Russian invasion of Ukraine

From all my readings, Syrsky had become a toxic figure. Drapatyi on the other hand seems widely respected.

This seems a good development on paper but it remains to be seen if Drapatyi gets to be able to reform the military or whether he is blocked behind the scenes anyway. Ukrainian domestic politics is kinda toxic but the people went out on the streets to protest the Fedorov sacking and it seemed to change Zelensky's mind.

Hopefully this brings a little bit more morale and hope to Ukraine to have Drapatyi leading the military.
 
Does that mean Fedorov can come back now? Or why else would this be happening?
 
First official acknowledgement? I haven't seen Ukraine claim this. There was a Su35 downed recently but only Russian sources hinted at the involvement of an F-16 to my recall.

 
Can't wrap my had around the whole Syrskyi affair personally.

This guy led the defence of Kyiv, holding off the full force of Russia's initial invasion when the entire world had written Ukraine off, before pushing them back to the border within 3 months. He then planned and led the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. He then led the defence of Bakhmut, bogging the Russians down there for over a year, effectively destroying the Wagner Group and kickstarting a coup within Russia.

In the top job he's then led what appears to be a very successful defensive war of attrition that has brought Russia to its knees. He somehow transferred that defence onto Russian territory for 9 months, soaking up everything Russia threw at them down very predictable paths before they finally recruited North Korea & help from their US agents to dislodge them.

We're just starting to see the fruit of his labours and he gets removed by some political rift... I suppose being Russian born was always going to be a issue and have things turn out this way, makes him an easy target. Dare to mention he might actually be good at his job and there will always be some talking head pop up to say how actually this other guy deserves the credit, so perhaps he's just the luckiest general in human history, because he might be one of the most accomplished.

I often waste time on t'internet trying to convince people of what Ukraine's strategy is, because its not obvious to some and doesn't get spoken about in the media or with bloggers. Turns out after listening to a few of Syrskyi's interviews over the last few years, he's been quite open about it. He talks about maximising Russian casualties for minimum Ukrainian losses, destroying the Russian economy and revolutionising technology and innovation. Ironically his detractors accuse him of doing the opposite of all that, but what we've seen with our own eyes under his tenure is clearly what he says, not what his critics say, that's what I'm having difficulty with. Some of accusations are ludicrous, basically accusing him of acting like the worse of the Soviet Russian commanders he's fighting. Classic projection and a hallmark of Russian interference. I've even seen popular Ukrainian bloggers suggest he might be a spy... Its truly frightening how gullible people are to Russia's information war.

Russia will be celebrating tonight, at least something to take their mind off the fact they've just had to suspend all domestic bond auctions, their only source of funding their massive deficits these last couple years... Its going to be one hell of a rough winter for them. They are so so f*cked and I can't wait for the world to wake up and realise it.
 
Simbo said:
Can't wrap my had around the whole Syrskyi affair personally.

This guy led the defence of Kyiv, holding off the full force of Russia's initial invasion when the entire world had written Ukraine off, before pushing them back to the border within 3 months. He then planned and led the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. He then led the defence of Bakhmut, bogging the Russians down there for over a year, effectively destroying the Wagner Group and kickstarting a coup within Russia.

In the top job he's then led what appears to be a very successful defensive war of attrition that has brought Russia to its knees. He somehow transferred that defence onto Russian territory for 9 months, soaking up everything Russia threw at them down very predictable paths before they finally recruited North Korea & help from their US agents to dislodge them.

We're just starting to see the fruit of his labours and he gets removed by some political rift... I suppose being Russian born was always going to be a issue and have things turn out this way, makes him an easy target. Dare to mention he might actually be good at his job and there will always be some talking head pop up to say how actually this other guy deserves the credit, so perhaps he's just the luckiest general in human history, because he might be one of the most accomplished.

