Russian invasion of Ukraine

Danny1982

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This needs to be made explicitly clear: just because your mother tongue is Russian does not mean you necessarily identify as Russian.
The picture become even more prominent when we actually stretch that to political inclinations. For example, here is how the election map looked like in the last election in Ukraine before the protesters in Kiev entered the parliament building in 2014 and toppled his government.

Besides, even if we leave out the identity bit, you're still not gonna look favorably towards a government that bans you native language, are you?

 

VorZakone

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The picture become even more prominent when we actually stretch that to political inclinations. For example, here is how the election map looked like in the last election in Ukraine before the protesters in Kiev entered the parliament building in 2014 and toppled his government.

Besides, even if we leave out the identity bit, you're still not gonna look favorably towards a government that bans you native language, are you?

Damn. Doesn't this show a clear divide between West and East?
 

owlo

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That's a good point actually. If the best hackers from each Western country can target key military or economic networks in Russia, it would surely make life hell for them.

They are doing it to Ukraine after all.

I'm sure Russia's cyber security is good, but surely not good enough to repel cyber attacks from the rest of the world at the same time.
No, but it would result in horizontal escalation. Russia are very careful not to unleash such hell on the US and Western Europe etc. It'd be a case of 'we can both absolutely cripple and feck each other up, and the only people who would suffer would be our citizens, reducing our power/control over them.'

Stuff like cutting undersea cables, destroying pipelines, shutting down banks and power plants is mostly just media hype. It's just a different type of MAD.
 

nimic

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The picture become even more prominent when we actually stretch that to political inclinations. For example, here is how the election map looked like in the last election in Ukraine before the protesters in Kiev entered the parliament building in 2014 and toppled his government.

Besides, even if we leave out the identity bit, you're still not gonna look favorably towards a government that bans you native language, are you?

When did they ban Russian language?
 

spiriticon

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No, but it would result in horizontal escalation. Russia are very careful not to unleash such hell on the US and Western Europe etc. It'd be a case of 'we can both absolutely cripple and feck each other up, and the only people who would suffer would be our citizens, reducing our power/control over them.'

Stuff like cutting undersea cables, destroying pipelines, shutting down banks and power plants is mostly just media hype. It's just a different type of MAD.
The great thing about cyber stuff is that everybody can absolutely deny any official involvement in this, so there is no obvious target for them. Kinda like what Moscow is doing right now really.
 

nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
Also: preferring a certain political candidate a decade ago does not equal approving of a Russian invasion of your country. That should be clear.
 

owlo

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@Danny1982 Nice map. Worth adding to it that since Crimea, Ukranian national sentiment has risen quite a bit in cities like Odessa. Not sure how that affects the overall picture though.
 

Water Melon

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Really??

I can’t see that Happening, that’ll open Pandora’s box, that’s essentially NATO getting directly involved in the conflict if that were to happen.

That would be huge
NATO are probably helping with air defense radars to help monitor airspace.
 

Raoul

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The picture become even more prominent when we actually stretch that to political inclinations. For example, here is how the election map looked like in the last election in Ukraine before the protesters in Kiev entered the parliament building in 2014 and toppled his government.

Besides, even if we leave out the identity bit, you're still not gonna look favorably towards a government that bans you native language, are you?

Not sure what bringing up the 2014 revolution has to do with the present given that they've had multiple democratic elections (all internationally recognized as free and fair) since then. Putin also tried to foment takeovers in various other cities in 2014 (Kharkiv and Odessa), both of which were repelled by the locals - all Russian speakers. Therefore this idea that they will capitulate to Russian forces and wave Russian flags as troops enter their cities is about as far off the mark as one can get. There are thousands of Ukrainian troops from the south waiting to fight the Russians as we speak.
 

BlueHaze

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Imagine if this turns into a full scale world war. Because Putin thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia.... Human race has fecked this planet over.

It's mental how a few men decide how many millions of people will die..
 

spiriticon

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Alright lads we are really doing this it seems. Buckle in and hope the madness doesn't overspill out of Eastern Europe. I thank feck the UK is an island for now.
 

