Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms

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There’s also some psychological adaptation/defensive mechanism — it’s not a coincidence that the public support had only appeared after a couple of weeks after the initial invasion, after the initial shock had passed. It’s easier for people to believe in the mythical nazis than to understand their collective responsibility for what’s happening now — and to understand that your country and you by proxy are the Nazi Germany of the XXIth century. Especially when everything they hear from every TV, radio etc. supports that picture of Russia as this martyr that fights the collective evil from abroad instead of the other way around.

@Walrus
 

golden_blunder

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It’s simply irrational panic. People have seen/heard that there’s going to be a shortage of sugar, went in to buy it in advance, created said shortage, induced even more panic, rinse & repeat.
Yeah I suppose we all panicked over bog roll here when the pandemic started.
sugar in huge bags though confuses me
 

frostbite

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I have been quite critical of the Russian people in my last few posts harms. I would genuinely like to know though;

  • Do you think the average Russian has an interest in finding alternative sources of information?
  • Do they believe that the state news/information sources are accurate?
  • If everyone in Russia had access to multiple news platforms and could see 'the truth', what would be the result? Apathy or revolution? (Or something in between).

I fear I am an example of how Western sentiment is shifting from "This is Putin's war, the Russian people are innocent" to "feck the lot of them". The crimes and atrocities being committed by Russian troops. The stories of people calling back to their relatives in Russia only to be disbelieved.... it starts to paint a picture that the average Russian either supports what is happening, or is at least indifferent enough to not really give a shit. We are fast reaching points of no-return, where I dont think there can be any peaceful coexistence with Russia in its current form.
I am not Russian, but here is my understanding:

The majority of Russians believe that they are something special, something very different from the average western person. The majority of Russians wanted a strongman as the head of their state, because they also believe that only a strongman can lead them to their destiny as a nation, like the Czar or Stalin etc. A messy democracy, changing head of state every 3-4 years, these things cannot survive in Russia (that's what they believe). You can see that in Dostoyevski, but you can also see the same thing in Solzhenitsyn, who lived in USA for many years but actually deeply disliked "the west" and believed that the western model of democracy would be catastrophic for Russia. So, for many Russians the Strongman is an absolute necessity. (Of course, this is indoctrination, the various strongmen in their history encouraged this worldview, but what can you do now? Nothing. That's why nothing happened after the murder of Nemtsov, the Strongman is expected to show his strength from time to time. )

For the past 20 years, the majority of Russians believe that they have found the RIGHT strongman to lead them. For most of them there is no alternative. So, yes, they deeply believe that Putin is doing the right thing. It is their man on the top, he can't be wrong. This is their team, and Putin is their captain, they have to support him.

Then, in their mind, everything is the fault of the West. Why did the West get involved with Ukraine at all? Ukraine is their nephew, they have to take care of the weird nephew, perhaps a little pain will happen (naturally!) but there is no reason for the West to get involved, it is THEIR family after all. Even if things got a bit wrong in the process, again it is because the West got involved and messed up everything, otherwise the whole thing would be over in two days without any difficulties.

What can you say against such ingrained beliefs?
 

frostbite

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  • It’s an interesting point that is impossible to prove, really. I’m pretty sure that we wouldn’t have been here if free press wasn’t eliminated by Putin in a systemic fashion over the past 2 decades. If you somehow magically return access to other opinions to all of Russians… do you return the access technically? Or do you somehow convince everyone to watch the alternative version as well?
Russia has a huge collective feeling of historical ressentiment that Putin had been nurturing throughout his entire rule — the idea that Russia had been robbed of its superpower status by outside forces. There’s a complete lack of postcolonial awareness of our shared collective past. Russia hadn’t really worked out the trauma of WW2, instead sublimating all that energy into patriotic sentiment. It hasn’t really resolved the internal trauma of Stalin’s repressions, keeping alive the idea that huge goals can justify any potential losses, including human life.

I do think that Putin’s regime is doomed now from a historical perspective — but the eventual public disillusionment will come from the economical collapse, not from a sudden ethical understanding of Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. And even though the regime doesn’t have an option of coming back from this in my opinion, it has enough brute force to theoretically hold on for years.
And they will blame the West again. And they will have even more resentment.

