SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[finneh]

You could get a test same day from numerous locations where I am (Greater Manchester) until it started kicking off again a couple of weeks ago.

I don't doubt that there's also an element of "postcode lottery" in fairness. There's also the disparity between tests sent out and tests processed. I was sent a random test for example which I carried out but it was never collected. I went online for the tracking info and Hermes said it was collected (it wasn't). That must have happened to thousands of tests that were completely wasted.

Still though even a couple of weeks ago cases were relatively low (c. 3000 a day) and you'd think it would be relatively easy to distribute them by regional cases level. Therefore whilst manufacturing more tests than any other nation (over 10m population) you wouldn't expect to see shortages even now. Yesterday I believe just under 300,000 tests were administered with 6000 positive cases. That means 2% of people being tested were carrying the virus; I'd expect that number to be quite a bit higher, given you assume the tests are focused to a good degree on symptomatic people.

The stats don’t back up your fearful population theory at all. If the Uk was over-testing it would have a tiny % of positive results. Instead they’re considerably higher than Germany.

Combine this with the data published yesterday, showing 18% compliance with quarantine and 11% compliance with self-isolation after positive test (might have got those figures the wrong way round) and it looks like the UK population have been behaving in a way that is literally the exact opposite of what you’re claiming. They’ve not been fearful and compliant, they’ve been blasé and reckless. And they’re paying the price.

I'm not saying the UK is overtesting; but possibly not focusing tests on the people who should be being tested (as above 98% of tests were negative).

In terms of the self-isolation data is that not more an indication that people are exceptionally fatigued by the rules implemented over the past 6 months? Is it a contradiction to say that people are scared but they're also at mental breaking point (would also be interesting for that data to be broken down by age range)

 

[africanspur]

I don't doubt that there's also an element of "postcode lottery" in fairness. There's also the disparity between tests sent out and tests processed. I was sent a random test for example which I carried out but it was never collected. I went online for the tracking info and Hermes said it was collected (it wasn't). That must have happened to thousands of tests that were completely wasted.

Still though even a couple of weeks ago cases were relatively low (c. 3000 a day) and you'd think it would be relatively easy to distribute them by regional cases level. Therefore whilst manufacturing more tests than any other nation (over 10m population) you wouldn't expect to see shortages even now. Yesterday I believe just under 300,000 tests were administered with 6000 positive cases. That means 2% of people being tested were carrying the virus; I'd expect that number to be quite a bit higher, given you assume the tests are focused to a good degree on symptomatic people.

The tests are definitely already being redistributed secondary to need (we have less testing in London at the moment for example, as the hotspots have moved north) and this may present a problem as the increase in cases becomes more nationwide again.

But I think you're pointing out some of thr problems with taking the figures at face value yourself. You were sent a test which the government are probably counting as a 'processed test' but is either sitting somewhere in your home or in a landfill somewhere now. I wonder how

What the above means by the way in real terms in some hospitals in London is that swabs which previously came back within a few hours, at the very max 24 hours are often now taking much longer, sometimes 2-3 days. This is an unacceptable delay in the acute setting where we have to make decisions based on side rooms and isolation/cohorting etc.

I can't help but feel that the government have messed up the time window they had to get this right the second time round.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I don't doubt that there's also an element of "postcode lottery" in fairness. There's also the disparity between tests sent out and tests processed. I was sent a random test for example which I carried out but it was never collected. I went online for the tracking info and Hermes said it was collected (it wasn't). That must have happened to thousands of tests that were completely wasted.

Still though even a couple of weeks ago cases were relatively low (c. 3000 a day) and you'd think it would be relatively easy to distribute them by regional cases level. Therefore whilst manufacturing more tests than any other nation (over 10m population) you wouldn't expect to see shortages even now. Yesterday I believe just under 300,000 tests were administered with 6000 positive cases. That means 2% of people being tested were carrying the virus; I'd expect that number to be quite a bit higher, given you assume the tests are focused to a good degree on symptomatic people.

In my opinion and it's the same opinion as Andy Burnham (mayor of GM) the big problem with testing is how centralised many aspects of it are. Burnham has been calling for autonomy for GM through track and trace etc. Too many aspects of the system have to be signed off by Westminster (Cummings himself people speculate) and it's causing massive inefficiency because the scale required is too big. Germany is divided into 16 federal states with lots of devolved power so each state can run it's own testing system catering to the specific needs of their populations.

