Saka 19, Sancho 21, Rashford 23. . . Why were these England’s 3rd, 4th & 5th Penalty Taker?

Jev

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You DON'T get it. Them counting equally has NOTHING to do with the amount of pressure one each penalty. The pressure in a shoot out increases per penalty and 4 and 5 are this the most difficult due to the pressure. Only the strongest takers and your mentally toughest should be on that duty for those 2 kicks. Its only in sudden death when all things are equal, and the pressure is the same and no one has a choice as to who takes what

I believe you are simply not serious if you imagine your opponents are going to miss ANY of the first 3 in a shoot out from 12 yards. For you are wrongly assuming your Keeper will save one of the first 3. If it happens it was just your luck.

Using your best takers there is likely to make you lose 9/10 times. I'm willing to bet England's penalty shoot out woes have often come down to that one factor. Their best takers are always lost early.
It's you who doesn't get it. Apart from the very obvious statistical argument, another reason to have your best penalty taker going early is that the pressure is relieved if you score the first few penalties and get a head-start (which is why the team going first wins 60 percent of shootouts).

I'm not talking about assuming anything. Simply, the statistical possibly that the fifth kick won't ever happen is a very good argument to not save your safest kicker until then. That's not assuming anything, that's just simple understanding of simple math.
 
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arnie_ni

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It's you who doesn't get it. Apart from the very obvious statistical argument, another reason to have your best penalty taker going early is that the pressure is relieved if you score the first few penalties and get a head-start (which is why the team going first wins 60 percent of shootouts).

I'm not talking about assuming anything. Simple, the statistical possibly that the fifth kick won't ever happen is a very good argument to not save your safest kicker until then. That's not assuming anything, that's just simple understanding of simple math.
Jorginho goes 4th for Italy for what it's worth
 
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No your not the freshest. You have low confidence because you haven't played much the whole tournament, you are being rushed onto the field in the last moment of one of the biggest matches of your career and you get 1 sec on the pitch not even touching the ball or getting a feel for everything. You literally know that you have no redemption it's all on one moment that if you get slightly wrong will be a red mark on your whole career. That's horrendous pressure
I get where you are coming from but honestly don't buy this at all:
1. It's not club football, there is no good reason for your self confidence to dip because you haven't been used a lot. Tournament football is true squad football. Unless your manager is just a shit man manager. You should be in fact chomping at the bit at finally getting a chance to make a contribution to the team.
2. It's a shoot out. Getting 'a feel of things' will NOT increase your penalty taking ability nor your ability to handle pressure. So I fail to see how coming on earlier would remotely help you.

3. It's the biggest game of everyone's career on the pitch. Unlike most of them you haven't played a grueling 120-50 minutes of football in it. I honestly fail to see how you can be less mentally fresh then them.

We''ll probably just have to agree to disagree.
 

saivet

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Penalty takerPenalties takenPenalties scoredPenalties missed
Domenico Berardi (Italy)40337
Andrea Belotti (Italy)35278
Leonardo Bonucci (Italy)110
Federico Bernardeschi (Italy)871
Jorginho (Italy)33294
Total (Italy)1179720
Harry Kane (England)50428
Harry Maguire (England)000
Marcus Rashford (England)14122
Jadon Sancho (England)330
Bukayo Saka (England)000
Total (England)675710

These stats don't include shoot-outs.
 
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It's you who doesn't get it. Apart from the very obvious statistical argument, another reason to have your best penalty taker going early is that the pressure is relieved if you score the first few penalties and get a head-start (which is why the team going first wins 60 percent of shootouts).
Your entire argument rises and falls on the misguided notion the opponents are likely to miss one of the first 3 penalties. Teams wining because they went first has nothing to do with what we are discussing.


I'm certain if you go first and use up your best 3 takers before you reach the last 2 penalties. 8/10 times you wont win. Because you WILL miss one or both of your last 2

I'm not talking about assuming anything. Simply, the statistical possibly that the fifth kick won't ever happen is a very good argument to not save your safest kicker until then. That's not assuming anything, that's just simple understanding of simple math.
Be serious please. Maths does not take into any account the pressure riding on each kick. The moment you rely on the 'simple maths' alone your are 100% assuming. Pick the wrong assumption and you will most likely lose the shoot out.
 

