Revolution in Iran

Hanks

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Hearing very strong rumours that the nature of relationship between EU and Islamic Republic will drastically change over the next 10 days....let's wait and see, but expelling of ambassadors isn't out of question :)

The tone has changed a lot, especially from Germany and France (the two big dogs of EU).

Macron yesterday met with the main woman's right activist and the daughter of one of the victims whose mom was shot 50 days ago.





 

Sir Matt

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Amazing to have a whole trial and sentencing within a day. Sounds totally just. I'm sure the poor man will be martyred with similar haste.
 

calodo2003

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‘Waging war against god?!?’ Unbelievable that a judicial system has been created to strengthen the ruse of a fairy tale.
 

Gehrman

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Hard to know what to say about this apart from wanting fascist theocratic regimes to feck off and die and let people live the way they want to.
 

calodo2003

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Hard to know what to say about this apart from wanting fascist theocratic regimes to feck off and die and let people live the way they want to.
Careful, that could be considered islamophobic by some on here.
 

Hanks

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Today is the start of the mass-advertised 3-day protest/strike in memory of 1500+ killed 3 years ago in 3 days after regime completely shutdown the internet. Will post videos as they come later tonight. Ali Karimi has become one of the main leaders of protests now, endorsing and spreading message about protests with his mass platform. Ali Daei said he has refused Qatar's invitation to go to WC with his family and he wants to be with his people in this turbulent times. True legends

Also, Iran's NT is under mass criticism by the public after the team and staff met with Raisi (a couple even bowed down when greeting him) before departing to Doha. They're getting butchered on Instagram comments and even massively criticized by the coach of Persepolis (Iran's best team with most representatives in NT), who called players "without dignity or honour".

It's been told that the players have been told they won't receive their bonuses or financial dues if they don't sing the Islamic Republic anthem before the games....so on Monday vs. England, pre-match will be probably the most important part of the game for many Iranians. I'd personally cheer for England if they sing it.

Football is NOTHING compared to what's happening inside.
 

Hanks

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It's literal war in many cities as i type this right now.....most cities have been on complete strike for 2 consecutive days now, it's like April 2020 lockdown style closure...... sooo many dead tonight....10-year old shot dead in front of his parents probably the most gut-wrenching.

I'll post some tweets containing videos in about an hour
 

TwoSheds

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It's literal war in many cities as i type this right now.....most cities have been on complete strike for 2 consecutive days now, it's like April 2020 lockdown style closure...... sooo many dead tonight....10-year old shot dead in front of his parents probably the most gut-wrenching.

I'll post some tweets containing videos in about an hour
Wow, hopefully the people can string these murderous feckers up by the balls in time.
 

2cents

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@Hanks have any high-profile members of the clerical class come out in support of the protests yet?
 

VorZakone

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Canada's Trudeau deletes tweet falsely claiming Iran has sentenced 15,000 protesters to death.

(CNN)Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau deleted a tweet containing false information on mass death sentences in Iran, after a viral campaign on social media circulated the fake news.

Celebrities and users shared a picture on Instagram showing a woman holding an Iranian flag with the caption "Iran sentences 15,000 protesters to death -- as a 'hard lesson' for all rebels."

Instagram has since tagged the post as "False Information" and said "Independent fact-checkers say this information has no basis in fact."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/worl...se-tweet-iran-mass-executions-intl/index.html
 

Hanks

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@Hanks have any high-profile members of the clerical class come out in support of the protests yet?
only the Imam of Zahedan (which is sunni)....and Khamenei sent his representative to him saying "Those who were killed in the unrest are now guests of god. don't worry about them." ... I swear, word by word. that's how they justify murder. You're now guest of god, thank us for killing you basically !!

Alright, some videos from last 2 nights....most are on Telegram, but I'll send the tweets:

Chanting in Tehran METRO:

Oppression forces attacking the crowd in Tehran metro

More chaos in Tehran metro

Female protestor sent this photo with caption (I'll come back again)

10-year old boy shot dead in izeh

Mass gunshots being heard from Izeh (rumours of tens dead and hundreds injured tonight alone)

Street-war in Ekbatan neighbourhood, Tehran

Shiraz

in Bukan city, reports that people are on verge of taking over the city council

Gorgan



There is a lot more....the strike ones are beautiful. this is just one example in Shiraz,..ugh won't let me post more than 10 tweets in one post.
 

