SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

MTF

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That is true. Going 18-24 months with handicapped economy is not something you can climb out of by government stimulating economy. Even 2-3 months is a massive gap to catch up, as it virtually means most households will lose their income for that period and will have it significantly reduced in the months following lockdown. Obviously there are a lot of people who can survive that but there are many times more who can barely do that. And conspiracy nutters actually believe someone will benefit from it.
The simple way to think of it is that there is a bill to pay, and it will be paid. We put it on the government account because no other entity in society can borrow as much money at such low rates. Then it gets paid over a span of many years, maybe a decade or more. But paying it means either higher taxes, lower spending (services) or inflation, or a combination of the 3. Higher taxes as the main source is probably the "best" way to do it, but people need to review the make-up of the GDP again to realize that just "tax the rich" isn't even enough to cover something of this size. Everyone who has an income or buys products will be paying added taxes to what they did before. The worst case scenario is that the near-term disorganization of your economy due to job losses and business foreclosures means that for years you're stuck at lower output/GDP and high unemployment.

Another thought experiment to think through this: if you were living in a fully socialist society where the government owns all enterprise and you don't have personal or corporate debt, but you still have a currency and wage rates for how much people are paid, right now you would be asking people in the essential parts of the economy to continue working while those in those that can't operate sat at home to the extent that they couldn't be redirected to other functions due to lack of expertise or sheer logistics. But you would actually have to pay the people still working (and probably working harder) less than you did before, because you need to account for all the other goods and services that aren't being produced so they can't consume. Even in that situation you realize there is always a cost to be paid for shutting down a large part of the economy for any period of time.
 
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Sarni

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It’s exactly the way to handle it. Why wait until you are in the hundreds to inevitably enact exactly the same measures when you can have far greater benefit from an early lock down? They have the benefit of every other country’s hindsight now, it’s futile hoping the virus won’t spread, it will and it will kill people.
But you are inevitably going back and forth with that until vaccine is produced. Which may be never. Depends whether your society is prepared to spend months/years doing that. Some will be better prepared than others.

At some point world will have to go back to normal though and we will treat this virus as we treat any other.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I think people just dont care anymore. Isolation fatigue.

My own mother went to a BBQ last week and I gave her a lecture and she replied " i dont care anymore" - "my life is not worth living as it is". "Stuck alone in the house all day. Ill take my chances".
She is 65 and not the fittest person in the world.
I get that. We’re all a bit jaded by it. Surely to feck people can cope with not shaking hands a while longer?!?
 

SilentWitness

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Scottish results released today. I feel for a lot of those kids and the impact Covid has made on them. As someone who just finished a Masters before this happened I've struggled like hell to get a job but at least I completed it whereas these kids were in the midst of their exams.

Aiden from Falkirk said he had been predicted to get three As and a B in his Highers but was given a B and 3Cs
Grades were predicted from prelims and then some were adjusted based on 'historic grades at that school' so people are being penalised for what people achieved at that school previously so the assessment of individuality is rank.
 

Sarni

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I get that. We’re all a bit jaded by it. Surely to feck people can cope with not shaking hands a while longer?!?
This is what I don't get. I understand people being bothered being locked down for weeks or months, not being able to leave their homes. I get very annoyed when people are talking about their freedom being restricted and protesting when the only thing they are required to do is to wear a mask for 10 minutes while in a shop. Literally the only reason to refuse wearing a mask is to make a statement about 'not buying into pandemic lie' which is obviously extremely dumb.
 

McGrathsipan

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This is what I don't get. I understand people being bothered being locked down for weeks or months, not being able to leave their homes. I get very annoyed when people are talking about their freedom being restricted and protesting when the only thing they are required to do is to wear a mask for 10 minutes while in a shop. Literally the only reason to refuse wearing a mask is to make a statement about 'not buying into pandemic lie' which is obviously extremely dumb.
the irony is that the pricks that wont/dont wear masks will be the causation of more serious lockdowns.
This virus is here for a few years!!
 

djembatheking

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Wet and windy in North Wales today so the beaches were off limits. Shops and pubs were heaving though , no masks , not required in Wales.
 

