There was an article in my Dutch newspaper yesterday that went over the current state of the war. It mentioned that, according to Paul Gubarev (former Donbas separatist leader), Ukraine have managed to put 26% of Russian oil refineries out of commission. Pretty significant (if true).
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Here it is. Russia's ultimate humiliation
And suddenly attacks like the one on the harbour in Tuapse look even more important. This is what Russia would need to import gas and Ukraine is also diminishing Russias capabilities to do that. If they keep going this could be very nasty for Russia.
When you look at the big picture its quite impressive what Ukraine has achieved. They are doing strategic bombing deep behind enemy lines, entirely by using their own hardware . Most of which was designed very recently as well.
Here it is. Russia's ultimate humiliation
And again (I’m too lazy to respond to your every post but I keep asking you to stick to good sources). A retired army colonel in a suit that uses words oil and petrol interchangeably is probably not the best expert on the matter?
Russia has always been importing petrol (100’s of thousands of gallons per year). It exported significantly more but the exports had been widely damaged by the export ban on petrol that’s been active since late 2023 (it’s not impossible to export it but it’s way harder to do so). And petrol exports never were huge — Russia is shit at refining its own oil so it mostly exports crude oil.
So yeah, the situation is quite interesting — Russian market lacks about 20% of petrol that it requires and it is likely going to increase the import massively. Still, the guys in the video have zero clue and they can’t even read their own sources properly. His first phrase is literally a lie. I know that you don’t trust mainstream media but it does write about it. Heck, even Russian (non-independent, so very much an active piece of Putin’s propaganda machine) press writes about it openly.
I don’t know why I keep preaching to you, asking you to sustain informational hygiene and not bring nonsense sources to this thread, it’s clearly not working. But I’ll keep doing so.
The name really sells this story
The retired army colonel in a suit thinks Ukraine is getting Tomahawks, so I don't expect he's a good source for much at all. Which only puts him on par with most other sources posted in here...
I'll let Caolan off, he's doing great work in frontline journalism but still young, prone to click baiting and fking furious at everything Russia is doing.
This is the story that's caused a bit of a stir, the announced elimination of all import duties on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, and jet fuel.
https://eec.eaeunion.org/news/sovet...zin-diztoplivo-sudovoe-toplivo-i-aviakerosin/
and:
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/09/...at-benzin-zagranitsei-iz-za-defitsita-a175876
"Russian authorities are preparing to begin purchasing gasoline abroad" being the wording used to suggest that Russia doesn't currently import and from what I can find they don't, except in tiny quantities. There's been nothing significant since the last fuel crisis in 2011 & 2014.
They've also today extended export bans to a complete ban on gasoline (I think producers exporting directly were previously exempt), diesel can now only be exported from producers.
https://www.interfax.ru/business/1050085
You nit-pick me cos this shit affects you.
Yep. That's it.
This story literally says that Russia has, for example, increased their import of gasoline from Belarus in 36% from last year. Which suggests... that it has been importing gasoline before.
But I do appreciate you digging deeper and linking the original sources with more credible information* instead of some random guys on twitter misrepresenting or sensationalizing it (even very important stuff — like an actually existing fuel shortage crisis). That's what I've been asking you to do.
* there's some irony in those sources being Kommersant (for The Moscow Times), Izvestia and Interfax but they're fairly reliable in this kind of stuff despite being government-controlled.
Import data up to 2022: undata. 2022 is rounded down to zero, 2023 similar, 2024 3k Metric tons. Vs 5,000k Mt of exports.
So the story isn't its the first time ever, which would have been funny. Russia imports petrol/gasoline mainly during emergencies, otherwise very little to none. The story is that, as we know, Russia has an emerging fuel crisis and it appears they are about to ramp up imports again, we'll see what happens. They don't exactly have a lot of supply options and Belarus may not be able to cover it. Then there may be knock on effects with the exports for surrounding countries that rely on Russian refined products.
I'll still stand by my use of green smileys given the widely held perception of Russia's infinite resources. Its a humiliation for them, as their puppets scream and shout about how Russia has won this war, they have to go begging for fuel (that thing which has a history of ending wars, when one party runs out of it).
I don't actually get my news from twitter, there's not exactly an abundance of strictly objective non-sensationalised reporting on it, but its the app we have integration for and people like their news with a concerned face attached. I pretty much only use it to find a link to post on here.
I'm not being the only one going round verifying all the details of every news story every time though, I cba.
And to @Simbo — lovely stuff. The issue is if you look through all of the sources but post a dodgy twitter link, the thread viewers only see the latter. While this post is so much more valuable.
It's interesting that this time they actually arrested him. The last time the guy was identified as being a suspect and in Poland in June of last year, the Polish authorities dragged out executing the warrant until he had time to flee to Ukraine with the help of an employee of their embassy.
Thanks mate: 26% is massive, especially if they can build on it. Carbon fuels are Russia’s ATM.
When I saw this figure I wondered how far production would have to drop before it became a choice between supporting the invasion through sales and direct supplies to the military, or stopping ordinary Russians from freezing to death.
I wouldn't bet on Putin's preference if it ever did come to that choice either.
Given he's sending hundreds of thousands of Russians to their death and mutilation in Ukraine, I don't think having to impose food and energy rations will be a huge issue for Putin. He might choose to impose them on faraway regions first though, just like military recruitment is busiest there.
