: Some rate him, others don’t, but whatever you think, he’s not going to go for less than £70m (unless it’s abroad). Like Tchouameni, fixing for his aged prime move and/or contract, which means he’s likely at the peak of his earning potential and will want monies commensurate with that. Not going to the World Cup, desperate to leave Newcastle and not leaving a particularly happy trail behind himself. This one comes down to who is prepared to fork out so much for so… he may find himself in a blink first situation with Newcastle and some brinksmanship at the end of the window to get the release he so desperately wants. I personally think a lot of clubs will shop around for other players and then come back to Tonali in the latter period of the window to see if Newcastle will be more reasonable. I don’t think there will be a scramble for him at the start of the window as there’s no reason to do that.
Mateus Fernandes:
Price: £50m - £65m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Highly coveted with PSG, Bayern, United, Arsenal all said to be interested, and likely more top clubs will throw their hat into the ring. There are two big problems with Fernandes in terms of an above board, all out in the open sale: PSG and “super agent,” Jorge Mendes. PSG can pay in a lump sum; they can also offer more… nudge, nudge, wink, wink. Mendes is a problematic character when he wants to be, but he’s sharp as a tack, and nothing tends to get by him or go awry in terms of his clients, so smoothing his palms is likely pivotal in picking up this young prospect. Outside of that, even if PSG don’t push through, there’s increasing interest from truly top clubs to the point he’s not going cheap or for a bargain even if West Ham are relegated. Fortunately for interested parties, he’s not going to the World Cup, so you would imagine there’s lots of scrambling for him behind the scenes in preparation for the opening of the transfer window. The supposed relegation clause is said to be bunkem, so no £40m magical sale West Ham can do nothing about. We won’t know what his top end valuation might actually be until it is clear whether West Ham are a PL team in four days time. With West Ham relegated, his price is likely to drop some.
Alex Scott:
Price: £60m - £70m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Bournemouth are flying. Alex Scott is one of the key components in the team. They have just qualified for European football and he is now most certainly one of the hottest prospects in the Premier League. Bournemouth are not quite Brighton’s or Southampton’s former standing of star factories, but if that xi was stripped for parts, they would not currently be far off, with highly coveted players dotted throughout their side. Scott may want out given Iraola’s plan to leave, but unless he wants a particular club, who also want him, he’s very likely going to go for fair market rate, which I think is currently the £60m - £70m bracket.
Carlos Baleba:
Price: £60m - £80m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Brighton. Old hands at making big money off of their production line. Have already shown they are prepared to keep players if their valuations aren’t met. What fans think he’s worth doesn’t really matter - and opinions on him are polemical to say the least - this is poker with at least one skilled player at the table. Whilst his valuation is difficult, I don’t think his wage would be as he’s not done anything to move that particular needle and if sold, is going to his new club with a lot to prove.
Lewis Hall:
Price: £50m - £60m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: A potential world class left back who has supposedly fallen out with his manager. He’s one of the jewels in the Newcastle crown and one that lowers their bar and raises that of the club that lands him so there’s no way he comes cheap. Newcastle’s financial woes are said to be prohibitive in terms of keeping their current squad together; Hall is most certainly a player that anyone with the cash who needs a left-back, will be in for in a flash.
Ederson:
Price: £35m - £45m. Wage: £100k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Coming from Serie A from a low profile club, mostly on radars as a cheap, 3rd or 4th piece for a squad.Nobody is looking at him as a starter, unlike all the other players on the list, so he is judged differently. His biggest selling point is potentially getting a lot for relatively little
——
I think that’s it for now, or am I missing anyone else we’re seriously linked with?
The intention is to put some realism to the prices you can expect to see these players go for; counter reasoning welcomed.
I hope the list becomes more extensive as the window opens as it’s quite narrow at the moment.
I am by no means an authority on player valuations, but I think I’m in line with others who seem to assess the players, clubs and situations for what they are and then try to draw a logical conclusion to the price of the player in question. I think wages are also paramount, which is why I generally think of transfer fee as well as the wage outlay. Not many people bother with the additional costs: agent and intermediary fees, signing bonuses, PL levies, performance guarantees and so and so forth. So we’ll leave that stuff off the table.
What I would like us to attempt is a realistic muppet table of transfer valuations that aren’t pie in the sky to suit a narrative. Would be great to have a decent consensus that can be adjusted where applicable as the transfer window goes on. It would also be interesting to see how accurate it turns out to be… perhaps the perceived undercutting turns out to be correct after all. Who knows?
I’m crap with formatting, so perhaps one of you takes that to hand. The OP can be adjusted accordingly.
Dewa, prices:
Eliot Anderson:
Price: £100m - £120m. Wage: £200k p/w
Reasoning: Hottest available talent in the Premier League who has already been touted as a £120m sale by Forest’s owner. Even if that turns out to be an exaggeration, it won’t be by more than £20m, in my opinion. Said to be United’s #1 target. Also rumoured to be a sure thing for City… you’d not be surprised if other suitors appear and try their luck, namely Chelsea and Liverpool. It’s not unfair to say every single team at the top end of the table might be in for him as all need midfielders and none have settled, starting midfield units. Forest have also stayed up, which basically rubber stamps top-end valuation - nobody is getting him for cheap. I think those wages (or more) are a given unless his agent is rubbish. Anderson is also a likely starter at the World Cup; the only thing that can do is have his value go up, should he have a good tournament.
