VAR Accuracy Claims: Does the Increase from 86% to 97% Tell the Full Story?
The frequently cited claim that VAR improves refereeing accuracy from
86% to 97% has become a central argument in the ongoing debate. However, it is worth noting that
three members of the VAR review panel did not support this methodology, suggesting that the figures may warrant closer examination.
The calculation is based on a
single study, which is often presented as a comparison between refereeing accuracy before VAR and after its introduction. A closer look, however, suggests that this characterization may be misleading.
In practice, the methodology primarily measures situations where VAR either:
- Recommended that the referee overturn an on-field decision; or
- Reviewed an incident and chose not to intervene.
Rather than evaluating every decision made during a match, the analysis focuses only on a limited subset of incidents involving VAR intervention or detailed review.
Following the introduction of VAR, assistant referees have also been instructed to apply
"delayed flags" in close situations. This allows attacking phases to continue because VAR cannot review an offense if play has already been stopped.
As a result, the officiating process intentionally permits more potentially incorrect on-field decisions to stand temporarily, with the expectation that VAR will correct them if necessary. This changes how first-instance decisions are recorded and subsequently evaluated.
Another challenge concerns the assumption that every incident has a clear, objective outcome. Many refereeing decisions instead involve significant elements of judgment.
For example:
- A penalty decision may realistically be viewed as a 70–30 judgment.
- A handball decision might be closer to 60–40.
- Many other incidents fall somewhere in between.
Because subjective decisions cannot consistently be reduced to binary "correct" or "incorrect" outcomes, measuring accuracy as though every incident has a definitive answer may overstate the precision of the results.
When VAR recommends changing a decision, the methodology records this as a transition from an incorrect decision to a correct one, awarding full credit to VAR.
However, in many cases the review may simply have shifted the outcome of a genuinely debatable
50–50 decision, rather than correcting an objectively incorrect call.
The report identifies
18 goal decisions that were either awarded or overturned following VAR intervention.
According to this analysis:
- Four of those incidents generated substantial public debate.
- Each involved decisions that could reasonably be interpreted either way or reflected inconsistencies in how similar situations have been officiated across different matches.
If those observations are accepted, more than
20% of the reviewed goal decisions involved incidents where an alternative outcome could also have been considered reasonable. Nevertheless, under the methodology, each overturned decision is recorded as a definitive refereeing error corrected by VAR.
This highlights a broader methodological question.
VAR undoubtedly has the ability to correct significant officiating errors. At the same time, it may also introduce new complexities by encouraging greater uncertainty in marginal situations and by reassessing highly subjective decisions.
The overall conclusion therefore depends less on whether VAR changes decisions—which it clearly does—and more on
how refereeing accuracy is defined and measured.
An additional consideration is the size of the sample used in the calculation.
The reported
86% accuracy is not based on:
- Every refereeing decision made during a match.
- All 1,442 incidents reviewed by VAR.
Instead, it is calculated solely from the
349 incidents that received a detailed VAR review.
If all
1,442 VAR-reviewed incidents are included instead, the corresponding pre-VAR refereeing accuracy increases to approximately
96.6%.
This illustrates that the headline figures depend heavily on the underlying methodology and the choice of sample used to measure officiating performance.