Robert Lewandowski 2019/20 performances

do.ob

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I hate the idea that penalties count less.

They take skill to score. Ask Messi for example or Pogba. Penalties are not easy by an means despite being an easier chance to score.
I'm not saying that penalties don't take skill, it's rather about what kind of skill they take. Your own examples are proof of this, Messi especially, as he's one of the greatest attacking players of all time, yet a mediocre penalty taker. It might as well be a different game and it says absolutely nothing about how good a player is a striker.
On top of that most teams have several capable penalty takers, making the skill quite redundant, especially in Lewandowski's case as he actually misses the occasional penalty..

In terms of determining a striker's performance they are stat padding and I really hope some day they are tracked in a separate category. At least in the case of xG some of the providers actually do so already.
 

SportingCP96

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I'm not saying that penalties don't take skill, it's rather about what kind of skill they take. Your own examples are proof of this, Messi especially, as he's one of the greatest attacking players of all time, yet a mediocre penalty taker. It might as well be a different game and it says absolutely nothing about how good a player is a striker.
On top of that most teams have several capable penalty takers, making the skill quite redundant, especially in Lewandowski's case as he actually misses the occasional penalty..

In terms of determining a striker's performance they are stat padding and I really hope some day they are tracked in a separate category.
I agree there are usually multiple good penalty takers in a squad but I still think it a striker scores let’s say 30 goals but 5 or so were penalties I don’t think it should be used against them when looking at there stats.

Like you were saying though I am sure there are abysmal players who are fantastic penalty takers. But in terms of Lewandowski we are talking about a good player who is also a good penalty taker so it should not be used against him when looking at his goal tally IMO.
 

do.ob

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I agree there are usually multiple good penalty takers in a squad but I still think it a striker scores let’s say 30 goals but 5 or so were penalties I don’t think it should be used against them when looking at there stats.

Like you were saying though I am sure there are abysmal players who are fantastic penalty takers. But in terms of Lewandowski we are talking about a good player who is also a good penalty taker so it should not be used against him when looking at his goal tally IMO.
I'm not really holding it against Lewandowski (or any player for that matter) I personally just count them separately for any player.
 

SportingCP96

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I'm not really holding it against Lewandowski (or any player for that matter) I personally just count them separately for any player.
Fair enough to each there own ;)
 

kaiser1

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It's about as comical as saying that he's done.

Actually for the sake of this thread I've decided to run through statistics of some forwards* of top clubs in Europe. I've picked those who sort of made sense, naturally it's all gonna vary given that some of the clubs are in and out of the CL. I didn't count minutes/GPM because honestly I cannot be arsed, just raw statistics, if somebody wants to expand on it then be my guest.

X - Games total - Goals total - Goals in the knockout stages
Lewandowski (BVB & Bayern) - 80 - 53 - 17
Aguero (Atleti & City) - 68 - 37 - 9
Kane (Spurs) - 19 - 14 - 2
Mbappe (Monaco & PSG) - 25 - 14 - 8
Cavani (PSG) - 59 - 34 - 5
Suarez (Ajax & Barca) - 53 - 21 - 11
Aubameyang (BVB) - 32 - 15 - 3
Griezmann (Sociedad & Atletico) - 54 - 21 - 6
Dybala (Juve) - 35 - 11 - 5
Costa (Atleti & Chelsea) - 28 - 11 - 5
Benzema (Lyon & RM) - 112 - 60 - 17
Piguain (RM, Napoli & Juve) - 75 - 23 - 7

So, as you can see, even Benzema who's considered great in the CL has the same amount of knockout goals and just 7 overall more with 32 more games, check Aguero, Griezmann, Suarez or Cavani's stats to see how shit they actually perform in the knockout stages, clubs like Atleti, Juve or City have been playing in the CL year in year out too, getting out of groups most of the time (hehe City). Those bolded are for those who have played 50+ games in the CL for their clubs.
Mic drop!!
 

kaiser1

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Some of the small teams Lewandoski scored against

Vs Barcelona


vs Juventus


vs City


Atletico
 

Kostur

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11 in 7 in Bundes, 3 in 2 in CL, overall 15 in 11 games, failed to score in the Supercup only, scored in every single other game for Bayern.
 

Ban

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Just seen bayern has lost. Hoffenheim would absolutely destroy Spurs.
 

Classical Mechanic

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What is his xG?
Interesting you should say that...

3.27 more than expected this season. Last season he was 11.14 under expected which is by far the worst xG of any striker I can find in a single season. Generally he’s a little bit over or a little bit under, not close to someone like Kane and a long way off Messi.
 

Ban

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Interesting you should say that...

3.27 more than expected this season. Last season he was 11.14 under expected which is by far the worst xG of any striker I can find in a single season. Generally he’s a little bit over or a little bit under, not close to someone like Kane and a long way off Messi.
It really is interesting, thanks!
 