 

[Tony Babangida]

There has been a huge upsurge in this sort of report in the last few days https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

Isn't this the mutation that we have known about since April?

Yeah it is. Same old shoddy reporting calling it a new strain. Verdict still out on whether it’s definitely more transmissible.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't doubt that there's also an element of "postcode lottery" in fairness. There's also the disparity between tests sent out and tests processed. I was sent a random test for example which I carried out but it was never collected. I went online for the tracking info and Hermes said it was collected (it wasn't). That must have happened to thousands of tests that were completely wasted.

Still though even a couple of weeks ago cases were relatively low (c. 3000 a day) and you'd think it would be relatively easy to distribute them by regional cases level. Therefore whilst manufacturing more tests than any other nation (over 10m population) you wouldn't expect to see shortages even now. Yesterday I believe just under 300,000 tests were administered with 6000 positive cases. That means 2% of people being tested were carrying the virus; I'd expect that number to be quite a bit higher, given you assume the tests are focused to a good degree on symptomatic people.



I'm not saying the UK is overtesting; but possibly not focusing tests on the people who should be being tested (as above 98% of tests were negative).

In terms of the self-isolation data is that not more an indication that people are exceptionally fatigued by the rules implemented over the past 6 months? Is it a contradiction to say that people are scared but they're also at mental breaking point (would also be interesting for that data to be broken down by age range)

Positivity rate in UK is currently 2.5%. It should ideally be less than half that. Currently <1% in Germany. So we can categorically say that the UK population is not getting too many tests.

You’re moving the goal posts re compliance. You were initially implying that the UK population was/is uniquely over-compliant. Now you’re saying they were over-compliant during lockdown and this has caused a uniquely dramatic rebound phenomenon of under-compliance. This makes no sense. Almost every European country went through a lockdown. Many of them considerably more strict than in the UK. Almost of these countries are experiencing a second wave. If there is a rebound happening it’s not unique to the UK. I do think the second wave is being driven by people being too hasty to return to normality but this is clearly a global phenomenon and the degree of compliance will vary from country to country - due to cultural differences and varying clarity of messaging from their government - but will be consistent throughout the pandemic.

I do think that the Dominic Cumming factor might be behind a mass throwing up of hands and subsequent lack of compliance in the Uk. Which would be unique. But that’s just a theory. Very difficult to find any evidence.

 

[Smores]

In my opinion and it's the same opinion as Andy Burnham (mayor of GM) the big problem with testing is how centralised many aspects of it are. Burnham has been calling for autonomy for GM through track and trace etc. Too many aspects of the system have to be signed off by Westminster (Cummings himself people speculate) and it's causing massive inefficiency because the scale required is too big. Germany is divided into 16 federal states with lots of devolved power so each state can run it's own testing system catering to the specific needs of their populations.

I dare say it's about channelling the money in certain directions. Usually the government love to pass the buck onto local authorities but for some reason they're really resistant this time despite it being a topic they're (rightly) taking flak on.

 

[finneh]

The tests are definitely already being redistributed secondary to need (we have less testing in London at the moment for example, as the hotspots have moved north) and this may present a problem as the increase in cases becomes more nationwide again.

But I think you're pointing out some of thr problems with taking the figures at face value yourself. You were sent a test which the government are probably counting as a 'processed test' but is either sitting somewhere in your home or in a landfill somewhere now. I wonder how

What the above means by the way in real terms in some hospitals in London is that swabs which previously came back within a few hours, at the very max 24 hours are often now taking much longer, sometimes 2-3 days. This is an unacceptable delay in the acute setting where we have to make decisions based on side rooms and isolation/cohorting etc.

I can't help but feel that the government have messed up the time window they had to get this right the second time round.

The question was with no other country manufacturing or processing as many tests per capita as the UK; how are we getting it so wrong?

In my opinion and it's the same opinion as Andy Burnham (mayor of GM) the big problem with testing is how centralised many aspects of it are. Burnham has been calling for autonomy for GM through track and trace etc. Too many aspects of the system have to be signed off by Westminster (Cummings himself people speculate) and it's causing massive inefficiency because the scale required is too big. Germany is divided into 16 federal states with lots of devolved power so each state can run it's own testing system catering to the specific needs of their populations.