One of the big problems is that Russia never faced their past. Nothing like what Germany did with Hitler and the Nazis. Never admitted that the whole Soviet model, and the Czarist model as well, were rotten to the core. Not just Stalin, who is an easy target, everyone involved with the communist party (like everyone involved with the Nazi party), those thousands and thousands of officers, policemen and wardens who killed, tortured, and destroyed millions of innocent people.

How many officers who tortured prisoners at the gulags were indicted? How much do they teach at schools today about the gulags, and the police state, and the tortures, and the executions? Nothing. Because if they did, the people would never accept a KGB officer as the head of the state. It is like Germany in 1955 picking a former Nazi officer as their Prime Minister! And that's the reason that Germany became a modern democracy, while Russia became a police state again. Germans are ashamed of their Nazi past, Russians are proud of the Soviet Empire.
 
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Rektsanwalt

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And they will blame the West again. And they will have even more resentment.

One of the big problems is that Russia never faced their past. Nothing like what Germany did with Hitler and the Nazis. Never admitted that the whole Soviet model, and the Czarist model as well, were rotten to the core. Not just Stalin, who is an easy target, everyone involved with the communist party (like everyone involved with the Nazi party), those thousands and thousands of officers, policemen and wardens who killed, tortured, and destroyed millions of innocent people.

How many officers who tortured prisoners at the gulags were indicted? How much do they teach at schools today about the gulags, and the police state, and the tortures, and the executions? Nothing. Because if they did, the people would never accept a KGB officer as the head of the state. It is like Germany in 1955 picking a former Nazi officer as their Prime Minister! And that's the reason that Germany became a modern democracy, while Russia became a police state again. Germans are ashamed of their Nazi past, Russians are proud of the Soviet Empire.

This is 100% true and there's a good reason why Germany is one of the few states where a true change took place. The reason for that is pretty simple, imo: the country was completely crushed on almost every level and afterwards occupied by forces that share cultural heritage with Germany and actually took care of the economic situation. Otherwise, Germany would look very different.
 

stefan92

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This is 100% true and there's a good reason why Germany is one of the few states where a true change took place. The reason for that is pretty simple, imo: the country was completely crushed on almost every level and afterwards occupied by forces that share cultural heritage with Germany and actually took care of the economic situation. Otherwise, Germany would look very different.
And yet we see in Germany even to this day a big difference between western occupied parts of Germany and the Soviet occupied parts. Even 30 years after the reunification you can still see a lot of different mentality, at least in the older people. It's slowly decreasing, but it takes decades to really become one people again.
 

Rektsanwalt

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And yet we see in Germany even to this day a big difference between western occupied parts of Germany and the Soviet occupied parts. Even 30 years after the reunification you can still see a lot of different mentality, at least in the older people. It's slowly decreasing, but it takes decades to really become one people again.
Yeah, I should have made clear that I only speak about west Germany, especially compared to east Germany. There's still a huge difference and a quite large cultural gap between east and west - and both sides seem to not really care too much about each other. This isn't surprising at all, though, considering east Germany is the slightly dumb and slow minded ugly little brother. ;-)
 

harms

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This is 100% true and there's a good reason why Germany is one of the few states where a true change took place. The reason for that is pretty simple, imo: the country was completely crushed on almost every level and afterwards occupied by forces that share cultural heritage with Germany and actually took care of the economic situation. Otherwise, Germany would look very different.
Would I be wrong to say that the real cultural change only happened in the late 60's/70's? With Willy Brandt, RAF etc.
 

GlastonSpur

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The BBC says:

"The UK government wants to supply Ukraine with anti-ship missiles to sink Russian warships, and ease the pressure on coastal cites they are bombarding from the sea, the Sunday Times is reporting.

The newspaper described the plan as part of a "gear change" in the West's response to the war.

It said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told ministers that he wanted to supply the weapons to prevent Russian forces from advancing on the southern port city of Odesa.

Russian missile strikes hit the city this morning."
 

