The messaging here (Russia), albeit not stated so directly, is that Putin has to take all of Ukraine at this point. First Donbas (which will likely fall by the end of June), then the north, then Lviv, with the aim to have the entire country 'taken' by October. Putin (via Peskov) keeps saying that the 3 core aims of this "special military operation" given by Putin prior to the invasion (destruction of the Azov Batallion, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and Ukrainian neutrality) have not changed, and – this part matters most – he has “no doubts that they will be accomplished in full” (he doesn’t say stuff like this if he doesn’t strongly believe it’s a foregone conclusion). The Azov Batallion have already surrendered, neutrality is basically assured at this point, which leaves only the trickiest one: demilitarisation. Since the US are at least
saying they're committed for the long term, that means Putin needs Kiev (although literally an hour ago John Kirby at the Pentagon gave a press conference in which he said they need to be realistic about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine because "time is not on our side" - in other words, this looks like being over sooner rather than later, but I'm going to write more on that when I reply to an earlier post that was addressed to me about why I believe Ukraine can't win this war from here).
I've already stated my belief that there isn't going to be a meaningful counter-offensive (there is a massive disconnect between what Zelenskiy and Kuleba say in their rallying calls when addressing the likes of Davos or the American Senate, and what the actual generals on the ground like Zaluzhnyi are saying). Nowhere was this disconnect more pronounced than with the Azovstal fiasco. For months the powers that be in Ukraine and the West were building the Azov Batallion up as the bravest warriors who ever fought in battle (this despite their English Wikipedia page still to this day describing them as “a neo-Nazi unit of the National Guard of Ukraine”), issuing implacable assurances that they'll "never surrender" and would "only agree to an evacuation to a 3rd country".
There were some glaring problems with that narrative though, at least they were glaring to those of us who were closely observing the situation. While Zelenskiy and Kuleba were reassuring the Western democracies that their billions of dollars and euros were not being sent in vain, the "warriors" themselves and their families were criticising their own government...
https://censor.net/en/news/3339810/...t_watching_save_military_from_azovstal_marine
And begging (actually begging) everyone from Turkey's president...
https://news.yahoo.com/families-azov-fighters-ask-turkish-201138446.html
...to China's president...
https://news.yahoo.com/relatives-azovstal-works-defenders-ask-102818811.html
...to the Pope...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...appeal-pope-help-get-husbands-out-2022-05-11/
...to Elon frigging Musk...
https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-trapped-azovstal-begs-elon-musk-help-if-not-you-who-1705851
...to help "evacuate" them to safety.
That last plea, to Musk, was especially interesting because it was issued from the bowels of Azovstal by none other than Serhiy Volyna, commander of the much-feared 36th Marine Brigade, and he asked a very pertinent question to Elon Musk: "If not you, then who else can do it?" Excellent question Serhiy, and one that led us to a question that nobody in the Western media dared ask: why were these guys not begging the US government to help save them? Or the UK government? Or Zelenskiy himself? You know, people who claim to be ready to do whatever their "brave warriors" ask, and who actually COULD have saved them. These "heroes" (as Zelenskiy is keen to keep calling them) were reduced to begging the likes of Turkey, China and the Pope to save their lives and help them get to a 3rd country (instead, they've all been shipped off to Russian territory, which is exactly what they all - less than 3 weeks ago - vowed they'd never allow to happen).
That’s just one example from many I could give. Late last night Serhiy Haidai (governor of Luhansk) said the situation in the east is “dire” for Ukraine and said that they were outnumbered by 1 to 8 in terms of men and twice that in terms of equipment. Ukrainian commanders have also said that what they’ve been sent by the West is nowhere close to the kind of equipment they need to stand a chance of victory (this has been obvious from the beginning, the US and Europe is just sending them all the old crap they don't need anymore). Indeed earlier this month Zelenskiy issued an order that forbade the Ukrainian military from complaining on social media about the equipment they’re being given. And 2 days ago the BBC started noting that some people in Ukraine are starting to turn on Zelenskiy:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61570444
President Zelensky says that only diplomacy can end the war, but he has said that Russia must return to the positions it held before the invasion.