PedroMendez

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Interesting you should say that...

3.27 more than expected this season. Last season he was 11.14 under expected which is by far the worst xG of any striker I can find in a single season. Generally he’s a little bit over or a little bit under, not close to someone like Kane and a long way off Messi.
it just shows, that xG is a shitty stat. Either it contains little information or it doesn't describe reality.
 

Classical Mechanic

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it just shows, that xG is a shitty stat. Either it contains little information or it doesn't describe reality.
How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
 

JPRouve

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How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
I don't want to be involved in the actual conversation but this is where @PedroMendez point is, that's a subjective information, someone makes a judgement call that isn't necessarily translatable.
 

Suedesi

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How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
I wouldn't
 

Classical Mechanic

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I don't want to be involved in the actual conversation but this is where @PedroMendez point is, that's a subjective information, someone makes a judgement call that isn't necessarily translatable.
It isn't subjective though is it. The chances are graded from the likelihood of a player scoring from a given position - based on how many players have scored from a similar position in past games. That's essentially how xG works, it seeks to eliminate subjectivity.
 

Kostur

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How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
Only those who only watch the EPL I presume and they still would be in the wrong but it happens.
 

JPRouve

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It isn't subjective though is it. The chances are graded from the likelihood of a player scoring from a given position - based on how many players have scored from a similar position in past games. That's essentially how xG works, it seeks to eliminate subjectivity.
It's subjective because they aren't literally in the same situation while the parameters used are relevant they don't allow to exactly compare the same action because players aren't literally in the same action. While XG is interesting for a player or a team in isolation, I don't think that it should be used to compare two players.
Also tell me if I'm wrong but if a player scores 1 normal chance and misses 2 easy chances while an other player scores 1 difficult chance and misses 2 easy chances, then the latter will have a better XG even though they missed the same amount of easy chances.
 

PedroMendez

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How? All it says is that he missed a load of really good chances last year, that he isn't as good as Messi or Kane as a striker (even if you discount last seasons aberration). This season he's outperforming the average of a top striker so far but generally he's fairly average for a top striker in chance conversion. I mean most people would rate Messi as on a completely different level to him and Kane as being better than him anyway.
I don't know much about xG except its common usage. I might get a few things wrong, so correct my mistakes please.

There isn't one "xG-stat", but multiple xG-models, that are different. Some are just more popular/free to access (eg. understat). xG tells us the likelihood of an average player (what does this mean? whats the data-set?) scoring from a chance (it doesn't take into account the specific player himself, right?). I couldn't find the methodology of understat.com, but some superficial look into some of this stuff leads me to believe, that an "average player" under-performing by -11 is roughly a 3 σ event (~0,3%). There is absolutely no doubt, that Lewandowski is an "above average player with above average finishing", which makes this even less likely to happen. Its just far more likely that understat.com is trash, than a top forward under-performing by this margin.
 

TheMagicFoolBus

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I don't know much about xG except its common usage. I might get a few things wrong, so correct my mistakes please.

There isn't one "xG-stat", but multiple xG-models, that are different. Some are just more popular/free to access (eg. understat). xG tells us the likelihood of an average player (what does this mean? whats the data-set?) scoring from a chance (it doesn't take into account the specific player himself, right?). I couldn't find the methodology of understat.com, but some superficial look into some of this stuff leads me to believe, that an "average player" under-performing by -11 is roughly a 3 σ event (~0,3%). There is absolutely no doubt, that Lewandowski is an "above average player with above average finishing", which makes this even less likely to happen. Its just far more likely that understat.com is trash, than a top forward under-performing by this margin.
I mean, the whole point of xG is to point out that the bolded statement is, in fact, not beyond a reasonable doubt. People take away the wrong message from xG all the time though - it's far more valuable to have a striker who gets himself into the best and most efficient positions to score. This is a repeatable and proven skill year over year to a much greater extent than finishing, where there are far too many variables that can be adequately captured by statistical models.

Also, anyone who thinks Harry Kane is better than Lewandowski needs to have their head checked.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I don't know much about xG except its common usage. I might get a few things wrong, so correct my mistakes please.

There isn't one "xG-stat", but multiple xG-models, that are different. Some are just more popular/free to access (eg. understat). xG tells us the likelihood of an average player (what does this mean? whats the data-set?) scoring from a chance (it doesn't take into account the specific player himself, right?). I couldn't find the methodology of understat.com, but some superficial look into some of this stuff leads me to believe, that an "average player" under-performing by -11 is roughly a 3 σ event (~0,3%). There is absolutely no doubt, that Lewandowski is an "above average player with above average finishing", which makes this even less likely to happen. Its just far more likely that understat.com is trash, than a top forward under-performing by this margin.
You sound far too emotionally invested here for any reasonable conversation to take place. I’d recommend that you relax.
 

Pagh Wraith

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I don't know much about xG except its common usage. I might get a few things wrong, so correct my mistakes please.