Jev

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Your entire argument rises and falls on the misguided notion the opponents are likely to miss one of the first 3 penalties. Teams wining because they went first has nothing to do with what we are discussing.
It doesn't and I'm not going to continue this discussion seeing as you clearly can't comprehend it. It's not based on an assumption, it's based on a statistical possibility which means you play your cards better by improving your chances of scoring the penalties you're certain are gonna happen. Let's leave it here.

You also chose to ignore my argument about early scorings relieving the pressure on latter penalty takers.
 
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Lee565

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Seemed really naive from southgate to think what players can do on a training ground in terms of practicing a penalty shootout can translate to the stage of keeping your nerves of taking a penalty in a euro final shootout.
 

DiMaria

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Rashford makes sense. Even sancho to some extent (but maybe not bring him on just to take a penalty as this puts even more pressure on the player). It is Saka that makes zero sense. The guy is 19 and you have him stand there all that time waiting to take what was always likely to be the decider. Awful decision by Southgate. Penalties are about nerves and experience just as much as they are about technical ability. Hitting them in practice should not be the only factor. Asking to take one as grealish supposedly asked is often a good sign. Look at how even a very confident young ronaldo evolved to be better at pens as he got older. So imagine Saka. Similarly mbappe who is already a World Cup winner and with a lot more experience than saka missed France’s last penalty. He is also relatively young and I imagine would be better in this spot the older he gets. And that’s mbappe not a 19 year old with close to zero experience.

This all being said England did not deserve to win that game. Italy played much better and England were too negative after they scored the opener. Even in extra time once the Italians were spent, Southgate didn’t bring on a runner who could have caused them problems like Rashford. Why not bring him or anybody else for sterling who was also obviously tired? Especially since sterling isn’t in your penalty plans. Just bad decisions but at the end of the day you can’t say the the deserving team did not win it.
 
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Fluctuation0161

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I get where you are coming from but honestly don't buy this at all:
1. It's not club football, there is no good reason for your self confidence to dip because you haven't been used a lot. Tournament football is true squad football. Unless your manager is just a shit man manager. You should be in fact chomping at the bit at finally getting a chance to make a contribution to the team.
2. It's a shoot out. Getting 'a feel of things' will NOT increase your penalty taking ability nor your ability to handle pressure. So I fail to see how coming on earlier would remotely help you.

3. It's the biggest game of everyone's career on the pitch. Unlike most of them you haven't played a grueling 120-50 minutes of football in it. I honestly fail to see how you can be less mentally fresh then them.

We''ll probably just have to agree to disagree.
If you don't think that being properly warmed up in a match has an impact on penalty taking, both physically and psychologically, then I think we'll have to agree you are wrong. :)
 

Zen

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If anythings ‘proven’ … it’s that there no statistical advantage in shootouts at all, well it’s ultra ultra marginal and merely coincidental where it is.

Seriously…

https://instatsport.com/football/article/penalty_research

Check the margins, also states how the rankings can contradict themselves when it comes to comparing club and international level… wild. It’s pens, you lost, move on…. impossible to analyse.
 
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It doesn't and I'm not going to continue this discussion seeing as you clearly can't comprehend it.
That's rich coming from you......

it's not based on an assumption, it's based on a statistical possibility which means you play your cards better by improving your chances of scoring the penalties you're certain are gonna happen. ......
As stated earlier: All you are doing is calculating the statistical probability of scoring without any regard what soever to the pressure that rides on each individual penalty in the first 5. The fact you do not get this serves to prove its you who simply doesn't comprehend what is being discussed not the inherent assumptions you are making as you do so.

You also chose to ignore my argument about early scorings relieving the pressure on latter penalty takers.
Because my earlier arguments in here already address that issue. You are basically implying if say you score your first 3 penalties, penalty 4 and 5 will have next to no pressure. Which is just plain naive. So yes, lets leave the discussion right here
....
 
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If you don't think that being properly warmed up in a match has an impact on penalty taking, both physically and psychologically, then I think we'll have to agree you are wrong. :)
If that were true. No one who scored a penalty in 90 minutes would then miss in the shoot out of that same encounter. Ever!
 

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Both Sancho and Rashford should have come on before 90 mins were up, not to warm them up for penalties, but because they’re explosive, game-changing players. I just don’t understand his tactics at all, it’s infuriating. What a pathetic way to lose.
 