Sarni

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the irony is that the pricks that wont/dont wear masks will be the causation of more serious lockdowns.
This virus is here for a few years!!
Idiots have covered themselves for second wave though. All conspiracy groups here say the true virus will be unleashed by Gates & WHO in the Autumn, so it we do get second wave being more deadly than the first one, they will still maintain they were right. The key is to not allow yourself to be vaccinated (and chipped) and refuse to use 5G.
 
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That's not expected though is it? Diagnosis rates fell because they were doing less testing? Extremely difficult to balance testing facilities with the requirements needed for pandemics.
It’ll cost a shit load of lives that’s for sure. A lot of young life too. And yes, it was not unexpected.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Scottish results released today. I feel for a lot of those kids and the impact Covid has made on them. As someone who just finished a Masters before this happened I've struggled like hell to get a job but at least I completed it whereas these kids were in the midst of their exams.



Grades were predicted from prelims and then some were adjusted based on 'historic grades at that school' so people are being penalised for what people achieved at that school previously so the assessment of individuality is rank.
It's quite shite that someone can be affected negatively purely because of where they live. Meanwhile Timmy who likes to put pens up his cat's arse and eat newspaper gets a higher grade because he lives in a country manor up in Cupar...
 

SilentWitness

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It's quite shite that someone can be affected negatively purely because of where they live. Meanwhile Timmy who likes to put pens up his cat's arse and eat newspaper gets a higher grade because he lives in a country manor up in Cupar...
Yep. My cousin passed history in her prelim. Her results gave her a fail in History. :confused:
 

Wibble

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Wibble

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It's quite shite that someone can be affected negatively purely because of where they live. Meanwhile Timmy who likes to put pens up his cat's arse and eat newspaper gets a higher grade because he lives in a country manor up in Cupar...
Don't diss the Eton entry exam. And without that how are you going to know how to put your old fella in a pig's head Cameron style when you get automatic entry to Oxford or Cambridge?
 

oates

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It's quite shite that someone can be affected negatively purely because of where they live. Meanwhile Timmy who likes to put pens up his cat's arse and eat newspaper gets a higher grade because he lives in a country manor up in Cupar...
No one from that background is called Timmy.
 

entropy

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Where's my arc, Paulie?
Don’t know about coming into the country but you shouldn’t see too many restrictions passing between states on the roads/rail/air.
Some states ask you to self quarantine for 14 days if you come in to a low risk state from a high risk state (eg traveling into NY from FL).
AFAIK though they are not enforcing that quarantine.
What’s your itinerary?
I was going to travel to Amherst but thinking of postponing it. I also have folks visiting me from other states so I wanted to know what the procedure was either way.
 
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And virtually no change at all in NZ and very little in Australia. Vic is now going to take a bit of a hit but everywhere else is carrying in with all elective testing, procedures and operations. Another reason, as well as economic, why hard early lockdown is a good idea.
Yeah it goes almost without saying that NZ is doing better in all aspects.

Another 700 odd cases today in Australia, how many in Victoria Wibs? Was it too early to talk about being past peak yesterday or is Victoria doing better?
 
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Stack

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This is weird and I am sure we will see a big jump by the 4th quarter but our Unemployment figures in NZ for the second quarter just came out and they have actually gone down. From 4.2% to 4% unemployed. The wage subsidy looks to have done its job during the lockdown period in keeping a lot of jobs but there is no doubt in my mind that that figure will jump. How much by Im not sure because right now the majority of businesses are very busy. retail spending up on the same time last year and exporters at full speed.
 
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This is weird and I am sure we will see a big jump by the 4th quarter but our Unemployment figures in NZ for the second quarter just came out and they have actually gone down. From 4.2% to 4% unemployed. The wage subsidy looks to have done its job during the lockdown period in keeping a lot of jobs but there is no doubt in my mind that that figure will jump. How much by Im not sure because right now the majority of businesses are very busy. retail spending up on the same time last year and exporters at full speed.
Surely the South Island ski resorts are taking a bit of a hit although I guess Kiwis are forced to staycations this winter so maybe it has barely effected them. Lockdown was short so not too surprising that other sectors aren’t so badly affected.
The bigger hit will surely come when the Summer kicks in with no tourists.
 
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Wibble

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Yeah it goes almost without saying that NZ is doing better in all aspects.