I often waste time on t'internet trying to convince people of what Ukraine's strategy is, because its not obvious to some and doesn't get spoken about in the media or with bloggers. Turns out after listening to a few of Syrskyi's interviews over the last few years, he's been quite open about it. He talks about maximising Russian casualties for minimum Ukrainian losses, destroying the Russian economy and revolutionising technology and innovation. Ironically his detractors accuse him of doing the opposite of all that, but what we've seen with our own eyes under his tenure is clearly what he says, not what his critics say, that's what I'm having difficulty with. Some of accusations are ludicrous, basically accusing him of acting like the worse of the Soviet Russian commanders he's fighting. Classic projection and a hallmark of Russian interference. I've even seen popular Ukrainian bloggers suggest he might be a spy... Its truly frightening how gullible people are to Russia's information war.

Russia will be celebrating tonight, at least something to take their mind off the fact they've just had to suspend all domestic bond auctions, their only source of funding their massive deficits these last couple years... Its going to be one hell of a rough winter for them. They are so so f*cked and I can't wait for the world to wake up and realise it.
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This is utterly delusional.

I don't even know where to begin with this. Your takes are so bizarre - quite literally your takes are so unique I don't know a single other person anywhere who has these views.

I've been banging on about how Syrskyi was an absolute moron for years and years.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
This is utterly delusional.

I don't even know where to begin with this. Your takes are so bizarre - quite literally your takes are so unique I don't know a single other person anywhere who has these views.

I've been banging on about how Syrskyi was an absolute moron for years and years.
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Perhaps you should explain again.
 
TwoSheds said:
Perhaps you should explain again.
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Where do I begin.

The guy is super paranoid and the worst type of micro-manager: Last year the commander of the 59th Brigade resigned in protest over Syryski. He interviewed with local press about the reasons why. In his defence of the line, Syryski was at times, managing individual companies of his brigade. That is absolutely insane. This is Erwin Rommel levels of micromanagement that a fecking head of armed forces should be doing. This isn't something a General should be doing, this isn't something a brigadier general should be doing, this is literally the job of a Major. This is even beyond that of a Colonel. The fecking head of AFU is micromanaging individual companies in a battle. Multiple commanders have complained to the Ukrainian press about his micro-management.

His nepotism is absurd. He's filled the general staff with people he trusts. The problem is all the people he trusts are relics from the Soviet days. It's very difficult to switch an institutional mindset away from certain behaviours and a lot of the stuff he does is just 1980's tactics of deep penetration (without any of the resources that the soviet union had). This results is really awful casualties. This isn't Russian misinformation. Even prior to his promotion, his men nicknamed him the butcher.

Another officer posted on X that Syrskyi's leadership "is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralizing, and he undermines trust in the command in general. His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind.”
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Then you have his blatant politiking. He basically doesn't have the trust of the brigade and wider group composition commanders so what does he do? He raises new brigades, strips existing units of their manpower and their fighting capacity and installs his close friends as commanders, whom are underqualified, unvetted and poor performing.

Some of them have literally become warlords. Let's take an example, the 155th Kyiv brigade.

https://kyivindependent.com/command...t-155th-brigade-wanted-for-kidnapping-murder/

Syryski raised this brigade in 2024 and installed his friend Luchanov as its commander. It was revealed Luchanov was literally using his soldiers to kidnap and murder people in Kyiv due to personal conflicts. That's literally warlord behaviour. He's now "MIA" and a bunch of his soldiers have been arrested.

Or how Harkavyi, commander of the 425th was literally given a Hero of Ukraine award by Syryski and now there's talk that the unit was killing it's own men who were deemed "unworthy."

Fedorov wanted to fire a bunch of people in the Ukrainian military industrial complex, which Syryski blocked and veto'ed, because they were mates of his. Fedorov were investigating them for corruption and pay to play schemes. There are widespread reports (though unconfirmed) of ghost soldiers that the AFU is taking, where soldiers exist only on paper (bit like the ANA). Investigations are supposed to get underway soon about this. This is all under Syryski.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Where do I begin.

