Christ, that's grim.
You'd be wondering why he didn't do this or that, but really what could he do?
You'd be wondering why he didn't do this or that, but really what could he do?
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
That’s still not what Mearsheimer predicted. He has never said Russia would conquer all of Ukraine or wipe it off the map. His argument has been that Russia would end up holding a large amount of territory, Ukraine would survive but be badly weakened, and the war would eventually freeze because neither side could win outright.
The real test is simple: does Ukraine take back the occupied land and force Russia to accept defeat, or does the war freeze with Russia still holding about 20% of Ukraine? Until that happens, we do not know whether JM is right or wrong.
That hasn’t happened either. In fact the opposite is transpiring right now. It’s Putin’s Russia that has been severely weakened. Bottom line, he’s been guessing all along based on the reality he would like to be true.
Where and when did he say those things because at the start of the war and after Bakhmut fell I thought he seemed way more positive about the outcome/prospects for Russia.
Many times. As early as June 2023. JM wrote that a meaningful peace agreement wasn't possible and that a frozen conflict with Russia holding substantial territory and Ukraine surviving in a weakened state was the likeliest outcome. He's basically repeated that over and over; frozen clonfilct i.e. ceasefire without real lasting peace
I think that's too sweeping. Russia has clearly been weakened, but Ukraine has also been devastated and still hasn’t liberated the occupied territory.
The basic record is: Ukraine won the opening campaign in ’22, failed to break through in ’23, lost ground slowly in ’24–25, and has mostly stabilized the front YTD in ’26. Russia still holds about 20% of Ukraine.
So Mearsheimer may still turn out to be wrong, but so far the war looks closer to the ugly stalemate he predicted.
He’s still a highly respected figure in international relations. It’s perfectly fair to disagree with him but saying he’s just guessing toward the outcome he wants feels a little unfair. Either way we’ll see how it actually plays out.
No, no he isn't.
He's respected by 3rd-Worldists and Anti-Westerners because he repeats, espouses and echoes their views.
There are hundreds of professors who are contracted by the State department/DoD and various other federal agencies for consulting work on geopolitical strategy and international relations. Mearschemier has never once been approached for a federal government consulting job. The last time Mearscheimer had any tangential impact on US policy was the 1970s....when he interned in the federal government.
Well yes, they are at war and both sides tend to get weakened over time if things drag on for 5 years. But when you look at it from a strategic level, it was Russia who were viewed as vastly more powerful at the very beginning, so their getting hit every day at home is a pretty good indicator that it’s they who are taking more damage in the present. We already know how much Ukraine has been damaged since the war is largely taking place in their territory.
Again heavy strikes on Kyiv, at least 15 dead.
not a single missile was shot down.
Does that mean they've basically no Patriots left?
North Korean missile unit deploys in Russia for Ukraine war, Kyiv says
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...loys-russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-says-2026-08-05/
they are very close to that point. 4 days ago they shot down only 1 missile, tonight not a single one.
but that's what Zelensky said anyway so it's hardly a secret.
No missiles for Patriots rather than no Patriots but it makes no difference on the ground.
That's not good. Leaves Ukraine an open target. I guess Russia finally cracked Western support.
Russia has precious little to do with that. Patriot missile production was located pretty much entirely in the USA, only recently has some diversification been starting. So when the USA kicked off the war with Iran, they used up huge numbers of their own interceptors and also called dibs on the production to replace their spent stocks.
Ah I assumed that Western Countries would have surplus amounts that they could supply Ukraine with. My bad.
Drone was seen near a Ukrainian plane in Leipzig airport. Possibly with explosives.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...rt-disrupted-after-suspicious-objects-sighted
During this incident, a DHL cargo plane also hit an unidentified object in air. German authorities are investigating whether the runway drone and the DHL collision are linked.
A lot of German papers seem to be behind a paywall. Maybe our German posters can share some of the German reporting. It looks like a very serious incident that hints at sabotage.
Apparently a drone with explosives says the media. Not much more information besides the already shared one available as of now.
German paper Zeit reported today that German defense contractor Stefan Thumann, who supplies drones to Ukraine, was followed by Russian intelligence and potentially an assassination target.
Mearsheimer is a distinguished University of Chicago professor, an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the recipient of APSA’s James Madison Award for a distinguished scholarly contribution to political science.
“The State Department hasn’t hired him” is not a measure of academic credibility, you sausage. That’s an absurd standard, especially for someone who has spent decades criticizing US foreign policy. Governments generally consult people whose advice aligns with their policy goals anyway. You can reject Mearsheimer’s arguments, but pretending one of the most prominent realist scholars in the field is respected only by “Third-Worldists and anti-Westerners” is plain nonsense.
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Yeah, that's fair. Russia entered the war with overwhelming advantages, so the fact that Ukraine can now hit refineries, bases and logistics deep inside Russia on a daily basis is a sign of how much the balance has shifted
Leipzig drone failed to detonate.
They had years ago. That's all been used up by now. It's urgent for Ukraine to finalize development of their own new interceptor which FirePoint is actively developing and entered a joint venture with Diehl (who provide the IRIS-T system).
