Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

the hea

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Lets assume the russians have changed tactic and instead of missiles and drones they go for bomber planes, how would that play out? How is their fleet of bombers and how would Ukraine respond in terms of anti-air and/or fighter jets?
It's not a change of tactics, the majority of the cruise missiles they use are air launched KH-101 missiles. They usually launch them from TU-160 and TU-95 bombers flying over the Caspian sea, this is something they have been doing since the begining of the war

Here is a TU-95 bomber carrying 8 KH-101 cruise missiles.
 

Van Piorsing

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Dafaq ? Solvyev looks like he's lost tons of weight in the past week or two.
He does look like less bloated version of Steven Seagal there.

When he screams in the studio during solo speech he looks like choked Jabba though.
 

Simbo

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Lets assume the russians have changed tactic and instead of missiles and drones they go for bomber planes, how would that play out? How is their fleet of bombers and how would Ukraine respond in terms of anti-air and/or fighter jets?
They have used them already over Mariupol in the early days, the Theatre and maternity hospital bombings come to mind. They haven't risked them over Ukraine since, everywhere else has too much air-defence. They have instead been used to launch stand-off missiles from inside Russia.
 

The United

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It seems like the southern defense lines at Bakhmut were broken at some places and under heavy pressures in others. I think Bakhmut could fail in a few weeks unless URK reinforce there heavily.
 

Simbo

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It seems like the southern defense lines at Bakhmut were broken at some places and under heavy pressures in others. I think Bakhmut could fail in a few weeks unless URK reinforce there heavily.
The town is evacuated isn’t it? Just being used as a meat grinder.
 

The United

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The town is evacuated isn’t it? Just being used as a meat grinder.
In the grand scheme of things though, I'm concerned that the UKR may not have many tricks left in the war and most battles will have to be frontal assaults for both sides. Therefore, it is a concern that Russian forces will be able to capture a well-defended city at this stage of the war (if we are banking on the UKR to gain ground quickly in the next few months). Even with their resources depleted, the Russians may be able to stay in this situation for much longer than the UKR.
 

frostbite

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In the grand scheme of things though, I'm concerned that the UKR may not have many tricks left in the war and most battles will have to be frontal assaults for both sides. Therefore, it is a concern that Russian forces will be able to capture a well-defended city at this stage of the war (if we are banking on the UKR to gain ground quickly in the next few months). Even with their resources depleted, the Russians may be able to stay in this situation for much longer than the UKR.

Ukraine has been asking the West for F-16s since March. I don't know why the West does not help them create a capable air force.
 

The United

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Ukraine has been asking the West for F-16s since March. I don't know why the West does not help them create a capable air force.
Forget about F-16s for now. They need a lot more artillery ammunition, and these battles will be decided by that, and the Russians seem to still have the upper hand here even at this stage of the war. which is a concern, of course.

And, according to the New York Times, because some countries in the west thought artillery wars were a thing of the past, they didn't have a lot of stock... and it takes time to produce new batches.
 

TwoSheds

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In the grand scheme of things though, I'm concerned that the UKR may not have many tricks left in the war and most battles will have to be frontal assaults for both sides. Therefore, it is a concern that Russian forces will be able to capture a well-defended city at this stage of the war (if we are banking on the UKR to gain ground quickly in the next few months). Even with their resources depleted, the Russians may be able to stay in this situation for much longer than the UKR.
Depends if there is a tactical advantage to trading off a loss there for a win elsewhere I suppose. Quite hard to break through the enemy lines if you don't choose where to concentrate your forces I would assume. Could be that as long as the Russians are losing more men than the Ukrainians in Bakhmut then they're ok with slowly ceding ground there.
 

The United

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Depends if there is a tactical advantage to trading off a loss there for a win elsewhere I suppose. Quite hard to break through the enemy lines if you don't choose where to concentrate your forces I would assume. Could be that as long as the Russians are losing more men than the Ukrainians in Bakhmut then they're ok with slowly ceding ground there.
I am sure that's what UKR has been doing there for all these months. But as I said, there are a few other places as well where Russians seem to have the upper hand with their frontal assaults and are gaining some ground. The thing is though once you give up grounds which are well-defended, it would be harder to retake.

I was hoping that the Russian north-east front line would have collapsed by now. Didn't happen. Ultimately, though, the UKR probably wants to keep their men alive as much as possible which is the right thing to do. However, who knows how long the West will keep supplying an adequate amount of weapons for them to take their time? And the further east they push the Russians, the safer some of their major cities will be from artillery fire at least.
 

