Angarsk, Eastern Siberia
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Oh, well, that might be a bit far for their current capabilities, unless they can somehow stage another of those attacks where they smuggle trailers full of drones deep into Russia. Doubt they'll get that chance again, though.
I follow it more than most and I've never seen a single actual prediction that the Russian economy would have collapsed before now. The earliest guess I've ever seen was 2026 and that was from a Russian economist in exile. Possible... but probably needs at least 1 more winter to kill it off.
It will collapse, of that there's little doubt.
Ukraine claims to have hit 15+ oil tankers in the last couple of days in the Sea of Azov.
Aside from that, there are more refinery strikes.
Aside from that, there are more refinery strikes.
This is a fascinating English-language article on Dutch intelligence during the Russian military buildup. It highlights again that the US and UK had deeper penetration of Putin's circle than the Dutch, French, Germans and other Europeans.
And it also shows that very few people in the Kremlin knew about Putin's real intent to invade. The Dutch were monitoring Russian security officials who themselves didn't know that Putin really intended to invade.
And it also shows that very few people in the Kremlin knew about Putin's real intent to invade. The Dutch were monitoring Russian security officials who themselves didn't know that Putin really intended to invade.
Russia bans diesel export. Measure will be in place until July 31.
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...se-domestic-supply-says-deputy-pm-2026-07-08/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8klree690o
Oh, not what I would expect.
Big news if its true. Short term not much changes, but we can get something up and running in a year, can expect a few hundred interceptors produced a year.
Oh, not what I would expect.
Big news if its true. Short term not much changes, but we can get something up and running in a year, can expect a few hundred interceptors produced a year.
That's gonna eat into their war chest and general economic development further. Excellent.
Not what I would have expected either, and given that it's Pedolf who said it and that it was done before he talked to the manufacturer he might still reverse course on that decision at any moment. But if it really comes to it, then that's pretty big if Ukraine can start production somewhat quickly. The Rheinmetall production line is also planned to start production late this year or 2027, and aims for up to 10000 missiles per year once it's fully going.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but there’s no chance Germany are going to produce 10,000 PAC3s a year.
That’s 50% of the entire German defense budget on interceptor missiles
Germany wouldn't be producing them. Rheinmetall would, if the demand was there. It's an "up to" number they've given, after all, not a fixed one. They're not going to set up production for ten thousand if they've only got buyers for five hundred a year.
Given the efforts they've undertaken with upscaling things like artillery and AA rounds production they've at least shown that they are willing and able to set up some massive increases in production, if the demand is there.
PAC-3's are not 155mm shells.
10,000 is an absurd number per year. That's about 75% of what the US MIC can reasonably produce per year on every missile category combined. It's more than the entire Chinese inventory of strike missiles.
Raytheon and Lockheed have spent billions and billions ramping up PAC-3 production to a few thousand a year.
Where have you seen this?
All things I've found indicate a much lower number on multiple orders of magnitudes lower.
And it's not even PAC-3 MSE, its PAC-2 GEM-T
One last thing, Rheinmetall producing them is an illusion, its Germany producing them. Military procurement doesn't work like that when it comes to export licenses. All production numbers of a 3rd party technology relies on state level agreements between countries (in this case Germany and USA). Things like production rate, total procurement and production numbers has to be agreed by US Congress via the export license.
Private Defense contractors can't just become international arms dealers without explicit approval. In this case if lets say Bulgaria wanted to buy 500 Patriots from Rhinemetall it would require explicit approval from both USA and Germany.
This is a joint investigation from The Insider, Der Spiegel and Le Monde.
Shooting Starlink: The “no limits” partnership between Russia and China is taking aim at Elon Musk
Shooting Starlink: The “no limits” partnership between Russia and China is taking aim at Elon Musk
https://theins.press/en/inv/294635
FT are reporting that 20-40% of Russian refining capacity has been knocked out. Russia has stopped publishing much of the relevant data so these estimates are based on secondary data & media reports.
Brezhnev great-grandson was captured by Ukraine. He was interviewed.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/05...4?shareToken=afd3b0c701c06db7b22a22ed24f2de8a
Yeah, that was interesting. The Dutch got info from a high official on the security council, but the US had someone inside Putin's inner circle. It shows how Putin kept the Ukraine attack very secret - but also how things would go better if intelligence agencies shared just a little more information.
In hindsight this probably should have been a bigger warning signal.
France will licence production to Ukraine. This allows Ukraine to domestically produce the SCALP missile for example.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...les-orders-war-planes-macron-says-2026-07-13/
This patrol ship was used in a 2018 attack on Ukrainian vessels.
Lithuania is warning for Russian attacks on infrastructure. From The Guardian:
Fedorov has been fired by Zelenskyy.
Is there anyone left who can defend Zelenskyy anymore? For feck sake the politiking at this crucial junction is exactly what we don't need.
Is there anyone left who can defend Zelenskyy anymore? For feck sake the politiking at this crucial junction is exactly what we don't need.
Fedorov is out. Why?
Presumably the generals like Syrsky didn't like him and there were interests from the defense industry to remove him because he was strict in his procurement of weapons.
I swear sometimes it feels like Zelensky is deliberately sabotaging Ukraine. Endless re-shuffling of cabinets, keeping Yermak for far too long and so forth.
He's led the defeat of the great Soviet war machine that was supposed to be able to take on NATO. Not that he's dictating military strategy, but he's put into place the people who are. It really isn't difficult to defend him.
Fedorov immediately bragging about his accomplishments, including some things that were in motion long before he got the job, comes across as a bit bitter, egotistical and politicking. I'm sure Zelensky and Ukraine could do without it.
