Robert Lewandowski 2019/20 performances

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Kostur, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. Aug 25, 2019
    #41

    do.ob Full Member

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    I'm not saying that penalties don't take skill, it's rather about what kind of skill they take. Your own examples are proof of this, Messi especially, as he's one of the greatest attacking players of all time, yet a mediocre penalty taker. It might as well be a different game and it says absolutely nothing about how good a player is a striker.
    On top of that most teams have several capable penalty takers, making the skill quite redundant, especially in Lewandowski's case as he actually misses the occasional penalty..

    In terms of determining a striker's performance they are stat padding and I really hope some day they are tracked in a separate category. At least in the case of xG some of the providers actually do so already.
  2. Aug 25, 2019
    #42

    SportingCP96 Full Member

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    I agree there are usually multiple good penalty takers in a squad but I still think it a striker scores let’s say 30 goals but 5 or so were penalties I don’t think it should be used against them when looking at there stats.

    Like you were saying though I am sure there are abysmal players who are fantastic penalty takers. But in terms of Lewandowski we are talking about a good player who is also a good penalty taker so it should not be used against him when looking at his goal tally IMO.
  3. Aug 25, 2019
    #43

    do.ob Full Member

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    I'm not really holding it against Lewandowski (or any player for that matter) I personally just count them separately for any player.
  4. Aug 25, 2019
    #44

    SportingCP96 Full Member

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    Fair enough to each there own ;)
  5. Aug 25, 2019
    #45

    kaiser1 New Member

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    Mic drop!!
  6. Aug 25, 2019
    #46

    kaiser1 New Member

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    Some of the small teams Lewandoski scored against

    Vs Barcelona
    [​IMG]

    vs Juventus
    [​IMG]

    vs City
    [​IMG]

    Atletico
    [​IMG]
  7. Oct 5, 2019
    #47

    Kostur Full Member

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    11 in 7 in Bundes, 3 in 2 in CL, overall 15 in 11 games, failed to score in the Supercup only, scored in every single other game for Bayern.
  8. Oct 5, 2019
    #48

    Ban Full Member

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    What is his xG?
  9. Oct 5, 2019
    #49

    Kostur Full Member

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    :lol:
  10. Oct 5, 2019
    #50

    Ban Full Member

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    Just seen bayern has lost. Hoffenheim would absolutely destroy Spurs.
  11. Oct 5, 2019
    #51

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    Interesting you should say that...

    3.27 more than expected this season. Last season he was 11.14 under expected which is by far the worst xG of any striker I can find in a single season. Generally he’s a little bit over or a little bit under, not close to someone like Kane and a long way off Messi.
  12. Oct 5, 2019
    #52

    Ban Full Member

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    It really is interesting, thanks!
  13. Oct 5, 2019
    #53

    Balu Full Member

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    Who wouldn't at the moment?
  14. Oct 5, 2019
    #54

    Ban Full Member

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    United. :(
  15. Oct 5, 2019
    #55

    PedroMendez Acolyte

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    it just shows, that xG is a shitty stat. Either it contains little information or it doesn't describe reality.
  16. Oct 5, 2019
    #56

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
  17. Oct 5, 2019
    #57

    JPRouve can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate Scout

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    I don't want to be involved in the actual conversation but this is where @PedroMendez point is, that's a subjective information, someone makes a judgement call that isn't necessarily translatable.
  18. Oct 5, 2019
    #58

    Suedesi Full Member

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    I wouldn't
  19. Oct 5, 2019
    #59

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    It isn't subjective though is it. The chances are graded from the likelihood of a player scoring from a given position - based on how many players have scored from a similar position in past games. That's essentially how xG works, it seeks to eliminate subjectivity.
  20. Oct 5, 2019
    #60

    Kostur Full Member

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    Only those who only watch the EPL I presume and they still would be in the wrong but it happens.
  21. Oct 5, 2019
    #61

    JPRouve can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate Scout

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    It's subjective because they aren't literally in the same situation while the parameters used are relevant they don't allow to exactly compare the same action because players aren't literally in the same action. While XG is interesting for a player or a team in isolation, I don't think that it should be used to compare two players.
    Also tell me if I'm wrong but if a player scores 1 normal chance and misses 2 easy chances while an other player scores 1 difficult chance and misses 2 easy chances, then the latter will have a better XG even though they missed the same amount of easy chances.
  22. Oct 5, 2019
    #62

    PedroMendez Acolyte

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    I don't know much about xG except its common usage. I might get a few things wrong, so correct my mistakes please.

    There isn't one "xG-stat", but multiple xG-models, that are different. Some are just more popular/free to access (eg. understat). xG tells us the likelihood of an average player (what does this mean? whats the data-set?) scoring from a chance (it doesn't take into account the specific player himself, right?). I couldn't find the methodology of understat.com, but some superficial look into some of this stuff leads me to believe, that an "average player" under-performing by -11 is roughly a 3 σ event (~0,3%). There is absolutely no doubt, that Lewandowski is an "above average player with above average finishing", which makes this even less likely to happen. Its just far more likely that understat.com is trash, than a top forward under-performing by this margin.
  23. Oct 5, 2019
    #63

    TheMagicFoolBus Full Member

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    I mean, the whole point of xG is to point out that the bolded statement is, in fact, not beyond a reasonable doubt. People take away the wrong message from xG all the time though - it's far more valuable to have a striker who gets himself into the best and most efficient positions to score. This is a repeatable and proven skill year over year to a much greater extent than finishing, where there are far too many variables that can be adequately captured by statistical models.

