Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Good thread.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Its Will Ferrell

 

[GlastonSpur]

Ukraine war: Putin ‘at risk of coup’ by Russian security services:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7f272af8-aaca-11ec-8da7-c2b9b8c9eee5

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[YouOnlyLiveTwice]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Something make me uneasy about leaks like this. I don't know anything about this guy, but i don't see why Putin needs to hear about his "outburst of emotions". This man could potentially be part of a coup against Putin, no need for him to disappear from the earth. Maybe i'm making too much out of it.

 

[Sir Matt]

Something make me uneasy about leaks like this. I don't know anything about this guy, but i don't see why Putin needs to hear about his "outburst of emotions". This man could potentially be part of a coup against Putin, no need for him to disappear from the earth. Maybe i'm making too much out of it.

I thought it was strange that they interpreted his outburst as a precursor to attacking them over the US and Ukraine re: Donbas, but I don't think you'd be in the Russian General Staff if you weren't drinking the Koolaid. I think it does show how nervy they are about the war.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[dal]

The EU is trying to convince Germany and Hungary to accept an oil embargo and Putin comes in and helps by cutting the gas anyway? Also, doesn't this free the EU to cut the remaining Russian banks from SWIFT?

It doesn't make sense for them, especially when they need the money to keep the war going.

That’s the thing, he knows they need his gas, so they won’t feck off and they will buy in roubles hence strengthening the rouble, it’s also a political power play.

 

[berbatrick]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

the most nationalistic* russian chess player has a similar personal background to this general (born to russian-speaking family in eastern ukraine, left for russia, massive putin fan, now banned from chess for supportive statements about the war).

*at least among high-profile ones

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Rajma]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This talks about the (low) Russian military standing in social hierarchy and discuss the domestic support for this war. Really good thread.

 

[Rektsanwalt]

That’s the thing, he knows they need his gas, so they won’t feck off and they will buy in roubles hence strengthening the rouble, it’s also a political power play.

I'm not 100% sure Germany would give in so easily, if Putin really pushes this through.

 

[Schmiznurf]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Nazi grafitti is hardly a good reason to call a country nazi though, if that were the case Russia could invade Wales with the same reason.

 

[The Boy]

Nazi grafitti is hardly a good reason to call a country nazi though, if that were the case Russia could invade Wales with the same reason.

Or Swindon!

 

[Rajma]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Nice catch this morning, Odessa is going to be a Russian bloodbath if they attempt a beach landing still.

 

[sglowrider]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Nice catch this morning, Odessa is going to be a Russian bloodbath if they attempt a beach landing still.

Is that they call beaches strewn with rose petals welcoming the liberators?

 

[UpWithRivers]

That's virtually impossible. China is a completely different situation than Russia, where the economic integration is mostly just based on resource exportation. That is a vastly different scenario than China where 50 years of globalism have integrated the Chinese and western economies in such a way across so many sectors that what you suggest just isn't realistic in any way. A world where the west is entirely self-sufficient to the point it could cut all economic ties with China with minimal impact is very far away from the world we live in today.

It's not even desirable really because that integration also serves to keep China aligned more with global prosperity. A China that cut off from the west would have less incentives to keep the peace overall.

So they start arming Russia. Then what? Bend over?

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Whats the odds that its just the UK/US spy agencies doing this and pretending to be hackers.

 

[Shakesy]

The things that always get to me when I see pictures of dead people are their shoes. For some reason I always think about them putting on those shoes for the last time...

 

[UpWithRivers]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I dont know why everyone is losing their sht over this like they just found the enigma machine. I programmed something similar 20 years ago for the MOD. Its just a mobile command and control center. i.e. a fancy mobile bomb proof (ish) office with a few servers and radar etc. It just gets all the data from planes etc and processes it into one big tactical map. There will be nothing fancy to find.

 

[RoyH1]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This talks about the (low) Russian military standing in social hierarchy and discuss the domestic support for this war. Really good thread.

Very interesting thread. It reminds to a certain degree og much of what Stalin would constantly do with his military leadership and the entire officer class before and during WW2. Regular army forces would be followed by politically reliable troops (typically NKVD) and harassed and threatened in order to keep them in line.

 

[TwoSheds]

They aren't actually cheaper, they're about the same price.

But they also require fossil fuels to make.

Solar and wind have been cheaper than gas for years in most places and gas has just gone up 400% so...

