Israel isn't Ukraine in this situation, but I see what you mean.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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This makes sense. So fighter jets in 6 months then
Yes, living under constant threat of missile attacks. Surely would be for different reasons and yes, Ukraine is much bigger and the Russian missiles much more capable, but the basic idea is the same.
Meanwhile (but probably a bit offtopic) the integration of the Dutch Army into the German is ongoing and increasing: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...erge-land-combat-units-with-germany-this-year
This is in so far relevant to Ukraine as for example the shared Patriot battalion is currently in Slovakia and allowed Slovakia to give their S-300 to Ukraine (quite early in the war). Obviously people seem to be content how this cooperation goes and further cooperation might also yield some synergies that could free stuff to be delivered to Ukraine? No idea, just a hope.
Might be. For now the now confirmed delivery of the GLSDB for the M142/M270 is the next important capability increase for Ukraine. Looking at its longer range (150km instead of 90km, effectively enabling hits roughly 130km instead of 70km deep into Russian territory) it will push back Russian logistics bases much deeper and will quite effectively lower the amount of supplies the Russians can bring to the front line (assuming they keep using the same number of trucks as they currently do, and an increase seems difficult considering the old garbage they already have to use).This makes sense. So fighter jets in 6 months then
If supplied in sufficient numbers the GLSDB should have a similar effect on the battlefield as the GMLRS originally had. Still missing is the ATACMS but hopefully that will finally follow soon.
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If that number is true, it kind of aligns with what the "Western" intelligence estimated about their causality figure at 180,000. Over 300,000 is not a small amount and It can only grow in a few weeks when they start their major offensives. You hope the UA has enough equipment to hold the lines for awhile.
If that happened Putin would be removed and new Russian leadership would realize it could not regain the territory so it wouldn't look to continue an unwinnable war started by the now humiliated/dead Putin.
If it did then the black sea is unusable for Russian shipping as the anti ship missile Ukraine would place in Crimea plus the aircraft based there would be able to sink Russian ships at will.
I am sorry but no. You can't compare Hamas attack capabilities with Russian attack capabilities, range and power and all the resources behind. simply not
Sure, this hipotetical situation could last till putin dies as excuse...but still, Ukraine could be under serious fire for more than a decade even winning the war
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Has this come as a surprise or something?
Didn't they conscript 300,000 men a few months ago?
I found 2 Italian youtube channels who go in pretty detail about what's going on in Ukraine. Their names are Parabellum and Ivan Grieco. Basically
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
What Russia is running low on is hardware, they still have plenty of software and can draft lots more. Just to serve as bullet sponges, but they can have an effect if they're many enough. They have lost thousands of vehicles and are digging deep to come up with replacements.
Talks about a major offensive on 24th of this month.
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Celebrating a defeat of occupying forces in WW2 as a means to rally domestic support for their own occupying forces in Ukraine all the while calling Ukrainians nazis.
There's so much irony in all this its mental.
There's so much irony in all this its mental.
Any chance that if this wasn’t Russia, it was a mercenary operation at the behest of a person or organisation that stood to gain a lot of money from inflating oil prices further?
Technically for sure. I know that many media made it look like this was some kind of super complicated operation that could only be performed by sinister secret services with access to amazing technology, but in fact a relatively small boat and two or three experienced divers are all you actually need in that area of the Baltic Sea. Keep in mind it is more like an oversized lake than a true sea.
Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?
. 100+ modern MBT's plus all the Bradley, Marder, Stryker, etc etc, are going to arrive in the first wave. Expected to be at the end of next month. What the feck is that going to be too late for? Russia has gained literally nothing in the last 6 months of their offensives, unless you count the tiny village of Soledar as some sort of gain.
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Biden admin fecked up big time by not providing everything Ukraine needed when they were on the offensive, allowing Russia to mobilize and regroup. These slow and planned deliveries are doing no good. This could have been wrapped up ages ago now if the admin was more decisive, instead it’s prolonging this suffering.
Yes, it is a worry.
They may have twice as many men than they did in the invasion but they don't have twice as many rockets, artillery shells, armored vehicles and trucks as they had.
Russia isn't finished yet and still has moves it can make but western armies count firepower not manpower.
Its common for Italians to give non Italian names. Not everyone in Italy is called Vito, Giovanni and Pietro. Ivan Grieco is the youtube channel owner and he tend to invite experts such as general Paolo Capitini who even served in the NATO and Mirco Campochiari who is an expert in military history. I believe that the latter has strong Polish origins (mother I think). He took some Italian Z sympathisers for some wild accusations thrown towards his direction (the usual neo nazi argument) and is planning to send any proceedings to Ukrainian NGOs to piss them offEveryone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russian alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?
The Bradley and the Marders are not MBTs. The Challenger 2, the Leopards and the Abrams are. The Leopards are set to be functional in maybe 3 months time (the earliest) due to logistics and training. The latter might even take a year. Also note that out of the 341 tanks, 99 of them are T74s from Morocco and another 30 are T72 from Poland
Check the video on 2:22
Russia are also running very low on tanks, hence why they're bringing over ww2 tanks. It's ultimately a stalemate right now, although Russia are far more willing to throw their soldiers into suicide missions.
When the Russian army will run out of functioning armored vehicles while Ukraine will receive the new MBTs, what will the former do next? Throwing their troops with suicide vests at tanks like the Imperial Japanese Army at Khalkhin Gol (think of the 2011 Korean movie titled My Way)? Just crazy to even think about it.
I've never heard of this guy, but I don't think he's pro-Russian judging by this google-translated Tweet of his:Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?
RPGs are relatively cheap to produce, no need for suicide bombs. However infantery attacks of course are very risky.
And yes in general there can already be seen an uptake in infantery attacks and a decrease in mechanized/armoured attacks.