Hanks

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Canada's Trudeau deletes tweet falsely claiming Iran has sentenced 15,000 protesters to death.



https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/worl...se-tweet-iran-mass-executions-intl/index.html
I;'ve seen this fact-checked and claimed as FALSE by mostly left-leaning Western organizations (unfortunately) ....wtf

the "parliament" literally had a vote on it and 80% of them voted for execution of all 15,000 imprisoned. Their request will now be sent to the judiciary (which is the same shit, everything is the same shit, it's so hard to explain the IR system to foreigners, because everything is the same just under different names to create illusion of choice"....and judiciary will slowly give sentences as they have to a few already....that's why WE CAN'T let the flames of revolution die, because they'll execute when the world has forgotten about it and moved on to the next thing.

but yes, it's Fact. the Islamic Republic parliament overhwlemingly voted to vow the Islamic Republic judiciary to issue execution sentence for those detained and imprisoned during the protests for the crime of "Waging war against god" :houllier::houllier::houllier::houllier:


2 more videos:

Oppression forces attacking a woman

Khamenei goons attacking and assaulting a grandma
 

VorZakone

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I;'ve seen this fact-checked and claimed as FALSE by mostly left-leaning Western organizations (unfortunately) ....wtf

the "parliament" literally had a vote on it and 80% of them voted for execution of all 15,000 imprisoned. Their request will now be sent to the judiciary (which is the same shit, everything is the same shit, it's so hard to explain the IR system to foreigners, because everything is the same just under different names to create illusion of choice"....and judiciary will slowly give sentences as they have to a few already....that's why WE CAN'T let the flames of revolution die, because they'll execute when the world has forgotten about it and moved on to the next thing.

but yes, it's Fact. the Islamic Republic parliament overhwlemingly voted to vow the Islamic Republic judiciary to issue execution sentence for those detained and imprisoned during the protests for the crime of "Waging war against god" :houllier::houllier::houllier::houllier:


2 more videos:

Oppression forces attacking a woman

Khamenei goons attacking and assaulting a grandma
I'm not sure I follow. What did the fact-checkers say exactly?
 

2cents

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I'm not sure I follow. What did the fact-checkers say exactly?
It’s the difference between (a) parliament voting to have 15,000 executed (which is what has happened) and (b) 15,000 actually being sentenced to death by the judiciary (what has been reported and subsequently fact-checked/corrected).

As @Hanks says, in the long-term there may be no difference.
 

Hanks

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I'm not sure I follow. What did the fact-checkers say exactly?
That the claim is false and 15,000 haven't been given a death sentence yet.

Well, duh, but the parliament has voted in favour of this and has asked judiciary to do it. It's just semantics.

Truly first world problems
 

VorZakone

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I understand now, thanks both.

It’s the difference between (a) parliament voting to have 15,000 executed (which is what has happened) and (b) 15,000 actually being sentenced to death by the judiciary (what has been reported and subsequently fact-checked/corrected).

As @Hanks says, in the long-term there may be no difference.
That the claim is false and 15,000 haven't been given a death sentence yet.

Well, duh, but the parliament has voted in favour of this and has asked judiciary to do it. It's just semantics.

Truly first world problems
 

2cents

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I understand now, thanks both.
I would add that it seems to me that some of the frustration felt by anti-regime Iranians at this correction appears to be driven by the fact that many of the figures and organizations who have been most vocal about it have generally been less vocal or even ambivalent in their approach to the protests.
 

2cents

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2cents

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From a protest in London, seems like one dude turned up to support the regime and it didn’t go well for him:

 

2mufc0

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On a geopolitical level I'm wondering if the Saudis, Israel and US will get involved to instigate a regime change. The way things are going full scale civil war could be on the cards.
 

Spark

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On a geopolitical level I'm wondering if the Saudis, Israel and US will get involved to instigate a regime change. The way things are going full scale civil war could be on the cards.
They benefit from having the clerics in power.
 

Hanks

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They benefit from having the clerics in power.
EXACTLY. There is a reason none, not a single one of the countries in the region have supported the protests after 2 months.

Israel - IR is perfect for them. Lots of empty threats (IR even warned US to empty their base before they hit in Soleimani's revenge), means Israel can play victim and get load of weapons and defense aid from US.

US & EU - They get the smartest Iranians as brain-drain is a real thing, since in order to get a position within IR you must be in bed with the system. So lots of Iranian genuises and entrepeneurs move to the West with their intellectual capital.

UAE & Dubai - gets loads of Iranian money, those who want to be part of the international banking system

Saudi - see Israel. IR threat means they can get lots of arms. Plus, a non-theocratic democratic Iran could inspire similar uprisings there or other countries in the region.

