Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Frosty

Logical and sensible but turns women gay
Joined
Jan 11, 2007
Messages
17,136
Location
Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

Russia will struggle to maintain its military campaign and Ukraine may be able to hit back, the head Britain's foreign intelligence service says.

MI6 chief Richard Moore said Russia had seen "epic fails" in its initial goals; removing Ukraine's president, capturing Kyiv and sowing disunity in the West.

He was speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, in a rare public appearance.

He called the invasion "the most egregious naked act of aggression... in Europe since the Second World War."

He said recent Russian gains were "tiny" and that Russia was "about to run out of steam".

"Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks," Mr Moore told the conference in Colorado. "They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike back."

That view may be seen as optimistic and Ukraine's ability to counter-attack may well depend on greater supplies of Western weaponry, which its officials say has often been too slow in arriving.

The MI6 chief said some kind of battlefield success would be an "important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign" - particularly ahead of a winter which was likely to see pressure on gas supplies.

"We are in for a tough time," he said. A further reason to maintain support to help the Ukrainians win, or "at least negotiate from a position of significant strength", he said, was because China's leader Xi Jinping was "watching like a hawk".

"There's no evidence that [President Vladimir] Putin is suffering from ill-health," he replied when asked, echoing comments from his US counterpart CIA Director William Burns at the Forum yesterday.

Around 400 Russian intelligence officers operating under cover have been expelled across Europe, he said, reducing Russia's ability to spy in the continent by half.

"Our door is always open," he said when it came to recruiting disaffected Russian officials to spy for Britain.
 

the hea

Full Member
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
6,279
Location
North of the wall

Ivan, 31, who requested anonymity to protect his safety, said he received just five days of training before being transferred to Ukraine and flung into combat.

“There was a soldier in our company who didn’t know how a machine gun works. So I taught that guy how to disassemble and assemble a machine gun. I wouldn’t want to be next to him in battle. How can you fight like that?” he told The Moscow Times.

“I was shocked. Some have not properly held a machine gun in their hands, have never seen real tanks in person, and they’re leaving for the frontline in a couple of days,” one anonymous soldier said last month in an interview with the BBC Russian Service.

Yevgeny Chubarin, 24, was killed in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region just four days after being transferred to the Belgorod military base on a three-month contract with the Russian military, independent news outlet Mediazona reported last month. “There was no training,” his mother Nina Chubarina told Mediazona. ”They arrived, got a uniform and a machine gun — and that’s it, go ahead.”
 

Cheimoon

Made of cheese
Scout
Joined
Jun 22, 2020
Messages
14,328
Location
Canada
Supports
no-one in particular
"I consider Germany and Netherlands the same thing" concerning their politics on the Russia - Ukraine war so far.

Do you disagree? Do you see any major differences?
Rather: can you point to some analysis, articles, or quotes that demonstrate how alike they are? Cause I know Dutch news quite well and think the Dutch government has been a lot more outspoken about its support for Ukraine.

(I am not sure in terms of material support, since the Dutch government hasn't been very forthcoming with that info. And anyway, the Dutch military is also severely underfunded, with mission readiness already at risk.)
 

RedDevilQuebecois

Full Member
Joined
May 27, 2021
Messages
7,792
Nuclear power plants only help with electricity. The Russian gas is mainly used for heating.

https://www.politico.eu/article/gas-crisis-germany-nuclear-power-debate/
It may because where I come from and because a country that ranks high in my interests (i.e. Japan) do things a certain way, but I have a hard time understand how there can be such a clear cut separation between electricity and heating when energy sources of choice can do both (hydroelectricity in Quebec; nuclear in Japan) albeit at various percentages. In any case, there must be a reversal and an expansion regarding German nuclear energy because necessity will demand those down the road.
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
5,949
Supports
Hannover 96
It may because where I come from and because a country that ranks high in my interests (i.e. Japan) do things a certain way, but I have a hard time understand how there can be such a clear cut separation between electricity and heating when energy sources of choice can do both (hydroelectricity in Quebec; nuclear in Japan) albeit at various percentages. In any case, there must be a reversal and an expansion regarding German nuclear energy because necessity will demand those down the road.
The problem is that most houses have a gas heating installed - they can't switch to anything electricity based quickly as they would have to install a complete new system. Therefore German houses usually have connection to both grids - gas and electricity. Take the gas away and you have massive trouble.
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,139
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
It may because where I come from and because a country that ranks high in my interests (i.e. Japan) do things a certain way, but I have a hard time understand how there can be such a clear cut separation between electricity and heating when energy sources of choice can do both (hydroelectricity in Quebec; nuclear in Japan) albeit at various percentages. In any case, there must be a reversal and an expansion regarding German nuclear energy because necessity will demand those down the road.
They can only do both if the infrastructure is already in place in housing, as noted above.

