If they're getting a good price for it then is it such a daft thing to do though? Obviously I hope their economy suffers as much as possible but I'm not sure this is a clear sign of that given the sky high price of gold right now.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
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In the latest edition of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood), Imran (@Annihilate Now!) & Jamie (@Vault Dweller) celebrate a fantastic victory as Manchester United won 2-0 in the Derby. They celebrate the changes Carrick has made, discuss our new coaching team and find time to play a Stupid Game. Enjoy!
If they're getting a good price for it then is it such a daft thing to do though? Obviously I hope their economy suffers as much as possible but I'm not sure this is a clear sign of that given the sky high price of gold right now.
Why would it be? I mean genuinely, Russia is selling its gold consistently, how does it deciding to sell it to its own citizens a sign of an immediate ongoing economical collapse?
The actual value of Russia's gold reserve is what matters — I think it's like ~57% of what the country had pre-invasion. This has nothing to do with this particular news though, it's an ongoing process (and quite a damning one at that, strategically). But then again, in the last weeks it has grown by a few %.
Don't get me wrong, the collapse is going to happen eventually. Strategically it's not a sustainable way to live (and spending more than 40% of your gold reserves in a few years is a catastrophe). And I don't think it's a reversible process for Russian economy even if the war stops tomorrow.
But I struggle to see how Russian central bank selling some of its gold to its citizens is the final straw that showcases us that Russia is about to lose. Sadly, Russia still has (vastly) more resources than Ukraine and will win any war of attrition if Europe/U.S. will stop or significantly reduce its support to Ukraine (and with Trump clearly trying to wiggle his way out of it, it's a scarily realistic scenario).
What a way to broker a peace deal. Donald Trump, humanitarian exceptionnelle.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ss-ukraine-into-peace-deal-sources-2025-11-21
This latest attempt by Trump seems like yet another try to gift Putin a win. It was probably cooked up behind closed doors when they met in Alaska.
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
10. The U.S. guarantee:
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
The full plan
1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
- A U.S. official told Axios this would be an explicit security guarantee for Ukraine from the U.S., the first time that has officially been on the table during these talks, though the proposal does not offer further details on what it entails.
- Note: Ukraine's army currently has 800,000-850,000 personnel, and had around 250,000 beforethe war, according to a Ukrainian official.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
- Note: NATO countries including France and the U.K. have been working on separate proposals that would include small numbers of European troops on Ukrainian soil after the war. This plan appears to disregard that possibility.
10. The U.S. guarantee:
- The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
- If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
- If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
- If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
- The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
- The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
- Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
- Infrastructure development.
- Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
- The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
- The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
- Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
- $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
- The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
- Note: New START, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, is due to expire in February.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
- Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
- Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. (Note: Similar ideas were incorporated into Trump's 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan).
- All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
- Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
- Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
- All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an 'all for all' basis.
- All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
- A family reunification program will be implemented.
- Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
- Note: This is the same general structure Trump proposed to govern the Gaza peace agreement.
I actually think it’s a more serious proposal than the initial reactions would suggest. There are some things that would be impossible to stomach for Ukraine, certainly, particularly the de facto recognition of Donbas. But there are some significant concessions from Russia too: the size of Ukraine’s future army, what is described as an article 5 esque security guarantee, and frozen Russian funds being used to rebuild Ukraine. Considering the realities on the battleground, I think it’s the most realistic basis for actual negotiations yet.
I just don't see giving Putin the land he's already stolen and is presently occupying as anything other than not just a win for him, but also a way for him to squirm out of being a global pariah/outcast. Trump simply wants to normalize relations with Russia so he and his family can begin enriching themselves from things Putin gives them, just as the Trump family have done with Qatar and Saudi. As long as Russia are under sanctions, its very difficult for Trump to financially ally himself with Putin's Russia, which is what I suspect is at the core of his desire to end the way, even if its on terms involving a tacit Ukrainian surrender.
I agree in principle. But the reality is that Ukraine are slowly losing the war, and it doesn’t look like Europe or the US are going to do anything to try and win it. So what’s the alternative?
I don't think that's true. The reality is both sides have been severely damaged in this conflict which itself is largely a frozen war of attrition that no one is winning or losing. Ukraine can continue fighting indefinitely with western support, especially if the EU leverage the 300b in frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US. This is something Trump has already agreed to earlier this year.