Kajus

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You DON'T get it. Them counting equally has NOTHING to do with the amount of pressure one each penalty. The pressure in a shoot out increases per penalty and 4 and 5 are this the most difficult due to the pressure. Only the strongest takers and your mentally toughest should be on that duty for those 2 kicks. Its only in sudden death when all things are equal, and the pressure is the same and no one has a choice as to who takes what

I believe you are simply not serious if you imagine your opponents are going to miss ANY of the first 3 in a shoot out from 12 yards. For you are wrongly assuming your Keeper will save one of the first 3. If it happens it was just your luck.

Using your best takers there is likely to make you lose 9/10 times. I'm willing to bet England's penalty shoot out woes have often come down to that one factor. Their best takers are always lost early.
That is a staggering statistic and I would love to see your source on this.
 
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That is a staggering statistic and I would love to see your source on this.
You can do it too:
Simply go through shootouts from the last 30 years. World cup and euros.
Take a note of what penalties were missed in the 5. In shoot outs decided in the first 5
Try to find out which takers were rated higher than others
I believe certain patterns will reveal themselves to you. Even without relying on just the statistical data
 

Sandikan

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Both Sancho and Rashford should have come on before 90 mins were up, not to warm them up for penalties, but because they’re explosive, game-changing players. I just don’t understand his tactics at all, it’s infuriating. What a pathetic way to lose.
This is the main madness. Not the idea of attacking players taking pens because they're young!

Rashy was kitted up about 15mins before, yet we oddly brought him on at right back for a minute or so, cold for pens.
Was almost inevitable he and Sancho would miss in that setting.
 

Kajus

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You can do it too:
Simply go through shootouts from the last 30 years. World cup and euros.
Take a note of what penalties were missed in the 5. In shoot outs decided in the first 5
Try to find out which takers were rated higher than others
I believe certain patterns will reveal themselves to you. Even without relying on just the statistical data
So let me get this straight. You came up with a completely made up statistic and then it’s up to me to go through 30 years of penalty shootouts to see whether a random, unsubstantiated thought that popped into your head is correct. Right. :lol: :lol:
 

rakesh289

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Saka is the only one that Southgate got wrong, it should never have come down to a 19 year old playing in his first major tournament to take the most crucial kick, cannot blame the other senior players if the manager doesn't want you take the penalties in the first 5.
If Grealish or Sterling had volunteered and missed they would have been criticised more than they are now. Nobody would say they showed character and lead by example.

Rashford and Sancho have been very good penalty takers at club level, it was their time to contribute but they bottled it, plain and simple.

Rashford actually missed by inches and had deceived Donnarumma, he was concentrating too much on the keeper and didn't make the right contact.
 

arnie_ni

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He went 5th in both their shoot outs in this tournament?
Typo meant 5th. I'm not saying red Indian is correct, but Italy leave their best to last, the opposite of England, so its an interesting debate.
 

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Edit: Further edits as I missed the Nations League third place shootout!

All from Transfermarkt. I must confess and didn't realise until someone told me that TM's player data pages are weirdly missing a lot of high profile penalty shootouts, but they do include a random few. The exact numbers are therefore a little out. I strongly believe my main argument still stands though, which was that the cupboard was pretty bare after Kane and Rashford. I did quite a bit more manual research this morning and don't think anyone else has scored more than four penalties, in game or shootouts, for clubs at senior level, apart from Kane and Rashford. Sancho had scored 3/3 for Dortmund and one in the Nations League.

Maguire scored a couple for Leicester in shootouts and one in the Nations League, which made him a more obvious taker when you look further. But other than that? Grealish has scored one in a shootout for Villa but has only ever missed one during a game. Walker has scored one for Spurs in a shootout but right down at number nine or ten. Tripper has scored one for England but was unavailable, otherwise he would have likely taken one. Mount has another goal and another miss in shootouts for Chelsea. Sterling actually has scored in a shootout for City and England, but is 2-3 in matches. Phillips has scored one for Leeds. Shaw's penalty against Villareal was converted, but pretty crap way down the pecking order.

That still leaves you with Kane and Rashford as certainties. Maguire and Sancho the other players with at a couple of penalties taken and a 100% record at senior level. If Saka was performing well in training and you have faith in him, I can understand why. There's really not a good obvious candidate looking at all the data available.