TwoSheds

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Old Vladimir must be regretting supporting a snake like Boris all these years eh?
 

stefan92

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Would I be wrong to say that the real cultural change only happened in the late 60's/70's? With Willy Brandt, RAF etc.
You would be right. After the war it was necessary to keep a lot of people who worked for the Nazis as part of government, businesses etc. Getting rid of everyone would just have led to total collapse, so at first only the worst Nazis were expelled from their offices etc.

Only in the late 60s a new generation that grew up in peace demanded more clarification about who did what during the Nazi years, and only then it was actually possible to realistically take care of that issue as it simply took time to get fresh personnel that wasn't involved in the Nazi organisations (simply because they were too young during the war).

This development didn't happen in East Germany (because the socialist dictatorship just denied that there could be any Nazis in their state) , so if you like you maybe can make a direct comparison between the strong right wing support in east Germany and Russias slip to becoming a nationalist fascist state?
 

Rektsanwalt

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Would I be wrong to say that the real cultural change only happened in the late 60's/70's? With Willy Brandt, RAF etc.
No, you would not be wrong, I'd say. These gigantic social developments take quite a while to actually happen. One main reason being people who were socialized in the Kaiserreich, lived through Weimar and the third Reich were simply too old, to actually change. They needed to die first, before major changes could take place. Generally speaking, time is the key factor for these major changes. As long as the old minded people live and have financial and social power (houses, money, influential jobs etc. etc.), society can not change, as the new generations don't have access to social key roles.
I am kind of off-topic now, for which I apologize, but it's a thought that troubled and excited me at the same time. Currently, the boomer generation is a huge demographic factor in western countries. As they start dying out, there's a very big shift in power happening, as they the generations after the boomers simply are not as many. Which means huge uncertainty and enormous possibilities. I expect western societies to drastically change in the next 20 years - hopefully for the best. Because it also bears the potential that we simply lose the good aspects of boomer culture and keep the bad habits as well. Soon, there's no one alive to have witnessed second world war and the people that at least witnessed people who experienced it directly are dying out. This means a big task in terms of Erinnerungskultur and to keep the aversion against military conflicts alive. My own generation - I am born in 1990 - is a lot less sceptical about related topics, imo. For example I know many people who invest in stocks and the older generations still never want to invest in weapon manufacturers, but the younger ones don't care.
 

RedSky

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Those who are against the war are unlikely to be giving interviews in the middle of the street because of the hatchet men. Or they probably already left the country.

But that said there are definitely a lot of pro war people, all of whom who deserve the rotten economy that's coming.
Very much this. Why would you say something in an interview like that and be potentially thrown in prison for 15 years and indanger the lives of your loved ones. Unfortunately the only way anything changes in Russia is for a group with genuine power to mutiny. Not for a random person in the street to do an interview.

I doubt we'll ever find out the true reflection of those for and against the war.
 

Smores

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Very much this. Why would you say something in an interview like that and be potentially thrown in prison for 15 years and indanger the lives of your loved ones. Unfortunately the only way anything changes in Russia is for a group with genuine power to mutiny. Not for a random person in the street to do an interview.

I doubt we'll ever find out the true reflection of those for and against the war.
Yeah but It's very easy for tough men posting here to say they'd hypothetically be out protesting and taking on the Russian state.

I'm sure if there's a significant moment where it looks like things are turning plenty with be out in Russia. I think that would need the military turning or an internal move against Putin.
 

TwoSheds

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Yeah but It's very easy for tough men posting here to say they'd hypothetically be out protesting and taking on the Russian state.

I'm sure if there's a significant moment where it looks like things are turning plenty with be out in Russia. I think that would need the military turning or an internal move against Putin.
I'd agree with this. It's basically the same in the UK but on a vastly smaller scale of consequences.
 

GlastonSpur

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  • Nope
  • Yeah
  • It’s an interesting point that is impossible to prove, really. I’m pretty sure that we wouldn’t have been here if free press wasn’t eliminated by Putin in a systemic fashion over the past 2 decades. If you somehow magically return access to other opinions to all of Russians… do you return the access technically? Or do you somehow convince everyone to watch the alternative version as well?
Russia has a huge collective feeling of historical ressentiment that Putin had been nurturing throughout his entire rule — the idea that Russia had been robbed of its superpower status by outside forces. There’s a complete lack of postcolonial awareness of our shared collective past. Russia hadn’t really worked out the trauma of WW2, instead sublimating all that energy into patriotic sentiment. It hasn’t really resolved the internal trauma of Stalin’s repressions, keeping alive the idea that huge goals can justify any potential losses, including human life.

