Russian invasion of Ukraine

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This reminds me of operation Storm in Croatian homeland war. Only difference that we had that operation of liberating occupied parts of the country 4 years after it got occupied and Ukrainians are doing it after 7 months. There are a lot of other parallels with that war in which I wont go into here.
 

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About 100km I would say. Nova Kakhovka is half way to Kherson City and should be a major goal for the Ukrainians as it has been a major logistics hub for equipment and supplies crossing the Dnepr.
If they continue like this liberation of Kherson wont be far away?
 

groovyalbert

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How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
 

Bepi

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Yea it's not something to be afraid of.


You don't negotiate of be vary of terrorists, you stick together and act as needed to defeat them.
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
 

The Firestarter

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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
What does North Korea have to do with Putin? You are giving him way too much credit.

EDIT: Also Azerbaijan? You think Putin is responsible for that?
 

Krakenzero

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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
How does appeasement to Putin solve those issues in the short-mid term? Did it post 2014? You know, the bill tends to only get higher.
 

stefan92

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Also Azerbaijan? You think Putin is responsible for that?
Not directly, but yes. The fact that Russian peacekeeping troops left Armenia to fight in Ukraine opened the door for Azerbaijan.

However this is definitely not what Putin wanted as it essentially killed the CSTO.
 

Raoul

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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
They are sustainable indefinitely if the US and EU/NATO are backing the effort. The Russians are far more likely to run out of equipment and resources more quickly, which is built into the western strategy of gradually eroding Putin and his resources down to nothing, and in the process allowing Russians to deal with him from within instead of the West having to deal with him through a shooting war.
 

Simbo

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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
Re: Musk, its never worth engaging with trolls. Zelensky's reply was spot on.

His talking point though, by all means have at it, although its been done to death already in this thread. Its a Russian propaganda narritive that they were always going to push as soon as they knew they'd gone as far as they could in Ukraine, now its reaching levels of desperation. A ceasefire is Putin's only possible semi-positive way out of this.

They have two main ideas to push calls for peace, threat of nukes and threat of freezing Europe through energy costs. They need as many voices in the west as possible to have any remote chance of it. Don't be surprised when the next controvertial dickhead starts spouting the same rubbish.
 

dove

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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
This conflict should be won, not frozen.
 

Organic Potatoes

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How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
If I had to gauge the opinions of usually ’okay’ twitter sources, the Kherson advance would soon slow due to natural reasons and it having the most built-up defenses outside of the post 2014 occupied areas. But some on the Russian side are worried about a ‘left hook’ in the Zaporizhzia area towards Melitopol before too long after this right jab.
 

Beans

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How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
 

Beans

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If they continue like this liberation of Kherson wont be far away?
I believe I read it’s the most enforced city outside of the eastern area Russia held before the war. It will likely take significantly longer than the rapid advances in the north, at best.
 

stefan92

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Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
Yes, there aren't many rivers in that area and nothing else at all acting as a geographical hurdle. That's why it's crucial what happened the last few days, the Oskil tiver was blocking Ukraine and now Russia has lost that line of defence completely. Now Ukraine can only be stopped by Russian forces in the North, everything else is pretty irrelevant.

And regarding winter: I doubt that winter weather would really stop Ukraine. A wet and muddy autumn would likely be a bigger problem than frozen grounds in winter.

Meanwhile it looks like Ukraine is advancing everywhere and Russia is truly collapsing. There are even reports that the Russian Bakhmut front is collapsing, which is remarkable as this was the only front where we have seen at least slow Russian progress lately.
 

stefan92

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It's still criminal that it should take Ukraine years to get another 16 of these considering how much they are a gamechanger.
They also got some M270 meanwhile, which use the same missiles as the M142. Still could be more, but it's very often overlooked I feel.
 

Gehrman

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They also got some M270 meanwhile, which use the same missiles as the M142. Still could be more, but it's very often overlooked I feel.
I'm not an expert by means Havn't been in the miitary myself and I'm not a gunnut.
 

Raoul

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This is why I doubt there’s some kind of winter lull. Ukraine will just be able to snap away at Russia without much coming back the other way and set up another rout
Add to this the US is probably also supplying the Ukrainians with ISR (Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance), which would mean not only are the Ukrainians getting very sophisticated weapons with pin point precision; they are also getting the specific coordinates of where the Russians are located.
 

spiriticon

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Boom, finally. The last front, and imo, the hardest one. From what I heard Russia have a huge amount of BTGs in that area to protect that land bridge to Crimea. But that said, I've also heard that the Ukrainians are saving a ton of firepower for that front too.

If Ukraine can dissect that long front into 2 or 3 smaller pieces, the end of the war is nigh.
 

VorZakone

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KYIV, Ukraine — The city council of Kyiv says it is providing evacuation centers with potassium iodine pills in preparation for a possible nuclear strike on the capital, Ukraine’s largest city.

Potassium iodine pills can help block the absorption of harmful radiation by the thyroid gland if taken just before or immediately after exposure to nuclear radiation.

The pills will be distributed to residents in areas contaminated by nuclear radiation if there is a need to evacuate, the city council said in a statement.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...and-politics-9c1297eb1d1557a91652aa64a0fbdcad
 

LARulz

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In all seriousness, what can Putin do now? (And by that I mean what would he do, not what he should do an give up all lands)

Nuclear keeps getting thrown about but no chance that happens cos it's not just him who aims and pushes the button (OK, he may push the button). There are lots of others who will have some sort of say or would rather shoot him dead than have a situation where they 100% die too

He doesn't seem to have much left to call on in terms of military and no chance for diplomatic resolution where he remains in power for terms he'd accept
 

VorZakone

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In all seriousness, what can Putin do now? (And by that I mean what would he do, not what he should do an give up all lands)

Nuclear keeps getting thrown about but no chance that happens cos it's not just him who aims and pushes the button (OK, he may push the button). There are lots of others who will have some sort of say or would rather shoot him dead than have a situation where they 100% die too

He doesn't seem to have much left to call on in terms of military and no chance for diplomatic resolution where he remains in power for terms he'd accept
My guess is he'll drag it out as long as possible and wait until the West gets tired of aiding Ukraine. When that scenario doesn't happen I reckon he'll find some excuse to retreat.

I don't think he'll go for full mobilization or a tactical nuke.
 

LARulz

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My guess is he'll drag it out as long as possible and wait until the West gets tired of aiding Ukraine. When that scenario doesn't happen I reckon he'll find some excuse to retreat.

I don't think he'll go for full mobilization or a tactical nuke.
But can he retreat and keep power? They'd be in a worse position than before no matter what and surely his close circle won't accept that because they'd have done it all for nothing in their eyes

Full mobilization would cause chaos and a nuke I still think is just a no go as I can't see whatever the chain is, all agreeing
 

VorZakone

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But can he retreat and keep power? They'd be in a worse position than before no matter what and surely his close circle won't accept that because they'd have done it all for nothing in their eyes

Full mobilization would cause chaos and a nuke I still think is just a no go as I can't see whatever the chain is, all agreeing
I think he can keep power but he'd have to become more authoritarian than he already is to supress dissent.