Russian invasion of Ukraine

Italy Slams Brakes on NATO Program to Buy US Weapons for Ukraine
“If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani, who’s also a deputy prime minister, told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “Other things such as security guarantees will be needed.”
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The remarks are the clearest sign yet that Giorgia Meloni’s government has changed its strategy on Ukraine after running out of funds and weathering tensions within the ruling coalition. While the government insists that it will continue to support Kyiv, it is also the first in Europe to explicitly suggest that Ukraine should not be provided with additional weapons while a ceasefire is being negotiated.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...us-weapons-for-ukraine?embedded-checkout=true
 
Der Spiegel has some details on transcript calls between European leaders. They seem very distrustful of the US role in the peace talks.

According to the document, Merz said Zelenskyy had to be "extremely careful in the coming days." "They are playing games, both with you and with us," Merz reportedly said, likely referring to the two US negotiators Steve Witkoff , a real estate mogul, and Jared Kushner , the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump .
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb, one of the few Europeans with good relations with Trump, also warned against the negotiating duo, according to the transcript. "We mustn't leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys," he said at one point during the conversation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte , also well-liked by Trump, echoed the Finn's sentiments, according to the written record. "I agree with Alexander; we must protect Volodymyr," Rutte said .
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There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron said, according to an English transcript of the phone call obtained by SPIEGEL. He added that there was “a great danger” for Zelenskyy. Russia’s demands for territorial concessions are one of the most sensitive points in the negotiations.
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https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukra...-48de-bda6-5d3926d8dbc3?sara_ref=re-so-app-sh
 
Simbo said:
He said some nice words for the camera, I'm not sure it actually accomplishes anything though. These peace talks have been all theatre for the last 10 months and over time have somehow got even more ridiculous and less likely to come to any kind of agreement.

Jared Kushner sat there now ffs... with Witkoff as obvious a Russian asset as it gets, like a professional money laundering tag team. I'd wager Marco has just been sent there to run cover for those two, but god knows what's really going on.

Every time Witkoff gets accused/excused of being inexperienced or plain old dumb, its like a shield that protects him. In reality he has decades of experience working with/for the Russians. Just like Trump.

I'm way past believing there's any chance of Trump being favourable/conciliatory toward Ukraine though, in any way. So my opinions are going to differ!
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I think you’re missing my point. It’s quite conceivable that without Rubio, Trump would by now have forced Ukraine to accept a very bad deal. Rubio has helped diffuse that situation twice. The negotiations being all theatre is the best Ukraine could hope for at the moment. I don’t like Rubio’s policies but we’re all lucky that there’s a rational person influencing Trump on these matters, and we should all hope that he, rather than Vance, becomes the next Republican candidate.
 
Jev said:
I think you’re missing my point. It’s quite conceivable that without Rubio, Trump would by now have forced Ukraine to accept a very bad deal. Rubio has helped diffuse that situation twice. The negotiations being all theatre is the best Ukraine could hope for at the moment. I don’t like Rubio’s policies but we’re all lucky that there’s a rational person influencing Trump on these matters, and we should all hope that he, rather than Vance, becomes the next Republican candidate.
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Trump has no power to "force Ukraine" to do anything. The US is apparently still supplying some intelligence and weapons through a 3rd party... maybe.. for now... The US is also a clear threat to Ukraine. I've love to see Zelensky just tell Trump to f*ck off and stay out of it, but that would be dumb unfortunately, he will play the diplomatic game entertain him with European leaders as its just better to keep Trump involved as long as possible, get what they can for as long as they can, but they are not daft, they have to be working under the assumption that what remains of US help will end at some point. They are just managing the situation as best they can with European allies.

If people take a step back and look at what has been going on with these negotiations, they will see Ukraine & Europe on one side of the table, the US & Russia on the other side. Its truly insane, but this is where we are at.

I hope your right about Rubio and that he can/has help the situation but I fear he's just another puppet doing what he's told. As obvious as it is to many already, its important to the US side to give enough reasonable doubt that they don't straight up work for Russia.
 
