You've misunderstood me here. Even if just 30% of people are immune, that will have a large effect as it becomes much more difficult for the virus to spread to new hosts.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
That is actually insane to think about.
Yeah, in the case of measles if I'm not mistaken herd immunity could be reach if at least +95% of the population was seroprotected because if I remember correctly each carrier infects at least one dozen of people and in some cases it's more than twice that figure.
Online a couple of the vets have been saying they've found animal coronavirus vaccines quite efficacious and it was mentioned in a Telegraph article here too. Of course it probably is a whole different kettle of fish but bovine coronavirus for which there is apparently an effective vaccine against has a 95% similarity to the human coronavirus OC43 which is one of the common cold causing strains
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ht-play-crucial-role-developing-sought-after/
https://www.zoetisus.com/products/beef/scourguard-4k.aspx
My colleagues says they draw the line at me discussing animal medicine so I haven't looked too much into the above in-depth mind you
I heard with animals that the tricky bit is cost effectiveness. I think a few potentially decent vaccines have been binned on that basis. Makes no sense to vaccinate animals with something that costs almost as much as the cow/pig/chicken it’s been given to!
I’m obviously way out of my depth when it comes to veterinary medicine but you can’t ignore the huge attrition rate when it comes to testing drugs in humans that seem to work very well in animals. I’ve never fully understood the biological differences that make this happen but it’s amazing how often a drug that causes a brilliant response in animals is completely useless in humans.
EDIT: Although I’m probably being too negative here. It is good news that we have effective vaccines in animals.
Could it be that they are the age group who take risks and think it is over, where the older generation are still wary and still take some precautions?
Possibly, but having witnessed the habits of some old people yesterday in a hospital I’m not convinced
Though humans are 96% similar to chimps and 80% similar to cows (DNA) so that 5% can be a pretty significant difference I guess
https://www.businessinsider.com/com...ll-share-about-60-of-the-same-dna-as-humans-8
Apparently we are also 60% similar to fruit flys, chickens and bananas
Still at the moment Im sure people are researching everything - isnt one of the anti virals something that was developed for ebola but was pretty inneffective with that yet seems to help with CV-19 ... who knows perhaps we get lucky and stumble upon something
If you look at the caf it makes sense, some of us are few apples short of a fruit salad.
Finding a good and easy treatment is more likely and better than a vaccine that (might) give a short time immunity imo.
Yes I take the points of lack of applicability between animals-to-humans of course and in many ways a human coronavirus vaccination that is effective and safe will be monumental and unprecedented, not doubting that. And we'll need to luck out to align on a lot of different things regarding a potentially successful vaccine.
And we shouldn't bank on a vaccine becoming available as a given whatsoever. The odds percentage wise on that are against us in terms of what we know from vaccine manufacturing before but I also am not putting aside that approaching finding a vaccine through multiple different avenues (e.g. adenovirus, novel mRNA technology) is a plus in terms of tilting the balancing of those odds to finding something that works.
And we shouldn't bank on a vaccine becoming available as a given whatsoever. The odds percentage wise on that are against us in terms of what we know from vaccine manufacturing before but I also am not putting aside that approaching finding a vaccine through multiple different avenues (e.g. adenovirus, novel mRNA technology) is a plus in terms of tilting the balancing of those odds to finding something that works.
I might be talking complete bollocks here, but isn't animal DNA entirely more complex than that of a virus? Like a 5% difference in a pair of sequences that have 1,000,000 characters denotes a far greater number of individual departures than a sequence of only 1,000 characters.
Opposite of worrying no? Means the most at risk group are being the most cautious. We’ve seen what a large amount of young people have been doing over the last month as well.
Cheers mate, that makes sense
UK 48 deaths, 512 cases.
Was 136 last Fri so well on course to have a lot less.
Was 136 last Fri so well on course to have a lot less.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12347159
well that’s not great. Hopefully nothing
well that’s not great. Hopefully nothing
Don't know if anything has been posted here, but there is an outbreak of unknown pneumonia in Kazakhstan which the Chinese claim is deadlier than Covid-19.
Over 600 people seem to have died of it in June, but Kazakhstan denies it is worse than covid-19.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/10/asia/kazakhstan-pneumonia-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html
Over 600 people seem to have died of it in June, but Kazakhstan denies it is worse than covid-19.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/10/asia/kazakhstan-pneumonia-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html
Just what we need. Not enough viral pneumonia around at the minute.