I agree fully that we're far too centralised as a country; in fact I think that is true in general and not just in relation to Covid. We have far to many decisions being made in London and far too few being delegated to the regions.

Positivity rate in UK is currently 2.5%. It should ideally be less than half that. Currently <1% in Germany. So we can categorically say that the UK population is not getting too many tests.

You’re moving the goal posts re compliance. You were initially implying that the UK population was/is uniquely over-compliant. Now you’re saying they were over-compliant during lockdown and this has caused a uniquely dramatic rebound phenomenon of under-compliance. This makes no sense. Almost every European country went through a lockdown. Many of them considerably more strict than in the UK. Almost of these countries are experiencing a second wave. If there is a rebound happening it’s not unique to the UK. I do think the second wave is being driven by people being too hasty to return to normality but this is clearly a global phenomenon and the degree of compliance will vary from country to country - due to cultural differences and varying clarity of messaging from their government - but will be consistent throughout the pandemic.

I do think that the Dominic Cumming factor might be behind a mass throwing up of hands and subsequent lack of compliance in the Uk. Which would be unique. But that’s just a theory. Very difficult to find any evidence.

That's interesting in the positivity rate; I'm assuming that's over the last fortnight and not the 3-4 weeks beforehand? Given that we were testing 50% more but showing a similar caseload at that point?

To clarify I wasn't saying that the population of the UK were uniquely compliant and have transformed into being uniquely non-compliant. What we're seeing across the UK is matched in several other EU countries with similar strategies (hard, lengthy lockdown) as you state.

The point I was making was that if testing in the UK is as shambolic as it's being made out to be; how does that correlate with the UK manufacturing/distributing more tests than anyone else?

Surely the only way that testing could be shambolic in that environment is either a) if we're testing the wrong people (somewhat disproven by your 2.5% stat being greater than others); or b) if the tests aren't being distributed equitably according to need?

Either that or UK testing is actually doing well comparatively to similar countries such as France and Spain (not Germany).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The question was with no other country manufacturing or processing as many tests per capita as the UK; how are we getting it so wrong?



I agree fully that we're far too centralised as a country; in fact I think that is true in general and not just in relation to Covid. We have far to many decisions being made in London and far too few being delegated to the regions.


That's interesting in the positivity rate; I'm assuming that's over the last fortnight and not the 3-4 weeks beforehand? Given that we were testing 50% more but showing a similar caseload at that point?

To clarify I wasn't saying that the population of the UK were uniquely compliant and have transformed into being uniquely non-compliant. What we're seeing across the UK is matched in several other EU countries with similar strategies (hard, lengthy lockdown) as you state.

The point I was making was that if testing in the UK is as shambolic as it's being made out to be; how does that correlate with the UK manufacturing/distributing more tests than anyone else?

Surely the only way that testing could be shambolic in that environment is either a) if we're testing the wrong people (somewhat disproven by your 2.5% stat being greater than others); or b) if the tests aren't being distributed equitably according to need?

Either that or UK testing is actually doing well comparatively to similar countries such as France and Spain (not Germany).

I already answered that question. You’re testing much more than countries like Germany because you need to!

With covid deaths per capita six times higher than Germany it’s clear that the virus is considerably more prevalent in the UK than Germany. Hence even doing twice as many tests per capita is not enough and the system is under capacity for your needs. Throw in your own experience (test posted out, never used, yet still included in daily tally) and its not hard to see why there’s this big disconnect between objectively high testing numbers and a system that is barely fit for purpose.

To be fair, loads of countries are struggling with this. Testing capacity can only be increased at a linear rate. So there’s inevitably going to be a point where it can’t keep pace with a disease prevalence that is increasing exponentially. I’m sure Germany will be in the weeds soon as well, if their cases keep increasing at the current rate.

 

[finneh]

I already answered that question. You’re testing much more than countries like Germany because you need to!

Of course - my point was is the UK testing shambolic in comparison to similar countries? Germany was a similar country a few weeks ago; but for example now Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Ireland and to a lesser extent (as they're further ahead) Spain and France.