Raoul

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Imagine if this turns into a full scale world war. Because Putin thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia.... Human race has fecked this planet over.

It's mental how a few men decide how many millions of people will die..
It very well could since Putin seems increasingly unhinged. Just thank your lucky stars that Trump is gone and the west are generally galvanized as one.
 

Pogue Mahone

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So a friend of mine was out with a Russian colleague a couple of nights back and apparently there’s a lot of credible rumours that Putin is seriously unwell with a possibly terminal illness. He sees this as his last big hurrah. Securing his legacy as the man who reunited the old Russian empire. Sound plausible?
 

VorZakone

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More reputable outlets are now also confirming the latest reports on their websites.

The Guardian can confirm that the warning of an imminent attack has gone out to Ukraine and allies and that the UK shared the US assessment.

Diplomats I have been talking to are aware the west has cried wolf once before, on 16 February, so there are caveats.

There was also a scare last night, when some intelligence suggested an all-out attack was about to happen but it turned out to be a false alarm.

The bottom line is there are large Russian formations on the move, so the assessment is that an onslaught could be unleashed at any time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...rope-sanctions-russian-invasion-border-troops
 

Danny1982

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Not sure what bringing up the 2014 revolution has to do with the present given that they've had multiple democratic elections (all internationally recognized as free and fair) since then. Putin also tried to foment takeovers in various other cities in 2014 (Kharkiv and Odessa), both of which were repelled by the locals - all Russian speakers. Therefore this idea that they will capitulate to Russian forces and wave Russian flags as troops enter their cities is about as far off the mark as one can get. There are thousands of Ukrainian troops from the south waiting to fight the Russians as we speak.
I guess we could just leave it there as we might see the events unfold in the coming days before our eyes. And by the way, I'm not talking here about how much resistance the Ukranian army stationed there will show in the event of an invasion, I'm talking about the perspective of having long-term local resistance if Russia controlled these areas. In my opinion you need a powerful anti-Russia sentiment with a considerable majority to be able organize effective resistance, which is far from the reality on the ground in these areas, in my opinion.
 

Cardboard elk

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Alright lads we are really doing this it seems. Buckle in and hope the madness doesn't overspill out of Eastern Europe. I thank feck the UK is an island for now.
Yes, I can understand that thought. However, the economical consequences will cross all borders. Already energy crisis in northern europe, I guess the electricity bill will be even bigger and prices and availability for many goods will be worse off. With the inflation and everything this is a perfect storm. Great to "leave" the pandemic and instantly this crap happens! Russia has made itself self-reliant on food, energy etc, it seems Putin has planned this for a long time. I believe we are in for a long period of both hot and cold war, I hope not but things are not looking so well.
 

The Firestarter

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So a friend of mine was out with a Russian colleague a couple of nights back and apparently there’s a lot of credible rumours that Putin is seriously unwell with a possibly terminal illness. He sees this as his last big hurrah. Securing his legacy as the man who reunited the old Russian empire. Sound plausible?
There have been multiple rumours over the years, cant really say how credible they are. But, it's one of the scariest possibilities because he might want to literally go out with a bang.
 

owlo

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More reputable outlets are now also confirming the latest reports on their websites.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...rope-sanctions-russian-invasion-border-troops
My consistent take, which I understand is now not particularly popular, is that he still doesn't have the troops for a full invasion, and this isn't what a full invasion would look like. I specified 3 things a few weeks ago for Harms to look for which would probably signal one, and to my understanding none have happened yet.
 

VorZakone

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I haven't been keeping up with this at all. Is it a big deal or is he just Putin on a show?
This is as serious as it gets. All of the West is pretty much united on this, and there's a massive amount of troops & equipment basically ready to move according to the latest reports.
 

VorZakone

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My consistent take, which I understand is now not particularly popular, is that he still doesn't have the troops for a full invasion, and this isn't what a full invasion would look like. I specified 3 things a few weeks ago for Harms to look for which would probably signal one, and to my understanding none have happened yet.
I'm curious, what are these 3 things?