China & Russia - They get lots of Iranian natural resources in return for either nuclear tips or high-tech surveillance technology (from China)

Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria - They get Iranian national resources money since the regime is more interested in its proxies abroad and terrorism than improving lives of Iranians. That's why you see lots of Twitter users with these flags supporting IR and Khamenei. No body wants to lose free money!
 

TwoSheds

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EXACTLY. There is a reason none, not a single one of the countries in the region have supported the protests after 2 months.

Israel - IR is perfect for them. Lots of empty threats (IR even warned US to empty their base before they hit in Soleimani's revenge), means Israel can play victim and get load of weapons and defense aid from US.

US & EU - They get the smartest Iranians as brain-drain is a real thing, since in order to get a position within IR you must be in bed with the system. So lots of Iranian genuises and entrepeneurs move to the West with their intellectual capital.

UAE & Dubai - gets loads of Iranian money, those who want to be part of the international banking system

Saudi - see Israel. IR threat means they can get lots of arms. Plus, a non-theocratic democratic Iran could inspire similar uprisings there or other countries in the region.

China & Russia - They get lots of Iranian natural resources in return for either nuclear tips or high-tech surveillance technology (from China)

Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria - They get Iranian national resources money since the regime is more interested in its proxies abroad and terrorism than improving lives of Iranians. That's why you see lots of Twitter users with these flags supporting IR and Khamenei. No body wants to lose free money!
I think it's clear that the US and EU aren't big fans of the Iranian regime - see what short shrift Biden was given when he asked Iran to up their gas and oil production after Ukraine was invaded. On the other hand though, being seen to interfere in Iran's internal politics would be counter productive. US and UK are ever the enemy there. Presumably Israel's interference would also be unwelcome. They're probably all doing some meddling in reality but they're not likely to do anything massively obvious like arming a revolution and rightly so I think. The solution has to come largely from within Iran unfortunately.
 

Spark

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I think it's clear that the US and EU aren't big fans of the Iranian regime - see what short shrift Biden was given when he asked Iran to up their gas and oil production after Ukraine was invaded. On the other hand though, being seen to interfere in Iran's internal politics would be counter productive. US and UK are ever the enemy there. Presumably Israel's interference would also be unwelcome. They're probably all doing some meddling in reality but they're not likely to do anything massively obvious like arming a revolution and rightly so I think. The solution has to come largely from within Iran unfortunately.
The US and EU would probably ideally want regime change on the balance of things. owever, as Hanks expertly said, Israel, the Saudis and the Gulf states will positively want the current regime to remain in place at all costs. Iran poses no actual threat to the Israelis and they know that, but banging that war drum has ensured billions of dollars of aid and investment since 1979. Pre 1979 Iran was the main US ally and a significant regional power - probably similar to Turkey today and at the time bigger than Israel. They simply do not want the added competition and under the right regime, Iran can flourish (large, literate population with millions of expats just waiting to go back and invest, opening it up to the world).

On top of that, the Saudis and Gulf states do not want the competition AND a successful revolution on their doorstep.

The biggest irony of middle eastern geopolitics is that the status quo of “mortal enemies” is tacitly agreed by all parties and has fuelled their ambitions. A successful revolution that sees the overthrow of the clerics could have some fantastic implications for the whole middle east - just fantastic for the people, not the rulers.

That’s all a long way off though. We really need the police and armed forces to defect in large scale numbers. Then it’s a case of how many of the IRGC surrender… It’s going to be tough and no one can say what will happen.
 

2mufc0

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Cheers, in that case I really hope this regime falls.
 

VorZakone

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I don't wanna derail the thread too much from the protests that are going on and which deserve attention, but I'm not sure that I buy the notion that Iran's regime is good for the likes of Saudi-Arabia. There's been somewhat of a cold war between Iran & Saudi's ever since the 1979 revolution and if anything, it's the current Iranian regime that threatens the Saudi monarchy from an ideological perspective. That's what I heard in documentaries anyway.
 

2cents

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On a geopolitical level I'm wondering if the Saudis, Israel and US will get involved to instigate a regime change.
The US and almost certainly Israel have been using the MEK to attempt to undermine the regime and conduct clandestine operations in Iran for a long time now. However the MEK are a very weird and dodgy group and seem less popular among Iranians than the regime itself.
 

Hanks

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Something very scary is happening in city of Mahabad tonight. See the below videos. Electricity cut off, heavy artillery, machine guns, crying and screaming ...



My god....They have militarily attacked the city !
 

maniak

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Not sure how feasible this is
If they start massacring people in high numbers surely that's not sustainable. Regular army/police have families too. But anyway, I don't know much about it so, so maybe wishful thinking.