And ref energy efficiency I would accept that it depends on the application but the cheapest energy efficiency measures pay themselves back incredibly quickly in many places in Northern Europe e.g. draught proofing, insulation. Heat pumps it's a less obvious case admittedly. New builds in the UK still aren't obliged to fit most water and energy saving measures though, which is inexcusable really as it's far easier and cheaper to fit to a new build than refit a building that wasn't designed for it.

Oh and you don't need fossil fuels to make these things, that's why we're working on hydrogen for example.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I dont know why everyone is losing their sht over this like they just found the enigma machine. I programmed something similar 20 years ago for the MOD. Its just a mobile command and control center. i.e. a fancy mobile bomb proof (ish) office with a few servers and radar etc. It just gets all the data from planes etc and processes it into one big tactical map. There will be nothing fancy to find.

Folk seem to think it's a jamming station rather than a command and control centre.

 

[golden_blunder]

It wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the Anonymous hackers are actually employees of GCHQ (signals intelligence, cyber security and more), an organisation which is known to have very sophisticated hacking capabilities.

After all, an "anarchist" collective like Anonymous would be the perfect front/disguise for such involvement, allowing government denial of any such activity.

Hello plot of 24 and Chloe dressing all goth

 

[The Firestarter]

Very interesting thread. It reminds to a certain degree og much of what Stalin would constantly do with his military leadership and the entire officer class before and during WW2. Regular army forces would be followed by politically reliable troops (typically NKVD) and harassed and threatened in order to keep them in line.

This in line with Viktor Suvorov 's writings that the red army was feared during the ussr years that it might conduct a coup, and constantly purged - even after Stalin. The racketeering of troops , even the strategic forces - was new to me though.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Nice catch this morning, Odessa is going to be a Russian bloodbath if they attempt a beach landing still.

The BBC report that - according to Ukraine media (unconfirmed from other sources) - it's not just this ship that was hit, but that in total one Russian ship was sunk, two others are on fire, plus an ammunition depot and a fuel warehouse were hit.

If all true, it would be an incredibly successful attack by the Ukrainians.

 

[Pintu]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

And context.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Frosty]

Military supplies depleted on both sides but Russia retains advantage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-on-both-sides-but-russia-retains-advantage

It has been a month since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and such has been the intensity of the first phase of the fighting that both sides in the conflict have increasingly depleted their stocks of ammunition and other military supplies.

But while Ukraine is willing to claim that the Russian invaders have only three days of supplies left, while warning that its own troops are running out of anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, the reality is hard to measure.

“Resupply issues are hard to gauge, as both sides are keeping that information close to their chest due to operational security concerns,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare specialist with the Rusi thinktank.


For Ukraine there is a particular concern that it is running short on the western-supplied weapons that have helped it knock out Russian tanks and planes.

Kyiv’s military has been requesting a huge number more weapons in the run-up to the Nato summit on Thursday, and has secured a commitment from Britain to send 5,000 more missiles.

It is also clear that Russia is suffering from serious logistical constraints that have forced it to abandon its clearly over-optimistic plan to simultaneously encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv and attack from the south and east.
Western officials believe it has lost the ability to fight an offensive on multiple axes, partly because of resupply issues but also because of the casualties it has sustained – somewhere between 7,000 and 10,000 – and it is now simply focusing on trying to capture Mariupol with a brutal and long-running bombardment.

An important sign of the scale of Russia’s difficulties will be if Ukraine can muster an effective counterattack in the Irpin area north-west of the capital, which has seen some of the most deadly fighting from almost the beginning of the war.

“If the early reports of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Irpin area prove accurate, this will be a key indicator that Russian supply problems along the Kyiv axis of advance have not been rectified, though casualties, low morale and poor operational coordination will also have played a role,” Reynolds said.

The prevailing view, however, remains that the advantage sits with the aggressor. “Russia retains, in overall terms, significant materiel and personnel reserves that it can draw upon,” said one western source, speaking on condition of anonymity. But the supply lines are complicated for some of the invading forces, particularly those from Russia’s far-off easternmost districts.

Ukraine’s problem is more serious. The country’s arms industry was already far smaller than Russia’s and many of its industrial areas in the east have been heavily damaged by the war. It is long-term damage, which, judging by the scant regard Moscow has shown for civilian casualties, was probably partly deliberate.