Trump is simply trying to coerce Zelenskyy into signing an agreement that benefits Putin far more than it does Ukraine because it gifts Putin the land he already occupies, which was something Putin previously called for. The only reason this is happening is because Trump wants a "win" by being perceived as ending the war, so that he can then begin doing "deals" with Putin's Russia.
Everything Trump does is always tied in some way to his personal enrichment or aggrandizement, and this is no exception.
I think the situation on the battlefield heavily favours Russia at the moment, sadly. They’re not storming towards Kyiv any time soon but in the long run it’s only going one way unless something changes and I struggle to see where the change is going to come from. Ukraine are decidedly on the defensive and any hope of them pushing Russia out or back seems like wishful thinking by now. There was a time where Ukraine could have won on the battlefield had Europe and the US been decisive enough but they weren’t, and there’s no indication that Europe (or certainly the US) are going to do any more than enable Ukraine to just barely defend until war fatigue hampers either Ukraine’s ability to fight or Europe’s ability to fund the fight. Those are the realities. I wish it wasn’t but given the situation, it’s either a very long war with bad odds or some kind of compromise. I’m not saying Ukraine should accept this plan as it is, obviously, but there is something to negotiate from here.
Zelenskyy’s speech sounds a bit grim. Nothing concrete, I’m guessing he’s waiting for people to show that they support him rejecting this deal as the consequences will be brutal.
On the contrary, it very much looks like he is signing the document and just informs people about it.
I don't see how this is anything other than an almost unconditional victory that's being handed to Putin. If you look at the combination of points 6 and 8, Ukraine's army needs to decrease and be capped to that lower size, while NATO cannot station any troops in Ukraine. They would be left crippled.
Meanwhile, Putin gets to keep all the land he's already stolen illegitimately. The only thing Ukraine gets in return are security guarantees from a supposed ally that has behaved extremely untrustworthy on the world stage and has seemed more like an ally to Russia.
It's basically an open invitation for further land grabs in the future. Putin is surely laughing himself sick right now.
I disagree. If the situation favored either side, there would be a clear trajectory of progress to show for it. What we are looking at is a frozen conflict where neither side are able to move the front lines in any meaningful way that benefits them. That's why its critical for the Ukrainians to not fall for this deal. There will come a point where the Russian economy begins to buckle under sanctions pressure and the US and EU need to continue applying as much pressure as possible instead of entertaining outcomes that reward Putin's invasion by allowing him to keep the land he's occupying.
This is an awful deal for Ukraine but people have been waiting for the Russian economy to collapse for 3 years now.
A couple more points to talk about
4. "A dialog between Russia and NATO, mediated by the US." The US is part of NATO, how could they possibly mediate? Makes no sense.
11. "Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered." The US just casually deciding what the EU should do. They should have absolutely no say in this and it has no place in a peace plan.
14. "Funds frozen in Europe to be used for the rebuild, with an additional 100 billion from Europe. The remaining funds will then go to a Russia-US investment". What the actual feck? These funds are frozen by Europe, again the US should have no say in this. And then they expect Europe to put another 100 billion in it while handing over control over it to the US and Russia?
It is an absolutely rotten plan that is written exclusively with American and Russian interests in mind.
4. "A dialog between Russia and NATO, mediated by the US." The US is part of NATO, how could they possibly mediate? Makes no sense.
11. "Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered." The US just casually deciding what the EU should do. They should have absolutely no say in this and it has no place in a peace plan.
14. "Funds frozen in Europe to be used for the rebuild, with an additional 100 billion from Europe. The remaining funds will then go to a Russia-US investment". What the actual feck? These funds are frozen by Europe, again the US should have no say in this. And then they expect Europe to put another 100 billion in it while handing over control over it to the US and Russia?
It is an absolutely rotten plan that is written exclusively with American and Russian interests in mind.
Just as they've been waiting for Russia to win. Its clear the war has affected both sides in comparable ways. Russia have lost over 1m people to deaths and injuries, so contrary to the "Russia is winning because they're gradually gaining territory" narrative, the reality is no one is winning.
The security guarantee isn't even a real guarantee. There is no legally passed written obligation to intervene with American forces if Russia attacks again.
The deal is essentially based on a hope that Russia won't attack again after this. And those who warn that Ukraine remains vulnerable to an invasion 2.0 will be brushed away as "warmongers" and "peace blockers".