I do think that Putin’s regime is doomed now from a historical perspective — but the eventual public disillusionment will come from the economical collapse, not from a sudden ethical understanding of Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. And even though the regime doesn’t have an option of coming back from this in my opinion, it has enough brute force to theoretically hold on for years.
I am not Russian, but here is my understanding:

The majority of Russians believe that they are something special, something very different from the average western person. The majority of Russians wanted a strongman as the head of their state, because they also believe that only a strongman can lead them to their destiny as a nation, like the Czar or Stalin etc. A messy democracy, changing head of state every 3-4 years, these things cannot survive in Russia (that's what they believe). You can see that in Dostoyevski, but you can also see the same thing in Solzhenitsyn, who lived in USA for many years but actually deeply disliked "the west" and believed that the western model of democracy would be catastrophic for Russia. So, for many Russians the Strongman is an absolute necessity. (Of course, this is indoctrination, the various strongmen in their history encouraged this worldview, but what can you do now? Nothing. That's why nothing happened after the murder of Nemtsov, the Strongman is expected to show his strength from time to time. )

For the past 20 years, the majority of Russians believe that they have found the RIGHT strongman to lead them. For most of them there is no alternative. So, yes, they deeply believe that Putin is doing the right thing. It is their man on the top, he can't be wrong. This is their team, and Putin is their captain, they have to support him.

Then, in their mind, everything is the fault of the West. Why did the West get involved with Ukraine at all? Ukraine is their nephew, they have to take care of the weird nephew, perhaps a little pain will happen (naturally!) but there is no reason for the West to get involved, it is THEIR family after all. Even if things got a bit wrong in the process, again it is because the West got involved and messed up everything, otherwise the whole thing would be over in two days without any difficulties.

What can you say against such ingrained beliefs?
In addition, Russia is vast geographically - spanning 11 different times zones and 6,200 miles from east to west (that's more than double the east-west span of the USA, not counting Alaska or Hawaii). This has two consequences:

1) It has never had a European identity (how could it when it also borders China and the Pacific Ocean?), but instead is more accurately described as Eurasian. Moreover, unlike the USA, Russia was never colonised by Europeans, so in terms of philosophy and political culture it has remained set in its own bubble.

2) Fear of break-up by virtue of being simply too big - hence in part the predilection for centralised rule by "strong man" dictators and seeing dissent as a threat

In How the World Thinks, the philosopher Julian Baggini said of Russia:

"A permissive attitude to truth [i.e. relative unconcern with traditional notions of truth], a rejection of decadent Western values, a sense of national exceptionalism, the prime importance of holding the nation together, the unimportance of the individual compared to the collective destiny: the connections between these ideas and the actions of Russian political leaders of all stripes is plain to see."
 

TwoSheds

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What's basically the same?
The fact that people aren't happy really but need a kick/ direction to actually do anything about it. Could say the same in many countries tbf. Portugal for example.
 

Zehner

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I do think that Putin’s regime is doomed now from a historical perspective — but the eventual public disillusionment will come from the economical collapse, not from a sudden ethical understanding of Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. And even though the regime doesn’t have an option of coming back from this in my opinion, it has enough brute force to theoretically hold on for years.
I think we're entering uncharted territory now. We've seen that North Korea can control and oppress their population quite effectively in complete isolation and resulting poverty. The question is, will this be possible in a country that wasn't really free to begin with but still had many ties and cultural exchange with Western society?

In the end, every person on earth is egotistical. When the standards of life people have become used to detoriate it will be crucial how they react. In my view it's very hard to predict how the average indoctrinated person will behave. They could turn on Putin, they could buy into the idea that the West is to blame for everything again, they could protest or they could be too afraid to do so.

One way or another, it is stil too early for either of these things to manifest.
 

The Firestarter

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There will be no compromise, no peace between these two nations for generations/centuries. The main aim should be to help Ukranian army as much as possible.
And do this to a sufficient degree before far right elements manage to install themselves in western countries.
 