TwoSheds

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I am sure that's what UKR has been doing there for all these months. But as I said, there are a few other places as well where Russians seem to have the upper hand with their frontal assaults and are gaining some ground. The thing is though once you give up grounds which are well-defended, it would be harder to retake.

I was hoping that the Russian north-east front line would have collapsed by now. Didn't happen. Ultimately, though, the UKR probably wants to keep their men alive as much as possible which is the right thing to do. However, who knows how long the West will keep supplying an adequate amount of weapons for them to take their time? And the further east they push the Russians, the safer some of their major cities will be from artillery fire at least.
The Russians advancing and being overstretched can also prove to be an advantage to Ukraine, as it already has many times in this war already. Not sure it's worth worrying about too much just yet. We must just hope they know what they are doing. It seems the Western countries are still pretty united other than a bit of posturing here and there. There's no chance of it going back to business as usual with Russia any time soon, and even with their large population and massive arsenal they can't fight such a punishing war forever.
 

Raoul

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Wagner guys not very happy. One wonders exactly what the hell is going on behind the scenes.

 

Raoul

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It seems like the southern defense lines at Bakhmut were broken at some places and under heavy pressures in others. I think Bakhmut could fail in a few weeks unless URK reinforce there heavily.
To what advantage though ? The Ukrainians have been moving the Russians back in nearly every area, so getting pushed back in one won't exactly be a game changer for the Russians.
 

ShoePolish

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In the grand scheme of things though, I'm concerned that the UKR may not have many tricks left in the war and most battles will have to be frontal assaults for both sides. Therefore, it is a concern that Russian forces will be able to capture a well-defended city at this stage of the war (if we are banking on the UKR to gain ground quickly in the next few months). Even with their resources depleted, the Russians may be able to stay in this situation for much longer than the UKR.
While concerning, hardly surprising. While Kherson held for russians, Wagner group around Bakhmut was reinforced with mobilised/ex convicts. Now that Kherson fell, they sent their trained troops there. Also building defensive lines everywhere, means they can afford less men to sit in defense and shift elsewhere.
They should be able to overwhelm few advancements now, but wont start getting back everything Ukraine retook.
 

4bars

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Like after the defeat in kiev, the more silence in the war news cycle the more i am afraid that the UA is losing this period of the war. Hopefully is not much and they can push back again
 

Simbo

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In the grand scheme of things though, I'm concerned that the UKR may not have many tricks left in the war and most battles will have to be frontal assaults for both sides. Therefore, it is a concern that Russian forces will be able to capture a well-defended city at this stage of the war (if we are banking on the UKR to gain ground quickly in the next few months). Even with their resources depleted, the Russians may be able to stay in this situation for much longer than the UKR.
The UKR strategy is generally the attrition of Russian Forces, while protecting their own and their people as much as possible. With that in mind I doubt they are too concerned with giving up an already destroyed & evacuated town, I'm not either. Wouldn't be the first time they gave up a town to take the entire region not long after.
 

harms

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Wagner guys not very happy. One wonders exactly what the hell is going on behind the scenes.

It's not a Wagner guy. It's one of the vory, at least it seems that way from his introduction.

For them any collaboration with the enforcement groups or the government is frowned upon to say the least — just as it is a taboo to provide sexual services to other inmates (which puts you in the detestable category that you can't get away from, regardless of the circumstances that forced you to do it). So it's not a surprise that they'll be against Prigozhin and what he's doing now — individually & as a head of the Wagner group.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Russia now resorting to outright cheap terrorism now. Fecking disgusting.

An Ukrainian worker at the Madrid embassy has been injured by the blast from that bomb letter.
 

The United

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I think many people said that the city is not exactly important even if it gets captured because the Russian troops are wasting their combat capabilities there for insignificant gains for them.

In that sense, though, the way I see it is that it is useless for the Russians to get it, but it is useful for the UKR forces to hold it for as long as they can or even not lose it at all if this battle is giving the UKR forces a huge advantage.

There is a reason why the UKR forces are defending there with huge losses on their side; losing that city would make the war a bit unpredictable in that region and beyond because the UKR forces know exactly how to defend there and who knows where the Russians troops will go after that. Will the UKR be able to defend like this in other towns? And, also to retake every Russian-captured village or town, the UKR forces had to fight (almost always) massive battles across the entire front line. I think it would be vital for the UKR forces to not lose any more ground, especially at this stage of the war, considering how everything should be favoring (or supposed to) the UKR forces. Well, if we think or want that the war should be ended soon with UKR having advantage.
 
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