Is the UK testing situation poor when compared to countries with a similar per capita infection rate (whether that be Germany a few weeks ago or the aforementioned countries now)? If it is then I'm curious as to why given our comparatively large volume of tests.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Of course - my point was is the UK testing shambolic in comparison to similar countries? Germany was a similar country a few weeks ago; but for example now Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Ireland and to a lesser extent (as they're further ahead) Spain and France.

Is the UK testing situation poor when compared to countries with a similar per capita infection rate (whether that be Germany a few weeks ago or the aforementioned countries now)? If it is then I'm curious as to why given our comparatively large volume of tests.

I’ve no idea. The general theme coming out of most countries seems to be unhappiness with testing. I just don’t think it’s possible to get the testing piece right when cases are spreading as rapidly as they are in most European countries. What does seem unique to the Uk (as far as I know?) are these home testing kits getting posted out and your own experience of same.

 

[finneh]

I’ve no idea. The general theme coming out of most countries seems to be unhappiness with testing. I just don’t think it’s possible to get the testing piece right when cases are spreading as rapidly as they are in most European countries. What does seem unique to the Uk (as far as I know?) are these home testing kits getting posted out and your own experience of same.

Fair enough. It does seem weird though that even a few weeks ago when the UK was similar to Germany in terms of daily cases but with much greater volumes of tests that their system was being lauded whilst the UK's was being trashed. Like you say I do wonder of the stats in relation to tests manufactured vs tests actually processed; although it would be absurd to think the % is higher than low single digits (if not then surely a simple "easy win" would be to tackle this rather than constantly talking about capacity).

 

[Pagh Wraith]

I’m really confused by that too. As per a tweet higher up the page, Germany has set up walk-in testing centres at train stations where the staff encourage commuters to have a test if they can spare the time. No queues. Results on the same day, via the covid app everyone has on their phone. Meanwhile in the Uk people are being asked to drive hours from their home because the testing system is so overwhelmed.

Not sure how true that is in reality. I don't have the app granted, but I didn't get my result on the same day (got it roughly 30 hours after the test) . Also I had to go to the airport to have my test done. One day after I had come back into the country as they're only open from 4 to 8. And there was no test centre at the train station where my ride dropped me off. Although I think it would been possible to get tested directly at the border along the motorway. And there was a very long queue indeed.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not sure how true that is in reality. I don't have the app granted, but I didn't get my result on the same day (got it roughly 30 hours after the test) . Also I had to go to the airport to have my test done. One day after I had come back into the country as they're only open from 4 to 8. And there was no test centre at the train station where my ride dropped me off. Although I think it would been possible to get tested directly at the border along the motorway. And there was a very long queue indeed.

Interesting. I was basing that on a tweet from someone visiting Nuremberg (see below) I know Germany has a lot of regional variation in how the pandemic is being handled, so this could be an example of that.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Interesting. I was basing that on a tweet from someone visiting Nuremberg (see below) I know Germany has a lot of regional variation in how the pandemic is being handled, so this could be an example of that.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Yeah, there is a lot of regional variation. Bavaria is the region most badly hit whereas where I live we have an incidence of like 4 per 100,000 and hardly any restrictions. So that may have something to do with it.

 

[F-Red]

Surely the only way that testing could be shambolic in that environment is either a) if we're testing the wrong people (somewhat disproven by your 2.5% stat being greater than others); or b) if the tests aren't being distributed equitably according to need?

The department for health & social care said the recent increase in case demand, it turned out that around 25% of the tests were people who had no symptoms at all and shouldn't be coming forward for a test. Which would correlate with the re-opening of schools, the current cold going around educational places (my sister in laws school had two classes sent home because of the cold, thinking it was covid), and people getting the test just so they declare they're negative and carry on with their daily life.

There's no issue with the reagent availability, it's all down to lab processing at the minute.

 

[jojojo]

The department for health & social care said the recent increase in case demand, it turned out that around 25% of the tests were people who had no symptoms at all and shouldn't be coming forward for a test. Which would correlate with the re-opening of schools, the current cold going around educational places (my sister in laws school had two classes sent home because of the cold, thinking it was covid), and people getting the test just so they declare they're negative and carry on with their daily life.

There's no issue with the reagent availability, it's all down to lab processing at the minute.

