Russian invasion of Ukraine

TwoSheds

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Technically no, but still the external borders are EU borders and the sovereignty over these borders is de facto a collective one. Frontex runs on a €500 Million budget in order to help the member states manage their external borders.

Still, I think it is a smart move by Lithuania. It puts Kaliningrad on the agenda and forces EU states to take a position on it. Public opinion is not against putting more pressure on Russia.
They're not EU borders FFS, they're Lithuanian. If an individual nation wants to close their border to non-EU citizens or goods (believing they're complying with EC sanctions let's not forget) they are, and always have been, perfectly within their rights to do so.
 

Pintu

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They're not EU borders FFS, they're Lithuanian.
They are both (Schengen borders code).

If an individual nation wants to close their border to non-EU citizens or goods (believing they're complying with EC sanctions let's not forget) they are, and always have been, perfectly within their rights to do so.
That's probably true. I didn't dispute it, I'm saying what they believe isn't necessarily what other countries believe to be the correct interpretation of these sanctions.
 

Pintu

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But does that apply to an EU / non-EU border?
It is a gray area. Technically Member states can do as they please with their borders (national security..), they can temporarily close internal borders in exceptional circumstances. But they are supposed to manage the external borders in compliance with the common rules. For example, since US citizens are entitled to visa-free entry to the EU, all countries should welcome them. Spain can't unilaterally ban visitors from the US or require a visa.

The EU agreements with non-EU states (including the EU-Russia Kaliningrad partnership) are binding for all countries, and they are supposed to facilitate them, not counteract them. Unless the sanctions, in this case, are suspending that agreement entirely, then Lithuania would be right...
 

Carolina Red

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It is a gray area. Technically Member states can do as they please with their borders (national security..), they can temporarily close internal borders in exceptional circumstances. But they are supposed to manage the external borders in compliance with the common rules. For example, since US citizens are entitled to visa-free entry to the EU, all countries should welcome them. Spain can't unilaterally ban visitors from the US or require a visa.

The EU agreements with non-EU states (including the EU-Russia Kaliningrad partnership) are binding for all countries, and they are supposed to facilitate them, not counteract them. Unless the sanctions, in this case, are suspending that agreement entirely, then Lithuania would be right...
Well, according to Josep Borrell, the EU high rep for foreign affairs, Lithuania is simply applying the EU sanctions to their border with Russia.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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More takes about sovereignty:

My personal response to that two-faced degenerate and living shame to her uniform:

....................../´¯/)
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............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸
........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
.........\.................'...../
..........''...\.......... _.·´
............\..............(
..............\.............\...
 

Rajma

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It's a bit more complicated than this. If Lithuania was imposing their own sanctions on Russia/Kaliningrad it would be their own policies, and nobody can say anything about it. Here, they say it is about applying EU sanctions to Kaliningrad, which is a rather specific interpretation of these sanctions. And it is exposing all of the EU to some kind of retaliation from Russia. If Lithuania wants to impose a blockade on Kaliningrad on behalf of the EU, the rest of the EU has to agree on it first.
It’s not specific interpretation, it’s current version of sanctions and this decision was made in consultation with European Commission. What Germany now pushes is the change to the current legal wording of these sanctions. Either way the optics are very bad for the EU if they decide to go back on this and will only embolden Putin to make threats in the future. Also, there’s going to be no blockade of any kind as Russia can ship/fly in the goods it would be more expensive sure, but that’s the whole point to make the war very expensive for Russia?
 
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MadMike

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Lysychansk unfortunately looks a lost cause now, as well.

The above update was an hour and a half ago. In the last 20 mins pro-Russian twitter accounts are reporting a full encirclement of the city with some videos of troops entering parts of the city from the west side.

 

Dante

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This guy's Youtube channel is probably the most reliable commentary I've found on this war. He's so much more balanced than you get elsewhere (including this thread), and he doesn't seem to fall into usual the traps of sensationalism or propaganda. I think he specialism is actually military procurement/finances rather than actual combat. But he still knows his onions.

His video on Germany's military their involvement and what they can realistically do to help Ukraine. I'd recommend it if you have some free time (although it's probably best to watch it on 2x speed).
 
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VorZakone

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I mean, we've been hearing the 'limits' of Russian military power for a long time now. They'd be running out of missiles, manpower, you name it. How is that reflected on the battlefield?
 

Frosty

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I mean, we've been hearing the 'limits' of Russian military power for a long time now. They'd be running out of missiles, manpower, you name it. How is that reflected on the battlefield?
From what I know, a continual drawing down of reserves, and moving lost materiel from other combat units. The guy I quoted is Defence Correspondent for the Kyiv Independent and therefore his views should be treated with caution.

I follow Michael Kofman who is good on a strategic picture: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael

He has a recent podcast here talking about the current war of attrition and how it may play out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/ukraine-and-russia-grapple-with-relentless-battle-and-attrition/
 

Pintu

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I mean, we've been hearing the 'limits' of Russian military power for a long time now. They'd be running out of missiles, manpower, you name it. How is that reflected on the battlefield?
We've also been hearing the Russian version and it is much further away from the truth. It is highly unlikely that Russia can sustain the ongoing war of attrition.
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
What's the indication that this has anything to do with Russia? Seems like they would do a bit more than advertise their NFTs.
Sorry that was meant as partly tongue in cheek. An investigation has started but if it isn't Russian state agents or sympathetic hackers, it is slightly concerning that anything related to the Army is that vulnerable.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Those feckers are leaving no stone unturned when it comes to mandatory military service in the context of this war. Among ice hockey fans, this news came up yesterday.