Ultimately it's up to Ukraine. With the high amount of AWOL figures and draft dodging the Ukrainian public cannot expect Zelensky to perpetually reject everything. That's not a judgment of those who don't want to fight, it's just pointing out the difficulties for Zelensky.
If Zelensky and his government had done something with the feedback of troops and tackled the corruption and the US didn't elect Trump, then Ukraine might have had a lot more morale and support to inflict more damage. But here we are.
Agreed. Its simply a repackaged version of the deal Trump attempted to coerce Zelenssky into signing earlier this year after berating him in the oval office. Half of the security guarantees in the language are not enforceable and anyone who knows anything about Putin, knows he will break any deal when it suits him.
Yes, but Russia previously talked about a Ukrainian army of 50,000 troops. This text says 600,000. That’s still a large army that doesn’t leave Ukraine defenceless – especially if the lack of a NATO membership is countered by actual, article 5 esque security guarantees, which is how it’s being described by American officials in US media. The latter is obviously absolutely vital, security guarantees must be firm, concrete and article 5 esque.
I agree that it’s disgusting if this ends up with Russia being rewarded for their invasion. I’m just saying that, given how dire things are for Ukraine right now, there is something in there that might make it the least bad option, if they can negotiate it a bit more in their direction. It’s the biggest Russian concessions we’ve seen so far and that’s not nothing.
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There is, only one side is gaining ground and putting the other side in the defensive. They’re doing it very slowly but they are doing it. There’s also no guarantee whatsoever that Russia’s economy buckles before public opposition means several NATO countries scale back their Ukraine support, leaving Ukraine weaker on the battlefield.
That's been the case since the early days of the war. Unless you can show me an entire oblast the Russians have taken recently, there's really no evidence the Russians are winning. Let's also not forget the Ukrainians invaded Russian territory and held it for 8 months before Putin had to move other forces into the region to finally expel them, despite he himself being the original invading force into Ukraine. That's definitely not a "Russia is winning" scenario. If either side were winning, there would be clear evidence to substantiate it, not just drips and drabs of one side occasionally claiming a town no one has previously heard of.
No, it hasn’t been the case at all. Ukraine were able to go on the offensive and win back territory earlier in the war, at one point it looked like they might push out Russia entirely. Trump pulling the plug on US military support has clearly put Ukraine in the defensive, and unfortunately weakened their hand in negotiations. I’m not saying they’re losing tomorrow, or next year, or the year after that. But the odds of their negotiation position being stronger in two years than now are not great.
That was very early in the war. Things haven't changed in any meaningful way in at least two years, which flies directly in the face of the Russia is winning narrative. Unless you can point me to an entire oblast that Putin has gained control of over the past 2 to 2.5 years, there's little evidence to substantiate the claim.
Possibly. As I’ve said, it sounds really grim either way.
Another aspect of the plan, deliberately or by accident, seems to sabotage the European debate on frozen Russian assets. This 28-point plan has bullets on how to use those funds. Are the Europeans going to agree with this?
Speaking from experience of Bosnian war and the aftermath of it, Russia is definitely winning.
Bosnia is 12 times smaller than Ukraine, or somewhere around that, with ten times less people than Ukraine, roughly.
At one point, two thirds of country (possibly even more) were occupied by quazi-Yugoslav army.
It went a bit the other way later, but when we started taking teritories back, Dayton peace agreement was made and our leaders where practically forced to sign it.
So, while we were happy we kept our country, that Bosnia still existed even if the enemies goal was to practically kill any idea of Bosnian independence, what did we gain on field, 30 years after the war?
Country is de facto divided, with half of it in Serbian hands. Ethnically cleansed half of country will almost certainly never be integrated into Bosnia. And who knows what future holds, it has been 30 years since war ended, what happens in next 20, 30, 50 or hundred?
For Russia to legitimize taking Lugansk, Donetsk and Crimea, it is an absolute win. And right now, nothing points otherwise.
We are not four weeks into war, we are almost full four years into it. Europe and USA have had plenty of opportunities to help more if they wanted. After all this time, the help may only go down.
Ukraine have been dealt shity set of cards, extremely shity.
I don’t think there are many parallels between the two. The fundamental question I asked and which still hasn’t been answered is “where is the evidence that Russia is winning this war?”. With the occasional exception of Russia claiming the odd town or village, there is none. It seems therefore that people are falling for the narrative the Russian side would like them to believe. I go back to the original point that we are in a frozen conflict where neither side are on a clear, unmistakable trajectory of winning or losing.