Also worth noting is they are including industrial processes in ‘heating’ but gas as a feedstock for chemical plants can be a much different animal than heating homes.
 

hellhunter

Eurofighter
Joined
Aug 5, 2011
Messages
17,994
Location
Stuttgart, Germany
Supports
Karlsruher SC
They can only do both if the infrastructure is already in place in housing, as noted above.

Also worth noting is they are including industrial processes in ‘heating’ but gas as a feedstock for chemical plants can be a much different animal than heating homes.
Last point being crucial with Germany's massive chemical industry

All that said, the nuclear power plants would still help making sure as little gas as possible has to be used for electricity
 

Gehrman

Phallic connoisseur, unlike shamans
Joined
Feb 20, 2019
Messages
10,998
It may because where I come from and because a country that ranks high in my interests (i.e. Japan) do things a certain way, but I have a hard time understand how there can be such a clear cut separation between electricity and heating when energy sources of choice can do both (hydroelectricity in Quebec; nuclear in Japan) albeit at various percentages. In any case, there must be a reversal and an expansion regarding German nuclear energy because necessity will demand those down the road.
I'm by any means not an expert. I'm just referring to authority.
 

Rajma

Full Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
8,571
Location
Lithuania
How embarrassing. How many life lessons do you need? Russia is only interested in humiliating and blackmail but Germany still falls for these tricks instead of taking a stance and not making itself a joke in front of the European partners. Not only that but they have also pressed Canada to disregard the sanctions for this to happen.
 

Rajma

Full Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
8,571
Location
Lithuania
The problem is that most houses have a gas heating installed - they can't switch to anything electricity based quickly as they would have to install a complete new system. Therefore German houses usually have connection to both grids - gas and electricity. Take the gas away and you have massive trouble.
Yes, but this way you can at least keep the lid on the electricity prices which are expected to be very high now in Germany when looking at the futures market. Mental policy.
 

tomaldinho1

Full Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2015
Messages
17,374
How embarrassing. How many life lessons do you need? Russia is only interested in humiliating and blackmail but Germany still falls for these tricks instead of taking a stance and not making itself a joke in front of the European partners. Not only that but they have also pressed Canada to disregard the sanctions for this to happen.
I remember reading about 10 years ago that Germany had almost gone 100% on renewables for a day or something to that effect - what on earth happened to all that investment?
 

WI_Red

Redcafes Most Rested
Joined
May 20, 2018
Messages
12,040
Location
No longer in WI
Supports
Atlanta United
I remember reading about 10 years ago that Germany had almost gone 100% on renewables for a day or something to that effect - what on earth happened to all that investment?
While renewable, powering things with laughter from Germans is not really sustainable. A day a decade sounds about right. :wenger:
 

Counterfactual

Full Member
Joined
Oct 1, 2019
Messages
3,289
Location
Mobil Avenue station
I remember reading about 10 years ago that Germany had almost gone 100% on renewables for a day or something to that effect - what on earth happened to all that investment?
I don't think it lasted the whole day. This is from 2018...

" Germany has crossed a symbolic milestone in its energy transition by briefly covering around 100 percent of electricity use with renewables for the first time ever on 1 January. In the whole of last year, the world’s fourth largest economy produced a record 36.1 percent of its total power needs with renewable sources."

"At around 6:00 am on 1 January, a combination of strong winds and low demand after New Year's Eve celebrations meant that wind power alone produced about 85 percent of Germany’s power consumption, according to data provided by the Federal Network Agency. Hydropower and biomass installations covered the rest, as there was no solar power generation before sunrise.