I must admit I'm curious about that 25% business. I'd love to see the details of that survey they did. Given how testing has been done in the high risk areas (with walk in centres in some locations), employer requested testing (for key workers) and the ones who tried for a test repeatedly over several days before finally getting one - a lot of the people being tested are expected to be asymptomatic, or to have what are now the wrong symptoms for eligibility for testing (given that "fatigue" was part of the list mentioned by Hancock earlier in the summer, back when they had more tests available and fewer takers). There are also NHS requested tests for those planned to go into hospital for surgery or other treatment.

I just wonder if the survey methodology actually took all those "others" out of the survey group before giving us the headline figure. Maybe I'm being cynical, but having looked at the government's use of dubious statistical headlines, covid or otherwise, I'd still like to know more about exactly how that 25% was derived. Are we talking about 25% of available tests, or 25% of Pillar2, or 25% of Pillar2 minus those tests requested by employers, walk-in centres, health or home care provider requests, and those who had symptoms on the day they requested a test.

 

[Brwned]

I wonder whether to a degree it plays into the study that showed the UK populace as one of the most fearful of the virus? The more terrified a country is the more I could see the population wanting to be tested for the mildest of symptoms or even wanting to be tested simply because a contact is showing mild symptoms.

According to this, the majority of people in the UK aren't fearful of catching the virus, and it's been that way since June. The most fearful point was at the end of March, just following lockdown, where 61% were worried about catching the virus. At that point only 7 of the 29 countries were less fearful. At this point only 5 countries are less fearful than the UK. That tracks pretty well with the fact that up until August, the UK were in the bottom quintile of countries for wearing masks, washing their hands more frequently, avoiding physical contact etc.

Germany were also in the bottom quintile on all of these, but given the comparative risk level in the two countries, the UK are proportionately much less fearful. Probably the best evidence of the lack of fear is this:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

If people were overly scared, the majority of people who have symptoms and the majority of people that told by the NHS they were at high risk of contracting the virus would have self-isolated. That's what you would expect if they were appropriately scared, never mind too scared.

 

[Stactix]

I don't doubt that there's also an element of "postcode lottery" in fairness. There's also the disparity between tests sent out and tests processed. I was sent a random test for example which I carried out but it was never collected. I went online for the tracking info and Hermes said it was collected (it wasn't). That must have happened to thousands of tests that were completely wasted.

Still though even a couple of weeks ago cases were relatively low (c. 3000 a day) and you'd think it would be relatively easy to distribute them by regional cases level. Therefore whilst manufacturing more tests than any other nation (over 10m population) you wouldn't expect to see shortages even now. Yesterday I believe just under 300,000 tests were administered with 6000 positive cases. That means 2% of people being tested were carrying the virus; I'd expect that number to be quite a bit higher, given you assume the tests are focused to a good degree on symptomatic people.



I'm not saying the UK is overtesting; but possibly not focusing tests on the people who should be being tested (as above 98% of tests were negative).

In terms of the self-isolation data is that not more an indication that people are exceptionally fatigued by the rules implemented over the past 6 months? Is it a contradiction to say that people are scared but they're also at mental breaking point (would also be interesting for that data to be broken down by age range)

One thing to bare in mind is how many of those tests are done on unique people.
They've stopped putting the numbers out now I think but when they did, it was like 2 tests per person or at a 3 for 2 ratio.
Faintly recall one day, 150k tests were done and only 60k ish people were tested.
Have to double check but its definetly miles off the total number of tests.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Would be interested to hear how they got that data?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

It might be worth another thread as it will derail this one but just quickly imo the covid response from Britain is the end result of decades of thatcherism.

Had Labour won the last election(They basically wanted to update Britain to a similar level of the Germans)we would have maybe seen a slightly less shit result because the reality is the British state simply doesn't have the required tools no matter who's in charge to deal with a pandemic like covid.

Decades of stripping back the social contract, destroying collective power, building an economy based on assets prices and cheap service labour all to be managed by coked up inbred eton cartoons is going to produce some awful results.


Agree that seems to be at least one of the turning points, would be interesting to see if there any data to back this up.


'Economics are the method: the object is to change the soul'.

Totally agree. Although I don't think there was enough time for Labour to turn the ship around between December and March.