The guy is super paranoid and the worst type of micro-manager: Last year the commander of the 59th Brigade resigned in protest over Syryski. He interviewed with local press about the reasons why. In his defence of the line, Syryski was at times, managing individual companies of his brigade. That is absolutely insane. This is Erwin Rommel levels of micromanagement that a fecking head of armed forces should be doing. This isn't something a General should be doing, this isn't something a brigadier general should be doing, this is literally the job of a Major. This is even beyond that of a Colonel. The fecking head of AFU is micromanaging individual companies in a battle. Multiple commanders have complained to the Ukrainian press about his micro-management.

His nepotism is absurd. He's filled the general staff with people he trusts. The problem is all the people he trusts are relics from the Soviet days. It's very difficult to switch an institutional mindset away from certain behaviours and a lot of the stuff he does is just 1980's tactics of deep penetration (without any of the resources that the soviet union had). This results is really awful casualties. This isn't Russian misinformation. Even prior to his promotion, his men nicknamed him the butcher.



Then you have his blatant politiking. He basically doesn't have the trust of the brigade and wider group composition commanders so what does he do? He raises new brigades, strips existing units of their manpower and their fighting capacity and installs his close friends as commanders, whom are underqualified, unvetted and poor performing.

Some of them have literally become warlords. Let's take an example, the 155th Kyiv brigade.

https://kyivindependent.com/command...t-155th-brigade-wanted-for-kidnapping-murder/

Syryski raised this brigade in 2024 and installed his friend Luchanov as its commander. It was revealed Luchanov was literally using his soldiers to kidnap and murder people in Kyiv due to personal conflicts. That's literally warlord behaviour. He's now "MIA" and a bunch of his soldiers have been arrested.

Or how Harkavyi, commander of the 425th was literally given a Hero of Ukraine award by Syryski and now there's talk that the unit was killing it's own men who were deemed "unworthy."

Fedorov wanted to fire a bunch of people in the Ukrainian military industrial complex, which Syryski blocked and veto'ed, because they were mates of his. Fedorov were investigating them for corruption and pay to play schemes. There are widespread reports (though unconfirmed) of ghost soldiers that the AFU is taking, where soldiers exist only on paper (bit like the ANA). Investigations are supposed to get underway soon about this. This is all under Syryski.
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Thank you for explaining, it does indeed sound like a colossal mess.
 
Completely anecdotal but my partner is Ukrainian and has many friends in the military now. She says every single one of them agrees with the stereotype of Syrskyi as an old-fashioned, highly corrupt soviet general, fond of meatgrinder tactics and resistant to any strategic reforms, as he's personally too entrenched in the current system.

Fedorov is universally respected and liked by everyone in the younger generations, following his work in the digital transformation of the country (I can attest to that personally - I've lived in 4 european countries and Ukraine is much more advanced than any of them in that aspect), as well as the reforms he started in the military procurement and infantry compensation.
 
It feels a lot as if Syrsky and Fedorov clashed too much about old vs new way and now Selensky got rid of them both to make peace. Sacking only Fedorov obviously was a mistake, but sacking Syrsky might balance that a bit.
 
Looking like this may have been drones going to Russia or Russian arms going to Iran. Either case, Trump will probably like this.

 
Mearsheimer never disappoints. Probably the leading reason why people mistakenly got the impression Russia was winning.

 
Two children among eight dead in Russian strikes on Ukraine, officials say
Eight people, including two children, have died during a Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, according to local officials.
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Two girls, aged 5 and 12, were among the six killed in a village near the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih when a ballistic missile hit a private house, a local official said.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8mk59l5jzo
 
Raoul said:
Mearshimer never disappoints. Probably the leading reason why people mistakenly got the impression Russia was winning.

