Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Russia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine
Over the past three years, Russia has waged an increasingly brazen campaign of sabotage and subversion against Ukraine’s European allies. In 2024, Moscow significantly escalated its tactics—turning to assassination, compromising water facilities across several European countries, and targeting civil aviation.
Based on an overview of Russian operations in the physical domain, excluding most cyber operations, Leiden University’s research highlights how Moscow is increasingly escalating beyond its long-standing campaigns of espionage and digital disruption. Even using a conservative metric for attribution, Russian operations against Europe have surged from 6 in 2022 to 13 in 2023 and 44 in 2024.
However, Leiden University’s analysis suggests that escalation is more likely to occur below the nuclear threshold—and offers a glimpse of what that might entail: bombings of civilian airlines, sabotage of undersea infrastructure that could leave large portions of Europe without power or internet access, targeted assassinations of key industrial leaders, and attacks on water supplies that could jeopardize the health of hundreds of thousands of Europeans.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/10/russia-is-stepping-up-its-covert-war-beyond-ukraine/
 
As Meduza’s source in the Russian government put it:

"The main emotion is disappointment. We expected the war to end, for the fighting to end. Fatigue has been the main feeling for a long time. We’re already tired of waiting, even. It feels like you’re going deeper and deeper every day. We also expected some kind of lifting of sanctions in exchange for peace. Now, they’re inflicting more and more pain."

 
Really curious what people with more expertise in economics/finance make of this. The report has been cited by the Financial Times too.


https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt



I've scanned through it and don't entirely understand what he means by this "off-budget funding scheme" he keeps mentioning, he may be trying to simplify it for the Lehman.

Preferential rates for certain industries? Sure but the banks banks are paying 20%+ on their loans so being too "preferential" is a path to bankruptcy. Its all one pot at the end of the day though, Russia has its budget, it has its expenditure. It way overspent the budget in 2024 and is funding that deficit through what is basically money-printing and no doubt raiding what's left in the wealth fund. The "defence industry" is the government, so this just sounds like one way of draining cash reserves from private business (the banks), which they need to do, they need to drain the country of everything it has because as we all know, they are fecked.

@prune602 (bsky now) is the best source for all this, she's been covering the funding issues in detail for the last couple years, government bonds, corporate loans etc. Something to note when looking at that chart is that over half of those loans are on variable rates, tied to the ever increasing key rate.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024...kruptcies-as-borrowing-costs-skyrocket-a86981
 
I've scanned through it and don't entirely understand what he means by this "off-budget funding scheme" he keeps mentioning, he may be trying to simplify it for the Lehman.
As I understand the defence industry is taking loans instead of getting paid for their work. And while it is owned by the government this doesn't show up in the state's budget as we are still talking about corporations. So Russia doesn't pay anymore for the weapons it gets (at least partially) which is the off-budget angle.
 
More good stuff incoming: https://www.hartpunkt.de/rct30-ukraine-erhaelt-boxer-radschuetzenpanzer-von-knds-deutschland/

Ukraine now gets the RCH-155 SPG (the most modern SPG in the world) - this was long planned.

But news during the rollout of the first production RCH-155 was that Ukraine will also get the RCT30 IFV (numbers not yet known).

Both are based on the Boxer platform for wheeled armoured vehicles so it makes sense to announce that in this setting.
 
Russia's Gazprom weighs slashing HQ jobs after losing most sales to Europe
Gazprom is considering cutting about 40% of its headquarters staff - more than 1,500 job cuts - as the Russian gas giant grapples with the loss of most of its sales to Europe, state news agency TASS reported on Monday.
Deputy CEO Elena Ilyukhina sent the proposal on job cuts at its central office in St. Petersburg to Gazprom boss Alexei Miller, TASS reported citing a media outlet called 47news.
Gazprom, which employs 498,000 people, according to the company's data, posted a loss of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first since 1999, as it lost most of its lucrative European market due to fallout from the war in Ukraine.
Its European sales were slashed further when Russian gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines crossing Ukraine came to a halt on New Year's Day after Kyiv refused to renew a transit deal.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-plans-cut-staff-central-office-2025-01-13/
 
More good stuff incoming: https://www.hartpunkt.de/rct30-ukraine-erhaelt-boxer-radschuetzenpanzer-von-knds-deutschland/

Ukraine now gets the RCH-155 SPG (the most modern SPG in the world) - this was long planned.