The Tories have had 10 years to do so.

 

[Sweet Square]

I think you're over thinking it somewhat. It call be easily linked to exercise Cygnus back in 2016, if they had implemented the recommendations then we wouldn't be in the situation we find ourselves now.

Possibly but then I guess you would have to ask why didn't they didn't implement the recommendations.

According to this, the majority of people in the UK aren't fearful of catching the virus, and it's been that way since June. The most fearful point was at the end of March, just following lockdown, where 61% were worried about catching the virus. At that point only 7 of the 29 countries were less fearful. At this point only 5 countries are less fearful than the UK. That tracks pretty well with the fact that up until August, the UK were in the bottom quintile of countries for wearing masks, washing their hands more frequently, avoiding physical contact etc.

Germany were also in the bottom quintile on all of these, but given the comparative risk level in the two countries, the UK are proportionately much less fearful. Probably the best evidence of the lack of fear is this:



If people were overly scared, the majority of people who have symptoms and the majority of people that told by the NHS they were at high risk of contracting the virus would have self-isolated. That's what you would expect if they were appropriately scared, never mind too scared.

good post. It really seem like no one gives a shit anymore over here.

Totally agree. Although I don't think there was enough time for Labour to turn the ship around between December and March.

The Tories have had 10 years to do so.

Oh yeah agree with you here.

 

[Wolverine]

Some major themes from my time doing general practice in inner city practice with 10s of thousands of patients

People haven't a clue regarding government guidelines, the vast majority do not. I mean perhaps its the ones just calling in but there are some from a high SE background as well with high paying jobs and they are not clued in regarding testing criteria. They think anything "mild" isn't covid. I think there's just something about being told a virus that'll kill your grandma people don't see themselves having if it its "just a cough". Ironically we are getting many denying coughs or temperatures (when they initially tell us they do) when subsequently tell them about isolation. Serious comms issue I think.

Also flu vaccine demand is fairly unprecedented in terms of enquiries which is good news, I think uptake will be decent. Logistically challenging though with social restrictions in place and also supply chain issues.

Winter is not going to be easy.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Some major themes from my time doing general practice in inner city practice with 10s of thousands of patients

People haven't a clue regarding government guidelines, the vast majority do not. I mean perhaps its the ones just calling in but there are some from a high SE background as well with high paying jobs and they are not clued in regarding testing criteria. They think anything "mild" isn't covid. I think there's just something about being told a virus that'll kill your grandma people don't see themselves having if it its "just a cough". Ironically we are getting many denying coughs or temperatures (when they initially tell us they do) when subsequently tell them about isolation. Serious comms issue I think.

Also flu vaccine demand is fairly unprecedented in terms of enquiries which is good news, I think uptake will be decent. Logistically challenging though with social restrictions in place and also supply chain issues.

Winter is not going to be easy.

I posted about this yesterday. Primary care in Ireland has been told to expect two thirds the quantity of vaccine they got for the last season, one month later than usual. Because of a “global supply shortage”. Any signs of that with you guys?

Re the confusion over testing and isolation that’s a huge problem for everyone. Especially with kids. Irish health service tried to release some clarifying guidance to stop people demanding tests for kids with minor URTIs but with such a range of symptoms talked about in the media (including asymptomatic cases) you can’t blame people for assuming every virus is covid. The symptom I find hardest to interpret is a sore throat. Should every family that has a kid with a sore throat (and no other signs/symptoms) all be self-isolating until the kid is completely symptom free?

 

[finneh]

The department for health & social care said the recent increase in case demand, it turned out that around 25% of the tests were people who had no symptoms at all and shouldn't be coming forward for a test. Which would correlate with the re-opening of schools, the current cold going around educational places (my sister in laws school had two classes sent home because of the cold, thinking it was covid), and people getting the test just so they declare they're negative and carry on with their daily life.

There's no issue with the reagent availability, it's all down to lab processing at the minute.

This is what I assumed but the positive test rate is 2.5% as previously stated which is higher certainly than Germany. I'd like to know the positive test % in comparative countries like Austria, Ireland, Netherlands and Portugal. Or the positive test rate in Germany vs UK at the end of August when case numbers were similar.

