Russian invasion of Ukraine

Alemar

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Assurances that Ukraine cannot join Nato is a no go, that is clear.
It is even more clear that Putin will never let it happen, it is in the “theoretically impossible” section of options. Having NATO nuclear rockets 1km off Russian border is not a possibility, everyone who is mentally healthy should understand that.

That’s actually the only issue of relevance in this entire conflict - Ukraine per se is not at all important for Putin. Just a no-NATO buffer zone - and this is fair enough.
 

Withnail

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Well… immediate launch of Nord Stream 2. Cancellation of a certain part of previously imposed sanctions. Guarantees of Ukraine to be never accepted to NATO… something positive for Putin, something that he immediately receives in form of clear value (rather than threats).

it’s more than likely such approach would work miles better
So we should reward lunatic heads of state for their threats of aggression against their neighbours, to the detriment of said neighbours.

How exactly is that approach better?
 

The Firestarter

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That’s actually the only issue of relevance in this entire conflict - Ukraine per se is not at all important for Putin. Just a no-NATO buffer zone - and this is fair enough.
Ridiculous. Only two days ago Putin ranted on TV how Ukraine was never a sovereign state and was created by Lenin. Its clear that future nato membership is actually just the pretext for what he wants.
 

Gehrman

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It's a bit simplistic to call that "trying to join Hitler", IMO. There is much to disagree with when it comes to Soviet foreign policy in the lead-up to WW2 (how they participated in dismantling Poland, for example), but it's fairly complicated all the same. Don't forget that the Soviets were already, rightly or wrongly, skeptical of Western intentions, due to the foreign interventions against the Bolsheviks in the Russian Civil War. Then the Soviets watched the West sell out Czechoslovakia in Munich, when, at least on the surface, Stalin offered "a million men" to defend them against Germany (this should be taken with a grain of salt, since that also means a million men in Poland). If they were so quick to sell out their democratic ally to the Nazis, what would they do to help the communist Soviet Union, whom (as far as the Soviets were concerned) they had already tried to destroy two decades earlier?

That doesn't excuse the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact or any further discussions, but context is everything.
I would that looking to become the 4th axis power is joining Hitler. Even with context and nuance
 

spiriticon

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It is even more clear that Putin will never let it happen, it is in the “theoretically impossible” section of options. Having NATO nuclear rockets 1km off Russian border is not a possibility, everyone who is mentally healthy should understand that.

That’s actually the only issue of relevance in this entire conflict - Ukraine per se is not at all important for Putin. Just a no-NATO buffer zone - and this is fair enough.
But the Ukrainians want to join Nato of their own decision. Sure we can bow to Putin and feck the Ukranians over, no problem. But what next though? What if he wants the Baltic states or Poland to relinquish NATO membership? Is that when we go to war again? Give in again?
 

Alemar

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Is that when we go to war again? Give in again?
But you now want Putin to give in as a viable solution, however :)

That’s where carrot and a stick policy comes into play - make certain diplomatic concessions in order to receive bigger concessions from your counterpart. But how could you expect concessions from Putin if you don’t give him anything in return? He won’t even be able to save face at home if he doesn’t get anything while
ceding to demands
 

Varun

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Please stick to the topic on hand.

Start a new thread if you guys want to discuss the left right hitler stalin history.
 

Simbo

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It is even more clear that Putin will never let it happen, it is in the “theoretically impossible” section of options. Having NATO nuclear rockets 1km off Russian border is not a possibility, everyone who is mentally healthy should understand that.

That’s actually the only issue of relevance in this entire conflict - Ukraine per se is not at all important for Putin. Just a no-NATO buffer zone - and this is fair enough.
Sorry mate, you've got some reading to do, guessing your only just trying to find out whats going on. Don't think anyone actually following this still think it has anythign to do with NATO and anyone who thinks NATO nuclear rockets will ever be placed 1km of Russian border, under any hyperthetical scenario, are probably the ones that need their mental health checking.
 

Andycoleno9

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He doesn't want to talk. There's not even a chance to offer him something feasible. Assurances that Ukraine cannot join Nato is a no go, that is clear. Then Putin invaded straightway. There is no talk, only action.
Mine problem with this thread is that you must go with a flow. It is like RAWK's thread about Klopp. Here you must say Putin evil, damn Russia etc...if you say something different; you are Putin lover.
There is no geopolitical situation which is black or white. World is not Tolkiens world where you have pure evil (Mordor) and pure good (Elves). Russia have their demands because they feel threatened by NATO. They wanted Nato troops out from Nato countries and THAT demand is a no go, of course. But why would assurance from NATO that Ukraine will not join NATO, be a no go? Maaaaybe, just maybe that would have been good diplomatic starting point.
 

spiriticon

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But you now want Putin to give in as a viable solution, however :)

That’s where carrot and a stick policy comes into play - make certain diplomatic concessions in order to receive bigger concessions from your counterpart. But how could you expect concessions from Putin if you don’t give him anything in return? He won’t even be able to save face at home if he doesn’t get anything while
ceding to demands
He doesn't want to talk! We don't even have a chance to offer a carrot. If he wants to talk he would have delayed his invasion.

