Russian invasion of Ukraine

Shinjch said:
I am meaning more how it would be viewed internally in Russia. Is their comparative military failure easily acknowledged or just politicked away?

If you think Russia are just in this on their own then I don't know what to tell you.
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Who knows. Frankly if anyone still judges the Russian military the same as the American after their long list of failures in the past 3 years, they’re behind logic at this point.
 
africanspur said:
Who knows. Frankly if anyone still judges the Russian military the same as the American after their long list of failures in the past 3 years, they’re behind logic at this point.
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I'd question all parts of their military, even the parts that don't play much of a part in this conflict, if any.

You never want to underestimate an adversary, but i keep seeing them ranked 3rd or 4th on various navy rankings, maybe that is true, but i'd rather doubt it, outside their submarine fleet, they don't seem that impressive.
 
USA are in league of their own when it comes to precision strikes, but there isn't a country in Europe or in world bar the usual 2 suspects that would do much better in invading Ukraine. they have their issues, but they are entirely different animal compared to Venezuela, for various reasons.

USA could simply kill Zelensky in the first days of war, but everyone else? against the second biggest country in Europe with most active and probably the most battle hardened soldiers on entire continent atm, they would simply get stuck in expensive and costly war of attrition, just like Russia.

2 or 3 countries at best could sustain this tempo under such severe sanctions and without mobilization. and I dare to say everyone is overrating China. they would have equally high, probably even bigger losses in such conflict.
 
Bole Top said:
USA are in league of their own when it comes to precision strikes, but there isn't a country in Europe or in world bar the usual 2 suspects that would do much better in invading Ukraine. they have their issues, but they are entirely different animal compared to Venezuela, for various reasons.

USA could simply kill Zelensky in the first days of war, but everyone else? against the second biggest country in Europe with most active and probably the most battle hardened soldiers on entire continent atm, they would simply get stuck in expensive and costly war of attrition, just like Russia.

2 or 3 countries at best could sustain this tempo under such severe sanctions and without mobilization. and I dare to say everyone is overrating China. they would have equally high, probably even bigger losses in such conflict.
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This is nonsense.

Most major European countries would have done a lot better.

I mean, trying to invade across a 3000km frontline with 220,000 troops on D+0 is stupid and insane. Any sane general would have focused the troops around South Donetsk and Crimea and done an encirclement of the South without doing stupid thunder runs 500km deep into enemy territory only to get picked off one by one and stranded without supply.
 
Bole Top said:
USA are in league of their own when it comes to precision strikes, but there isn't a country in Europe or in world bar the usual 2 suspects that would do much better in invading Ukraine. they have their issues, but they are entirely different animal compared to Venezuela, for various reasons.

USA could simply kill Zelensky in the first days of war, but everyone else? against the second biggest country in Europe with most active and probably the most battle hardened soldiers on entire continent atm, they would simply get stuck in expensive and costly war of attrition, just like Russia.

2 or 3 countries at best could sustain this tempo under such severe sanctions and without mobilization. and I dare to say everyone is overrating China. they would have equally high, probably even bigger losses in such conflict.
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You are kinda talking about two things here, in terms of an invasion, i agree, would any nation bar the US and China do a better job of invading Ukraine? Probably not, but it begs the question, why aren't anybody else doing a WW-style invasion these days, well, because they aren't as dumb as Russia is.

In terms of a precision strike on Zelensky/Ukranian government, i'd say the Israelis, UK, and the french are all probably better at this stuff than the russians, there might be more, not sure.
 
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Morty_ said:
You are kinda talking about two things here, in terms of an invasion, i agree, would any nation bar the US and China do a better job of invading Ukraine? Probably not, but it begs the question, why aren't anybody else doing it, well, because they aren't as dumb as Russia is.

In terms of a precision strike on Zelensky/Ukranian government, i'd say the Israelis, UK, and the french are all probably better at this stuff than the russians, there might be more, not sure.
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Flying helicopters and VVD into contested airspace without SEAD was certainly...a choice.
 
Morty_ said:
You are kinda talking about two things here, in terms of an invasion, i agree, would any nation bar the US and China do a better job of invading Ukraine? Probably not, but it begs the question, why aren't anybody else doing a WW-style invasion these days, well, because they aren't as dumb as Russia is.