Another 700 odd cases today in Australia, how many in Victoria Wibs? Was it too early to talk about being past peak yesterday or is Victoria doing better?
All bar a handful are in Victoria. So much for yesterday's 5 day average looking hopeful. The real worry (or one of them) is that this level of infection makes contract tracing even harder as I think each infect needs about 9+ calls so 6000 calls per day is going to overwhelm them soon. There is talk of stage 5 lockdown but nobody seems to know what that means.

I guess it could now be another week before we see a dip from the Stage 4 lockdown. NSW is hanging in there with only another 12 cases today. Annoyingly we still have 1 or 2 a week of unknown community transmission with the rest directly connected to known clusters or just arrived from overseas and in quarantine. SA have a couple of imported case from Victoria and have gone to instantly increased restrictions (not quite to stage 3) to try to make sure it doesn't get out into the community - they had been Covid free for quite some time. Qld are similar. WA, NT, and ACT are still covid free and have been for some time.

Economically not eliminating when we had the chance has been a right royal feck up. NZ travel bubble won't happen this year if ever, more billions in economic hit die to the Vic shutdown and business has dived in NSW where people have become reluctant to go out for meals etc whereas a week ago trade was almost back to normal. I feared this when the Federal government pushed for an early opening up but this is worse than I imagined. Embarrassingly the government withdrew from a court action that was trying to force WA to open their border. I finally thought our federal government hadn't totally fecked something up. They were doing so well and then reverted to type. They should stick to torturing brown people in offshore gualgs which they are good at.
 
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Wibble

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Surely the South Island ski resorts are taking a bit of a hit? The bigger hit will likely come when the Summer kicks in with no tourists.
It will as Australians and other overseas visitors usually are a large part of the customer base. Of course now that all those brash Aussies aren't there maybe Kiwis will ski more? ;)
 
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It will as Australians and other overseas visitors usually are a large part of the customer base. Of course now that all those brash Aussies aren't there maybe Kiwis will ski more? ;)
Yeah I edited my post to say just that, staycations might save the ski resorts I guess. Summer is going to be a big challenge though unless the sheep fancy paying to visit Fox Glacier or Hobbiton.

@Wibble @Stack, a question on different matter here. We had to move our wedding from June this year to end of May 2021. We have a couple of dozen coming from Aus/NZ (as we both used to live in Aus, the missus for 7 years) when we moved it we thought it was never going to be an issue next year (doh). Just wondering, what is the situation like now for Aussies/Kiwis leaving the country and returning home? Is there any news/talk of how these trips might look in the future?
 
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Wibble

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Yeah I edited my post to say just that, staycations might save the ski resorts I guess. Summer is going to be a big challenge though unless the sheep fancy paying to visit Fox Glacier or Hobbiton.

@Wibble @Stack, a question on different matter here. We had to move our wedding from June this year to end of a May 2021. We have a couple of dozen coming from Aus/NZ (as we both used to live in Aus, the missus for 7 years) when we moved it we thought it was never going to be an issue next year (doh) what is situation like now for Aussies/Kiwis leaving the country and returning home? Is there any news/talk of how these trips might look in the future?
We are essentially banned from international travel until further notice and I foresee this being the case for at least the rest of the year.

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia

A friend's daughter was prevented from travelling to her grandfather's funeral in Japan but his ex-wife was allowed to go (as she had a joint AU/Japanese citizenship) - she had to go into quarantine when she returned. Now there are restricted numbers of arrivals allowed now and quarantine costs $3000 on top of the expensive flight - free until a couple of weeks ago. Another friend's son has been allowed to go back to Uni in the US from Perth but he is a NZ citizen so maybe that made a difference.

I'd say nobody will be travelling for leisure before 2021 at the earliest.
 
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We are essentially banned from international travel until further notice and I foresee this being the case for at least the rest of the year.

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia

A friend's daughter was prevented from travelling to her grandfather's funeral in Japan but his ex-wife was allowed to go (as she had a joint AU/Japanese citizenship) - she had to go into quarantine when she returned. Now there are restricted numbers of arrivals allowed now and quarantine costs $3000 on top of the expensive flight - free until a couple of weeks ago. Another friend's son has been allowed to go back to Uni in the US from Perth but he is a NZ citizen so maybe that made a difference.

I'd say nobody will be travelling for leisure before 2021 at the earliest.
Cheers for the link pal, appreciated. Let's hope quick tests and other solutions can help us all out in 2021. Fingers crossed.
 