    Also, anyone who thinks Harry Kane is better than Lewandowski needs to have their head checked.
  24. Oct 5, 2019
    #64

    Classical Mechanic Full Member

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    You sound far too emotionally invested here for any reasonable conversation to take place. I’d recommend that you relax.
  25. Oct 5, 2019
    #65

    Pagh Wraith Full Member

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    This video explains everything pretty well:



    Understat's model isn't the best (doesn't account for defensive pressure for example) but it's a good starting point.
  26. Oct 5, 2019
    #66

    PedroMendez Acolyte

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    its a nice explanation and overall that confirms my superficial understanding. I am not against stats in football or against xG. I think its quite useful and interesting. At the same time one should understand its limitations and understand what "extreme" outliers tell us. The video doesn't tell us the specific details how this is calculated, which would be key to understand what we should make of "-11,14". A quick (random) look at the understats data for top forwards indicate that 11,14 is the biggest deviation I could find, but multiple top forwards (kane, ronaldo, Lacazette, Higuain, Dybala, Benzema, Ibra, Lukaku, Messi) had +-8 years. Thats a problem for the model. That doesn't mean, that long-term trends don't tell us anything. Kane and Messi out-perform xG every year. Anyone who watches them should know they they are outstanding finishers. The model doesn't add much understanding here, but its still correct. Yet these extreme deviations are very likely artefacts or overstate these values due to limitations in the model. Its pointless to use them to make an argument.
  27. Oct 26, 2019
    #67

    Kostur Full Member

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    Scored in 13th consecutive game this season.
  28. Oct 26, 2019
    #68

    OutlawGER Full Member

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    unreal.
  29. Nov 8, 2019
    #69

    FujiVice Full Member

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    Just wow.
  30. Nov 8, 2019
    #70

    HTG Full Member

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    On his current form he might be the best player in the world right now. Our situation would be really bad without him.
  31. Nov 8, 2019
    #71

    awop New Member

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    Amazing striker, would have loved to see him play for Madrid or in the PL at some point.
  32. Nov 8, 2019
    #72

    He'sRaldo Full Member

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    I'm really skeptical of the Bundesliga's recent quality, but that's impressive regardless.
  33. Nov 8, 2019
    #73

    GhastlyHun Full Member

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    We're shit as well, so that cancels out, and his greatness remains. :lol:
  34. Nov 8, 2019
    #74

    Tostao_80 New Member

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    One of the best European goalscorers of the last 30 years. In a few weeks, he'll be the 3rd highest goalscorer in Bundesliga history. Might have a chance of top 2 if he plays a few more seasons. In the Champions league/ Euro Cup, he is currently 5th, but has a chance of finishing 3rd behind Leo and Cristiano (Benzema also with a shout) when he finishes his career. Of anyone that has scored 30 or more goals in the competition, he has the 2nd highest goals per game ration among strikers in the last 40 years (behind Ruud).
    He has 60 international goals and probably/ should finish in top 10 of all time in that area. His only black mark here is the lack of tournament goals.
    He's currently on 453 career goals. 3 to 4 more years and he should be in the mid 500s. He could finish his career as the third highest European goalscorer of all time. Simply incredible.
  35. Nov 8, 2019
    #75

    United58 Full Member

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    21 goals this season already!
  36. Nov 8, 2019
    #76

    VorZakone What would Kenny G do?

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    And yet he hasn't really made a significant impact outside the Bundesliga in the last 5 years. Underwhelming in international tournaments, underwhelming in the CL. He's a domestic league machine, no doubt, but hasn't been able to really do anything noteworthy internationally.

    I think the Dortmund-version of him was craftier.
  37. Nov 8, 2019
    #77

    Tostao_80 New Member

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    Did you read his CL stats? Or just ignored them completely?
    This is from 2 posts ago:
    In the Champions league/ Euro Cup, he is currently 5th, but has a chance of finishing 3rd behind Leo and Cristiano (Benzema also with a shout) when he finishes his career. Of anyone that has scored 30 or more goals in the competition, he has the 2nd highest goals per game ration among strikers in the last 40 years (behind Ruud).
    Only Leo and Cristiano have more knock out goals than him in the last 20 years.
    How on earth has he done nothing noteworthy in the CL? Remember his 4 goal haul against Real? He has been great in the CL.
  38. Nov 8, 2019
    #78

    GhastlyHun Full Member

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    That last one was with Dortmund, so case in point for vorzakone
  39. Nov 8, 2019
    #79

    VorZakone What would Kenny G do?

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    That's nice and all but I can't remember a single proper CL big game masterclass from Lewa in the last 5 years. You'd really have to go back to that game against Real in 2013.
  40. Nov 9, 2019
    #80

    gibers Full Member

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    This guy is something else. His scoring rate reminds me of Messi in 111/12 and CRonaldo in the first half of 14/15.