In terms of a precision strike on Zelensky/Ukranian government, i'd say the Israelis, UK, and the french are all probably better at this stuff than the russians, there might be more, not sure.
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they did some stupid things at the start, partly because they underestimated Ukraine, partly because of their leadership, but I'd say they also adapted well in other areas after a while.

now the conflict is just a slow war of attrition in which I don't see Ukraine getting anything back.

obviously, it's so costly for Russia you can still call them stupid for even being in such position, provided we take it as a fact that other major armies wouldn't even let it come to that point.
 
4 dead and 20+ injured in an overnight strike including the Oreshnik missile. The latter seems mostly intended to cause psychological impact.

Russia has used the Oreshnik ballistic missile as part of a massive overnight strike on Ukraine.

Four people were killed and 25 others injured in Kyiv on Thursday night, where loud booms could be heard for several hours, setting the sky alight with explosions.
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It is only the second time that Moscow has used the Oreshnik, which was first deployed to hit the central city of Dnipro in November 2024.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgqe9kv9xxvo
 
The war (counting from 24 Feb 2022) has now lasted as long as the Soviet-German war.
 
Has anyone read much about the so-called ‘fortress cities’ in eastern Ukraine?
It’s difficult to tell from the available maps if the Russians are getting close or not. Any ideas?
 
NicolaSacco said:
Has anyone read much about the so-called ‘fortress cities’ in eastern Ukraine?
It’s difficult to tell from the available maps if the Russians are getting close or not. Any ideas?
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The 'fortress belt' revolves around Kramatorsk & Slovyansk. From The Economist:

On the crest of a hill near the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the lines are 200m wide. First comes a belt of razor and anti-infantry wire. Next comes an anti-tank ditch, 2 metres deep and 3 metres wide. The excavated soil has become a defensive berm. Then comes more wire, a second anti-tank ditch and berm and then another strip of wire. In some places there is a third ditch, “dragon’s teeth” (tank traps made of concrete) and mines. The lines are part of Donbas’s fortress belt. With constant patrolling by drones, says Major Shutenko, they would make it “very difficult” for the Russians to break through.
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The Russians aren't there yet and are still grinding against Pokrovsk though Pokrovsk seems likely to fall sooner or later.
 
VorZakone said:
The 'fortress belt' revolves around Kramatorsk & Slovyansk. From The Economist:



The Russians aren't there yet and are still grinding against Pokrovsk though Pokrovsk seems likely to fall sooner or later.
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Thanks, I’ve just been having a look on my maps app.

It’s weird - if you go onto it and look up how to travel from say, Kramatorsk to Sloviansk (two of the northernmost of the fortress cities), then zoom right out so you can see the whole of Ukraine, it will really illustrate quite yet how little the Russians have advanced west over the past 4 (almost) years.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Thanks, I’ve just been having a look on my maps app.

It’s weird - if you go onto it and look up how to travel from say, Kramatorsk to Sloviansk (two of the northernmost of the fortress cities), then zoom right out so you can see the whole of Ukraine, it will really illustrate quite yet how little the Russians have advanced west over the past 4 (almost) years.
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Ukraine has indeed made Russia pay a lot in the Donbas but don't forget a significant part of southern Ukraine unfortunately got captured rather easily at the start of the invasion.

Russians are also making moves in Zaporizhia oblast at the moment.
 
VorZakone said:
Ukraine has indeed made Russia pay a lot in the Donbas but don't forget a significant part of southern Ukraine unfortunately got captured rather easily at the start of the invasion.

Russians are also making moves in Zaporizhia oblast at the moment.
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Yes I understand that. I think there have been a lot of recriminations in Kiev about how quickly those lowland areas by the sea capitulated. It must be doubly frustrating now we see quite how bad the Russians are at fighting. If they’d held out for a month it could have been another stalemate.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Yes I understand that. I think there have been a lot of recriminations in Kiev about how quickly those lowland areas by the sea capitulated. It must be doubly frustrating now we see quite how bad the Russians are at fighting. If they’d held out for a month it could have been another stalemate.
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Pretty sure some treason was involved as well.
 
Oil & Gas revenues down 43% in 2025... Though they've magically made up for it somewhat with what they say is tax rises, but that seems unlikely even if they were able to collect on all of them. December spending dropped by 20% (1.4 tril) year-on-year, which has still left them with a 5.7 tril deficit for the year.