Coal, gas and nuclear power generation was cut to a minimum as power prices turned negative and surplus energy was exported to neighbouring countries."
 

tomaldinho1

Full Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2015
Messages
17,374
I don't think it lasted the whole day. This is from 2018...

" Germany has crossed a symbolic milestone in its energy transition by briefly covering around 100 percent of electricity use with renewables for the first time ever on 1 January. In the whole of last year, the world’s fourth largest economy produced a record 36.1 percent of its total power needs with renewable sources."

"At around 6:00 am on 1 January, a combination of strong winds and low demand after New Year's Eve celebrations meant that wind power alone produced about 85 percent of Germany’s power consumption, according to data provided by the Federal Network Agency. Hydropower and biomass installations covered the rest, as there was no solar power generation before sunrise.

Coal, gas and nuclear power generation was cut to a minimum as power prices turned negative and surplus energy was exported to neighbouring countries."
Yh it would have been around 2012 so a fair bit earlier than that. It might have just been a random demonstration for a day but I do recall them being so far ahead of most other countries for wind and solar and then they, somewhat ironically now, ended up producing so much wind energy surplus they decided to cut back.
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
5,949
Supports
Hannover 96
I remember reading about 10 years ago that Germany had almost gone 100% on renewables for a day or something to that effect - what on earth happened to all that investment?
As already posted multiple times, it is largely irrelevant in the current situation. Only a small part of the gas imports is used to generate electricity, and vice versa only a small part of German electricity needs is covered by gas power plants.

However a crucial point is that gas turbines can very quickly react to changing demand and are therefore needed to stabilize the grid (which has become even more important due to the large amount of renewable energy that tends to fluctuate). Therefore it is technically impossible to replace all the gas power plants with nuclear power plants as was suggested - those are just far too slow to react. They might help a bit, but everyone suggesting shutting down gas for nuclear simply doesn't understand how an electrical grid works.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
129,969
Location
Hollywood CA
As predicted. Putin will eventually run out of troops/ammo/and morale to keep this thing going. At that point the Ukrainians will start pushing forward, which is when things could get very dangerous as a cornered Putin with WMDs will know he can't afford to be perceived as a loser in Ukraine.
 

tomaldinho1

Full Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2015
Messages
17,374
As already posted multiple times, it is largely irrelevant in the current situation. Only a small part of the gas imports is used to generate electricity, and vice versa only a small part of German electricity needs is covered by gas power plants.

However a crucial point is that gas turbines can very quickly react to changing demand and are therefore needed to stabilize the grid (which has become even more important due to the large amount of renewable energy that tends to fluctuate). Therefore it is technically impossible to replace all the gas power plants with nuclear power plants as was suggested - those are just far too slow to react. They might help a bit, but everyone suggesting shutting down gas for nuclear simply doesn't understand how an electrical grid works.
Wasn’t really what I was driving at but thanks for the info.

Re renewables and the push for renewables. For a random example Germany is the 2nd biggest installer domestically of heat pumps in Europe (Sweden No1) and that market ballooned this year up 30% vs gas which only rose 6%. Obviously Germany has many more people than Sweden but how have they let themselves become so gas reliant?
 

frostbite

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,122
Rather: can you point to some analysis, articles, or quotes that demonstrate how alike they are? Cause I know Dutch news quite well and think the Dutch government has been a lot more outspoken about its support for Ukraine.

(I am not sure in terms of material support, since the Dutch government hasn't been very forthcoming with that info. And anyway, the Dutch military is also severely underfunded, with mission readiness already at risk.)
Sorry for the delay in replying this.

My impression (mainly from Greek news sources and TV) is that both Germany and Netherlands have about the same response to Ukraine so far. No real differences between the two. For example, about heavy weapons deliveries, which is the main issue during the past 3 months, everything I have heard on TV says that Dutch and Germany are practically aligned. And both of them are very slow, especially compared to US. Here is an example from a Greek newspaper, perhaps you can read it through Google translate.

https://www.tovima.gr/2022/06/29/wo...i-ollandia-stelnoun-nea-partida-vareon-oplon/

Is this the wrong impression? What are the main differences? Since you are Dutch you are definitely more informed than me about this. (However, what is "different" for you, may look the same for a Greek person. For example, are Californians and Arizonans different? Depends whom you ask. )
 

frostbite

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,122
And here is another, early example (Feb 24th):

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-scholz-opposes-inclusion-of-swift-in-russia-sanctions/

--- Scholz's rejection comes after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba publicly urged the EU in a tweet to ban Russia from SWIFT, adding that those who had doubts about such a move would have "blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children" on their hands.