French journalist killed.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...-antoni-lallican-killed-by-a-drone-in-ukraine
Dozens injured after 'savage' Russian drone strike on Ukrainian railway station, Zelenskyy says
https://news.sky.com/story/at-least...inian-railway-station-zelenskyy-says-13444010
China provides intelligence to Russia on Ukraine targets, Ukrainian intelligence says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china...rgets-ukrainian-intelligence-says-2025-10-04/
Putin is apparently bricking it at the thought of the US providing TLAMs to Ukraine.
Hopefully this isn't just another Trump negotiation tactic.
Hopefully this isn't just another Trump negotiation tactic.
Even if they are provided which I doubt , they'll be geolocked for targeting.
"Oh no, Ukraine will be able to do to us what we are doing to them and that's not fair."
Putin has birthday today.
One year closer to death for him, not much to celebrate, but at least its something.
One year closer to death for him, not much to celebrate, but at least its something.
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He does look annoyingly healthy for his age. And that is despite the rumours that keep circulating about his overall health.
I think the West needs to plan ahead, on the basis that he is in power until at least his 80th birthday, regardless of what the Russian constitution says about term limits.
Hopefully this war will take so much out of Russia (in terms of money, equipment, manpower, and appetite for fighting), that even if he is there for another decade he won’t ever be in a position to attack a European country again.
If Ukraine had fallen in a few weeks I think we’d already have seen the focus moved to Moldova and then possibly Serbia.
Does AFU got the platforms to launch Tomahawks available?
No, the US would have to provide the launchers along with the missiles. The only availble launch platforms for Tomahawks are naval platforms which are all out of the question and Typhon ground based launchers.
I'm pretty sure that they do. He has already changed the constitution once, there's literally no reason for him not to do it again if/when needed.
Realistically, he's staying in power until the day he dies, he's too paranoid to retire (not that he wishes to) — unless there's a coup (not likely) or a revolution (same). And he doesn't look like he's close to dying
I'm pretty sure that they do. He has already changed the constitution once, there's literally no reason for him not to do it again if/when needed.
Realistically, he's staying in power until the day he dies, he's too paranoid to retire (not that he wishes to) — unless there's a coup (not likely) or a revolution (same). And he doesn't look like he's close to dying
No, I agree.
All I’d say is that he guards his health so closely, and clearly has had plastic surgery, so if he WAS unhealthy we may not see it. Clutching at straws though.
Russia's industrial titans furlough workers as its war economy stalls
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...gh-workers-its-war-economy-stalls-2025-10-09/
Der Spiegel has a piece on how Germany wanted to help the Russian military in a 1 billion euro deal. It included building modern training centers in Russia. The plans stopped when Russia annexed Crimea. But this was all post-Georgia 2008. In fact, that 2008 war with Georgia showed Russia it had to reform and modernize its military. And Germany was keen to help.
One can argue how ethical or smart this was from Germany but it's just another datapoint that Russia could have had decent (pragmatic) relations with Europe. Putin risked damaging all these relationships with his aggression against Ukraine. Or maybe he thought Europe wouldn't give a shit.
One can argue how ethical or smart this was from Germany but it's just another datapoint that Russia could have had decent (pragmatic) relations with Europe. Putin risked damaging all these relationships with his aggression against Ukraine. Or maybe he thought Europe wouldn't give a shit.
https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/ukr...bilden-a-cafb4154-f269-47a9-8bbf-ec2a2d74610d
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You forgot the best part: upon the invasion of Crimea the German state then forbade the export of the training center to Russia by Rheinmetall, and Rheinmetall responded by suing the state for damage compensation for the loss of profits. I guess if your reputation is already as ruined as Rheinmetall's you don't care how that looks as long as you get the money. They wanted €130m from the state, lost in front of two courts, and the case has been rested since then. Here's a non-paywalled German article about it from early last year: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/wdr/rheinmetall-russland-streitkraefte-100.html
Zelensky is set to meet Trump in Washington on Friday.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/wh...e-house-meeting-russia-ukraine-war-rcna237334
Norway should just send a nobel guy with zelensky and tell him if he expels the russians from ukraine he gets the prize next year guaranteed.
There's no end to the poor guys suffering :/
Deja vu?
How could this possibly be? Thats so unlike Trump.
The FT are reporting that Putin went on a history rant in Alaska. Talking about Rurik, Yaroslav the Wise, and some 17th century shit. Trump cut the meeting short.
Question, how is Putin gonna get to Hungary? I know that Poland won't shoot his plane down, but the thought must be in his head nonetheless. He's probably gonna be a no-show.
Escorted by US fighter jets perhaps. Should help cause further rifts within NATO.
If that really is what happened then Putin was surprisingly tone-deaf. Trump respects and admires the mob boss version of Putin, who dictatorially rules his country effectively unopposed and can have opponents murdered or locked up as he likes. It's what he resonates with, what he wants to be himself, what methods he understands. If Putin approached this in a way that's functionally dividing up Ukraine between them with Trump economically exploiting the west and Putin doing his land grab in the east, they may well have found common ground.
But a history lecture? Trying to reason and argue for why Putin's right? Trump doesn't give a damn about that, even if he were mentally capable of grasping what is said.