Demyanenko_square_jaw

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  • It’s an interesting point that is impossible to prove, really. I’m pretty sure that we wouldn’t have been here if free press wasn’t eliminated by Putin in a systemic fashion over the past 2 decades. If you somehow magically return access to other opinions to all of Russians… do you return the access technically? Or do you somehow convince everyone to watch the alternative version as well?
Russia has a huge collective feeling of historical ressentiment that Putin had been nurturing throughout his entire rule — the idea that Russia had been robbed of its superpower status by outside forces. There’s a complete lack of postcolonial awareness of our shared collective past. Russia hadn’t really worked out the trauma of WW2, instead sublimating all that energy into patriotic sentiment. It hasn’t really resolved the internal trauma of Stalin’s repressions, keeping alive the idea that huge goals can justify any potential losses, including human life.

I do think that Putin’s regime is doomed now from a historical perspective — but the eventual public disillusionment will come from the economical collapse, not from a sudden ethical understanding of Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. And even though the regime doesn’t have an option of coming back from this in my opinion, it has enough brute force to theoretically hold on for years.
Good post harms. Russian exceptionalism from the colonial/great power times as the largest/strongest state in the region ( but almost always weak compared to the West) has never been worked through in any substantial manner outside of some academic circles and liberal minority with access to higher/wider education. The political climate never allowed for it, even to the distinctly imperfect extent that the democratic great powers have managed. Add in the blundering and corruption from all sides during the '90s when there was more significant will to solidify relations and values with the West...i think that was one of the final nails in the coffin for many from older generations engaging in that manner politically, and created an ideal situation for Putin's propaganda to smooth the slide back into a different kind of authoritarianism and/or apathy.
 

Demyanenko_square_jaw

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Take as much moral high ground as you want. Realistically, the ONLY reason Russia hasnt been pounded into submission over their continued aggression is their nuclear arsenal - which they continue to overtly threaten the west with.

Russia is a problem and the world would be better off without Russia in its current form. That doesn’t mean every Russian person should be killed, but the country itself is a problem for the world right now, basically a giant sized North Korea with nukes.

The Carthage reference was mildly tongue in cheek, but I do not believe that peaceful coexistence with Russia is possible any more. At best it will be another Cold War. Their actions are also forcing other global nations to “pick a side”, and the world feels like it is in a very dangerous and precarious position right now.
Not hard to take any moral high ground against statements like that. You've basically raced to the bottom as quick as Putin with that sort of view, rolling back your morality into a brutal radicalised mindset. Good to know it was only mildly tongue in cheek though, and not every Russian person would have to be killed. Even as a joke, stuff like that coming from someone that from reading your other posts seems to have little tie or real knowledge of the region just pisses me off. It never takes long for the more reactionary of minds to go straight to calls about crushing and purging entire nations after governments have created conflicts like this. understandable perhaps from those currently directly effected by unjust aggressive/imperialistic conflicts, be it Russian, American, Chinese inflicted or whoever...however to see it coming from someone probably sitting in a comfortable existence in a prosperous country, it's deeply depressing and just screams to me of the sort of minds easily manipulated into following an unjust path in the first place. Forgive me if i've been too presumptuous of your circumstance, but it's the overall mindset of those that go down these routes that galls me and contributes nothing good or constructive.

you don't have to tell me about the bleak situation in Russia, i'm invested in both countries through friends and family and have made a choice to leave years ago due to the slide into fascism that Putin has presided over . Too much so to be responding to off-hand trash like that comment, but i'll allow myself the once.
 

TMDaines

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I wonder what more the West has to see to seriously ramp up their involvement? Never thought we’d see cynical civilian deaths on this scale in whole settlements. It’s one thing to take the long term, low-risk approach to managing a war on your doorstep. It’s another thing entirely to tolerate genocide.
 

Krakenzero

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There's probably a lot of insane people truly supporting insane things in Russia right now, along with a lot of brainwashed people, plus a lot of indifferent people who have no problem to play along as they don't care enough to do anything about it. As it happens in most countries. Even in this thing Russia isn't exceptional either.

