Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Krakenzero

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Come on Raoul, we're discussing the absurdity of sanctions on a bunch of Russian/Belarussian tennis players as a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

I thought the goal of sanctions is to make Putin's war more difficult to wage, and don't see how banning tennis players who don't even compete under the Russian flag accomplishes that.
It's terrible, in war it's always the poor and the innocent in both sides that suffer the most.
 

Raoul

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Come on Raoul, we're discussing the absurdity of sanctions on a bunch of Russian/Belarussian tennis players as a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

I thought the goal of sanctions is to make Putin's war more difficult to wage, and don't see how banning tennis players who don't even compete under the Russian flag accomplishes that.
During which you apparently opted to bring up the Iraq war and Dubya.
 

stefan92

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Hm... doesn't convince me to be honest. There isn't much feeling of guilt towards the Russians especially, neither towards the Ukrainian. At least I never heard anybody talking this way here. Both Nazi Germany and Stalins SU where aggressive imperialistic states, there's not much difference between them.

The crimes and massacres performed by the Red Army essentially balance a lot of reasons to feel guilt. A lot of Germans are related to families who had to flee from the Russians (yes, the SU is commonly referred to by their largest member state name) towards the West and this is not forgotten.

I am quite sure that the difference is more about feelings developed in the 2000s when Russia was a reliable partner for Germany while Ukraine was a threat to our economy, not about some WW2 stuff.
 

do.ob

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Hm... doesn't convince me to be honest. There isn't much feeling of guilt towards the Russians especially, neither towards the Ukrainian. At least I never heard anybody talking this way here. Both Nazi Germany and Stalins SU where aggressive imperialistic states, there's not much difference between them.

The crimes and massacres performed by the Red Army essentially balance a lot of reasons to feel guilt. A lot of Germans are related to families who had to flee from the Russians (yes, the SU is commonly referred to by their largest member state name) towards the West and this is not forgotten.

I am quite sure that the difference is more about feelings developed in the 2000s when Russia was a reliable partner for Germany while Ukraine was a threat to our economy, not about some WW2 stuff.
The thread sounds completely made up to me. I agree that of the many countries that were wronged by Nazi Germany Russia is probably among the bottom in terms of "feeling guilt". To be honest it's so wide off the mark that if I was following that account I'd consider unfollowing it.
 
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RedDevilQuebecois

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Classified drone system they say? I really wonder if such system could be as terrifying as this (from Angel Has Fallen). Drones that pass up as a flock of birds or bats from afar before it is too late for the poor targeted blokes are a terrifying concept.

Utterly disgusting to speak of nuclear capability with such nonchalance.
 

MTF

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I hope the US continues to make absolutely no official public remarks about deterrence and its own nuclear weapons. Those who know, know. If anyone in the Russian govt needs reminding then let it be done in private, although I doubt even that is necessary.
 

Organic Potatoes

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GlastonSpur

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That’s a hell of a drive from Ukraine to set a solvent factory on fire.
I'm sure the Ukrainians have long had agents living inside Russia. They've had years to prepare for this, and it'd be much easier for them to blend in than it would be for a Westerner.

I'm not saying that sabotage definitely is the explanation here, but it could well be, especially given the nature of the two locations concerned.
 

YouOnlyLiveTwice

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I hope the US continues to make absolutely no official public remarks about deterrence and its own nuclear weapons. Those who know, know. If anyone in the Russian govt needs reminding then let it be done in private, although I doubt even that is necessary.
True. I think it's been clear that the west decided not to get drawn in on these nuclear threat talks.

Talking about nuclear weapons like anyone can win that kind of warfare is stupid.
 

sglowrider

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Just a little evidence that China will back Russia when it comes down to it. It's about authoritarian regimes working together to resist western pressure to be ethical.

That's just diplomat foreplaying. I wouldn't read too much into it. Judge the Chinese by their actions:

Thats a huge deal -- Unionpay is massive.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Just a little evidence that China will back Russia when it comes down to it. It's about authoritarian regimes working together to resist western pressure to be ethical.

Not being mad at you, but I will say that you better consider the Global Times into the "unreliable news source" category just like The Sun. In fact, they are what if North Korean propaganda and The Sun had a child. :houllier: :nervous:
 

sglowrider

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Not being mad at you, but I will say that you better consider the Global Times into the "unreliable news source" category just like The Sun. In fact, they are what if North Korean propaganda and The Sun had a child. :houllier: :nervous:
Precisely. Its just state media making everything sound perfect. The reality of the ground is quite different. The reality for China will always be about the Benjamins. They have way too much at stake to allow for a fractured non-functioning global economy.

The capitalistic commie cnuts.
 

frostbite

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I hope Ukraine will be able to hold for another month. After that, they will have much higher probabilities for a win over the Russians. One factor is that they will soon be provided with long range artillery. Another factor is that the US industry is developing weapons that will help Ukrainians beat the Russians. Obviously, US industry can provide weapons much faster than the Russian industry.