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So embarrassing. Yet the same losers in online media will wheel him out again and claim he is some sort of expert on the matter, depressing.
 
Almost close to a quarter of a million confirmed Russians killed. Mediazona's latest update of recorded names stands at 236,000.
https://en.zona.media/article/2026/07/31/casualties_eng-trl

Note that the above is a confirmed count. They have a 2nd count that's a statistical estimate based on probate registry data, that one stands at 352,000 (but only up to 2025 data).
 
Raoul said:
Mearsheimer never disappoints. Probably the leading reason why people mistakenly got the impression Russia was winning.

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Mearsheimer was plainly wrong in February 2022 about whether Russia would invade. But this montage then cheats by treating every prediction that has not yet resolved as another proven failure. It also misstates his January 2024 claim, which was that a renewed Ukrainian offensive was unrealistic, not that Ukraine could not hold any line.

Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine is not the same thing as Ukraine winning the war, you know that. Moscow still occupies roughly a fifth of the country, while the eventual military and political outcome remains unsettled. You can/should criticize Mearsheimer for what he actually got wrong, but there is no need to manufacture the rest.
 
Suedesi said:
Mearsheimer was plainly wrong in February 2022 about whether Russia would invade. But this montage then cheats by treating every prediction that has not yet resolved as another proven failure. It also misstates his January 2024 claim, which was that a renewed Ukrainian offensive was unrealistic, not that Ukraine could not hold any line.

Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine is not the same thing as Ukraine winning the war, you know that. Moscow still occupies roughly a fifth of the country, while the eventual military and political outcome remains unsettled. You can/should criticize Mearsheimer for what he actually got wrong, but there is no need to manufacture the rest.
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The conventional wisdom was that Russia would take Ukraine within days of invading. That has failed and they've had about 1.4m battlefield casualties over 4.5 years of accomplishing nothing. Therefore Mearsheimer has been wrong all along and there are zero indications that will change given all the successes Ukraine are having in taking the war onto Russian territory.
 
Raoul said:
The conventional wisdom was that Russia would take Ukraine within days of invading. That has failed and they've had about 1.4m battlefield casualties over 4.5 years of accomplishing nothing. Therefore Mearsheimer has been wrong all along and there are zero indications that will change given all the successes Ukraine are having in taking the war onto Russian territory.
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I think you're conflating Mearsheimer with broader "conventional wisdom" among Western + Russian officials who expected Kyiv to fall quickly. Where and when did Mearsheimer actually predict that?

On the eve of the invasion, he was arguing that Putin would probably not invade, partly because Moscow lacked the necessary forces needed to conquer and occupy Ukraine. He was plainly wrong about that prediciton, but he was never part of the “Russia will take Ukraine within days” conventional wisom you’re now falsely pinning on him.

Again, criticize the prediction he actually made. That one was wrong. Don’t assign him somebody else’s forecast and then declare it disproven. And “wrong all along” still doesn’t follow. Being wrong about whether the invasion would happen is a separate question from whether his later assessment of the attritional balance ultimately proves right or wrong. That part is still unresolved.
 
Suedesi said:
I think you're conflating Mearsheimer with broader "conventional wisdom" among Western + Russian officials who expected Kyiv to fall quickly. Where and when did Mearsheimer actually predict that?

On the eve of the invasion, he was arguing that Putin would probably not invade, partly because Moscow lacked the necessary forces needed to conquer and occupy Ukraine. He was plainly wrong about that prediciton, but he was never part of the “Russia will take Ukraine within days” conventional wisom you’re now falsely pinning on him.