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Simbo said:
Trump has no power to "force Ukraine" to do anything.
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Yes, he does. If he stopped selling arms to Ukraine through Europe, cut off military intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, or lifted sanctions on Russia to give their economy a boost, that would put Ukraine under way more pressure to accept a bad deal rather than getting overrun.
 
Jev said:
Yes, he does. If he stopped selling arms to Ukraine through Europe, cut off military intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, or lifted sanctions on Russia to give their economy a boost, that would put Ukraine under way more pressure to accept a bad deal rather than getting overrun.
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Except that he doesn't have the leverage to do most of those things because of pressure from Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Its one of the few things they're generally unified about, and Trump won't want to needlessly squander his political capital simply to force a deal simply to assuage Putin's maximalist demands.
 
There's a factory capable of producing Patriot missiles in Europe which is scheduled to open late next year. Don't know enough to say it's a game changer, but hopefully the US can be persuaded to stay onside until then. Perhaps the elections in November might make some difference too.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
There's a factory capable of producing Patriot missiles in Europe which is scheduled to open late next year. Don't know enough to say it's a game changer, but hopefully the US can be persuaded to stay onside until then. Perhaps the elections in November might make some difference too.
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I don't think the patriot system is the wunderwaffe its portrayed to be.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I have no idea to be honest. I thought it was supposed to be expensive but good.
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It is. It's just not the right tool for every job.

Patriot is one of the few Ukrainian systems able to intercept ballistic missiles and generally keeps Russian aircrafts outside Ukraine.

But it is useless against the swarms of drones that make up the majority of Russian attacks. When you can build 50 Shahed for the price of a single Patriot missile you can easily overwhelm it.

Against those anti-aircraft guns and increasingly interceptor drones (yes that's a thing now) are just much more cost effective than the huge Patriot missiles.
 
Russia sent abducted Ukrainian children to North Korea, officials say
At least two Ukrainian children abducted by Russian forces were forcefully transferred to North Korea, Kyiv officials said at the US senate hearing.
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"Children there were taught to ‘destroy Japanese militarists’ and met Korean veterans who, in 1968, attacked the US Navy ship Pueblo, killing and wounding nine American soldiers," she added.
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https://www.euronews.com/2025/12/04...rainian-children-to-north-korea-officials-say
 
stefan92 said:
It is. It's just not the right tool for every job.

Patriot is one of the few Ukrainian systems able to intercept ballistic missiles and generally keeps Russian aircrafts outside Ukraine.

But it is useless against the swarms of drones that make up the majority of Russian attacks. When you can build 50 Shahed for the price of a single Patriot missile you can easily overwhelm it.

Against those anti-aircraft guns and increasingly interceptor drones (yes that's a thing now) are just much more cost effective than the huge Patriot missiles.
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Yeah the patriot or equivalent is important, but its not like its critical to Ukraine's war effort, it just means more civilians are killed if Ukraine can't access it.

I honestly can't think of anything that Trump could do or cut Ukraine off from that would lead to Ukraine being 'overrun' on some level, he can just prolong things and cause more innocent suffering. Removing sanctions or even if he finds a way to funnel cash, its not like the world is going to start doing business with Russia again. Europe certainly wouldn't anytime soon and the UK alone has more power than the US when it comes to worldwide maritime trade. Their economics will continue to deteriorate even if they find a way to continue funding the war.

On the other side there is little risk to Ukraine's funding for the foreseeable future, there will always be pissing about in the news before various deals are signed etc, that's normal, but its a fairly straightforward investment decision for anyone in Europe. Letting Ukraine fail here would be far more costly in the future.

Russia hasn't yet secured funds to get through the next month. Read that aloud three times cos what their ministry of finance is telling us and its not normal. Incredible how they get away with pretending its normal and the world doesn't report on it. If they are actually reporting truthful data, they are in a lot of trouble, if they are not... well the truth isn't going to be a positive adjustment.

They still need to raise a further 4 trillion rubles or so through domestic bonds to cover their 2025 deficit. They've said they aren't pulling anything from the national wealth fund this year for whatever reason (effectively dry?), so it all gotta be funded by bonds bought by banks that in turn is taking 'payday' loans from the central bank to be able to pay for... Oh and the 100% government owned Russian Railways just appealed for a bailout from the NWF because it has an extra 4 trillion ruble debt problem of its own.