Wibble

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Cheers for the link pal, appreciated. Let's hope quick tests and other solutions can help us all out in 2021. Fingers crossed.
I think it is going to take a vaccine. Lets hope we either develop our own or our federal government don't bring their usual level of incompetence to obtaining a supply of overseas developed vaccines.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Yep. My cousin passed history in her prelim. Her results gave her a fail in History. :confused:
Keir Bloomer, the commissioner on "school reform" has come out defending it because teachers were too optimistic in poorer areas and it's discrimination against kids who go to better schools, or some shite. I don't even know where to start with his crap.

In order to maintain the disparity between rich and poor schools they overrode the recommendations of the very people who saw these kids day in and day out, even if said kids did well in their preliminary exams earlier in the year.... Unreal.

Then again, Mr Bloomer poses as a fair person but the reality is that he's merely the head of a think tank that push Tory ideals about marketisation and further disparity between rich and poor schools. No idea why the BBC and others are portraying him as a neutral, let alone giving him air time.
 
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Stack

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Surely the South Island ski resorts are taking a bit of a hit although I guess Kiwis are forced to staycations this winter so maybe it has barely effected them. Lockdown was short so not too surprising that other sectors aren’t so badly affected.
The bigger hit will surely come when the Summer kicks in with no tourists.
The tourism thing is an interesting one. A lot of people assume its a huge part of the economy and it is important but it makes up just 4.6% of our gdp. We are by and large an export country with exporting based around, farming, horticulture, forestry and similar primary industries. Our unemployment will rise but the tourism angle is a long way from being the backbone of our economy or even one of the main pillars.
Having said that 4.6% still equates in NZ terms to significant amounts of money so I shouldnt be minimising it as I have.
The shit will hit the fan when the businesses that were already tight find they cant keep going once the final wage subsidy ends. Probably up to 10% unemployed by xmas I think.
 
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Stack

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Yeah I edited my post to say just that, staycations might save the ski resorts I guess. Summer is going to be a big challenge though unless the sheep fancy paying to visit Fox Glacier or Hobbiton.

@Wibble @Stack, a question on different matter here. We had to move our wedding from June this year to end of May 2021. We have a couple of dozen coming from Aus/NZ (as we both used to live in Aus, the missus for 7 years) when we moved it we thought it was never going to be an issue next year (doh). Just wondering, what is the situation like now for Aussies/Kiwis leaving the country and returning home? Is there any news/talk of how these trips might look in the future?
We can leave but there is the mandatory 2 week quarantine on returning plus the hot debate on whether or not the Govt will charge returning kiwis $3000 costs for the quarantine. There is talk about shortening the quarantine time of tests at both borders can be trusted and reliable.
 

F-Red

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The bar in Aberdeen with the 13 cases, seemed to be linked to a group last Sunday.

I was in on Wednesday, and they have all our details, but haven’t been contacted for a test. I assume that we should be fine to go ahead as normal?
They've ordered all pubs, cafe's and restaurants to close in Aberdeen just now.
 

Solius

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We took the home test today. No symptoms really but gf had a sore throat and felt a bit tired so an app she is using told her to test.

Could barely swab my tonsils. My tongue gets in the way when I try to look :lol: Nose bit was fine though, stuck that shit up to my brain.
Both negative!
 

lynchie

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Keir Bloomer, the commissioner on "school reform" has come out defending it because teachers were too optimistic in poorer areas and it's discrimination against kids who go to better schools, or some shite. I don't even know where to start with his crap.

In order to maintain the disparity between rich and poor schools they overrode the recommendations of the very people who saw these kids day in and day out, even if said kids did well in their preliminary exams earlier in the year.... Unreal.

Then again, Mr Bloomer poses as a fair person but the reality is that he's merely the head of a think tank that push Tory ideals about marketisation and further disparity between rich and poor schools. No idea why the BBC and others are portraying him as a neutral, let alone giving him air time.
Genuinely thought this was some sort of obscure nickname you'd given to the leader of the opposition, and was genuinely confused by why he would take such a position.
 

lynchie

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Sorry - I was reading the hospital deaths rather than deaths in all settings.
The deaths in all setting is fairly useless at this stage. If you look at the ONS data, which is the best source even though (or because) it's 2 weeks behind, hospital deaths have always been the majority of deaths from Covid.