Reports: Flyers prospect Fedotov detained in Russia for allegedly evading military duties

Ivan Fedotov is a star goalie who just won the Gagarin Cup for CSKA Moscow. And now his lawyer can't even find his whereabouts according to Newsweek. That is really just sick; it would be as if the US government forced Wilt Chamberlain to serve in the army with the possibility of him going to the Vietnam War.
 

NM

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Those feckers are leaving no stone unturned when it comes to mandatory military service in the context of this war. Among ice hockey fans, this news came up yesterday.

Reports: Flyers prospect Fedotov detained in Russia for allegedly evading military duties

Ivan Fedotov is a star goalie who just won the Gagarin Cup for CSKA Moscow. And now his lawyer can't even find his whereabouts according to Newsweek. That is really just sick; it would be as if the US government forced Wilt Chamberlain to serve in the army with the possibility of him going to the Vietnam War.
I mean.. the US government did try to jail Muhammad Ali for it.. or they might have jailed him.. so the US isn't that different here tbh
 

nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
Sorry that was meant as partly tongue in cheek. An investigation has started but if it isn't Russian state agents or sympathetic hackers, it is slightly concerning that anything related to the Army is that vulnerable.
Gotcha! It's definitely concerning. And weird. I'm not sure you can really hack Twitter in that sense. Almost all of the time, when someone has their Twitter account "hacked", it just means they didn't have two-factor authentication on and misplaced their password somehow.
 

4bars

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From what I know, a continual drawing down of reserves, and moving lost materiel from other combat units. The guy I quoted is Defence Correspondent for the Kyiv Independent and therefore his views should be treated with caution.

I follow Michael Kofman who is good on a strategic picture: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael

He has a recent podcast here talking about the current war of attrition and how it may play out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/ukraine-and-russia-grapple-with-relentless-battle-and-attrition/
I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
I prefer the academic analysis. Nothing wrong with someone making an incorrect prediction and then admitting as such. I am very interested in and on the lookout for analyses which explain how and why Putin is funding the war in materiel and men and money, so if anyone knows of any please do let me know.

I think the 'slow munching' of territory in a battle which has lasted over two months should not be diminished, but nor should it be overstated:

 

MuFc_1992

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I was going through the comments on of the Sky news video on Youtube about Russians taking control of Lysychans'k and almost all the comments there were pro Russian making fun of western propaganda and saying things like Azov killed more civilians than Russia etc. Are these comments all Russian bots? I'm starting to worry that people are so distrustful of the western media and governments that they are actively supporting anyone who is going up against them even if they are 100x worse.
 

marktan

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I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
This was the only outcome possible, it baffled me back in march so many were buying the western media line of Russia not being able to do much.

Most wars take many years, and when Russia has such an overwhelming advantage in terms of guns, planes, artillery and man power, there's only one outcome.

Zelensky can be brave and hold out for another two years if he wants, but this is not Churchill with a strong British army and an ocean separating him from the Germans, there will only be one outcome for Ukraine.

The sad thing is it's in the interest of pretty much everyone but the Ukrainians and the Russians for the war to be long, drawn-out and bloody, which just means a lot of suffering for the Ukrainians to come. Putin won't care, we've seen many times in the past that he'll allow great suffering on his own people to come out victorious.
 

shamans

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Just want to see Scholes hit a volley.

This guy's Youtube channel is probably the most reliable commentary I've found on this war. He's so much more balanced than you get elsewhere (including this thread), and he doesn't seem to fall into usual the traps of sensationalism or propaganda. I think he specialism is actually military procurement/finances rather than actual combat. But he still knows his onions.

His video on Germany's military their involvement and what they can realistically do to help Ukraine. I'd recommend it if you have some free time (although it's probably best to watch it on 2x speed).
Thanks, I just started watching and it seems like good content so far. Some of the tweets are just hysterical.

EDIT: Watched almost all of it. Very good video. Sort of why I never bother with twitter coverage of events.
 
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RedDevilQuebecois

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I was going through the comments on of the Sky news video on Youtube about Russians taking control of Lysychans'k and almost all the comments there were pro Russian making fun of western propaganda and saying things like Azov killed more civilians than Russia etc. Are these comments all Russian bots? I'm starting to worry that people are so distrustful of the western media and governments that they are actively supporting anyone who is going up against them even if they are 100x worse.
A bunch of them are Russian bots, but a number of them also come from genuinely ungrateful twats always having some kind of agenda against the West. To a number of them, Putin is some kind of god of toxic masculinity, which should no longer exist in 2022. You can easily read the same crap with the same undertones among Trump supporters.
 

Red_toad

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I mean.. the US government did try to jail Muhammad Ali for it.. or they might have jailed him.. so the US isn't that different here tbh
Not really a point as it wouldn’t happen today, unless it was a genuine world war or massive conflict within their own boarders.
 

4bars

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This was the only outcome possible, it baffled me back in march so many were buying the western media line of Russia not being able to do much.

Most wars take many years, and when Russia has such an overwhelming advantage in terms of guns, planes, artillery and man power, there's only one outcome.

Zelensky can be brave and hold out for another two years if he wants, but this is not Churchill with a strong British army and an ocean separating him from the Germans, there will only be one outcome for Ukraine.

The sad thing is it's in the interest of pretty much everyone but the Ukrainians and the Russians for the war to be long, drawn-out and bloody, which just means a lot of suffering for the Ukrainians to come. Putin won't care, we've seen many times in the past that he'll allow great suffering on his own people to come out victorious.
I was one of the ones that believed the media. I really thought that it would be a walk for ukranians even with a chance to dispute crimea

Sadly it seems they can't win this. The only one that seems that can is russia. But probably not even them in the long run
 

NM

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Not really a point as it wouldn’t happen today, unless it was a genuine world war or massive conflict within their own boarders.
Only because of the power of the US military, but let's keep this on topic