1. Russia are still viewed as the vastly more powerful by everyone but those pushing the “we are winning” strategy to keep dragging the war on, and keep the money flowing;
2. Getting hit everyday at home is not a “pretty good indicator” of anything, just an escalation of the war. Are you seriously saying that Russia is taking more damage to their military and industrial infrastructure than the Ukraine? The Ukraine has resorted to bombing online retailer warehouses for the optics and the hopium.
The Ukraine is done, they have sold off their resources, lost a lot of their fertile lands, lost access to maritime trade, are hundreds of billions in debt (those weren’t gifts), and are facing a demographic disaster. All for the promise of EU and NATO membership.
If the war stopped now, which is the best case scenario for Ukraine, they would still collapse and be sold off bit by bit to western corporations, which from their perspective isn’t a bad consolation prize
"All for the promise of EU and NATO membership"
Actually they're resisting against an illegal invader.
Currently that is the case, yes.
And I suppose Putin woke up one day and didn’t have anything better to do than invade Ukraine? Decades of NATO expansionism, the overthrow of a democratically elected president by a US-backed coup, and the oppression of the the population of the Donbas, had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Nice to know you support Russian imperialism. I guess we can invade eachother when we feel like the other country's domestic affairs aren't developing in a way that we like, right? Nevermind that you are spouting BS.
You're like those pro-Israeli nutters who make excuses over and over again for Israel's terror against the Palestinians but in this case it's Russia.
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What do you base this on? Have you seen the amount of damage being taken by Ukraine or only going by what you are fed by the western media, which can be summed up as “Russia is bombing residential areas and hospitals, Ukraine is bombing distilleries and military facilities”.
At the very least find some sources which don’t subscribe to the same narrative and agenda, I know it’s difficult at first, cognitive dissonance is very real, but the whole story will start to make more sense, rather than the patchwork of spin you are currently trying to make sense of. You will definitely getting a distorted view on both sides, but your opinion willl be better formed than just listening to one side’s propaganda.
Deep throating that Russian propaganda.
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Sad story. This man, Yukov, retrieved bodies from both Ukrainians and Russians. He was a very respected figure. Saw him in a documentary some time ago. He said he had recovered thousands of bodies. He was very passionate about providing closure to families by bringing back the bodies of the fallen.
Pray tell when Ukraine wanted to join NATO.
The whole thing that triggered 2013/2014 overthrow of the government was the government backed out of proposals to begin integration to the EU, that the parliament voted for by absolute majority, due to Russian pressure. You know, the thing that Yanukovych ran his presidential campaign on?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10229626
You know, this whole bullshit about NATO encroachment can literally be called out on by quite frankly just looking at the official government positions which was "No NATO, we want EU"
US backed coup, oh ffs not this shite again.
People went to protest because Yanukovych's government fecking shot kids who were protesting.
Literally prior to that people didn't really give a shit, Euromaidan at that point were a few thousand die-hard pro EU students aged 16-24 who the rest of the population ignored and thought they were cranks.
Only when the government decided to fecking shoot them that the people went out in force and doubled down. You can lie about wanting to join the EU, completely deny and ignore parliamentary votes on EU integration, but to shoot kids who protested that? That's what caused the escalation to millions on the streets.
It wasn't a fecking coup.
"Ignore sources until I can find one that supports my world view" Very unbiased of you.
Are Russia not bombing residential areas and hospitals? Are FPV operators in Kherson not taking pleasure in hunting down market traders?
Wow, this thread has been massively productive for my ignore list. Another name for the list. Zero interest in pandering or engaging with anyone spouting Russian propaganda. Giving them a platform only validates and normalizes their viewpoint.
Over 42000 Russian casualties in July. Highest of the war so far.
Ukrainians producing more drones and missiles than ever. Western financial backing remains fours years into to the two week special military operation.
All for a war to stop NATO encroachment, which it should be remembered, has pushed Sweden and bordering country Finland into joining.
Winningest war ever.
Its actually the opposite of everything you said. Let's not forget Russia were supposed to sweep through Ukraine in days and take over the entire country. Remember that ? Hows that going five years on and 1.5 million casualties later ?
People still believing that the invasion of Ukraine was because of some NATO "expansionism" are clear proof at least one Russian export is still highly effective: Propaganda.
Take that Russophobes!
Take that Russophobes!
They're extremely dedicated and good at it. Went down a rabbit hole of reading a long thread on Reddit about Russia's newest fighter plane on a sleepless night. Several posters were espousing how incredibly superior said aircraft was to anything the West could produce and arguments to the contrary were met with nonsensical arguments. But there was one poster in particular who was incredibly detailed and argumentative to such a degree that I got a bit interested in seeing his post history. Normally it's easily blocked in the new Reddit but if you go the old one you can still search after their posts. Was not surprised to see that they were all dedicated on enhancing the russian pov and critical of Ukraine, the EU and the new Pope for some reason. If said poster was an amateur, he had a lot of free time on his hands and encyclopaedic knowledge on every weapons system known to man.