We never know all the details behind these kinds of decisions, but if it really was a choice between Fedorov or Syrskyi then there's only going to be one winner there considering everything Syrskyi has accomplished.
You are literally the only person, in circles of people I know in Ukraine, people who follow the war closely in Europe, people on forums like redcafe and reddit, who is defending this move.
I know, Fedorov has been nothing but praised since he got the job, so its understandable.
I just also know these kind of decisions aren't made without a good reason, and at this kind of level the public never gets to know everything. So its a case of if you give Zelensky the benefit of the doubt or not, personally I think he has earned that right.
Yes - it's called Politiking.
If that was the case then... How does this help him politically?
Aftermath of Ukraine's latest attack...
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.go...38,56.758026187515576&t=2026-07-18-T11:55:08Z
The residential area in the center is Moscow. The 170km long smoke cloud is the result of one of Wildberries ("Russian Amazon") largest warehouses burning down. Selling tactical gear to soldiers makes them a valid target now...
I've read estimates that wares worth about 100 billion rubles / 1 billion euros are burning there.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.go...38,56.758026187515576&t=2026-07-18-T11:55:08Z
The residential area in the center is Moscow. The 170km long smoke cloud is the result of one of Wildberries ("Russian Amazon") largest warehouses burning down. Selling tactical gear to soldiers makes them a valid target now...
I've read estimates that wares worth about 100 billion rubles / 1 billion euros are burning there.
Any chance of Fedorov getting his job back with the protests / when everyone has calmed down a bit?
From what I've read, Syrskyi and Fedorov can't see eye to eye and had both asked for the other's dismissal. So Zelensky can't just bring back Fedorov and that's it.
If common sense prevailed, Syrskyi would be demoted to a staffer role and Zaluzhnyi recalled from his English classes for Beginners in London.
It’s the military, just tell them it doesn’t matter if they get along, just follow orders.
That almost never works out.
No? I’m no military expert but I would think plenty of people don’t like each other at the top of any military.
It always causes huge problems down the line.
Best example I can give is OKH in WWII.
You know how we have this common myth that Hitler was an egomaniac who thought he knew better than his generals and kept firing his best generals and then rehiring them again?
Well, that's a complete myth, perpetuated by German commanders memoirs who all decided to blame Hitler (who was conviniently dead and couldn't defend himself), rather than themselves for the sheer incompetency at the top of OKH.
The Prussian aristocracy that ruled the roost of the German high command were all arrogant sods who kept trying to one up each other (Von Rundstedt, Von Kleist, Von Manstein, Von Brauchtisch although he got permanently fired early on, Von Witzelbeln etc etc). These guys always did everything they could to undermine one another - things like purposefully not putting troops where they would be to make the defense/attack of a rival fail. Purposefully going against operational plans that were sound on paper because it would mean that person would get credit. Constant ultimatums of "If he doesn't get fired, I'll resign" kind of shit.
For example, Guderian reported to Von Kluge. Von Kluge was classical Prussian aristocratic soldier who was quite conservative in nature. Guderian saw himself as a firebrand who was going to revolutionize the way war was fought. During 1941, Guderian constantly disobeyed orders by pulling wishy washy shit. For example, on one instance, Kluge gave Guderian the order to "stay put". Guderian asked for permission to conduct reconaissance missions which was given. Guderian ended up advancing 60km in 2 days with multiple Panzer Divisions and in the reports going back to Kluge he wrote, "I am conducting reconaissance missions in force with my Panzer Divisions. It is not my fault that the Soviet lines collapsed when I was conducting them." Since 1941 Kluge lobbied Franz Halder and OKH to fire Guderian, and eventually he got his wish.
Von Rundstedt and Rommel hated each other. Rundstedt wanted the tanks in land to counterattack D-day, Rommel wanted them on the coast. They couldn't agree to anything so Hitler eventually had to intercede and take personal decisions overrulling both of them. Obviously that went down terribly but the fact is he had to step in because his two commanders on the Western front couldn't get along. Like babysitting children.
Von Manstein was constantly undermined by Franz Halder due to a personal rivalry. Halder felt that Manstein was a threat. Manstein was the one who proposed the 1940 operation plan to invade France and Halder rejected it on the basis that it was Manstein who devised it. He then fired Manstein. His alternative plan was so terrible, Hitler saw it and told him to feck off and bring me something else. Multiple times Halder proposed things to Hitler and Hitler laughed him out the room. It was only when one of the OKW staffers put in Hitler's ear about Manstein's plan, was that the operational plan. Halder had to bring Manstein back into the fold and was an utter humiliation for him that lasted throughout the war. He would purposefully hold back resources from Manstein despite Manstein often being given the most crucial commands, most critical frontlines to manage.
Hitler constantly fired generals not because he thought he knew better, but because he was constantly in the middle of stupid bickering between competing generals and personal relationship fallouts. He often fired people not because he thought they were incompetent but because others hated them so much he had no choice. Others annoyed him so much that he got rid of them just to cease the incessant moaning and bitching.
So yeah, tl;dr: Top military brass hating each other has terrible outcomes.
I think just last month they've changed the deal with their suppliers (one-way, as monopolists do) that they aren't held accountable for any potential losses in case of a drone/rocket strike. Just a daily reminder of the greatness of capitalism on top of the awful realities of war.
Couple of days ago Ukraine claimed it struck a Tu95 bomber. Imagery confirms it. Tail section broke off.
Ukrainian commander in chief Syrsky replaced by Drapatiy. Very big development.