Honestly Russian economics is fascinating right now and I might be a little obsessed. I also suspect there's a direct correlation between how much shit the Russian government is in and how much shit we have to hear about in the media everyday between US/Russia.
 
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US officials argued to member states that the assets are needed to help secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow and should not be used to prolong the war, said the diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
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Looks like Ukraine managed to hit Chechnya. Sounds like Kadyrov will be embarking on another Tik Tok revenge campaign shortly....

 
Raoul said:
Looks like Ukraine managed to hit Chechnya. Sounds like Kadyrov will be embarking on another Tik Tok revenge campaign shortly....

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"One of the deepest strikes inside Russia"? There are so many grifters on X.

Firstly, it's like 700-800 km depending on what front line you're counting from (just checked on google maps roughly from Donetsk-Kramatorsk). Secondly, they're regularly hitting Kazan/Chelyabinsk/Tyumen (mostly oblasts where the oil production is) etc., which are actually 1,5-2000 km deep inside Russia, that's just what I know of, I'm pretty sure there were many further targets as well.

Hitting Grozny-City is a massive reputational blow for Kadyrov though, it's his pride and joy (aside from "The Heart of Chechnya" mosque it's probably the most symbolically important building in the city, synonimous with Kadyrov's regime).
 
Simbo said:
I honestly can't think of anything that Trump could do or cut Ukraine off from that would lead to Ukraine being 'overrun' on some level
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Trump could cut Ukraine off Starlink and satellite intelligence data.
 
Alemar said:
Trump could cut Ukraine off Starlink and satellite intelligence data.
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That would be bad for Ukraine, but not a showstopper.

Ultimately, Trump would more than likely threaten these things because he's attempting to coerce Ukraine into a deal. If he goes too far Congress, who support Ukraine, would begin pushing back.
 
Redplane said:
And Belgium cracked huh. The seat of the European government of all places. But i know Belgium also needs American dollars so pressuring them is probably not that big of a challenge.
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It's not that simple. From what I understand, the €185B is held by Euroclear, who are located in Belgium. If the EU uses those frozen Russian assets, and then Russia launches a lawsuit and wins it, or for another reason regains the right to this money - then Belgium might have to pay up. €185B is huge for Belgium's economy, it would cripple the country. That's why Belgium has been insisting on guarantees from other European countries in case things go wrong, but those haven't been forthcoming. And so Belgium doesn't want this risk to be taken.

Also, undermining the safety and reliability of companies like Euroclear might lead to distrust outside Europe, and the EU economy could get a real shock if countries start avoiding doing this sort of business with EU-based companies.
 
How Russia keeps raising an army to replace its dead
The incentives go beyond cash, with pledges of debt relief and free childcare for soldiers’ families and guaranteed university places for their children. Criminal records, illness and even HIV are no longer automatic disqualifiers. For many men with little to lose, the front has become an employer of last resort.
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For many families, military service has become one of the few routes to upward mobility. In many regions, weak local labor markets leave few alternatives. The more precarious the economic outlook, the stronger the recruitment pipeline. “This kind of money can completely transform a Russian family’s life,” said Kluge. “The program works surprisingly well, but it has become far more expensive for the Kremlin.”
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“My wife was on maternity leave, my mother is retired — the family depended on me,” Anton told POLITICO in voice messages sent over Telegram. “During one argument, my wife said: ‘It would be better if you went to war.’ A month and a half later, I signed the contract. It felt like the only way out.” In Anton’s case, no recruiter was involved — he went to the recruitment center on his own.
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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/...yndication&utm_medium=RSS&utm_source=RSS_Feed
 
What a total shitshow. Other officials were also threatened that their "pet could die" or their "house might catch fire".