 

Rajma

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Essentially all heavy equipment is either used in international missions, needed for training or is not fully operational. I don't think that for example @Rajma in Lithuania would be very happy if the Bundeswehr has to withdraw from the NATO enhanced forward presence mission, because we give our tanks to Ukraine.

It's terrible that we have to think about such choices, and it makes us look both weak and stupid (rightfully so), but if I had to decide between throwing a NATO and EU member under the bus, or some random country we have no close ties or formal alliances to, I would always chose to stay faithful to our allies.

And by the way, saying that the US protected Germany for 70 years is just false, until 1990 there was no peace treaty after WW2 and those were essentially occupation forces willing to sacrifice Germany as a battle ground to be destroyed in WW3. This isn't exactly protection, and after the threat of the SU vanished the US weren't needed as protectors, they just stayed, used Germany as a logistics base and that's it.
I agree and think it’s mostly optics right now which don’t look great when it comes to German leadership. Basically, dragging their feet, slow on decision making when the time is of essence, no postponement of nuclear closure roadmap, also still some calls for normality to resume when the war ends etc. I think strong message would be incredibly important from Germany that there’s no coming back now for Russia under Putin when it comes to sanctions and backing it up with actions where it could be seen that you’ll try to achieve complete independence from Russian gas at the most pressing timelines possible.
 

Denis79

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Is there a genuine possiblity now that Ukraine with the help of NATO can drive Russia out?
Russians will leave at the first chance where Putin can save face or if he is removed from power. It's that fecking stupid this shitty war. The Russians can not win this but they won't be driven out as you say either. There is a good chance this war will be going on for this whole year.
 
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stefan92

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no postponement of nuclear closure roadmap
Just on this point: I see it often mentioned in relation to Germany buying gas in Russia, but there is very little correlation between the two. Gas is rarely used in Power plants here, it is mostly used for domestic heating and in the chemical industry.

The first would only profit from nuclear power if everyone would/could replace their heating systems, which is impossible to do on short notice, and the latter has no real options to move away from natural gas as a ressource at all.

So discussing the German nuclear strategy doesn't add much to the topic of this thread.
 

711

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Just on this point: I see it often mentioned in relation to Germany buying gas in Russia, but there is very little correlation between the two. Gas is rarely used in Power plants here, it is mostly used for domestic heating and in the chemical industry.

The first would only profit from nuclear power if everyone would/could replace their heating systems, which is impossible to do on short notice, and the latter has no real options to move away from natural gas as a ressource at all.

So discussing the German nuclear strategy doesn't add much to the topic of this thread.
Electric heaters aren't difficult. They're not as good as central heating but the difference only amounts to inconvenience, its not life-changing.
 

stefan92

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Electric heaters aren't difficult. They're not as good as central heating but the difference only amounts to inconvenience, its not life-changing.
The problem is the delivery times are already a disaster now, forcing everyone to buy would take a long time, it isn't a short fix. Replacing Russian gas with gas from other sources is the much more efficient way now.
 

GlastonSpur

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That totals up to 20.5k dead or missing. We can presume that most of the missing are dead, with a few being deserters. And I doubt that the missing include POWs, since I assume there's a mechanism in place - for prisoner exchanges etc - for informing the Russian authorities about those captured.

20.5k is only slightly less than the latest Ukrainian estimate of 21.2k Russians dead. I've thought for a while now that the Ukrainian figures are not that much of an exaggeration, and this seems to confirm it.

Using the Russian figures, and assuming 3 times as many wounded as dead (which is the usual rule of thumb), this means an astonishing 82,000 Russian military now out of action, not even including those captured.

Edit: I don't think the Russian figures even includes losses from troops raised in the breakaway regions, nor those from the Chechens and mercenary groups, as these are not formally considered to be Russian troops. When these are added into the mix, the above total could easily exceed 100,000.
 
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GlastonSpur

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Russians will leave at the first chance where Putin can save face or if he is removed from power. It's that fecking stupid this shitty war. The Russians can not win this but they won't be driven out as you say either. There is a good chance this war will be going on for this whole year.
This could be true, but I'm not so sure of it. Consider: it costs only $6,000 to make the cheapest switchblade drone. If the manufacture of these is ramped up, it means that 10,000 of these drones could be delivered for $60 million, or 100,000 drones for $600 million. The Russians have no defence against these.

How long would the Russian continue to hold their positions with 100 switchblade drone attacks raining down on them every single day for weeks or even months on end?
 

Denis79

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The problem is the delivery times are already a disaster now, forcing everyone to buy would take a long time, it isn't a short fix. Replacing Russian gas with gas from other sources is the much more efficient way now.
I don't know what the electricity prices look like in Germany but here people would not afford to heat their homes with electricity.
 
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Dans

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I don't know what the electric prices look like in Germany but here people would not afford to heat their homes with electricity.
They are going up massively.

My current contract charges about 27 cent per kwH.

I get offers now to extend in October when my current contract ends of up to 56 cents.

Somehow I found one for 35 and signed up to that, but I still don't know if I have missed something in the small print there!