Everybody's asking him to talk but all he's doing is marching his soldiers into Ukraine.
 

The Firestarter

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Also @Alemar did your brain short circuit and forget that the Baltics are already part of nato, so they can have nukes inside "meters" from the border if nato so wishes? Did you also forget that it's not 1963 and with the current SLBMs it doesn't really matter any more on what land mass you put missiles?
 

Alemar

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Everybody's asking him to talk but all he's doing is marching his soldiers into Ukraine.
He doesn’t want to talk because no one OFFERS ANYTHING. During each talk all that is being said is “there will be new sanctions” and nothing else. There is no “carrot”, so Putin is simply fed up with threats of more stick
 

spiriticon

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He doesn’t want to talk because no one OFFERS ANYTHING. During each talk all that is being said is “there will be new sanctions” and nothing else. There is no “carrot”, so Putin is simply fed up with threats of more stick
You need to be at the table to offer. What do you want the Western leaders to do? Offer state secret concessions live on TV?
 

The Firestarter

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He doesn’t want to talk because no one OFFERS ANYTHING. During each talk all that is being said is “there will be new sanctions” and nothing else. There is no “carrot”, so Putin is simply fed up with threats of more stick
No, again wrong. There was a carrot - removing all sanctions, if he returns Crimea and Donbas.
 

Scarlett Dracarys

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He doesn’t want to talk because no one OFFERS ANYTHING. During each talk all that is being said is “there will be new sanctions” and nothing else. There is no “carrot”, so Putin is simply fed up with threats of more stick
Why do they need to offer him anything? It's simple stay the feck out of Ukraine.
 

TheLiverBird

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Essentially all that’s going too happen from here on is basically news coverage of further sanctions (which Putin doesn’t care about) and the bloody end too Ukraine.

Certainly sucks for Ukraine but that is basically the gist of it.
 

Withnail

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But you now want Putin to give in as a viable solution, however :)

That’s where carrot and a stick policy comes into play - make certain diplomatic concessions in order to receive bigger concessions from your counterpart. But how could you expect concessions from Putin if you don’t give him anything in return? He won’t even be able to save face at home if he doesn’t get anything while
ceding to demands
You're talking about this as if it's a trade deal. You don't reward acts of aggression or threats of war.
 

Mciahel Goodman

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Russia have their demands because they feel threatened by NATO. They wanted Nato troops out from Nato countries and THAT demand is a no go, of course.
The point of that Friedman article was essentially that it doesn't matter (for Putin) if NATO is perceived as a genuine threat, what matters is that its expansion allows him to frame it that way in very genuine terms. So even the most opportunist expansion can be justified in these terms (as could the legitimate, from the Russian perspective, concern of NATO expansion). That is the blunder which Friedman and the rest are pointing to regarding the missed opportunity of the 90s.
 

harms

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Found it weirdly entertaining — I don’t think that any of those brands that aren’t in oil or gas industry business work outside of Russia and surely it’s kind of hard to boycott Russian supermarkets, banks and communication companies, well, from outside of Russia? You can kinda try to make a case for boycotting Gasprom but even then it’s not about not using gas, it’s about making sure that your government don’t work with them…

But if it gets the likes… or is he actually making fun of this?
 

buchansleftleg

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I really don't get why Putin found it necessary to humiliate the head of a Russian intelligence agency. You'd think he doesn't wanna create resentment among the powerful people surrounding him.

English subs:

This is a public display of power to highlight his "invincibility" in the eyes of the Russian People. It's a move straight out of the Saddam Hussein playbook. Look at the video of his purge from 1979. What you can't clearly pick up is that in one corner of his desk is a pistol, that at points he went to reach for and at other points he started cleaning a pistol during this meeting. Putin is trying to quell any thoughts of being replaced and is dipping everyone's hands in the blood.

This has been planned for a long time and he is not going to stop at the "independent" territory borders. I think he has actually gone more than a little insane and is struggling to stay relevant as the west's dependence on gas is already past it's peak.
 

Alemar

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You need to be at the table to offer. What do you want the Western leaders to do? Offer state secret concessions live on TV?
But there are ministries of international affairs in every country. If there is an offer to discuss, convey it via a Secretary of State to Putin’s respective minister - but Mr. Blinken, on the contrary, declared that tomorrow’s meeting with Mr Lavrov is now cancelled by the USA.
 

spiriticon

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But there are ministries of international affairs in every country. If there is an offer to discuss, convey it via a Secretary of State to Putin’s respective minister - but Mr. Blinken, on the contrary, declared that tomorrow’s meeting with Mr Lavrov is now cancelled by the USA.
Yeah because he invaded. That meeting was set up on the proviso he does not invade. He has done, so the sanctions come.