Bolshoi-loving banker threatened Euroclear CEO, amid EU talks on Russian assets
A French banker with close ties to Russia who works inside Euroclear has allegedly threatened its CEO, amid knife-edge EU talks on the firm's handling of frozen Kremlin assets.
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"Huby's on the radar of several intelligence services," a Western intelligence contact said.
A second intelligence source said: "The frequency of his flights [to Russia] raises suspicions and merits further investigation"
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And all this means that when von der Leyen's officials sit down with de Wever or Euroclear bosses for talks on Putin's money, some of their Belgian interlocutors might be worrying about their and their children's safety, instead of the legal or strategic merits of EU action.
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https://euobserver.com/eu-and-the-world/arb025ae39
 
Cheimoon said:
It's not that simple. From what I understand, the €185B is held by Euroclear, who are located in Belgium. If the EU uses those frozen Russian assets, and then Russia launches a lawsuit and wins it, or for another reason regains the right to this money - then Belgium might have to pay up. €185B is huge for Belgium's economy, it would cripple the country. That's why Belgium has been insisting on guarantees from other European countries in case things go wrong, but those haven't been forthcoming. And so Belgium doesn't want this risk to be taken.

Also, undermining the safety and reliability of companies like Euroclear might lead to distrust outside Europe, and the EU economy could get a real shock if countries start avoiding doing this sort of business with EU-based companies.
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There is another factor in play here: Euroclear generates profit on those frozen Russian assets, which in turn generates tax income for Belgium. In 2024, this reportedly meant €1.7B additional tax income. This money is being used to support Ukraine and as such counts as defence spending, which contributes to our NATO target. Since Belgium has been one of the worst NATO members at reaching even the current target of 2%, let alone the target of 5% by 2035, this money comes in handy to plug the gap in the short term without putting even more strain on our already disastrous budget.

I personally feel that our PM has a point about the risks of using this money for both our country and the European financial market, but it all rings a bit hollow when we're currently benefiting from it. And looking beyond that, I find this entire episode of Europe's failure to agree on ways to support Ukraine without the unprecedented confiscation of frozen assets a complete embarrassment for everyone involved. It's clear that very few, if any, of the member states are willing to make the necessary sacrifices to commit to Ukraine's support. This leaves Ukraine stuck with an invading Russia, a chaotic, unreliable and basically hostile US and a divided and powerless EU. Just a pathetic political spectacle all round.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
There's a factory capable of producing Patriot missiles in Europe which is scheduled to open late next year. Don't know enough to say it's a game changer, but hopefully the US can be persuaded to stay onside until then. Perhaps the elections in November might make some difference too.
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PAC-2's unfortunately.
 
According to WSJ reporting, the summer drone operation involved Ukrainian diaspora inside Russia. And drone pilots from Kyiv took over control from the drones via local cell towers.

Inside Ukraine’s Daring ‘Operation Spiderweb’ Attack on Russia
The drones were designed to fly autonomously toward the target airport, where a pilot in Kyiv would take over control using connection via local cell towers, guided by a feed from a camera on the drone.

The pilots, accustomed to the high pressure of front-line combat, reacted with sangfroid. “There was no anxiety,” recalled one pilot. “We had a specific goal and we knew we would achieve it.”
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The Tymofeyevs had taken part in street protests in Kyiv in 2014 that ousted a pro-Russian president. But Moscow’s subsequent annexation of Crimea and covert invasion of eastern Ukraine tanked its neighbor’s economy, and the couple joined a Ukrainian diaspora in Russia numbering millions. These Ukrainians are largely indistinguishable from the natives due to their cultural similarities, including fluent Russian.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/uk...operation-spiderweb-24d821ab?mod=hp_lead_pos7
 
FerociousCorgis said:
Enjoy your little wet red dreams of putin bro ha.
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I agree that the idea that Ukraine forced Russia to invade because of NATO affiliation or whatever is totally unsupportable. The problem is that such statements/debate will continue while Russia are being validated by Trump and his evil clown posse, which allows Putin to carry on with his invasion and propoganda.
 
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Inappropriate Behavior
AfonsoAlves said:
@Simbo

Can you now accept that me disliking Syrsky isn't an indication of me being some deep undercover Russian agent?
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You're quoting a guy literally named after the Russian mob, who is posting textbook Russian propaganda (ignore any good news, just attack Zelensky/Syrsky).

This forum is a parody sometimes.
 
Simbo said:
You're quoting a guy literally named after the Russian mob, who is posting textbook Russian propaganda (ignore any good news, just attack Zelensky/Syrsky).

This forum is a parody sometimes.
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Who is named after the Russian Mob?
 
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