Whilst 2.5% is apparently quite high surely counter-intuitively we want a high % as every positive test provides additional data as to community transmission whereas every negative test tells us... Very little.

One thing to bare in mind is how many of those tests are done on unique people.
They've stopped putting the numbers out now I think but when they did, it was like 2 tests per person or at a 3 for 2 ratio.
Faintly recall one day, 150k tests were done and only 60k ish people were tested.
Have to double check but its definetly miles off the total number of tests.

That's a good point in fairness. If the UK are focusing a higher proportion of tests on the same "at risk" people then it's arguable that "depriving" the general population of tests in order for care homes, hospital staff and vulnerable people to have regular tests might be an understandable compromise.

Especially if only 20% of people are isolating... Why "waste" testing capacity testing a fit and healthy millennial like me who has a high chance to ignore the result anyway; when you could focus it on the key workers and vulnerable people who will take a positive result more seriously. Certainly if tests are "free" anyway.

I suppose the counter point would be the wider a variety of people are tested the more you can understand and prevent community transmission.

I wonder whether something like a small £5 delivery charge for a test for those not at risk / aren't key workers could assist somewhat. Something that simple might repress asymptomatic demand.

Would probably be politically suicidal though.

 

[lynchie]

Would be interested to hear how they got that data?

You can follow the link, it's actually quite interesting. it's all self-reported behaviour, from a survey of over 30k people, so likely to be representative.

 

[lynchie]

This is what I assumed but the positive test rate is 2.5% as previously stated which is higher certainly than Germany. I'd like to know the positive test % in comparative countries like Austria, Ireland, Netherlands and Portugal. Or the positive test rate in Germany vs UK at the end of August when case numbers were similar.

Whilst 2.5% is apparently quite high surely counter-intuitively we want a high % as every positive test provides additional data as to community transmission whereas every negative test tells us... Very little.



That's a good point in fairness. If the UK are focusing a higher proportion of tests on the same "at risk" people then it's arguable that "depriving" the general population of tests in order for care homes, hospital staff and vulnerable people to have regular tests might be an understandable compromise.

Especially if only 20% of people are isolating... Why "waste" testing capacity testing a fit and healthy millennial like me who has a high chance to ignore the result anyway; when you could focus it on the key workers and vulnerable people who will take a positive result more seriously. Certainly if tests are "free" anyway.

I suppose the counter point would be the wider a variety of people are tested the more you can understand and prevent community transmission.

I wonder whether something like a small £5 delivery charge for a test for those not at risk / aren't key workers could assist somewhat. Something that simple might repress asymptomatic demand.

Would probably be politically suicidal though.

Stats on individuals being tested are released weekly. https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...virus-testing-uk-10-september-to-16-september

That shows that around 3% of people tested were positive.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is what I assumed but the positive test rate is 2.5% as previously stated which is higher certainly than Germany. I'd like to know the positive test % in comparative countries like Austria, Ireland, Netherlands and Portugal. Or the positive test rate in Germany vs UK at the end of August when case numbers were similar.

Whilst 2.5% is apparently quite high surely counter-intuitively we want a high % as every positive test provides additional data as to community transmission whereas every negative test tells us... Very little.

Absolutely not. Positive cases do give us vital information so the primary goal of testing is to miss as few as possible. The higher the positivity % the more cases are being missed. And missed cases are petrol on the fire.

 

[Wolverine]

I posted about this yesterday. Primary care in Ireland has been told to expect two thirds the quantity of vaccine they got for the last season, one month later than usual. Because of a “global supply shortage”. Any signs of that with you guys?

Re the confusion over testing and isolation that’s a huge problem for everyone. Especially with kids. Irish health service tried to release some clarifying guidance to stop people demanding tests for kids with minor URTIs but with such a range of symptoms talked about in the media (including asymptomatic cases) you can’t blame people for assuming every virus is covid. The symptom I find hardest to interpret is a sore throat. Should every family that has a kid with a sore throat (and no other signs/symptoms) all be self-isolating until the kid is completely symptom free?

Flu vaccines here will be started next Monday - before Lloyds and Boots used to offer it to under 65s if requested by patients but now will no longer do that. Presently its over 65s and the unders with certain medical conditions

Was a huge shit show last year where there was about a month where we ran out for nearly two to three weeks due to supply issues, NHS England are confident stocks will last but others less so. You'd think they'd have known the importance to get their stocks in order given that primary care physicians were warning of implications of a shortage for ages.