But news during the rollout of the first production RCH-155 was that Ukraine will also get the RCT30 IFV (numbers not yet known).

Both are based on the Boxer platform for wheeled armoured vehicles so it makes sense to announce that in this setting.

What exactly does Modern mean in this context?
 
Means it’s a very new product.

That in itself means nothing though, it's a pretty pointless title to have.

For example - The most "modern" Destroyer right now is probably the Canadian River class destroyer and it would get absolutely torn to pieces by a 1990's Block IIA Arleigh Burke.

Another example - T90M's from the 2020's are losing straight up fights to 1980's M2A2 Bradleys in Ukraine.

I wouldn't use these kind of qualifiers to mean anything.
 
What exactly does Modern mean in this context?
Fully automated gun module, able to shoot while moving (basically next level shoot and scoot) as key features, especially the latter afaik is unique to the RCH-155
 


The head of NATO has admitted that Russia is churning out more in three months than NATO can manage in a whole year. Meanwhile, our beloved NATO cheerleader @AfonsoAlves —whose production predictions are about as reliable as a Magic 8-Ball—is still out there spinning UPOD tales. Time to fess up, champ. The truth’s calling, and it’s not taking voicemails.


On the same topic, another piece critiques the West’s overreliance on precision military capabilities and power projection, arguing that adversaries like Russia and China now outmatch the West in both precision and mass production, leaving NATO ill-prepared for modern high-intensity conflict due to outdated strategies, insufficient industrial capacity, and a misguided focus on economic strength over actual military readiness

https://substack.com/home/post/p-154696213
 


The head of NATO has admitted that Russia is churning out more in three months than NATO can manage in a whole year. Meanwhile, our beloved NATO cheerleader @AfonsoAlves —whose production predictions are about as reliable as a Magic 8-Ball—is still out there spinning UPOD tales. Time to fess up, champ. The truth’s calling, and it’s not taking voicemails.


On the same topic, another piece critiques the West’s overreliance on precision military capabilities and power projection, arguing that adversaries like Russia and China now outmatch the West in both precision and mass production, leaving NATO ill-prepared for modern high-intensity conflict due to outdated strategies, insufficient industrial capacity, and a misguided focus on economic strength over actual military readiness

https://substack.com/home/post/p-154696213

And what is all this superior production doing for them? They are still stuck in eastern Ukraine and are struggling to retake the area they lost in Kursk.
 


The head of NATO has admitted that Russia is churning out more in three months than NATO can manage in a whole year. Meanwhile, our beloved NATO cheerleader @AfonsoAlves —whose production predictions are about as reliable as a Magic 8-Ball—is still out there spinning UPOD tales. Time to fess up, champ. The truth’s calling, and it’s not taking voicemails.


On the same topic, another piece critiques the West’s overreliance on precision military capabilities and power projection, arguing that adversaries like Russia and China now outmatch the West in both precision and mass production, leaving NATO ill-prepared for modern high-intensity conflict due to outdated strategies, insufficient industrial capacity, and a misguided focus on economic strength over actual military readiness

https://substack.com/home/post/p-154696213


He's talking about Artillery Shells you muppet. "Russia is producing more swords than what NATO is producing per year!" Yeah great, now go take the win. Congrats!

DoD alone is buying more missiles by factor of 3-4x than what Russia is building a year.

I literally posted both the DoD FY24 spend and the Russian official procurement numbers as a source, side by side.

Also, what the hell is the substack article talking about.

Western Planes are outdated? Overreliance on F-35? :lol: F-15EX, Block-72, Superbugs, F-22, doesn't exist? What fecking modern planes does Russia have?

NATO lacks mass? US alone has graveyards of equipment and storage just sat there with no demand from the Army to use.
 
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Here's a funny one to support Suedesi's claim .

Russia’s military aircraft production has recovered from a low in 2021 and is set to advance in 2025. Tactical aircraft production fell to about 14 aircraft in 2021 but has bounced back to roughly 3-4 times that number.