--- Arriving at the summit, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admitted that a ban on SWIFT was "sensitive" for some EU countries "because it would also have an enormous impact on ourselves."

==============

Which was very different from the US-UK position:

---- U.S. President Joe Biden also indicated Thursday that the EU had reservations about including the payments system within joint Western sanctions.

---- U.K Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants Russia to be blocked from SWIFT and raised the issue in a call with G7 leaders Thursday, a British government insider said.
 

NotThatSoph

Full Member
Joined
Sep 12, 2019
Messages
3,757
And here is another, early example (Feb 24th):

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-scholz-opposes-inclusion-of-swift-in-russia-sanctions/

--- Scholz's rejection comes after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba publicly urged the EU in a tweet to ban Russia from SWIFT, adding that those who had doubts about such a move would have "blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children" on their hands.

--- Arriving at the summit, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admitted that a ban on SWIFT was "sensitive" for some EU countries "because it would also have an enormous impact on ourselves."

==============

Which was very different from the US-UK position:

---- U.S. President Joe Biden also indicated Thursday that the EU had reservations about including the payments system within joint Western sanctions.

---- U.K Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants Russia to be blocked from SWIFT and raised the issue in a call with G7 leaders Thursday, a British government insider said.
Excluding Russia from SWIFT must be on the table - Netherlands
 

frostbite

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,122
On the subject of Germany, here is a thread about what Scholz said (up to May 18). It would be interesting if someone compiled a more detailed chronology of German positions.

 

frostbite

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,122
And here is an interesting article in Politico (June 13). I don't know if any other leader of a major Western powers has been trying so hard to avoid making any decisions!

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-lost-in-communication-over-war-in-ukraine/


Some analysts said that Scholz did not want to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine because he did not want to escalate the western involvement and risk a nuclear war. Scholz was reasonable, or even wise, to be careful. But now Germany is providing PzH 2000 to Ukraine. No more fears of escalation? What has changed in the past two months?

Perhaps all this talk of "NATO escalation" was always meaningless? Perhaps the best policy today is to provide Ukraine with the best possible weapons (including a modern air force) as soon as possible?

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-artillery-big-german-gun-russia/31952218.html
 

Beans

Full Member
Joined
Aug 9, 2019
Messages
3,512
Location
Midwest, USA
Supports
Neutral
I remember reading about 10 years ago that Germany had almost gone 100% on renewables for a day or something to that effect - what on earth happened to all that investment?
Not sunny or windy enough, apparently, to provide enough power.
 

frostbite

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2021
Messages
3,122
About heavy weapons, another thread from last April, when it seemed that Germany does not want to provide any heavy weapons.

1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
4) Germany's defense industry leakes the list to Ukraine's ambassador.
5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.
6) The defense industry denies this and leakes the list to the press.
7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.
9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.
10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.
12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.
14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.
16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.
18) Scholz claims that there is no ammunition anymore for the Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
19) Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Egypt, the US, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Egypt respectively France are saying the produce these ammo types.
20) Scholz says countries delivering armored vehicles to Ukraine will be attacked by russia with nuclear weapons.
21) The US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, Netherlands, Denmark all report they were not hit by nuclear weapons.


 

Beans

Full Member
Joined
Aug 9, 2019
Messages
3,512
Location
Midwest, USA
Supports
Neutral
Great news, would be a great time for some seperatists in Russia to start making noise.

I know it's not pleasant to think about, but considering how hysterical Russia/Putin is about this war, it seems pretty likely to me that Russia will declare mobilization and a wide-ranging draft at some point, if needed.

Putin needs the people on board, he'll likely need Russian forces to be losing ground for weeks before the people will accept mobilization. But the good news is that NATO will have to increase their effort as well.