Again, criticize the prediction he actually made. That one was wrong. Don’t assign him somebody else’s forecast and then declare it disproven. And “wrong all along” still doesn’t follow. Being wrong about whether the invasion would happen is a separate question from whether his later assessment of the attritional balance ultimately proves right or wrong. That part is still unresolved.
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Mearsheimer falls into that same group of people who lean towards Russia's preferred narrative. He's been on all the usual shows triumphantly predicting Ukraine's demise for 4.5 years and it hasn't happend - in fact, we're beginning to see the opposite happen. Russia are getting hammered at home, many are fleeing Crimea, and the Russian economy is in worse shape with each passing day. Even Trump has recently warmed to Zelenskyy because he likes to get behind a winner, which is exactly what Ukraine are doing against Russia right now by way of relentlessly hitting Putin's domestic war infrastructure.
 
There was a bomb attack at an upmarket restaurant in central Moscow this afternoon at which several people were killed. While details remain sketchy, there are reports that it was a birthday celebration for a general. No confirmation yet as to who was killed and so far no English language reports that I can find.
 
MoskvaRed said:
There was a bomb attack at an upmarket restaurant in central Moscow this afternoon at which several people were killed. While details remain sketchy, there are reports that it was a birthday celebration for a general. No confirmation yet as to who was killed and so far no English language reports that I can find.
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There are videos on twitter showing someone's severed limb in the middle of the road - about 50 meters from the restaurant
 
MoskvaRed said:
There was a bomb attack at an upmarket restaurant in central Moscow this afternoon at which several people were killed. While details remain sketchy, there are reports that it was a birthday celebration for a general. No confirmation yet as to who was killed and so far no English language reports that I can find.
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They’re (the antiterrorist department) already saying that it was an IED.
 
Apparently they got this guy. Sounds like a Ukrainian hit against a senior Russian officer.

 
What are the chances that UKR targets Putin's massive house near the Black Sea? It seems like a lot of the Russian targets are within their scope to hit.
Or maybe that'd be counter-productive to hit that?
 
utdalltheway said:
What are the chances that UKR targets Putin's massive house near the Black Sea? It seems like a lot of the Russian targets are within their scope to hit.
Or maybe that'd be counter-productive to hit that?
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What would be the benefit of that particular action? How much of the enemies' forces and resources does it take out/incapacitate?

Ukraine's long distance efforts have been focused on disrupting Russia's war logistics and economy. Seems like much more productive than targeting an empty place.
 
Krakenzero said:
What would be the benefit of that particular action? How much of the enemies' forces and resources does it take out/incapacitate?

Ukraine's long distance efforts have been focused on disrupting Russia's war logistics and economy. Seems like much more productive than targeting an empty place.
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Yeah, unless Putin decides to divert some of the air defense he has been hoarding there elsewhere there's no point in sending anything after the place. And even then only enough to make him send the air defenses right back there where they can gather moss doing nothing.

They'd piss him off but achieve nothing of actual value. Better to send valuable attacks against targets that truly matter.
 
Psychological win I suppose. Sends a message to Putin, the Ukrainians, the world.

I get what you guys are saying though, makes sense
 
utdalltheway said:
Psychological win I suppose. Sends a message to Putin, the Ukrainians, the world.

I get what you guys are saying though, makes sense
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That residence is in the "middle of nowhere" compared to the big cities. Smoke clouds over Moscow or St Petersburg send a message to more people, especially when it happens during events like the economic forum in St Petersburg.
 
Raoul said:
Apparently they got this guy. Sounds like a Ukrainian hit against a senior Russian officer.

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I'm seeing conflicting reports on this one. One report says it was a woman that tried to carry the bomb in, but she was stopped at the entry by security.
5 dead but not the Russian senior officer.
Any other info?
 
Its getting increasingly difficult for Russian vehicles to move around anywhere in Ukraine these days. Once can only imagine how often this is happening elsewhere.

 
Raoul said:
Its getting increasingly difficult for Russian vehicles to move around anywhere in Ukraine these days. Once can only imagine how often this is happening elsewhere.

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It is great to see Ukraine taking the fight to well inside Russia.
 
Russian drone operators have been targeting Kherson civilians for a long while. It's been described as a human safari. Here is a vivid example of it.

 
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