Then it depends a lot on what constitutes as winning or losing for you. If you think Kyiv falling into Russian arms is the only way for Russia to win, then yes, they will certainly lose.
However, this is not a PC game, it absolutely is a win for Russia if they can legitimize what they took from Ukraine and have sanctions lifted, setting themselves up for later invasions in 20, 30, 50, pick a number years.
Have you considered Ukraine perhaps wants to be on the defensive? Its a war of attrition, for Ukraine at least. Its much more efficient to be on the defensive, by orders of magnitude. Pokrovsk or wherever is not worth sacrificing a single Ukrainian soldier for. All that matters is what cost they can inflict on Russian forces.
Russia are not fighting a war of attrition, they are still fighting for every scrap of land no matter the cost, for christ only knows what gain... Long may that continue.
Unfortunately I think it’s wishful thinking, if not a little naive, to not acknowledge that Ukraine are currently under very heavy pressure on the battlefield, and that momentum is on Russia’s side, even if they are losing a lot of soldiers and equipment per gain. Every report points to that at the moment. Whether that means Russia is very slowly winning is a different matter.
This deal won't happen. US negotiators are bad faith amateurs. Some of the 28 points make demands of european allies that they haven't actually cleared with said allies (stationing european aircrafts in Poland, forgetting to check with Poland first).
The whole premise of negotiating with only one of the parties and then presenting it as a take-it-or-leave-it deal for the party that was never included in the negotiations to begin with has been tried and failed before. It's nothing more than trumpian exit strategy.
Ukraine's strategy has to be to survive till the next US election.
The whole premise of negotiating with only one of the parties and then presenting it as a take-it-or-leave-it deal for the party that was never included in the negotiations to begin with has been tried and failed before. It's nothing more than trumpian exit strategy.
Ukraine's strategy has to be to survive till the next US election.
Agreed, although Zelenskyy's address to Ukrainians this evening sounds pretty bleak.
"Right now is one of the most difficult moments in our history. At this moment, Ukraine may face a very hard choice: either the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner."
I stopped putting any stock in tiny map changes over 2 years ago. It drives the media, but its irrelevant to the outcome of this war. Pokrovsk is starting to look like another Bahkmut, ie it'll take them 6 months to fully take the town/rubble, which I suspect may have even been the plan. I said back then that Ukraine only needs to 'lose' another 3 or 4 Bahkmut's to win this war.
If Russian does take it, then what? They take Pokrovsk and they've not actually won anything except an opportunity for more massive losses in another town that doesn't actually achieve any of their objectives while their economy continues to crumble.
Anyone who thinks Ukraine can lose this war needs to explain how. Russia will run out of men/money long before Ukraine runs out of drones/fields/friends.
Correction: the US is NATO (in effect).
The thing for Zelenskyy to do here is to rewrite the proposal in a way that's more advantagous to Ukraine's desired outcome and resubmit it to Witkoff. At that point, Putin will likely jump off because he won't want to entertain any of Ukraine's demands.
One of the points is using the frozen assets. Which is something EU is currently negotiating a law to pass on independently of this.
Of course in trumps proposal the frozen assets will be spent on a US driven rebuild wherein the US will collect 50% of the profits.
You couldn't make this shit up.
Of course in trumps proposal the frozen assets will be spent on a US driven rebuild wherein the US will collect 50% of the profits.
You couldn't make this shit up.
An imposed settlement favouring the aggressor and Trumps mates. Deja vu. Mark it down as 13 wars ended.
God I hate that orange cnut.
I've not given the time of day to this latest 'US-Russia' deal, is there a good reason so many people are taking it seriously? Those bunch of corrupt clowns getting together to discuss how to screw over Ukraine is nothing new, we've had 9 months of it. What gives?
I did see the headline from Zelensky's broadcast, I suppose that's just part of his diplomatic strategy. We already know the US government is not a friend of Ukraine, it is in fact an ally of the Russian government. Not one penny of aid has been allocated since Trump took office, any remaining deliveries are from Biden's massive commitment in late 2024, cos he knew what was coming. Don't forget the tactical "pauses" also, which Hegseth laughably got all the blame for.
I don't know why some are taking it more seriously than the last one Putin tried to push by way of the Trump administration. Interestingly, Trump just said if the plan doesn't go forward then "I guess they'll just continue fighting".