Kyiv, in terms of most of the key military hardware, is now entirely reliant on a regular, continuing flow of supply from the west to counteract Russia’s ability to mass tanks and air power against Ukrainian defenders and people. But such high-end weapons can easily be used in warfare far faster than they can be manufactured.
When it comes to arms and ammunition, that could mean a longer fight is to Russia’s advantage, if the Kremlin is willing to continue to tolerate large numbers of casualties. Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin appears willing to do just that.

Thoughts from those with more knowledge in the matter?

 

[stefan92]

Military supplies depleted on both sides but Russia retains advantage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-on-both-sides-but-russia-retains-advantage



Thoughts from those with more knowledge in the matter?

It makes sense, but the big question is how long this war will take. For weeks Ukraine will still have the advantage, if we talk about months or even years then Ukraine will need western supply on a scale to match the output of the Russian industry.

 

[Pexbo]

It makes sense, but the big question is how long this war will take. For weeks Ukraine will still have the advantage, if we talk about months or even years then Ukraine will need western supply on a scale to match the output of the Russian industry.

Considering their economy is in free fall and their arms manufacturers are shutting down production because they don’t have the import lines anymore - I’d say that the longer the one war goes on the more advantage Ukraine gains. Especially if NATO deem it a good way of weakening Putin and leading to his downfall.

 

[spiriticon]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Yean the stock market opened but short selling was banned and foreign investors were also banned from selling hahaha. And obviously the government is helping as well.

But every extra ruble they need to support their economy is one less ruble they have for the war. It all adds up. I'd rather they channel all their money to the stock market than using it to build more cruise missiles.

 

[Mihai]

Surprised this took so long to inevitably happen.

There have been reports of rape prior to this already.

 

[spiriticon]

Military supplies depleted on both sides but Russia retains advantage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-on-both-sides-but-russia-retains-advantage



Thoughts from those with more knowledge in the matter?

As long as the supply lines remain intact within Ukraine, they will get armed to the teeth. There's dozens of countries sending them weapons of all sorts every other week. It's actually a bit unfair on the Russians, but not that I give a feck.

 

[Pexbo]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[ZupZup]

It wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the Anonymous hackers are actually employees of GCHQ (signals intelligence, cyber security and more), an organisation which is known to have very sophisticated hacking capabilities.

After all, an "anarchist" collective like Anonymous would be the perfect front/disguise for such involvement, allowing government denial of any such activity.

Knowing what GCHQ is like... I really don't think they like to employ people of the 'moral crusader' type who would be interested in Anonymous. GCHQ has used DoS attacks on Anonymous in the past to disrupt their communications.

 

[stefan92]

Considering their economy is in free fall and their arms manufacturers are shutting down production because they don’t have the import lines anymore - I’d say that the longer the one war goes on the more advantage Ukraine gains. Especially if NATO deem it a good way of weakening Putin and leading to his downfall.

We don't know how long it would take the Russians to produce the missing pieces themselves. I guess they won't be able to produce some of their most modern systems, but I don't think they need much imported stuff to build T-72s and other stuff of that technological level.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This talks about the (low) Russian military standing in social hierarchy and discuss the domestic support for this war. Really good thread.

Indeed. I didn't realise that the Russian military were held in - and deliberately kept in - such low esteem. It explains a lot about why they are doing so badly in Ukraine.

 

[sun_tzu]

We don't know how long it would take the Russians to produce the missing pieces themselves. I guess they won't be able to produce some of their most modern systems, but I don't think they need much imported stuff to build T-72s and other stuff of that technological level.

Probably longer than it would take them to send piece to china and get it reverse engineered

 

[GlastonSpur]

Knowing what GCHQ is like... I really don't think they like to employ people of the 'moral crusader' type who would be interested in Anonymous. GCHQ has used DoS attacks on Anonymous in the past to disrupt their communications.

That's not what I was suggesting. Instead, I'm thinking that GCHQ might have infiltrated Anonymous with people who simply pose as 'moral crusader' types - whilst drawing on the hacking resources of GCHQ - because Anonymous can then be used a convenient non-state actor behind which GCHQ can hide in certain situations where the aims of GCHQ and Anonymous just happen to coincide .... as with the war in Ukraine and damaging the Russian state.

 

[Rajma]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Dans]

Just sell off one of the oligarch mega yachts and the embassies should be back in business.

To who? Jeff, Elon, Bill and Warren?