Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Revan

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I still do not see enough deterrence against nuclear deployment from Russia. It should be made really clear that any attempt will result in the complete destruction of Russia. This weakness will be exploited again and with every day that western leaders remain non-commital the likelihood that’s going to be used by Russia increases. That’s the only language those drug addicts in Kremlin get.
The problem with the 'total destruction of Russia' (next to 100 million deaths there) is that it also comes with the total destruction of Europe/US and hundreds of millions of deaths there.

As best possible scenario.
 

Rajma

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I'd have to ask 2 of my friends who are pro-russian and who claimed that Russia attacked Ukraine cause they were provoked by Americans if they changed their stance. Probably not and probably they'll claim Russia annexed Ukrainian territories cause they were provoked... I'm avoiding them in a big circle.
You can show this to your friends that have fallen victims to russian propaganda and disinformation campaign: Leaving the border with Nato completely naked, you wouldn’t do that if you had any serious considerations that Nato might attack you at any point, would you? Especially at the moment when Russia is weak and depleted.
 

stefan92

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You can show this to your friends that have fallen victims to russian propaganda and disinformation campaign: Leaving the border with Nato completely naked, you wouldn’t do that if you had any serious considerations that Nato might attack you at any point, would you? Especially at the moment when Russia is weak and depleted.
Is it finally time to get Königsberg back? :devil:
 

Raoul

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Nonsense.
I think there’s a pretty good chance we are going to see a major escalation in the coming weeks. Once Putin officially annexes the Ukrainian territories, he will use it as a pretext to claim Ukraine is attacking Russian land, which will be used as justification to use more powerful weapons (whether it’s nukes or other WMDs we don’t know ). Once that happens, NATO will be forced to get involved, at which point we will reach a dangerous precipice.
 

sglowrider

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I think there’s a pretty good chance we are going to see a major escalation in the coming weeks. Once Putin officially annexes the Ukrainian territories, he will use it as a pretext to claim Ukraine is attacking Russian land, which will be used as justification to use more powerful weapons (whether it’s nukes or other WMDs we don’t know ). Once that happens, NATO will be forced to get involved, at which point we will reach a dangerous precipice.
Won't they have only a small window for this new offensive due to the harsh Russian/UKR winters?
 

frostbite

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This is a really good video! Especially the last guy. He seems to be a simple Russian guy who has accepted the full Russian TV propaganda, but he looks like a honest person, so the interviewer asks him simple question after simple question till he is dumbfounded by the whole thing!

 

Real Name

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Probably a desperate attempt to stop losing more ground. It's embarassing for Russia to be swept away so easily right now, and this is probably an attempt to stop further routing
I really hope so its just that. The other option is Russians saying you attacked our territory, we're gonna use everything at our disposel, which means even tactical nuclear weapons and big escalation.
 

TMDaines

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Russia now openly massacring Ukrainian citizens fleeing their “annexations”:

 

phelans shorts

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I think there’s a pretty good chance we are going to see a major escalation in the coming weeks. Once Putin officially annexes the Ukrainian territories, he will use it as a pretext to claim Ukraine is attacking Russian land, which will be used as justification to use more powerful weapons (whether it’s nukes or other WMDs we don’t know ). Once that happens, NATO will be forced to get involved, at which point we will reach a dangerous precipice.
But this kind of “we will X if you Y” intimidation attempt has been Russia’s MO throughout this entire thing, and the evidence shows that they won’t as seen by the non entity that is the reaction to attacks in Crimea and Belgorod.
 

Zehner

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But this kind of “we will X if you Y” intimidation attempt has been Russia’s MO throughout this entire thing, and the evidence shows that they won’t as seen by the non entity that is the reaction to attacks in Crimea and Belgorod.
Well, it is getting more difficult for Putin day by day. If he loses all territories, how can he justify sacrificing tens of thousands of Russian lifes at home?

The mobilization has changed much. He's losing support at home which means he increased his stakes in this conflict. I really hope this lack of support means he won't use nukes because he would be done politically but there's a clear difference between explosions on Russian occupied ground and the loss of occupied territories for him.