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Price: £70m - £80m. Wage: £300k p/w
Reasoning: Rated as one of the best defensive midfielders in the world by quite a lot of you. He also starts for Real Madrid. You’re talking premium rates for sale and wage here - biggest earner of the summer if he moves to the PL (outside of attackers), in my opinion. He’s moving into his prime years now, which means his biggest contract or contract renegotiation (outside of Saudi) in his career. Tchouameni would be moving as a star, on star money from a superstar club. That doesn’t come cheap off name and reputation alone, he’s also likely to play a prominent role in a France team many expect to see in no less than the semifinals of the World Cup, which means plenty more exposure and an ever increasing financial package should he shine, which he’ll have every chance to do in such a stacked team.
Sandro Tonali:
Price: £70m - £80m. Wage: £150k p/w - £180k p/w
Reasoning: Some rate him, others don’t, but whatever you think, he’s not going to go for less than £70m (unless it’s abroad). Like Tchouameni, fixing for his aged prime move and/or contract, which means he’s likely at the peak of his earning potential and will want monies commensurate with that. Not going to the World Cup, desperate to leave Newcastle and not leaving a particularly happy trail behind himself. This one comes down to who is prepared to fork out so much for so… he may find himself in a blink first situation with Newcastle and some brinksmanship at the end of the window to get the release he so desperately wants. I personally think a lot of clubs will shop around for other players and then come back to Tonali in the latter period of the window to see if Newcastle will be more reasonable. I don’t think there will be a scramble for him at the start of the window as there’s no reason to do that.
Mateus Fernandes:
Price: £50m - £65m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Highly coveted with PSG, Bayern, United, Arsenal all said to be interested, and likely more top clubs will throw their hat into the ring. There are two big problems with Fernandes in terms of an above board, all out in the open sale: PSG and “super agent,” Jorge Mendes. PSG can pay in a lump sum; they can also offer more… nudge, nudge, wink, wink. Mendes is a problematic character when he wants to be, but he’s sharp as a tack, and nothing tends to get by him or go awry in terms of his clients, so smoothing his palms is likely pivotal in picking up this young prospect. Outside of that, even if PSG don’t push through, there’s increasing interest from truly top clubs to the point he’s not going cheap or for a bargain even if West Ham are relegated. Fortunately for interested parties, he’s not going to the World Cup, so you would imagine there’s lots of scrambling for him behind the scenes in preparation for the opening of the transfer window. The supposed relegation clause is said to be bunkem, so no £40m magical sale West Ham can do nothing about. We won’t know what his top end valuation might actually be until it is clear whether West Ham are a PL team in four days time. With West Ham relegated, his price is likely to drop some.
Alex Scott:
Price: £60m - £70m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Bournemouth are flying. Alex Scott is one of the key components in the team. They have just qualified for European football and he is now most certainly one of the hottest prospects in the Premier League. Bournemouth are not quite Brighton’s or Southampton’s former standing of star factories, but if that xi was stripped for parts, they would not currently be far off, with highly coveted players dotted throughout their side. Scott may want out given Iraola’s plan to leave, but unless he wants a particular club, who also want him, he’s very likely going to go for fair market rate, which I think is currently the £60m - £70m bracket.
Carlos Baleba:
Price: £60m - £80m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Brighton. Old hands at making big money off of their production line. Have already shown they are prepared to keep players if their valuations aren’t met. What fans think he’s worth doesn’t really matter - and opinions on him are polemical to say the least - this is poker with at least one skilled player at the table. Whilst his valuation is difficult, I don’t think his wage would be as he’s not done anything to move that particular needle and if sold, is going to his new club with a lot to prove.
Lewis Hall:
Price: £50m - £60m. Wage: £120k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: A potential world class left back who has supposedly fallen out with his manager. He’s one of the jewels in the Newcastle crown and one that lowers their bar and raises that of the club that lands him so there’s no way he comes cheap. Newcastle’s financial woes are said to be prohibitive in terms of keeping their current squad together; Hall is most certainly a player that anyone with the cash who needs a left-back, will be in for in a flash.
Ederson:
Price: £35m - £45m. Wage: £100k p/w - £150k p/w
Reasoning: Coming from Serie A from a low profile club, mostly on radars as a cheap, 3rd or 4th piece for a squad.Nobody is looking at him as a starter, unlike all the other players on the list, so he is judged differently. His biggest selling point is potentially getting a lot for relatively little
——
I think that’s it for now, or am I missing anyone else we’re seriously linked with?
The intention is to put some realism to the prices you can expect to see these players go for; counter reasoning welcomed.
I hope the list becomes more extensive as the window opens as it’s quite narrow at the moment.
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