Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

the hea

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I've recently heard that they can't just make an 180 on the shutting down of nuclear plants. They'd need more preparation time for it
According to the politicians yes. But if you listen to the actual people that run the plants, it's possible to keep them running.

 

MadMike

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Give ‘em couple dozen more HIMARS/M270, give ‘em 100 or so cheap M109 155mm guns, then watch them push that line back.

The cost of no not doing that (longer war) is higher.
 

TMDaines

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For real? I've seen it reported as being him but he's just pointing out Russia's failings to give them a kick up the arse or something. Or am I thinking of a different account?
Igor Girkin posts on Telegram in the manner you say. Does a lot of long ramblings on Russia's military strategy.
 

11101

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Can't be too enjoyable, Russians are seriously hated in Italy right now. I can't imagine the reception is too welcoming though I suppose there aren't actually many Italians in Venice.
 

Real Name

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Can't be too enjoyable, Russians are seriously hated in Italy right now. I can't imagine the reception is too welcoming though I suppose there aren't actually many Italians in Venice.
Or people are not aware who the guy is in general.
 

Simbo

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No wonder the moral is so high among the Russian troops, worst case scenario dad gets a brand new Lada.
Incredible what you can get away with and turn people into with complete media control and 24/7 brainwashing.

Westerners need to realise this is Putin's most powerful weapon and he's always known that.
 

the hea

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Judging by the damages in the video, the bridge has been hit by artillery rounds, that suggest that the Ukrainians are now able to set up artillery positions within 40km of the Dnepr. If that is the case they can also cover the highway towards Nova Kakhovka with artillery fire. The Russians will struggle massivly to resupply their troops in Kherson city if these two roads have been cut off.
 

frostbite

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Can't be too enjoyable, Russians are seriously hated in Italy right now. I can't imagine the reception is too welcoming though I suppose there aren't actually many Italians in Venice.
Unfortunately, multi-millionaires are not like us simple humans, so they don't really care what people think about them. Most of the people they interact with are like servants to them...
 
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ThierryFabregas

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Judging by the damages in the video, the bridge has been hit by artillery rounds, that suggest that the Ukrainians are now able to set up artillery positions within 40km of the Dnepr. If that is the case they can also cover the highway towards Nova Kakhovka with artillery fire. The Russians will struggle massivly to resupply their troops in Kherson city if these two roads have been cut off.
Forgive my ignorance of geography. Is this a bridge connecting 2 parts of the Ukraine or a bridge connecting Kherson to Russia? If it's within Ukraine isn't that going to make it very difficult for Ukraine to form any counter offensive in the future
 

the hea

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Forgive my ignorance of geography. Is this a bridge connecting 2 parts of the Ukraine or a bridge connecting Kherson to Russia? If it's within Ukraine isn't that going to make it very difficult for Ukraine to form any counter offensive in the future
It's the first and yes it would make it harder for the Ukrainians to cross the Dnepr but there are other bridges further to the east. The thing is the Russians would almost certainly blow up the bridge anyway if they retreated from Kherson, so it's possible the Ukrainians see it as already lost. The fact that they only hit it 2 or 3 times, inflicting what looked like just non critical damage could mean that they were just sending a warning to the Russians in Kherson, "get out now or risk encirclement".
 

Simbo

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Forgive my ignorance of geography. Is this a bridge connecting 2 parts of the Ukraine or a bridge connecting Kherson to Russia? If it's within Ukraine isn't that going to make it very difficult for Ukraine to form any counter offensive in the future
It's within Ukraine, Kherson City sits on the North side of the Dnipro River, of which there are only two bridges in the area linking it to Southern Ukraine and Crimea. For this reason, Kherson should never really have fallen in the first place with there being such bottlenecks, apparently Russia managed to buy those responsible for the areas defense however.

It would indeed make it very difficult for counter offensives further south if this bridge was destroyed, doubt they want that. I expect these are more like warning shots to let Russia know their supply/retreat route has now got artillery trained right on it.

On the other hand they may decide the only way to liberate Kherson is to take out these bridges, and that will be the priority. It may at least make the job easier and save Ukranian lives.
 

Raoul

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Forgive my ignorance of geography. Is this a bridge connecting 2 parts of the Ukraine or a bridge connecting Kherson to Russia? If it's within Ukraine isn't that going to make it very difficult for Ukraine to form any counter offensive in the future
Its obviously being done to restrict Russian troop movements and supplies. They can rebuild it after the war. Its not critical to the Ukrainians since they can move across fields and other unpaved land.
 

Sir Matt

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Forgive my ignorance of geography. Is this a bridge connecting 2 parts of the Ukraine or a bridge connecting Kherson to Russia? If it's within Ukraine isn't that going to make it very difficult for Ukraine to form any counter offensive in the future
Here is a map with markers of the two bridges near Kherson and the next closest bridge/dam, which is about 60 km upriver. As others have pointed out, the bridge allows for the Russians to resupply Kherson and maintain control on the East side of the river. If they are cut off, it would doom the occupation of Kherson and effectively preclude any future Russian offensive towards Odesa, which may allow the Ukrainians to reopen Odesa for shipping grain, etc.

 

ThierryFabregas

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Here is a map with markers of the two bridges near Kherson and the next closest bridge/dam, which is about 60 km upriver. As others have pointed out, the bridge allows for the Russians to resupply Kherson and maintain control on the East side of the river. If they are cut off, it would doom the occupation of Kherson and effectively preclude any future Russian offensive towards Odesa, which may allow the Ukrainians to reopen Odesa for shipping grain, etc.

Thanks for the explanation
 

Simbo

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Probably just postering rhetoric but worth noting.

 

the hea

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Probably just postering rhetoric but worth noting.

There have been reports in the last couple of days about Russia moving most of their ships away from occupied Sevastopol to Novorossijsk in mainland Russia. Maybe the Russians are expecting something in Crimea to?
 

VorZakone

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I think it's just talk. Don't forget, there is also an information and PR war going on.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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There have been reports in the last couple of days about Russia moving most of their ships away from occupied Sevastopol to Novorossijsk in mainland Russia. Maybe the Russians are expecting something in Crimea to?
If the fleet is moving away, then something big must be brewing on the South Ukrainian/Crimean front. With the HIMARS and Harpoon missiles now being game-changers in Ukrainian hands, it would make sense for the Russian Navy to get away as we now know that their CIWS are not up to the task.
 

tomaldinho1

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I know there's a lot of hyperbole but if HIMARS have made this much difference, are Russia's S300's just outdated/not fit for their task? It's not like HIMARS are a big secret that have been revealed and taken the world by storm.
 

the hea

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I know there's a lot of hyperbole but if HIMARS have made this much difference, are Russia's S300's just outdated/not fit for their task? It's not like HIMARS are a big secret that have been revealed and taken the world by storm.
It's impossible to know exactly what is the weak point in the Russian air defense, but Ukraine are definitely able to get their missiles through.

One thing that has been mentioned is the Ukrainians are flooding the targets with cheap Grad rockets before firing the Gmlrs missiles.
Another reason could be that the Gmlrs missiles electronic counter meassures are able to trick the Russian radars. Built in missile ECM capabilities are one of the most tightly kept secrets when it comes to missiles, so this is just guesswork.
Or it's just the Russian air defense systems that are not as good as everyone thought.
 

MadMike

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That radar is part of an S-400 system. It was struck presumably by a HIMARS/M270 strike while on a coastal town on the black area, south of Kherson.

If the Russian air defences in Kherson start to crumble, the rest of the pieces will fall like dominoes. Bayraktars will start operating more freely, picking off artillery positions and ammo depots.