Lockheed Martin produces 2-3x more F-35's per year than Russia produces tactical aircraft :lol:
 
Russian sabotage and the risk of airplane diasters became so alarming that the White House sent a message to Putin.

The White House scrambled to get a message to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia last year after U.S. intelligence agencies said a Russian military unit was preparing to send explosive packages on cargo planes.
“The risk of catastrophic error was clear,” Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, said in a recent interview, “that these could catch fire in a fully loaded aircraft.”
To this day the U.S. officials do not know if Mr. Putin ordered the operation, whether he knew about it or whether he only learned of it because of the American warnings.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
 
A reminder that captured territory isn't just meters on a map.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...e-russian-troops-near-sources-say-2025-01-13/

Ukraine has stopped production at its coking coal mine in Pokrovsk, which feeds the country's steel industry, because of the proximity of advancing Russian forces, two industry sources told Reuters on Monday.

Ukraine produced about 3.5 million tons of coke in 2023, according to the national coke association, exclusively using coking coal mined in Pokrovsk.

Its steelmakers' union said last year the potential closure of the mine could cause steel production to slump to between 2 million and 3 million metric tons in 2025 from 7.6 million in 2024.

Steel production has already suffered since Russia's invasion, which has led to the destruction of the country's leading steel plants.

Ukraine, formerly a major steel producer and exporter, reported a 70.7% drop in output in 2022 to 6.3 million tons. It fell to 6 million tons in 2023.
 
Russia progressing to stage 'drain the people's savings' on the path to economic meltdown?

edit: "regime-ending" headline here is a bit of hyperbole obviously, but the story isn't. Rumours are circling, which is enough by itself to stop people depositing in banks. Relevant to the above story on interest rates banks are paying, adds to their bankruptcy risk.

 
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Is this confirmed, that is insane is true?

I can't find anything confirming the Central Bank have actually proposed to confiscate/freeze, it may be just a rumour. Something has caused the state duma to propose that law today however, to give them oversight over the Central Bank on that decision.

Ukraine has shut down a coal mine though! So no doubt that will take priority in all news media.
 
In other economic news:

The 'shadow' oil fleet has effectively shut down, sanctions have took effect. 65 ships are either at anchor or drifting somewhere. Nobody is going to want to let them dock until someone agrees to pay the demurrage.

Multiple oil refineries and other plants/factories were hit overnight in one of the largest drone/missile attacks on Russia yet. Engels hit again right after they put the first fire out. One refinery in Tatarstan hit a few days ago is 1,200km+ from the Ukrainian border. Their capability continues to strengthen...


EU is set to propose another sanction package next week.
 
Airlines industry... They've scrapped plans to replace their civilian fleet with a domestic one, so with that slight problem of foreign built planes and struggles sourcing foreign parts they are instead going to... oh never mind, no alternative proposed. Its not like logistics/transport is important in the largest country in the world or anything.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/...plan-povipusku-grazhdanskih-samoletov-a152292

4 Russian planes have broken down during flights and been forced to land so far this year... Yes, as in the last 14 days, actually this article is from the 11th.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/...viakompanii-slomalsya-vo-vremya-reisa-a152075
 
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So is it happening? A long, cold winter in Russia and eventually Vladimir ends up on a plane to China that "crashes" over Mongolia? How bad do we think it would have to get economically and socially?
 
Airlines industry... They've scrapped plans to replace their civilian fleet with a domestic one, so with that slight problem of foreign built planes and struggles sourcing foreign parts they are instead going to... oh never mind, no alternative proposed. Its not like logistics/transport is important in the largest country in the world or anything.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/...plan-povipusku-grazhdanskih-samoletov-a152292

4 Russian planes have broken down during flights and been forced to land so far this year... Yes, as in the last 14 days, actually this article is from the 11th.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/...viakompanii-slomalsya-vo-vremya-reisa-a152075
Not surprising, seeing how spectacularly the Sukhoi Superjet failed. Between its high rate of breakdowns and the nonexistant spare parts supply base it quickly became apparent that Russia has neither the know-how nor the industrial base to build a good contemporary jet airliner. And that was prior to the Ukraine war and the sanctions it brought.