Look, I think the fastrack of Nord Stream 2 is a good idea, although Germany needs to be less reliant on Russia in the long term. We can discuss removing existing sanctions. We need to ask Putin what he would be willing to accept that does not involve Ukraine and Nato. But we need him to reverse his armies and come to the table.
 

Natener

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can anyone tell me what Putin wants from Ukraine or is it more nuanced than that?
My vague understanding is that Putin regards Ukraine or at least the Donbas area as part of Russia more so than any other states that broke off after the Soviet Union's collapse. Why so I'm not sure. The other big reason is Putin considers NATO as the big threat to Russia and Ukraine trying to align themselves to NATO would give the west the geological platform to basically place their 'guns'. It's a threat to Russian sovereignty, Ukraine is that buffer between the West and Russia and he wants that buffer in his control. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.
 

Mickeza

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But there are ministries of international affairs in every country. If there is an offer to discuss, convey it via a Secretary of State to Putin’s respective minister - but Mr. Blinken, on the contrary, declared that tomorrow’s meeting with Mr Lavrov is now cancelled by the USA.
I wonder why it’s been cancelled. What could possibly have happened in the last 48 hours for that to occur…tricky one.
 

Revan

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My vague understanding is that Putin regards Ukraine or at least the Donbas area as part of Russia more so than any other states that broke off after the Soviet Union's collapse. Why so I'm not sure. The other big reason is Putin considers NATO as the big threat to Russia and Ukraine trying to align themselves to NATO would give the west the geological platform to basically place their 'guns'. It's a threat to Russian sovereignty, Ukraine is that buffer between the West and Russia and he wants that buffer in his control. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.
That’s more what Putin apologists say.

What Putin himself said in that crazy speech: Ukraine is not a sovereign country and it is an artificial creation done by Bolsheviks. It was always a Russian land and despite that we helped them, they turned the back on us. So now is the time for payback.
 

Alemar

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Or risk a war I guess. Once Nato decides enough is enough I guess its the bomb shelters for all of us.
Russian army is stronger than NATO European forces (unless USA army joins, of course, and USA won’t join as it will lead to a nuclear war with guaranteed destruction of all the parties involved).

So it probably is not a big threat for Putin.
 

Fearless

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Russian army is stronger than NATO European forces (unless USA army joins, of course, and USA won’t join as it will lead to a nuclear war with guaranteed destruction of all the parties involved).

So it probably is not a big threat for Putin.
Exactly. It's like coming to a knife fight with....sanctions.
 

spiriticon

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Russian army is stronger than NATO European forces (unless USA army joins, of course, and USA won’t join as it will lead to a nuclear war with guaranteed destruction of all the parties involved).

So it probably is not a big threat for Putin.
If its WW3 the US will join. They love flexing their muscles.

We'll have Russian nukes and US nukes, Iran nukes...it will be fan fecking tastic for everyone.
 

The Firestarter

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Russian army is stronger than NATO European forces (unless USA army joins, of course, and USA won’t join as it will lead to a nuclear war with guaranteed destruction of all the parties involved).

So it probably is not a big threat for Putin.
:lol:
 

Andycoleno9

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My vague understanding is that Putin regards Ukraine or at least the Donbas area as part of Russia more so than any other states that broke off after the Soviet Union's collapse. Why so I'm not sure. The other big reason is Putin considers NATO as the big threat to Russia and Ukraine trying to align themselves to NATO would give the west the geological platform to basically place their 'guns'. It's a threat to Russian sovereignty, Ukraine is that buffer between the West and Russia and he wants that buffer in his control. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.
History teach us how easy is to get casus belli for the war. Everything what Russia is doing now (false flag attacks for example), Ukraine can do when they join Nato (to get Crimea back). That is not just some Putin's BS, that is legitimate fear. Too much tensions are between Ukraine and Russia. With NATO with them, Ukraine would become serious threat to Russia.
 

Smores

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I wouldn't be too surprised if we end up in the situation of stalled NATO membership with a defensive pact made instead. In effect no NATO positions in Ukraine which Russia can claim as a win and security for Ukraine which would be a win for Zelenskyy.

Can't imagine the disputed (invaded) territories would be returned.
 

Andycoleno9

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If its WW3 the US will join. They love flexing their muscles.

We'll have Russian nukes and US nukes, Iran nukes...it will be fan fecking tastic for everyone.
IF (and it will not) WW3 starts, all alliances are in question and new one would be created. When real shit starts, everybody look what is primary in their interest.
 

The Firestarter

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I wouldn't be too surprised if we end up in the situation of stalled NATO membership with a defensive pact made instead. In effect no NATO positions in Ukraine which Russia can claim as a win and security for Ukraine which would be a win for Zelenskyy.

Can't imagine the disputed (invaded) territories would be returned.
Not under Putin, but if someone less batshit succeeds him, they might. Not Crimea though, that would take unreal carrots to do so.