There isn't one "xG-stat", but multiple xG-models, that are different. Some are just more popular/free to access (eg. understat). xG tells us the likelihood of an average player (what does this mean? whats the data-set?) scoring from a chance (it doesn't take into account the specific player himself, right?). I couldn't find the methodology of understat.com, but some superficial look into some of this stuff leads me to believe, that an "average player" under-performing by -11 is roughly a 3 σ event (~0,3%). There is absolutely no doubt, that Lewandowski is an "above average player with above average finishing", which makes this even less likely to happen. Its just far more likely that understat.com is trash, than a top forward under-performing by this margin.
This video explains everything pretty well:


Understat's model isn't the best (doesn't account for defensive pressure for example) but it's a good starting point.
 

PedroMendez

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This video explains everything pretty well:


Understat's model isn't the best (doesn't account for defensive pressure for example) but it's a good starting point.
its a nice explanation and overall that confirms my superficial understanding. I am not against stats in football or against xG. I think its quite useful and interesting. At the same time one should understand its limitations and understand what "extreme" outliers tell us. The video doesn't tell us the specific details how this is calculated, which would be key to understand what we should make of "-11,14". A quick (random) look at the understats data for top forwards indicate that 11,14 is the biggest deviation I could find, but multiple top forwards (kane, ronaldo, Lacazette, Higuain, Dybala, Benzema, Ibra, Lukaku, Messi) had +-8 years. Thats a problem for the model. That doesn't mean, that long-term trends don't tell us anything. Kane and Messi out-perform xG every year. Anyone who watches them should know they they are outstanding finishers. The model doesn't add much understanding here, but its still correct. Yet these extreme deviations are very likely artefacts or overstate these values due to limitations in the model. Its pointless to use them to make an argument.
 

awop

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Amazing striker, would have loved to see him play for Madrid or in the PL at some point.
 

He'sRaldo

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I'm really skeptical of the Bundesliga's recent quality, but that's impressive regardless.
 

Tostao_80

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One of the best European goalscorers of the last 30 years. In a few weeks, he'll be the 3rd highest goalscorer in Bundesliga history. Might have a chance of top 2 if he plays a few more seasons. In the Champions league/ Euro Cup, he is currently 5th, but has a chance of finishing 3rd behind Leo and Cristiano (Benzema also with a shout) when he finishes his career. Of anyone that has scored 30 or more goals in the competition, he has the 2nd highest goals per game ration among strikers in the last 40 years (behind Ruud).
He has 60 international goals and probably/ should finish in top 10 of all time in that area. His only black mark here is the lack of tournament goals.
He's currently on 453 career goals. 3 to 4 more years and he should be in the mid 500s. He could finish his career as the third highest European goalscorer of all time. Simply incredible.
 

VorZakone

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And yet he hasn't really made a significant impact outside the Bundesliga in the last 5 years. Underwhelming in international tournaments, underwhelming in the CL. He's a domestic league machine, no doubt, but hasn't been able to really do anything noteworthy internationally.

I think the Dortmund-version of him was craftier.
 

Tostao_80

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And yet he hasn't really made a significant impact outside the Bundesliga in the last 5 years. Underwhelming in international tournaments, underwhelming in the CL. He's a domestic league machine, no doubt, but hasn't been able to really do anything noteworthy internationally.

I think the Dortmund-version of him was craftier.
Did you read his CL stats? Or just ignored them completely?
This is from 2 posts ago:
In the Champions league/ Euro Cup, he is currently 5th, but has a chance of finishing 3rd behind Leo and Cristiano (Benzema also with a shout) when he finishes his career. Of anyone that has scored 30 or more goals in the competition, he has the 2nd highest goals per game ration among strikers in the last 40 years (behind Ruud).
Only Leo and Cristiano have more knock out goals than him in the last 20 years.
How on earth has he done nothing noteworthy in the CL? Remember his 4 goal haul against Real? He has been great in the CL.
 

GhastlyHun

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That last one was with Dortmund, so case in point for vorzakone
 

VorZakone

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Did you read his CL stats? Or just ignored them completely?
This is from 2 posts ago:
In the Champions league/ Euro Cup, he is currently 5th, but has a chance of finishing 3rd behind Leo and Cristiano (Benzema also with a shout) when he finishes his career. Of anyone that has scored 30 or more goals in the competition, he has the 2nd highest goals per game ration among strikers in the last 40 years (behind Ruud).
Only Leo and Cristiano have more knock out goals than him in the last 20 years.
How on earth has he done nothing noteworthy in the CL? Remember his 4 goal haul against Real? He has been great in the CL.
That's nice and all but I can't remember a single proper CL big game masterclass from Lewa in the last 5 years. You'd really have to go back to that game against Real in 2013.
 

gibers

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This guy is something else. His scoring rate reminds me of Messi in 111/12 and CRonaldo in the first half of 14/15.