There's more here if you fancy a read. No idea where the issue is with regards to supply chain
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54273172

Kids have the nasal flu vaccine. Here that's for 2-17 year olds or 6 months to 2 years with certain medical conditions. That one the uptake is never really that great. Biggest issue being lack of marketing resources compared to adult flu vaccine and the fact that it also has pork gelatine which Public Health England has told Muslim GPs who've campaigned for alternatives on behalf of members of their communities (also vegetarian, vegan, Jewish members) that its use as a preservative/stabiliser means an alternative may never come. We'll see how the uptake will be more that this year.

For us over here its any temp 37.8 or above, new persistent cough or worsening of previous cough, lack of smell or taste. Sore throat in of itself isn't an indication for covid test/isolation over here.

Annoyingly over here 111 gives inconsistent advice regarding URTI sx from the parents we've spoken to who're implying that any temperature attributed to ear infection or URTI need not get tested or isolate but that's explicitly not the case according to government guidelines. So we're having temps attributed to barn door cellulitis or urinary tract infection who we are advising to get tested and isolate due to there being documented cases of concomitant covid (relatively asymptomatic) with other presentations

 

[Fluctuation0161]

You can follow the link, it's actually quite interesting. it's all self-reported behaviour, from a survey of over 30k people, so likely to be representative.

Cheers. Just reading now. n = 2000 with 21 surveys over a few months. So fairly comprehensive at first glance, depending on how they found the subjects.

 

[redshaw]

UK 6874 cases and 34 deaths

 

[lsd]

UK 6874 cases and 34 deaths

34 deaths ? Damm it is going to go back into the 100s a day isn't it ?

 

[balaks]

34 deaths ? Damm it is going to go back into the 100s a day isn't it ?

Unfortunately it is inevitable - it's doubling every 8 days at the moment so we could be there within next 3 weeks.

 

[Wumminator]

My mum works at a school with 21 people off. She’s above 60. Her TA went off today and they’ve been sharing stuff all week. Confirmed case for the ta. She’s not allowed to isolate.

 

[redshaw]

New restrictions for Leeds, Blackpool, Stockport and Wigan

"People who live in these areas will not be allowed to gather in a private dwelling or garden with any other household unless in a support bubble.

"People from anywhere else will also not be allowed to gather with another household in a private dwelling or garden in these areas."

34 deaths ? Damm it is going to go back into the 100s a day isn't it ?

Looking like it. Spain averaging 100 deaths a day so we'll catch up soon.

Today's 34 deaths excludes Scotland due to power outage up there

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My mum works at a school with 21 people off. She’s above 60. Her TA went off today and they’ve been sharing stuff all week. Confirmed case for the ta. She’s not allowed to isolate.

Jaysus. Sorry to hear it. Purely based on personal experience it does seem like there’s a hell of a lot of non-covid viruses doing the rounds. They’re dropping like flies at my kid’s school but no positive tests yet. Hopefully just more of the same at your mum’s school.

EDIT. Never mind. Didn’t notice TA was confirmed case. FFS.

 

[Jericholyte2]

My mum works at a school with 21 people off. She’s above 60. Her TA went off today and they’ve been sharing stuff all week. Confirmed case for the ta. She’s not allowed to isolate.

Then she surely needs to get her union rep on that! If she's been in close contact continually then she needs to the isolating and tested, no matter the current staffing shortages.

 

[vanthaman]

34 deaths ? Damm it is going to go back into the 100s a day isn't it ?

they'll keep going up because we are testing more and more. remember there are thousands of asymptomatic people in the positive test and the death counts.

 

[Smores]

they'll keep going up because we are testing more and more. remember there are thousands of asymptomatic people in the positive test and the death counts.

We've always been testing more and more nearly week on week and our numbers didn't keep going up did they?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

My mum works at a school with 21 people off. She’s above 60. Her TA went off today and they’ve been sharing stuff all week. Confirmed case for the ta. She’s not allowed to isolate.

Why is she not allowed to isolate?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

My ex girlfriends brother died recently of Covid. Age 31. No underlying health conditions.

Certainly a stark reminder.