Surely you’d expect this is linked to COVID-19? Would be too much of a coincidence not to be
you would imagine it would show up in tests if that was the case
On the positive side, the pandemic restrictions worldwide should be enough to hinder this disease from exploding into a pandemic like covid-19 I guess. Hopefully. We will propably learn the truth of this soon enough, I do not know if Kazakhstan is the kind of nation to downplay stuff for political reasons.
If they’re testing.
Thanks for the link. Kind of strange this. 28K Pneumonia patients hospitalised and tested negative? 15 million citizens and 28k non-covid pneumonia patients. Maybe they use faulty tests or maybe there has been very cold weather and people not wearing enough clothes 
"Some 28,000 pneumonia patients with negative coronavirus tests are hospitalised in Kazakhstan, deputy health minister Azhar Giniyat said. "
"..the Kazakh health minister Alexei Tsoi acknowledged his country faced numerous cases of 'viral pneumonia of unspecified etiology [cause]'. "
"The ministry said its tallies of bacterial, fungal and viral pneumonia infections, which also included cases of unclear causes, were in line with World Health Organisation guidelines. "
"Some 28,000 pneumonia patients with negative coronavirus tests are hospitalised in Kazakhstan, deputy health minister Azhar Giniyat said. "
"..the Kazakh health minister Alexei Tsoi acknowledged his country faced numerous cases of 'viral pneumonia of unspecified etiology [cause]'. "
"The ministry said its tallies of bacterial, fungal and viral pneumonia infections, which also included cases of unclear causes, were in line with World Health Organisation guidelines. "
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Article also mentions that the ‘work from home if you can’ message could soon be dropped.
How does this work? I've always been fascinated, do the antibodies permanently reside in your immune system afterwards?
Masks are mandatory on public transport in Ireland from Monday
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/...ar-who/video/ed16fdc6288a75ea21e285dc292a213b
WHO about the "new" pneumonia in Kazakhstan. "Suspects false negatives but keeps an open mind".
WHO about the "new" pneumonia in Kazakhstan. "Suspects false negatives but keeps an open mind".
Its blatantly Covid, just sounds like Chinese propaganda to move it away from themselves.
People in 3 months:
”WHO said it was false negatives 3 months ago! They are a propaganda tool for China!”
It largely depends on the original R. The higher the R the higher the % of those who need to be immune to achieve herd immunity (i.e. the Ro is lowered to below 1).
In the case of SARS-CoV-2 the R isn't known for sure but is likely to be between 3 and 6 which means we need between 60% and 85% of people to be immune to get herd immunity.
Good news about masks becoming mandatory in shops.
Question:
1. In maybe 3 months, flu season will start, and nearly everyone will get a cold. Do you think everyone will have to be tested for Covid at that point? Or due to the numbers and stress on the NHS, will people just get told to isolate for 2 weeks?
2. If you have a cold, or the flu, are you then more likely to catch Covid and have a more severe illness? Or will it not make much of a difference?
Question:
1. In maybe 3 months, flu season will start, and nearly everyone will get a cold. Do you think everyone will have to be tested for Covid at that point? Or due to the numbers and stress on the NHS, will people just get told to isolate for 2 weeks?
2. If you have a cold, or the flu, are you then more likely to catch Covid and have a more severe illness? Or will it not make much of a difference?
Because we can't get 92% of the population to protect themselves.
1. Probably follow a path of testing for flu first, and then testing for Covid if those come back negative.
2. If you catch a common cold caused by a coronavirus you'll get a bit of immunity to Covid, not full immunity but it would make any subsequent Covid infection less severe. Flu and Covid go through different receptor pathways and you can theoretically get both at the same time. Which if it happened could cause upper and lower respiratory tract infections which would certainly be worse than either one on their own.
Do we know this is true? I have wondered if it could help, much like a flu vaccine offten helps a bit even if it doesn't target the strain you catch but I haven't seen any evidence for it yet. Would be good news if so.
Any south african that can explain how is the situation there?
infection rates are +12K and exponentially growing
infection rates are +12K and exponentially growing
Antibodies reduce over time naturally, but the immune response will be reactivated it recognises the virus and that immune response will create more of those antibodies again.
From a viral point of view you generally have immunity for life if the virus doesn't mutate (which they all do over a period of time). If it does mutate enough, the immune response will have to relearn and create new antibodies.
Antibodies aren't the only immune response though. There are various cells in the immune system and B Cells create antibodies. There is evidence that T Cells have an impact on COVID and that is good news as there has now been some evidence that T Cell immune response can be across coronaviruses.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-common-cold-could-provide-immunity-covid-19/
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Yeah but to be fair he can't see