His allies, led by the US and UK, want to weaken Putin's Russia permanently. They have said Russia must not win.
Their critics say they'll fight to the last Ukrainian.
The currency of war is blood. As families bury their dead, more Ukrainians, like Mitri in Bakhmut, will question the blood price they are paying, and ask whether it is better to pay for a ceasefire with land - or lives.
And then of course you have the ludicrous spectacle of the EU bickering among themselves over how to legally circumvent
their own sanctions so they can continue paying Russia for its oil and gas; the result of Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel being in the unfortunate habit of announcing grand plans without first taking 15 minutes to figure out how in the hell to make it all happen without crippling their own economies.
Long story short, there’s a growing sense in this part of the world that the war has reached a turning point (it happened around May 7th when the Russian army won the Battle of Popasna; things shifted after that and we started to hear desperation creeping into the words of the Ukrainian generals). I know there are still some folk here on this forum who believe the “40 billion to Ukraine” will be a game-changer, but it won’t be. Firstly, has anyone who thinks this money will make a significant difference actually read up on where exactly that 40 billion is being spent? Less than half of that sum (19 billion) is being spent on "military support for Ukraine" (the other 21 billion is for humanitarian relief, support for US forces in Europe, DOD modernization programmes, help for refugees, and so on). And even then the remaining 19 billion is carved up into smaller packages, such that ‘only’ 6 billion is for (I quote) “
training, equipment, weapons, logistic support, supplies and services, salaries and stipends and intelligence support to the military and national security forces of Ukraine”. That’s it. The rest is for stuff like US weapons manufacturers to replenish their stocks. As John Kirby just said – time is not on Ukraine’s side here, and there’s a feeling that by the time what’s left of the Ukrainian army has been sent the weapons and trained to use them, it’ll effectively be 6 billion dollars down the drain.
My general point is, what I wrote earlier this week is still, to my mind, the most balanced interpretation of events. Unless all the people of the US, the UK and Europe are prepared to start bankrolling Ukraine to the tune of at least 7 billion euros a month (Zelenskiy’s figure) in the (ridiculous) belief that Russia is going to run out of artillery before the “40 billion” kicks in, then Ukraine can’t win this war. 3 months ago people in this thread were posting that “by June there will be nothing left of the Russian economy”. Well guess what, it’s now almost June and there is almost nothing left of the Ukrainian economy, because Russia has taken over 80% of it. People (well, one person, but I made sure to note it) said that by the summer Russians would be starving to death. Here we now are and the West is pretending to panic because they think Russia is about to starve the developing world to death. They said back in March that the Russian army would fall “in 3 weeks”. Here we now are and not a day goes by without Zelenskiy saying Ukraine will fall imminently unless America finally sends it proper weapons (never going to happen). Yet despite all of this there are still people here who seriously believe Ukraine is "winning" this war.
That’s my take. And again, I am intending to reply to those who replied to my earlier post (thank you to those who did) but it’s been a busy week for me and trying to write properly sourced opinions - as opposed to indiscriminately spamming tweets from Twitter nobodies - takes time. Full disclosure for what it’s worth, I live in the town of Pushkin, near St Petersburg, which is a military town, and is part of the reason why what I see with my own eyes does not in any way correlate to the Western narrative that was given in March and April about this war, I mean for example about how Russia’s “only tank factory” (I still laugh my arse off at that) can’t supply any more parts and so the army will collapse by the start of April, or that Putin is gravely ill with a coсktail of blood, bone, bowel, brain and bollock cancer. Yes, Russia made enormous mistakes at the start of this war, and Putin went into it with very bad intel, but he’s nothing if not extremely adaptable, he’s adapted, and he’s almost certainly going to win.
A fiercely unpopular Russian viewpoint, I know, but nevertheless one that is based in reality rather than emotion. Emotion improves many things but decision making and critical thinking aren't among them.