The same manager's processes and approaches worked against Colombia and Switzerland. We shouldn't be too results-oriented after losing a single shootout.
Thanks for the additional context, and taking the time to explain it.

FWIW- I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis. It was just surprising for me just how much England’s players penalty records fell off a cliff after Kane and Rashford.
 

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Thanks for the additional context, and taking the time to explain it.

FWIW- I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis. It was just surprising for me just how much England’s players penalty records fell off a cliff after Kane and Rashford.
Weirdly at United we are now even more stacked with penalty takers, given Sancho has had a decent start to his career and had a good record at youth level, and Maguire is 4/4. Doesn’t mean shit when your keeper is a joke though.

Who’s be our favoured five? Bruno, Rashford, Cavani, Maguire, Mata? That still leaves Pogba, Sancho, even Martial and Greenwood to come.
 

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Weirdly at United we are now even more stacked with penalty takers, given Sancho has had a decent start to his career and had a good record at youth level, and Maguire is 4/4. Doesn’t mean shit when your keeper is a joke though.

Who’s be our favoured five? Bruno, Rashford, Cavani, Maguire, Mata? That still leaves Pogba, Sancho, even Martial and Greenwood to come.
Mmm…that is an interesting point… I’d have Pogba in my top 5, but point stands. At least our question is who do you leave out, rather than who do you put in.
 

saivet

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Typo meant 5th. I'm not saying red Indian is correct, but Italy leave their best to last, the opposite of England, so its an interesting debate.
Jorginho may be their first choice penalty taker but Beradi and Belotti are their two other most experienced penalty takers and they went no.1 and no.2 respectively as seen below.

Penalty takerPenalties takenPenalties scoredPenalties missed
Domenico Berardi (Italy)40337
Andrea Belotti (Italy)35278
Leonardo Bonucci (Italy)110
Federico Bernardeschi (Italy)871
Jorginho (Italy)33294
Total (Italy)1179720
Harry Kane (England)50428
Harry Maguire (England)000
Marcus Rashford (England)14122
Jadon Sancho (England)330
Bukayo Saka (England)000
Total (England)675710

These stats don't include shoot-outs.
 

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Jorginho may be their first choice penalty taker but Beradi and Belotti are their two other most experienced penalty takers and they went no.1 and no.2 respectively as seen below.
Interesting stat! Italian players experienced almost double the amount of pens! And I go out on a limb and guess that if shoot-outs would be included the gap would be even higher.
Just shows how incredible hard to understand Southgates approach was. He must have been super confident about winning a possible shoot-out since his whole approach made one quite likely. Weird.
Saka shooting his very first pen since being a pro footballer as 5th in such circumstances is plain mind boggling.
 

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I know where Southgate is coming from. He subbed out Henderson (who missed a penalty in World Cup). Southgate believed in fielding players who have never missed an important penalty before. He doesn't trust players who missed on big occasion before.

Stupid rule though for I believe players who had missed before must have practiced hard so they won't miss again.
 

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I know where Southgate is coming from. He subbed out Henderson (who missed a penalty recently). Southgate believed in fielding players who have never missed an important penalty before. He doesn't trust players who missed on big occasion before.

Stupid rule though for I believe players who had missed before must have practiced hard so they won't miss again.
It's impossible to practice an extreme situation like that. That's why it's never a bad idea to have rather experienced players take them since at least the whole situation isn't completely new to them. Or at least not let Saka take his - especially if two players missed right before him and his shot is not even about winning the shoot-out or staying equal at worst but that a miss would immediately mean total loss.

He should have somebody else figure out the whole approach then since he missed a really important one in `96 - I guess that mindfecked him a good deal so he ended up overthinking it way too much. Also, Kane practically missed his against Denmark, the game before, too.
 

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So let me get this straight. You came up with a completely made up statistic and then it’s up to me to go through 30 years of penalty shootouts to see whether a random, unsubstantiated thought that popped into your head is correct. Right. :lol: :lol:
:lol:
 

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Weirdly at United we are now even more stacked with penalty takers, given Sancho has had a decent start to his career and had a good record at youth level, and Maguire is 4/4. Doesn’t mean shit when your keeper is a joke though.

Who’s be our favoured five? Bruno, Rashford, Cavani, Maguire, Mata? That still leaves Pogba, Sancho, even Martial and Greenwood to come.
Goes to show the profile of player Ole looks for as much as anything.
 