It would be best if he was removed before he can make this choice because right now, I'm not so sure he wouldn't use one. But if he actually uses one, I suppose protests in Russia will escalate and he'll lose every international good will he still had because China and co. will be left with no choice but abandoning him and NATO will intervene militarily.
 

Rajma

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Now that so many “anti-war” good Russians have fled to neighboring countries we should expect to see mass protests in support of Ukraine organized or attended by them soon as they’re free to do so now, right?
 

NotThatSoph

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Now that so many “anti-war” good Russians have fled to neighboring countries we should expect to see mass protests in support of Ukraine organized or attended by them soon as they’re free to do so now, right?
Why should we expect that? The vast, vast majority of people against this war haven't attended any protests. That includes people who follow this thread as well, of course.
 

Beans

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It's starting to look like the claim that the mobilization will only include those with training under 35 is a lie, and these people who aren't trained and over 35 aren't there on accident.

I'd be concerned he's gonna call up more than 300,000, but it sounds like he will struggle to prepare and supply that many.

Meanwhile 12 of 16 regions of Germany say they can't take more refugees.

https://rmx.news/article/germany-ov...of-16-federal-states-begin-blocking-refugees/
 

RedRover

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Nonsense.
In the Guardian article he's also quoted as saying "of course it depends on what happens on the battlefield" and talks about needing the weapons to counter any strikes and take down missiles.

It suits Ukraine for the West to be on high alert and to keep the weapons pouring in so I personally take those comments with a pinch of salt.
 

RedRover

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Well, it is getting more difficult for Putin day by day. If he loses all territories, how can he justify sacrificing tens of thousands of Russian lifes at home?

The mobilization has changed much. He's losing support at home which means he increased his stakes in this conflict. I really hope this lack of support means he won't use nukes because he would be done politically but there's a clear difference between explosions on Russian occupied ground and the loss of occupied territories for him.

It would be best if he was removed before he can make this choice because right now, I'm not so sure he wouldn't use one. But if he actually uses one, I suppose protests in Russia will escalate and he'll lose every international good will he still had because China and co. will be left with no choice but abandoning him and NATO will intervene militarily.
He wants the West to think he's a "madman" but they don't seem to be taking the bait. He seemed keen at the start of the war to let people think he was sick, or dying, or paranoid after Covid. That doesn't seem to be the case now.

He is becoming increasingly desperate for his political survival but that's not the same as wanting to see the world burn. He must also be aware that the vultures will be circling at home because even if he's prepared to run the risk, I suspect others aren't. His power base is not one of ideologues - they're just gangsters and thieves out for themselves. Will they die for "Mother Russia"?

He's being exposed on the world stage as a gambler who rules by fear and only knows how to threaten escalation, and has no other answer. He solves one problem then instantly creates another . The West aren't backing down the his threats like they have before and he's no doubt aware of the consequences of escalating to tactical nuclear weapons. A war with NATO, on whatever terms is a war he can't win. He knows it, his supporters know it and the people behind the scenes awaiting his downfall know it.

Annexation might see more threats to escalate to "defend Russian territory" but Ukraine have attacked Crimea, and even Russian territory before. The annexations are illegitimate to anyone but Russia and the result of escalation will be the same regardless. I suspect it's as much to try and solidify support at home as anything else.
 
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Rajma

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Why should we expect that? The vast, vast majority of people against this war haven't attended any protests. That includes people who follow this thread as well, of course.
I agree, although it affects them directly as opposed to many here. I’m just deeply frustrated by their apathy to all this given the circumstances. I really believed that mobilization will finally wake them up but I was wrong here.
 

Maagge

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I mean I suspect they have family back in Russia - could saying things have repercussions?

I think in their circumstances regardless of their views most people would try and dodge answering on camera
A friend of mine is Russian and has been living in Denmark for more than a decade. She knows a Russian guy living in Germany who was critical of Russia on social media. His parents' place in Russia ended up being ransacked.