Thing is, in order to put things to an end it's strategically better to put the blame on Putin and his inner circle that on the whole country. People will turn on a handful of people easier and faster than on themselves, their country or the collective idea of it.
 

harms

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I wonder what more the West has to see to seriously ramp up their involvement? Never thought we’d see cynical civilian deaths on this scale in whole settlements. It’s one thing to take the long term, low-risk approach to managing a war on your doorstep. It’s another thing entirely to tolerate genocide.
At least the oil & gas embargo is pretty much guaranteed, I'd imagine.
 

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Very much this. Why would you say something in an interview like that and be potentially thrown in prison for 15 years and indanger the lives of your loved ones. Unfortunately the only way anything changes in Russia is for a group with genuine power to mutiny. Not for a random person in the street to do an interview.

I doubt we'll ever find out the true reflection of those for and against the war.
But based on what especially @harms and @Demyanenko_square_jaw are saying here, I wouldn't be too optimistic about what that change could bring.

A new leader would probably try to back out of Ukraine ASAP given how the invasion is going for Russia, and that would be good, obviously. But otherwise, new leaders most likely would come from the current circles of the mighty and hence probably wouldn't be very different from Putin in their attitudes to democracy/autocracy. And given how the Russian people have been brainwashed, and will now be suffering due to the sanctions, the new leaders likely won't be any less nationalistic and anti-western either.

So that would be change, but not really for the better; more of the same, rather. And I think current western actions don't intend any different. The long-term plan isn't to improve things for Russians, but to seize on the current situation to crush Russia out of global significance, whatever the cost for the Russian people.

Not that I would know how things could be done differently, especially without a huge cost in turn for Ukrainians; but none of it leads to much optimism for me. As always, the High & Mighty make their moves (including the dead-end Russian propaganda that has brainwashed its population into supporting suicidal policies and actions), and the common people suffer.
 

WI_Red

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It's the kind of stuff that makes people disheartened about humanity as a whole sometimes. When do we grow the feck up to not repeat mistakes of the past?
I honestly do t think we ever will. Greed and selfishness are hardwired into our brains. Many of us are able to suppress it most of the time, but it seems that those in power self select for the worst of us.
 

harms

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But based on what especially @harms and @Demyanenko_square_jaw are saying here, I wouldn't be too optimistic about what that change could bring.

A new leader would probably try to back out of Ukraine ASAP given how the invasion is going for Russia, and that would be good, obviously. But otherwise, new leaders most likely would come from the current circles of the mighty and hence probably wouldn't be very different from Putin in their attitudes to democracy/autocracy. And given how the Russian people have been brainwashed, and will now be suffering due to the sanctions, the new leaders likely won't be any less nationalistic and anti-western either.

So that would be change, but not really for the better; more of the same, rather. And I think current western actions don't intend any different. The long-term plan isn't to improve things for Russians, but to seize on the current situation to crush Russia out of global significance, whatever the cost for the Russian people.

Not that I would know how things could be done differently, especially without a huge cost in turn for Ukrainians; but none of it leads to much optimism for me. As always, the High & Mighty make their moves (including the dead-end Russian propaganda that has brainwashed its population into supporting suicidal policies and actions), and the common people suffer.
The positive of this hypothetical change is that they would most likely want to ease up the sanctions, and I'd imagine that getting the army back out of Ukraine won't be enough to do so. Whoever hypothetically does this, they won't have the same political capital as Putin has as it's very much tied to his personality. They'll need to show economical growth etc., which is almost impossible to imagine without active collaboration with the outside world.

The negative is that everyone in Putin's close circle who can theoretically instigate that coup d'etat have been tied by blood — he made sure that anyone of significance were on the record supporting the invasion.

I'm done imagining positive scenarios though.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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I know that Bosnian Serbs tried to justify the Srebenica massacre in 1992, but that excuse never flew at all. The Kremlin can go feck themselves for even trying.

Ali Velshi calling for the curtain to drop
We need either NATO or UN-backed Blue Helmets to get in there regardless now. Russia should be forced into imposed recusal for whatever international vote is made on the situation in Ukraine. Honestly, I would push at the United Nations to revoke Russia's veto permanently.