Pretty much their only option now is buying Comacs from China, and illegally sourcing as many spare parts for their existing Airbus and Boeing aircraft as they can scrounge up while they keep flying with so many systems inoperable that any pilot who likes being alive runs away screaming.
 


The head of NATO has admitted that Russia is churning out more in three months than NATO can manage in a whole year. Meanwhile, our beloved NATO cheerleader @AfonsoAlves —whose production predictions are about as reliable as a Magic 8-Ball—is still out there spinning UPOD tales. Time to fess up, champ. The truth’s calling, and it’s not taking voicemails.


On the same topic, another piece critiques the West’s overreliance on precision military capabilities and power projection, arguing that adversaries like Russia and China now outmatch the West in both precision and mass production, leaving NATO ill-prepared for modern high-intensity conflict due to outdated strategies, insufficient industrial capacity, and a misguided focus on economic strength over actual military readiness

https://substack.com/home/post/p-154696213

He's talking about Artillery Shells you muppet. "Russia is producing more swords than what NATO is producing per year!" Yeah great, now go take the win. Congrats!

DoD alone is buying more missiles by factor of 3-4x than what Russia is building a year.

I literally posted both the DoD FY24 spend and the Russian official procurement numbers as a source, side by side.

Also, what the hell is the substack article talking about.

Western Planes are outdated? Overreliance on F-35? :lol: F-15EX, Block-72, Superbugs, F-22, doesn't exist? What fecking modern planes does Russia have?

NATO lacks mass? US alone has graveyards of equipment and storage just sat there with no demand from the Army to use.
To be fair, it is not clear exactly what Mark Rutte is talking about here.
 
Russia progressing to stage 'drain the people's savings' on the path to economic meltdown?

edit: "regime-ending" headline here is a bit of hyperbole obviously, but the story isn't. Rumours are circling, which is enough by itself to stop people depositing in banks. Relevant to the above story on interest rates banks are paying, adds to their bankruptcy risk.



@harms any substance to that confiscation rumour ?
I doubt it. The video itself says nothing about the suggestion, it’s your usual populist politician bs that tries to make the central bank the bad guy (as if it’s their economic policies that are the problem).

“People are worried that the central bank is going to…” equates to nothing. If they were going to confiscate people’s funds, they wouldn’t be preemptively discussing it in public — and there’s no separation of powers in Russia so they’re not independent of each other, and that decision wouldn’t be taken by the central bank.

That’s not to say that they’re never going to do that — who knows. But at this point talking about it seriously would be significantly misunderstanding what’s happening (and what’s actually been said in the video).
 
I can't find anything confirming the Central Bank have actually proposed to confiscate/freeze, it may be just a rumour. Something has caused the state duma to propose that law today however, to give them oversight over the Central Bank on that decision.

Ukraine has shut down a coal mine though! So no doubt that will take priority in all news media.
It’s not a democracy where one governmental power tries to get another one under control so it doesn’t infringe on people’s rights.

To say that “something caused the state duma to do something” would also be a gross misunderstanding of how it operates. It’s a bunch of clowns that have to simulate activity for the 95% of the time when they don’t vote for the laws that are being passed down on them.
 
Possibility that the Australian captured in Ukraine by Russian forces may have been executed almost immediately. Australia informed Russia to follow international law on captured fighters and supposedly Russia was going to keep us "informed". There's a new suggestion he was probably killed weeks ago now. There will likely be calls for diplomatic expulsion if this pans out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01...ve-russia-killed-soon-after-capture/104819238
 
Crazy that all it takes for the Russian Embassy to be removed is one person being unhappy.
Ambassador and only potentially. If they executed an Australian then the government is bound to react, especially when there is an election this year.
 
Massive missile attack on Ukraine this morning which obviously means Russia is ready for peace talks.
 
Zelensky says almost 900k people serving in Ukraine's military.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 15 that Ukraine's military now comprises 880,000 soldiers, tasked with defending the entire country against 600,000 Russian troops concentrated in specific areas.
"Russian troops are concentrated in several areas, so in some areas, they have a quantitative advantage," he said.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine...-facing-600-000-russian-troops-zelensky-says/