Siezard

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Penalty takerPenalties takenPenalties scoredPenalties missed
Domenico Berardi (Italy)40337
Andrea Belotti (Italy)35278
Leonardo Bonucci (Italy)110
Federico Bernardeschi (Italy)871
Jorginho (Italy)33294
Total (Italy)1179720
Harry Kane (England)50428
Harry Maguire (England)000
Marcus Rashford (England)14122
Jadon Sancho (England)330
Bukayo Saka (England)000
Total (England)675710

These stats don't include shoot-outs.
Mancini most definitely have looked at statistics before deciding who to play. Southgate may have relied on gut feeling. He must have seen Maguire and Saka score a lot of penalties during training.
 

Siezard

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Weirdly at United we are now even more stacked with penalty takers, given Sancho has had a decent start to his career and had a good record at youth level, and Maguire is 4/4. Doesn’t mean shit when your keeper is a joke though.

Who’s be our favoured five? Bruno, Rashford, Cavani, Maguire, Mata? That still leaves Pogba, Sancho, even Martial and Greenwood to come.
Penalty shootout list
 

saivet

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Mancini most definitely have looked at statistics before deciding who to play. Southgate may have relied on gut feeling. He must have seen Maguire and Saka score a lot of penalties during training.
Southgate has said that it was largely based off training considering the other players in the squad either had a poor record from the spot (Henderson and Sterling) or are not penalty takers (e.g. Stones, Shaw, Grealish etc.). I still wouldn't have put Saka 5th but if Saka had been tucking them away in training and Grealish had a patchy record it makes sense to go with Saka over Grealish. Probably a sensible thing would have been to put Maguire 5th but even then I think it's all too hypothetical to give Southgate too much stick for it.

I guess the hope would be that more English players become regular penalty takers at their clubs. DCL, Phillips, Grealish and Rice are probably the only ones that could stake a claim any time soon.
 

IWat

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You keep refusing to acknowledge the elephant in the room. When you come off the bench for penalties. Mentally you are the freshest on pitch. I find it hilarious most people would happily sub on late a keeper believed to be a penalty saving expert. Yet in the same vein an outfield player is miraculously exempt from being able to do the same.
You don't need "feel" to save penalties. I used to play GK - Providing you're suitably warmed up, get a bit of touch with the balls and have whatever info is known - you're at the races. There is also far less pressure - The player is expected to score, you are not expected to save it as the keeper.
 

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There is also far less pressure - The player is expected to score, you are not expected to save it as the keeper.
I was asked about this and pretty much gave the same answer. A goalkeeper can't do any wrong in a penalty shootout. They have 5 chances to make a save (and if they make those saves they're heroes) as opposed to a outfield player having a single chance themselves. If you miss, you're the villain. If you score, you're not even the hero as it's expected.
 
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So let me get this straight. You came up with a completely made up statistic and then it’s up to me to go through 30 years of penalty shootouts to see whether a random, unsubstantiated thought that popped into your head is correct. Right. :lol: :lol:
Rather I'm not doing ANY home work for you. You lazy bum. Someone else up there posted a link to a website with nearly all the statistically data one could desire about penalties. Yet here you are not only asking me dumb questions but trying to be snarky about it to hide your laziness to find out for your self
 
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Kajus

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Rather I'm not doing ANY home work for you. You lazy bum. Someone else up there posted a link to a website with nearly all the statistically data one could desire about penalties. Yet here you are not only asking me dumb questions but trying to be snarky about it to hide your laziness to find out for your self
It’s not a matter of laziness or work. You were lying and making things up and I called you out on it.
 

TMDaines

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I was asked about this and pretty much gave the same answer. A goalkeeper can't do any wrong in a penalty shootout. They have 5 chances to make a save (and if they make those saves they're heroes) as opposed to a outfield player having a single chance themselves. If you miss, you're the villain. If you score, you're not even the hero as it's expected.
De Gea begs to differ.
 

lex talionis

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It was a brainless decision by Southgate to bring on Sancho and Rashford so insanely late and then expect them to beat Godzillaruma. And Saka...even more criminally idiotic.

Based on what we know of the form of the players who were playing that day for me it would have been, in whatever order:
  • Shaw
  • Sterling
  • Either Henderson or Grealish