Do RPGs do much against modern tanks? Not much better than a suicide vest if you have to find the exact angle and get lucky.
Yes I know IFV's are not MBT's, some Bradley's have already arrived however, judging by the boasts of US Logistics. The 100 I refer to is just Leopards and the Challengers, expected around the end of March, though not sure what that will translate to in terms of being in active use.
I'm much less worried that some people, it seems, with the current lack of activity on the Ukrainian side and Russia's 'Offensives'. To me, Russia appear more and more impotent every day that goes by. Boggles the mind how little they've achieved really... Behind the front lines do they ever do any damage at all to Ukraine's military equipment and infrastructure? All this devastating long range missile arsenal Russia wields and from a strategic point of view they've used it to achieve absolutely nothing? Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds too ridiculous to be true. Ukraine can keep the bulk of its forces out of fire range and still hold the likes of Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
We've been here before, Ukraine is patient and there is little point them launching any major operations now, knowing their capabilities will be higher once the upgraded equipment arrives. Activity will most likely depend on GLSDB delivery now, they will wait for those.
Sorry for blindly accusing the guy of being pro-russian. Saying western tanks will be in-effective and 'too late'!? just sounds like a very odd pro-russian coping type opinion to me.
Russia have 3300 tanks. They have also10k in storage in the West. They might be of dubious quality (ie age and condition) but they are good for scavenging. They are also in a wartime production and can produce 200 tanks a year (if I remember well but it could be even more) Ukraine currently rely on old soviet tanks who are significantly inferior to the average Russian tank
However not everything is doom and gloom
a- Russia seem to be struggling with missiles. Hence why the production is reducing
b- Many on that site seems wondering why Ukraine is obsessed with tanks as they believe that they need long range missiles more, certain types of drones and planes more
c- Russia's offensive will still not be able to invade all of Ukraine. It will probably be enough to capture the Donbas
Bottom line of the story is this
a- Russia is taking the war very seriously. In fact they had switched to wartime production. NATO is not. Our 'peace time production' is laughable thus there is a real concern that we'll run out of help we can provide
b- Crimea is Russia's real red line. If lost then Putin might go nuclear. It might also cost his job (and life)
c- No one will invest in rebuilding Ukraine unless he's got solid assurances that Ukraine is safe. Putin's words are worth nothing so this assurance must come from the West.
d- They believe that the typical 'all in' strategy the US love to use should be reintroduced. Basically Nato should arm Ukraine to the teeth, with everything it needs and with huge quantities. These will allow Ukraine to give Russia a swift and proper beating with the latter lacking the time to react. Once they reach Crimea's door and with no chance of Russia retaining it then Putin will be forced to come to the negotiating table. At that point its suggested that Zelensky would push Putin to retreat his troops and give his consent for Ukraine to join NATO/EU in exchange of the Ukrainians accepting Crimea as part of Russia.
Against those delivered to Ukraine yes.
However usually not by frontal attacks, but if you can flank a Leopard, Abrams or Challenger because it isn't covered well, you can damage or destroy it easily using an RPG. Turkey lost some Leopard in Syria due to this (enables by their own tactical errors which resembled more the Russian than the Ukrainian approach).
The most modern variants of some Western tanks do have an active protection system against incoming projectiles and should not be harmed by RPGs, but those are off the table for Ukraine so far. For example the Leopard 2 A7V+ uses the same Trophy APS that was developed and is used by the Merkava, but Ukraine is only getting A4 and A6 versions.
As said I am only relaying the message from those sites which are the most detailed I fount. They criticise when they feel that criticism is due (especially the politics surrounding the Leopard-Abrams farce) but I can guarantee that they are not pro Z. In fact Mirco Campociari had taken Italian pro Z supporters to court for calling him Neo Nazi while General Capitini is a decorated general who even worked with NATO.
There are 4 things that are worrying me
a- Russia is taking the war extremely seriously as defeat will probably cost Putin's life. In fact they have ramped to war time production and have been releasing prisoners to act as cannon fodder or workers in factories. NATO's main concern seem to be not to piss Russia off and to make sure that their toys don't end in Russian hands
b- At present Russia is on the offensive and that despite the fact that their major offensive hasn't started.
c- Ukraine top brass seem divided for the first time with Zaluzhny hinting of a possible disagreement with Zelensky on how to use the reserves
d- That site are puzzled with Ukraine's obsession with tanks. They also fear that the amount of tanks provided will not be enough for a real offensive.
Ukraine will never ever accept Crimea to be part of Russia. Crimea is vitally important to them and they will take it back.
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One of the largest coal mines there. It simply must hold.
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Said this weeks ago and told that I was listening to the Russian propaganda or some shit.
Even the Russian guy here said the Russians could not escalate more when I said they could by using more bodies. They may be ill equipped and poorly trained but so are most of the UA troops at the moment as well.
I get it that some people want the UA to win and refuse to look at the battle field news rationlly but It's really concerning for the UA in the next few weeks.
Well, most of us know full well that more deaths means nothing to Kremlin, while Ukraine are trying to save as many of their own as they can. I do expect Russia to make some slight progress this month, however, I fully expect some major counter offensive by the yellow blues in April. Longer range missiles will help enormously.
You have also been saying that Bahkmut is falling for months now, and it's still there. There is no source for UA troops being ill equipped and poorly trained, but you opt to sell it as a fact anyway.
The manpower of the RA has never been doubted here. However, its capabilities for performing a full on offensive with the new recruits and a prepared enemy with NATO weaponry, we'll see. They haven't so far, and so far I don't see Zelensky or its allies particularly worried.
Winter will pass and we'll see the reopening of several battlefronts (Kherson, Zaporzhizhia/Melitopol, Svatove/Kreminna/Severodonetsk) to see what's what.