That deficit is actually much better than many were forecasting, despite it being four times worse than the original 2025 plan. This is the third revision, still preliminary and just what they can get away with making public. They will have carried some problems forward into 2026 and there's been talk of some liabilities offloaded into regional budgets. The chart on page 6 of Evgen's thread tells a story. The December drop is much better this year than in the previous 3, despite the collapse of their oil revenues in Q3/4, yeh right...



The main problem though is how they fund it. They stated last January nothing from the NWF will be drawn to help with the 2025 deficit and they've mostly kept to that. Its all therefore been covered by domestic bonds bought by the banks, repayable so far in the future nobody will have to worry about it. Problem is these banks don't actually have the cash to pay for any of those bonds, so they've been taking repo/payday loans from the central bank in some mad circular finance scheme.



These are short term loans usually designed to cover liquidity gaps. Its essentially money printing but will be reversed if bank liquidity improves and it was just a Christmas spending kind of problem where Russians draw lots of cash out. Peskov today hinted at whether that will be the case or not.
 
Zelenskyy has said (as quoted by RBC Ukraine) that there's going to be a three-way meeting in UAE "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" that's going to last a couple of days.

It's not like I believe that anything's going to be decided by negotiations at this point in time, not sure if Putin is open to anything other than full capitulation but one could hope (even if no peace agreement is going to be just or fair, realistically). It's probably just theatre for one extremely orange and deluded viewer from both sides but hey...

There's a funny dig at Trump by Zelenskyy as he also added that "he hopes than UAE knows of this meeting since sometimes the Americans do those kind of "surprises"".
 
  • 1.2 million Russian casualties.
  • 600k Ukrainian casualties.
  • 325,000 Russians killed.
  • Up to 140k Ukrainians killed.
According to new study by CSIS think tank. The Russian KIA figure is a lot higher than the one estimated by Mediazona so keep in mind we do not know exact numbers, these are all estimates and ranges at the end of the day.

 
This company, Ubiquiti, is led by the Memphis Grizzlies owner: Robert Pera.

A monthslong Hunterbrook Media investigation found that Ubiquiti radio bridge antennae — devices used to extend Wi-Fi signals across long distances — serve a critical communications need of the Russian military, including in drone operations.
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https://hntrbrk.com/ubiquiti/

 
Twelve miners killed by Russian strike in Ukraine, energy company says
Twelve miners have been killed by a Russian drone strike in eastern Ukraine, the country's largest private energy firm has said.

DTEK said a bus carrying workers after a shift in the Dnipropetrovsk region had been targeted in Sunday's attack. At least seven people were injured.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdre7g2je63o
 
High ranking GRU official shot in Moscow.
A senior Russian military official has been rushed to hospital after being shot in Moscow on Friday, state media reported.

Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev was shot several times outside his apartment by an unknown gunman in the north-west of the city and is in critical condition, according to early reports.
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Alexeyev is a deputy director of Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/06/russia-military-general-vladimir-alekseyev
 
Alekseyev also reportedly had connections with Wagner and Prigozhin so maybe this is an inside job and not a Ukrainian hit.
 
Watched Mr Nobody against Putin earlier and would definetly reccomend it. Pretty eye opening and quite sad.
An award ceremony made me laugh when I guessed the winner. Did kinda prove a lot of the stories we hear are true.
 
Stactix said:
Watched Mr Nobody against Putin earlier and would definetly reccomend it. Pretty eye opening and quite sad.
An award ceremony made me laugh when I guessed the winner. Did kinda prove a lot of the stories we hear are true.
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Saw that the other day. Really interesting watch.
 
North Koreans doing additional tasks according to Ukrainian intelligence.

North Korean forces deployed to help Russia’s war against Ukraine are now operating surveillance drones, removing mines and executing artillery strikes, roles that illustrate the advancement in their combat skills after roughly 15 months of involvement in the conflict.
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When North Korean troops first joined Russia’s war effort in 2024, they were deployed in what Western officials described as suicidal waves on the battlefield. Now, they are providing more skilled assistance, according to details released in a Ukrainian military intelligence report this week.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/nort...for-russias-war-on-ukraine-f3cfbf92?st=1gGEBA
 
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